₦airaland Forum

buchilla:
Please, if you are from Ebonyi State can you predict what percentage of Votes Peter Obi will score.? People are saying that Obi will not do well there because of Umahi.

I am not from there but we did some census/contract/nysc et al stuff there. The people are great, mostly closely related to Cross river people in terms of ancestry (not entirely true for all) but anything you see in Ebonyi in terms of voting will be replicated in Cross river

** Ebonyi have a cunny governor. He closed the secondary schools and ordered school principals to direct their students to the Ebonyi stadium to receive Tinubu even civil servants signed attendance in the stadium that day. Dave is smart and tricky. His yes means no and his no means yes. He's not a man you hold by his words. Obi is winning Ebonyi landslide, forget garfield1, he has wishful thinking. Dave isn't sure of senate, APC caused serious crisis in Afikpo south, presently Ivo, onitcha, Afikpo north are not within his reach. The ezza people already have their hown candidate, while izzi are strongly obidient cos in their land lies the state capital. But the governorship election will be tough though

garfield1:
That is what I am saying.becsuse se votes is small,they can have a higher turnout percentage than sw but sw will still record more votes.sw has 18 mil voters,se has 10 mil so you see,you obi has a problem.
In 2015,se votes was 2.6 mil while sw was 4.5.from my calculation,se votes will not exceed 3 million while sw will record at least 5 mil

Please kindly refer to the 2023 elections voters registration by zone. When you remove Lagos southeast is beating southwest with a million or there about votes. And having high voter registration doesn't translate to turnout. Southwest without Lagos doesn't match southeast voting strength and don't forget you're comparing five states to six states

* Kindly illustrate how you did the calculations

Again how will Umahi and hope snatch ballot box when their brother is contesting while Seyi and Adeleke won't?

garfield1:
The pdp is divided and I heard anyim is supporting him.he has intimidated and bullied Linus okorie with ebubeagu so that one will not be a problem.ama nnachi is a small fry.he was a failure until umahi singlehandedly made him a senator.umahi dominates ivo,ohaozara and onicha,their votes outweigh afikpo votes.igariwey isn't going for senate..ifeanyi odii is a small boy and I heard umahi sponsored him to divide pdp votes and obinna ogba chances

Yes in ebonyi central chinedu ogah is very popular in ikwo.ex gov elechi is from there and buhari won ikwo in 2019.I believe tinubu will win ikwo too...
In ebonyi north,I believe the izzis will vote massively for apc from top to bottom since apc gave them senate and guber ticket.

Stay on the topic "ballot snatching" so, Umahi will snatch ballot to disenfranchise chinedu ogah, will snatch ballot to disenfranchise Sam egwu, will snatch ballot box to disenfranchise idu, Linus, nnachi et al in their strong hold? How can he snatch ballot box in Ebonyi north and central were the men there are more power hungry than him. The people will vote and the people will win

garfield1:
There was a rerun in aba federal constituency after ossy prestige died and irev was used.ikpeazu useless candidate won in an apga area....apc has won most elections conducted with bvas.hope candidate won in ngor okpala with bvas

That's the error on your part. The peoples vote count and a candidate of the people won and not ikpeazu candidate. So, I'm the southeast and the southsouth the candidate of the people will still win whether he is Obasanjo or Tinubu's candidate. The people will still win

garfield1:
Umahi is the strongest apc candidate in ebonyi.most of tinubu votes will come from his district.

Have you heard of chinedu ogah of the APC? Umahi's suppose district is where Anyim Pius Anyim comes from, Ifeanyichukwu odii comes from, hama nnachi comes from, his tormentor the labour party senate guy comes from, idu igariway or something comes from, his ohaozara when compared to onicha LGA don't have enough voting strength. What can poor Umahi do, even odii of PDP and FON doesn't campaign for their principles. If only you know how tricky Dave is. Don't forget his popular saying "is only God that promises and not fail"

garfield1:
Obi's lead is reducing.it was over 10% in sept Oct.by election eve,it will further reduce.
The undecided voters are mainly in nw/ne/sw and won't go for obi obviously.se ss has the fewest numbers of undecided and undisclosed.obi is leading in se/ss which usually records low turnout and has a small voting population.ipob activities will further reduce it.
I think anap polls will be significant.buhari led pdp by over 10%.

Voters turn out for 2015 election as obtained from research gate. The game changer is the total participation of southeasterners and the undiluted support of the Southsoutherners. They is this saying by kanu which is resonate it goes like this "the people are IPOB and IPOB are the people"

garfield1:
Sentiments is different from elections.abia hated ikpeazu

Without IREV and BVAS! anyone can win because the said structure becomes supreme cos rigging and not politics in Nigeria is local

garfield1:
Vote buying happens everywhere afterall crowds were rented for smaller fees in se.
Sw turnout is always higher than se...ipob didnt declare but the recent activities reduced turnout

You have a weird thought pattern. Crowd renting procedure is entirely different from vote buying procedure. You won't be there to watch them vote. Again poverty indices in southeast and southwest are very low when compared to other region. You may not understand IPOB, I don't think they're folish enough to declare sit at home even pro IPOB people are voting in this election and I think you should be bothered about it

garfield1:
He will cause it in ebonyi north and central.if ebonyi south vote massively for obi,it might favour the lp candidate so umahi will prevent that

How will he cause ballot snatching there, does it mean that APC doesn't have senatorial candidates and house of rep candidates in your Ebonyi central and North or Tinubu doesn't have voters there too?

garfield1:
The snatching will occur in some units.it will be enough for tinubu to overcome the three percent.they will also be vote buying.don't forget ipob will declare seatvat home

Did IPOB declare sit at home during Anambra state elections? Check again I don't think se/SW are considered poor according to the Nigerian statistics. Vote buying can hardly occur in the South, maybe obtainable in the north certainly not in the South. Don't forget osun

**Check southwest normally have voter apathy and are not know for bloc votes (though Tinubu is our son, I expect some differences)

There's always a time in a man's life that his decisions and indecisions will come hunting him. No matter how smart a politician is there's this one mistake that ruins him and brings him down to his feet.

Case study of Muslim-muslim ticket and wike's attitude

Hunger wants you to lose the election

Ennoloa:
Adeleke is a goner

This is situation room analysis when election was out

Votes was higher than accredited votes

He knows he is a goner if APC wins Federal level so he is actively going to work against APC on Election Day if before he doesn’t want that

Maybe I give this my attention later. Certainly not here
Shalom

garfield1:
If tinubu loses votes in osun and obi loses in imo and ebonyi,who is winning?

Atiku needs 7% to catch up with Obi and 4% to catch up with Tinubu. Since, Obi and Tinubu are indigenous of the supposed area the losing of vote as you wish will occur and with all variable being constant, and with your proposition as ballot snatching what it translates is Obi's victory because ballot snatching won't occur in all the polling units, and even if it happens in all the polling units the election will be annulled and fresh election conducted with heavy security. This is the 21st century

Ennoloa:
Those spies would vote for PO … hehe

They feel after this election

Labour Party would be know in the SE and they are one of the top members

In summary Hope has a lot to lose if he go against the will of the people which is Peter Obi

Adeleke has nothing to lose if he goes against Tinubu as he right leg is already out of that seat

Whether Tinubu wins or loses Adeleke is retaining his seat. Don't wanna derail the conversation though

garfield1:
People hate him but apc is winning most elections there.he sent spies to labour party.hope is smart and a crook,he knows how to do things

Again how do someone who the people hate win election? You see why I said your thought pattern is weird

garfield1:
Dave is going to the senate so tinubu will affect him.if tinubu loses,hope will likely lose

By him causing ballot snatching as you wish, don't you think that he will also lose vote since according to you he is favorite to win the Senate moreover, both the Senate and presidential elections are holding simultaneously?

** Again what's the correlation between Dave going to the Senate and Dave reducing Peter Obi votes?

garfield1:
Adeleke is a learner na.assuming he is brutal,it is only in osun and it will favour atiku not obi.in east,apc are in imo and ebonyi so you see,obi still loses.

Favouring Atiku is good for Obi's victory, check the statistics again. Tinubu losing votes favours obi, take a look at the statistics again (26, 23, 19 % for Obi, Tinubu and Atiku respectively)

garfield1:
Makinde is working for tinubu.Ade can do that but not effectively like umahi and co

Wishfully you want Dave and Hope to be people of "the party is supreme" while Seyi and Adeleke will be "my brother is supreme" you see why I said you have a weird thought pattern?

garfield1:
No matter what he does,tinubu will win osun.he is not brutal or violent the wat umahi and hope are

In your mind Adeleke can't be brutal even when his reelection is threatened? But Dave who has completed his 2nd tenure can be brutal for no reason whatsoever?

garfield1:
Is adeleke working for obi? He is still mourning his loss plus he can't work for obi na.makinde is pro Tinubu

I think we are discussing reducing the other candidates votes through ballot snatching. So, whether he is working for Obi or not, reducing Obi's vote through ballot snatching is what you proposed (wishfully) for Dave and Hope. so my question is can't Adeleke and Seyi cos Ballot snatching in the southwest to reduce Tinubu's vote since they're in the opposition. Moreover, it's very paramount presently for Adeleke to work against Tinubu's victory

garfield1:
I dont wish so but those men have the tendencies for that

And Adeleke and Makinde don't have the tendency to do so against APC?

07kjb:
Your mates are clamouring for good governance and you are here talking of ballot snatching
Men de match out with KALA on 25th make una put body that day

Anyone that attempt ballot snatching in the SE/SS may be burnt to death... I think those people are hell bent on destroying what's left of APC. APC don show them shege

garfield1:
They can.they can snatch ballots and disrupt voting to reduce obi's margins

** You have weird thought pattern. Seriously how do you expect a sitting governor to incite violence in his own state against his own brother who has done him no wrong

*** Can Gov. Seyi makinde and Gov. Adeleke also do these things you are suggesting to Dave and Ozodima against Tinubu. Since the two southwest PDP governors are in the PDP?

Or it can only happen in the southeast because you wish so?

Tinubu loves to insult the easterners. Imagine a whole ibom republic, the entire Ibibio ethnic nationality was ridiculed by a notorious drug in the name of election campaign in their own land. Imagine your visitor whom you received with so much love calling you an ordinary house boy. God will judge any Ibibio/akwa ibomite that accepts Tinubu insults by voting for him. Enough is enough

michlins:
Please,I thought everyone is entitled to live and work anywhere in Nigeria?

What's this talk about owing Lagos and arrogating yourself the title of emperor. If this guy becomes president, that means we all turn to subjects and he will decide who will live in Nigeria or not.

If you mock him for his health, they will say you're mocking a sick person but he goes about infuriating people and demeaning them

That's a presidential candidate, that's Tinubu for you. Muslim-muslim ticket is manifesting but Yoruba Christains don't just wanna understand what awaits us if he nears power

He think the crowds are really for him to the extent of forgetting that he's far away from Lagos. He's really obsessed with crowds and people are using it to rape Lagos IGR. What a shame!!! Everyone is just deceiving him. Poor old man, imagine insulting a setting governor and to an extent the entire ibom and Ibibio nation. Hmmm!!!

AreaFada2:
PhD in Pathology? Haemoglobinopathy? Hemopathology? Haematology?

How will the hubby know to what extent the lady is affected or crisis that could arise? Do we know if the guy is a carrier and may fear their kids in the future?

Dude, I am familiar with the role out of perhaps the most advanced SCD treatment in recent decades. You may have experience with your own condition but I have seen dozens of kids suffer severely and families strained by it. Also some who hitherto managed well but had serious issues in their 30s. Unless you can honestly answer one of the above in the affirmative.

Even in climes with excellent care and ground-breaking research, it is still not done with levity.

The main issue here is the deception. Just because HIV can be managed well now is no excuse to conceal its infection from a spouse. Would you like your brother to be deceived into such a marriage, misconception or not?

Note
1) SCD is not an infections so can't be likened to HIV. it's a genetic hereditary disease Traced to the mutation involving substituting valine for glutamic acid. These substitution actually leads to what you call SCD. Sometimes it's not only valine that is substituted it may be other amino acids. So, the disease severity is mostly determined (but not always) at the gene.
2) on treatment: Gene therapy to the best of my knowledge is the only valid treatment/cure in SCD however, SCD can be managed. In the management of SCD different pathways of the disease pathophysiology is considered. That's why SCD patients are advised to take vitamin C, folic acid, B-complex, pyridoxine, zinc tablet and malaria prophylactic drugs. If any sickler uses these drugs judiciously, then, you can't really tell if he is a SCD patient or not
3) on carrier: if you have AS or AC etc. genotype then you are a carrier of the sickle cell treat. Simply means you can give birth to a sickle cell child and you can also have sickle cell crisis under reduced oxygen tension
4) Many misconception exist in SCD. Mine is to enlighten you and many others

My opinion on the subject of discuss: 1) She was wrong: you don't risk the life of others to get married. By deception the marriage is void. She is selfish too
2) If the man was at least AA, my point holds. I have met many young SS patients happily married.
3) In Africa; mortality rate are usually higher in infants so, at adulthood, the recurrence of vaso-occlusive crisis is significantly reduced to an extent that the patient may not even have crisis that's the reason the husband couldn't tell if the wife was sick or not.

AreaFada2:
True, but what of her health issues? Can they afford the care if she gets ill? And the regular blood transfusions?
Yes we should de-stigmatise illnesses and recognise improved life expectancy with good management. But it is not a journey anyone should embark on based on deception. If the guy knew, great.

Misconceptions about SS
1) not all sicklers needs transfusion.
2) not all sicklers are thin with protruding stomach
3) not all sicklers have vaso-occlusive crisis
4) life expectancy in sickle cell disease have improved tremendously over the years. Male 50-60, female 60-70.
5) on stress: not all sicklers have crisis when subjected to physical stress
6) With advances in science any sickler who is judiciously taking his medication and visit the clinics at least once in two months will look strong and healthy.

Note: I am talking from experience. I am a sickle cell patient with a PhD

Gbogbowa:
I'm yet to meet any SS patient that will not have crises until attainment of adulthood

Many. I have met two. One only knew he is SS during marriage mandatory test by the Catholic church. The second one was already through with youth service and went for mountain climbing. I have also, witnessed an AS that had sickle cell crisis, she went for the same mountain climbing.

My experience though yours may differ

ozo13:
haba.i work in the hospital and hv seen some SS with no SS facie.it isn't about fool or no fool

Sickle cell trait - includes AS but they won't understand that. They assume every sickler is thin with protruding stomach. Lol

Gbogbowa:
The person that wrote this should be an APC member,or son to somebody in Apc,the lying party,how can you marry an SS and she will not have serious health crisis during courtships,after marriage and carrying pregnancy for 9month only to discover during labor,lies

It is impossible to detect outside laboratory test. Some sicklers don't even know they're sicklers until a test is done to confirm it.

They are factors that affect the manifestation of the disease
1) phenotype
2) mean corpsular hemoglobin concentration
3) environmental factor
4) concentration of alpha and beta thalassemia
5) genotype - HbSS, HbSC, HbSArab, Hbalpha/beta thalassemia etc: each genotype have different disease manifestation

Note 1: At a higher altitude, HbAS start having painful crisis similar to sickle cell painful episodes.

Note 2: I am not a doctor nor a pharmacist nor a nurse nor a laboratory scientist. I am a patient