garfield1:


Vote buying happens everywhere afterall crowds were rented for smaller fees in se.
Sw turnout is always higher than se...ipob didnt declare but the recent activities reduced turnout

You have a weird thought pattern. Crowd renting procedure is entirely different from vote buying procedure. You won't be there to watch them vote. Again poverty indices in southeast and southwest are very low when compared to other region. You may not understand IPOB, I don't think they're folish enough to declare sit at home even pro IPOB people are voting in this election and I think you should be bothered about it

garfield1:


3% lead is too small.tinubu will easily overtake obi

Yea, you re right. The margins for this particular polls is small.

But the outcome of this elections(if we are to follow this polling results) would be determined by the significant number of "undecides" and "Non-disclosers" in the actual elections.

These 2 demographics have also consistently been high across all the scientific polls done

PS: That Obi, who basically started this race a s a virtual "independent candidate " and the one with "no structures" is still leading in these polls at this time is very very significant.

garfield1:


Sentiments is different from elections.abia hated ikpeazu

Without IREV and BVAS! anyone can win because the said structure becomes supreme cos rigging and not politics in Nigeria is local

Paulheyman:


Without IREV and BVAS! anyone can win because the said structure becomes supreme cos rigging and not politics in Nigeria is local

There was a rerun in aba federal constituency after ossy prestige died and irev was used.ikpeazu useless candidate won in an apga area....apc has won most elections conducted with bvas.hope candidate won in ngor okpala with bvas

nameo:


Yea, you re right. The margins for this particular polls is small.

But the outcome of this elections(if we are to follow this polling results) would be determined by the significant number of "undecides" and "Non-disclosers" in the actual elections.

These 2 demographics have also consistently been high across all the scientific polls done

PS: That Obi, who basically started this race a s a virtual "independent candidate " and the one with "no structures" is still leading in these polls at this time is very very significant.

Obi's lead is reducing.it was over 10% in sept Oct.by election eve,it will further reduce.
The undecided voters are mainly in nw/ne/sw and won't go for obi obviously.se ss has the fewest numbers of undecided and undisclosed.obi is leading in se/ss which usually records low turnout and has a small voting population.ipob activities will further reduce it.
I think anap polls will be significant.buhari led pdp by over 10%.

tinsel:

It is very gloomy for labour with northwest and East completely out. Tinubu strong in all the regions except South east

You still didn't read it. Tinubu is not strong in NC and SS

Paulheyman:


You have a weird thought pattern. Crowd renting procedure is entirely different from vote buying procedure. You won't be there to watch them vote. Again poverty indices in southeast and southwest are very low when compared to other region. You may not understand IPOB, I don't think they're folish enough to declare sit at home even pro IPOB people are voting in this election and I think you should be bothered about it

Ipob may not declare but their activities will certainly reduce turnout...
Crowd renting is not entirely different.it is part of the process of election.it gives you a small view of how it will be.it shows that many are ready to sell votes.see,things are hard.many in se are suffering and are ready to sell votes.se turnout is always low so I am not bothered.ekiti the smallest state in sw had more turnout than anambra the biggest state in se

Paulheyman:


How will he cause ballot snatching there, does it mean that APC doesn't have senatorial candidates and house of rep candidates in your Ebonyi central and North or Tinubu doesn't have voters there too?

Umahi is the strongest apc candidate in ebonyi.most of tinubu votes will come from his district.

garfield1:


Obi's lead is reducing.it was over 10% in sept Oct.by election eve,it will further reduce.
The undecided voters are mainly in nw/ne/sw and won't go for obi obviously.se ss has the fewest numbers of undecided and undisclosed.obi is leading in se/ss which usually records low turnout and has a small voting population.ipob activities will further reduce it.
I think anap polls will be significant.buhari led pdp by over 10%.

Voters turn out for 2015 election as obtained from research gate. The game changer is the total participation of southeasterners and the undiluted support of the Southsoutherners. They is this saying by kanu which is resonate it goes like this "the people are IPOB and IPOB are the people"

If this poll plays out exactly as this. With the undecided voters divided in the same proportion as percentage votes garnered by that party in that zone.

Then the election will go into a runoff.

But the biggest red flag for Tinubu is that the SW that should give him a landslide or even a convincing majority has the undecided and undisclosed voters tally at 35%

Even the traditional swing zone the NC has that same tally as 29%

The SW just opened up as the biggest swing zone, and is up for grabs, if PDP and LP know what's up.

Paulheyman:


Voters turn out for 2015 election as obtained from research gate

That is what I am saying.becsuse se votes is small,they can have a higher turnout percentage than sw but sw will still record more votes.sw has 18 mil voters,se has 10 mil so you see,you obi has a problem.
In 2015,se votes was 2.6 mil while sw was 4.5.from my calculation,se votes will not exceed 3 million while sw will record at least 5 mil

dochenaj:
If this poll plays out exactly as this. With the undecided voters divided in the same proportion as percentage votes garnered by that party in that zone.

Then the election will go into a runoff.

It will not.take note that undecided in se is the lowest while sw,ne,nw is high so tinubu will likely overtake obi.again,from the result,tinubu will get the spread in the north and at least 2 ss states

garfield1:


Umahi is the strongest apc candidate in ebonyi.most of tinubu votes will come from his district.

Have you heard of chinedu ogah of the APC? Umahi's suppose district is where Anyim Pius Anyim comes from, Ifeanyichukwu odii comes from, hama nnachi comes from, his tormentor the labour party senate guy comes from, idu igariway or something comes from, his ohaozara when compared to onicha LGA don't have enough voting strength. What can poor Umahi do, even odii of PDP and FON doesn't campaign for their principles. If only you know how tricky Dave is. Don't forget his popular saying "is only God that promises and not fail"

nameo:


Bantu, NOI, Nex etc are scientific polls.

What are you talking about?

Do you know what scientific polling is??

Go and read about scientific polling, and then come back and take a comprehensive lesson from me.


No be today I begin dey conduct research.



For the fact that it is impossible to even carry out a simple random sampling on the voting populace, and not any less difficult with systematic, cluster or stratified sampling, creates a sampling bias.

Paulheyman:

Have you heard of chinedu ogah of the APC? Umahi's suppose district is where Anyim Pius Anyim comes from, Ifeanyichukwu odii comes from, hama nnachi comes from, his tormentor the labour party senate guy comes from, idu igariway or something comes from, his ohaozara when compared to onicha LGA don't have enough voting strength. What can poor Umahi do, even odii of PDP and FON doesn't campaign for their principles. If only you know how tricky Dave is. Don't forget his popular saying "is only God that promises and not fail"

The pdp is divided and I heard anyim is supporting him.he has intimidated and bullied Linus okorie with ebubeagu so that one will not be a problem.ama nnachi is a small fry.he was a failure until umahi singlehandedly made him a senator.umahi dominates ivo,ohaozara and onicha,their votes outweigh afikpo votes.igariwey isn't going for senate..ifeanyi odii is a small boy and I heard umahi sponsored him to divide pdp votes and obinna ogba chances

Yes in ebonyi central chinedu ogah is very popular in ikwo.ex gov elechi is from there and buhari won ikwo in 2019.I believe tinubu will win ikwo too...
In ebonyi north,I believe the izzis will vote massively for apc from top to bottom since apc gave them senate and guber ticket.

garfield1:


There was a rerun in aba federal constituency after ossy prestige died and irev was used.ikpeazu useless candidate won in an apga area....apc has won most elections conducted with bvas.hope candidate won in ngor okpala with bvas

That's the error on your part. The peoples vote count and a candidate of the people won and not ikpeazu candidate. So, I'm the southeast and the southsouth the candidate of the people will still win whether he is Obasanjo or Tinubu's candidate. The people will still win

vicdom:


https://bantupage.com/peter-gregory-obi-of-labour-party-storms-the-bloc-into-pole-position-poll-show-yet-again/

Great

garfield1:


The pdp is divided and I heard anyim is supporting him.he has intimidated and bullied Linus okorie with ebubeagu so that one will not be a problem.ama nnachi is a small fry.he was a failure until umahi singlehandedly made him a senator.umahi dominates ivo,ohaozara and onicha,their votes outweigh afikpo votes.igariwey isn't going for senate..ifeanyi odii is a small boy and I heard umahi sponsored him to divide pdp votes and obinna ogba chances

Yes in ebonyi central chinedu ogah is very popular in ikwo.ex gov elechi is from there and buhari won ikwo in 2019.I believe tinubu will win ikwo too...
In ebonyi north,I believe the izzis will vote massively for apc from top to bottom since apc gave them senate and guber ticket.

Stay on the topic "ballot snatching" so, Umahi will snatch ballot to disenfranchise chinedu ogah, will snatch ballot to disenfranchise Sam egwu, will snatch ballot box to disenfranchise idu, Linus, nnachi et al in their strong hold? How can he snatch ballot box in Ebonyi north and central were the men there are more power hungry than him. The people will vote and the people will win

Paulheyman:

Have you heard of chinedu ogah of the APC? Umahi's suppose district is where Anyim Pius Anyim comes from, Ifeanyichukwu odii comes from, hama nnachi comes from, his tormentor the labour party senate guy comes from, idu igariway or something comes from, his ohaozara when compared to onicha LGA don't have enough voting strength. What can poor Umahi do, even odii of PDP and FON doesn't campaign for their principles. If only you know how tricky Dave is. Don't forget his popular saying "is only God that promises and not fail"

Please, if you are from Ebonyi State can you predict what percentage of Votes Peter Obi will score.? People are saying that Obi will not do well there because of Umahi.

garfield1:


That is what I am saying.becsuse se votes is small,they can have a higher turnout percentage than sw but sw will still record more votes.sw has 18 mil voters,se has 10 mil so you see,you obi has a problem.
In 2015,se votes was 2.6 mil while sw was 4.5.from my calculation,se votes will not exceed 3 million while sw will record at least 5 mil

Please kindly refer to the 2023 elections voters registration by zone. When you remove Lagos southeast is beating southwest with a million or there about votes. And having high voter registration doesn't translate to turnout. Southwest without Lagos doesn't match southeast voting strength and don't forget you're comparing five states to six states

* Kindly illustrate how you did the calculations

Again how will Umahi and hope snatch ballot box when their brother is contesting while Seyi and Adeleke won't?

Paulheyman:


Please kindly refer to the 2023 elections voters registration by zone. When you remove Lagos southeast is beating southwest with a million or there about votes. And having high voter registration doesn't translate to turnout. Southwest without Lagos doesn't match southeast voting strength and don't forget you're comparing five states to six states

* Kindly illustrate how you did the calculations

Again how will Umahi and hope snatch ballot box when their brother is contesting while Seyi and Adeleke won't?

Oga,Lagos is in the sw so leave it there.I don't like all these Igbo vs Yoruba comparison.the sw and nw have the highest voters register and they always give the highest votes.

Does umahi and hope see obi as their brother? Have they spoken in obi's favour? You can see that makinde allies are following tinubu and attacking atiku,do you see umahi attacking tinubu? Politics is about interest not emotions.obi victory does not favour hope and umahi interests but seyi winning interest tinubu and vice versa

Paulheyman:


Stay on the topic "ballot snatching" so, Umahi will snatch ballot to disenfranchise chinedu ogah, will snatch ballot to disenfranchise Sam egwu, will snatch ballot box to disenfranchise idu, Linus, nnachi et al in their strong hold? How can he snatch ballot box in Ebonyi north and central were the men there are more power hungry than him. The people will vote and the people will win

Umahi is targeting atiku and obi not apc members.they will do it in a wat that it will affect only obi and atiku.dont forget that presidential ballot is different from others

buchilla:
Please, if you are from Ebonyi State can you predict what percentage of Votes Peter Obi will score.? People are saying that Obi will not do well there because of Umahi.

I am not from there but we did some census/contract/nysc et al stuff there. The people are great, mostly closely related to Cross river people in terms of ancestry (not entirely true for all) but anything you see in Ebonyi in terms of voting will be replicated in Cross river

** Ebonyi have a cunny governor. He closed the secondary schools and ordered school principals to direct their students to the Ebonyi stadium to receive Tinubu even civil servants signed attendance in the stadium that day. Dave is smart and tricky. His yes means no and his no means yes. He's not a man you hold by his words. Obi is winning Ebonyi landslide, forget garfield1, he has wishful thinking. Dave isn't sure of senate, APC caused serious crisis in Afikpo south, presently Ivo, onitcha, Afikpo north are not within his reach. The ezza people already have their hown candidate, while izzi are strongly obidient cos in their land lies the state capital. But the governorship election will be tough though

Paulheyman:


That's the error on your part. The peoples vote count and a candidate of the people won and not ikpeazu candidate. So, I'm the southeast and the southsouth the candidate of the people will still win whether he is Obasanjo or Tinubu's candidate. The people will still win

Where a party has a popular candidate in a local election,the other candidates will benefit.for instance ouk is popular in abia north.many of those voting him will vote for tinubu and other apc candidates same thing in ebonyi south,ikwo,idemili etc

garfield1:



Oga,Lagos is in the sw so leave it there.I don't like all these Igbo vs Yoruba comparison.the sw and nw have the highest voters register and they always give the highest votes.

Does umahi and hope see obi as their brother? Have they spoken in obi's favour? You can see that makinde allies are following tinubu and attacking atiku,do you see umahi attacking tinubu? Politics is about interest not emotions.obi victory does not favour hope and umahi interests but seyi winning interest tinubu and vice versa

If hope and Dave don't see him as brother what do they see obi as? And by extension what do they see Tinubu as?

Onyiridike:

You still didn't read it. Tinubu is not strong in NC and SS

Tinubu will win Kwara and Kogi....

Paulheyman:


I am not from there but we did some census/contract/nysc et al stuff there. The people are great, mostly closely related to Cross river people in terms of ancestry (not entirely true for all) but anything you see in Ebonyi in terms of voting will be replicated in Cross river

** Ebonyi have a cunny governor. He closed the secondary schools and ordered school principals to direct their students to the Ebonyi stadium to receive Tinubu even civil servants signed attendance in the stadium that day. Dave is smart and tricky. His yes means no and his no means yes. He's not a man you hold by his words. Obi is winning Ebonyi landslide, forget garfield1, he has wishful thinking. Dave isn't sure of senate, APC caused serious crisis in Afikpo south, presently Ivo, onitcha, Afikpo north are not within his reach. The ezza people already have their hown candidate, while izzi are strongly obidient cos in their land lies the state capital. But the governorship election will be tough though

Umahi is popular,the best governor in ebonyi history and south.the people of ebonyi south will vote him massively...obi will win ebonyi but tinubu will get 25%.atiku will take third.nwifuru will win odii and ogba...
Izzi people will vote tinubu because if tinubu wins,nwifuru will likely win

garfield1:


Where a party has a popular candidate in a local election,the other candidates will benefit.for instance ouk is popular in abia north.many of those voting him will vote for tinubu and other apc candidates same thing in ebonyi south,ikwo,idemili etc

The people you're talking about are people who got their voters card mainly for peter Obi. that's what happened in Nigeria. Many voters card are for peter Obi, currently on census in echi-aba Ebonyi LGA, people there are all shouting and clamouring for peter Obi. The purpose why these people collected the voters card is to vote Obi. if oyetola can lose, Jonathan can lose then anyone including Buhari won

Paulheyman:


I am not from there but we did some census/contract/nysc et al stuff there. The people are great, mostly closely related to Cross river people in terms of ancestry (not entirely true for all) but anything you see in Ebonyi in terms of voting will be replicated in Cross river

** Ebonyi have a cunny governor. He closed the secondary schools and ordered school principals to direct their students to the Ebonyi stadium to receive Tinubu even civil servants signed attendance in the stadium that day. Dave is smart and tricky. His yes means no and his no means yes. He's not a man you hold by his words. Obi is winning Ebonyi landslide, forget garfield1, he has wishful thinking. Dave isn't sure of senate, APC caused serious crisis in Afikpo south, presently Ivo, onitcha, Afikpo north are not within his reach. The ezza people already have their hown candidate, while izzi are strongly obidient cos in their land lies the state capital. But the governorship election will be tough though

We should forget garfield1... But belief you because you are what?

babyfaceafrica:


We should forget garfield1... But belief you because you are what?

As in

Paulheyman:


The people you're talking about are people who got their voters card mainly for peter Obi. that's what happened in Nigeria. Many voters card are for peter Obi, currently on census in echi-aba Ebonyi LGA, people there are all shouting and clamouring for peter Obi. The purpose why these people collected the voters card is to vote Obi. if oyetola can lose, Jonathan can lose then anyone including Buhari won

The former voters will vote tinubu

garfield1:


Umahi is popular,the best governor in ebonyi history and south.the people of ebonyi south will vote him massively...obi will win ebonyi but tinubu will get 25%.atiku will take third.nwifuru will win odii and ogba...
Izzi people will vote tinubu because if tinubu wins,nwifuru will likely win

Again Tinubu can't get up to 25% in Ebonyi LGA judging from those collecting their voters card. The campaign is ongoing in the inec office, everyone there are talking about voting OBI while they wait for their turn to collect their PVC