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InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 5:02pm On Sep 02, 2015
China tightens trading rules on forex, stock markets http://reut.rs/1VvzuKH
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 4:37pm On Sep 02, 2015
http://www.punchng.com/news/nigeria-risks-economic-decline-buhari/

President Muhammadu Buhari on Tuesday warned that with the fall in oil prices, Nigeria risked economic decline, if it failed to manage its resources prudently.

Buhari gave the warning during a meeting with members of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria at the Presidential Villa, Abuja.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 2:48pm On Sep 02, 2015
FannySwindler:
Spicytayomic. Am not really a JIJO master....but situation calls for it. I knew there would be last minute magic as usual...as most Banks always try to return to opening price once it's 2.15. So I positioned myself.

Am out of Access now....but will enter tomorrow to be registered for dividends to make my additional profit....Fingers crossed. cool
I will advise you take a break and enjoy your loot then patiently wait for it at sub N3:50k else you will lose both your profit with some of your capital. Don't say I didn't warn you.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 2:28pm On Sep 02, 2015
angelo82:
For NSE,you should monitor Brent price which is the sweet crude............West Texas oil is 44.60 while Brent is going up and now is 49.12................I believe you are quoting WTI oil and not Brent oil....................
Today Brent is currently gaining close to 4% so it has changed.

Im into forex / commodity trading. So BLOOMBERG time delays a bit.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 2:09pm On Sep 02, 2015
Elai147:
Have you thought of the effect the introduction of Whatsapp, Viber, Skype, BBM and the like has on the revenues of these companies? How many people still waste credit to call their love ones when they can use services like whatsapp and viber calls for free? A huge chunk of their revenue comes from international calls and how many people still use their phones to make international calls when you have free services like voip calls? Telecom companies are currently having huge drop in revenues due to the recent invention of whatsapp, voip and others and there is possibility that this will continue. Why do you think MTN is coming to the market to list? Where were they all the while telecom business was still booming? Now the tin don red for them and they have decided to list. I think due diligence is required when it comes to investing in telecom companies. I don't know why I see them as thieves.
On point they have finish eating the meat now looking for who to give the bone.

The same where way STARCOMMS enlisted @ N14. Today where are they?

Well I pity those that still buy IPO. If not ask SEPLAT, Caverton shareholders to mention but few.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m):
Michael11stock:
nawa ooooo FO and SEPLAT are now mate almost the same price lol NSE the unseen is more than the seen grin
Tomorrow somebody will want to argue that STOCK MARKET is not one of the most organized gambling platform.

This was the same SEPLAT that was enlist last year April with all the hypes @N576 per Share now trades @N230
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 1:50pm On Sep 02, 2015
angelo82:
Price of brent is still above 45.................

http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Check again Brent is currently $44.57.

0ne thing most people fail to understand is there's actually another GLOBAL MELTDOWN going on but the powers that be are controlling it in a way that it won't boomerang like the previous ones,

In order words this time around it happening on a slow and steady basis. that's why we keep witnessing a new low frm time to time. smiley
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 12:50pm On Sep 02, 2015
otokx:
OANDO still looks unattractive.
With what is happening globally now I see OANDO dropping below N6 and if anybody decide to buy above that price you are on your own.

*ThE OcToPuS *
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 12:41pm On Sep 02, 2015
angelo82:
Brent is 48.74...............This is bear has nothing to do with oil...........Oil will still go up more..................
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-01/oil-retreats-below-45-as-u-s-stockpiles-seen-exacerbating-glut
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m):
The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) today launched a high-end listing board that will showcase the stock market's largest and most liquid companies.

Zenith Bank, Dangote Cement and FBN Holdings have just listed on the Premium Board after going through some verification process.

http://www.cnbcafrica.com/news/western-africa/2015/08/25/nse-haruna-jalo-waziri-premium-board/

Infact with the way FBNH has been nose-diving i thought they were going bankcrutcy grin but when i saw the above news it made me to quickly launch DEEP @N5:30k lastweek thursday. smiley

I'm now with high hopes the ELEPHANT will surely take us to N18 within the next 18mths cool
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 4:32am On Aug 30, 2015
passwelle:
All stocks on the NSE can attain a maximum of +5% or -5% of the reference price. The reference price for the day is the opening price at 10.15am. If a stock opens 5% up, that price becomes the reference price for the day, it can thus attain a further +5% of that reference price i.e daily max of +10.25% from the previous closing price. Likewise, it can go -5% of the reference price. Please can the brokers in the forum help clarify this to keep folks from being misinformed. All the rules from mid 2012, 10 market makers, 16 equities jist is TT.
From onset the daily price-band movement used to be maximum of -5% or +5%.

Then around mid 2012 the first set of MARKET MAKERS were introduced, They were precisely 10 in number.

It was exactly that period the daily price-band was extended to -10.25 or +10.25 maximum.

They started with only 16 Stocks few weeks later 9 more stocks was added making 25. from there up to 43stocks before every stock on NSE was included.

So pull your acts together and don't get yourself confuse thats why today a lot get their fingers burnt in NSE .

Same way i said sell in MAY and GO away you guys labelled it TUMBUM-TUMBUM analysis now what is happening?

Well over one decade in NSE and still waxing strong is no child's play, those that refuse to learnt from others experience will definitely learn the hard way. I rest my case.

*ThE OcToPuS*
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 3:44pm On Aug 29, 2015
stokfrick:
I agree with u. However more stocks easily made 10%(that is from previous closing price) as at then than now. I can't really remember but its like the rule regarding daily price movement was reviewed by late 2013/early 2014. I stand 2 b corrected though.
The rule started mid-2012 with the introduction of 10 market markers and only 16 equities were included.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 12:25pm On Aug 29, 2015
angelo82:
In few months,FBNH will surpass your entry price but try not to sell for now.....................
Got my 1st batch of FBNH last thursday @ N5:30k smiley
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 12:14pm On Aug 29, 2015
passwelle:
Sir, learn about stop losses, and in future deploy them. Since Oando was N22, the OS has increased by almost 50% while the oil price (the major source of their revenue) has declined by more than 40%. All the best.
Stop loss is meant for short term traders, if not I would advice him to starve his loss by averaging down since the price is low.

I bought my OANDO btw N32 and N9:20k my average currently stood @ N13:28k after 14months of waiting game.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 10:02am On Aug 28, 2015
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-25/nigeria-s-currency-needs-devaluation-guaranty-trust-bank-says

Nigeria needs to devalue the naira as falling oil prices and the global markets rout this week mean the currency’s exchange rate is unsustainable, according to biggest local bank by market value.

“There’s only one way the currency can go,” Segun Agbaje, chief executive officer of Lagos-based Guaranty Trust Bank Plc, said in a conference call on Tuesday. “As a country, we have to make the difficult decision. At the current oil price and with what’s happening in the world, we’ll have to deal with some measure of devaluation.”

A devaluation of about 10 percent against the dollar would be enough for the naira to “settle,” he said.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 2:09pm On Aug 26, 2015
lancee:
Imagine those that bought IPO @ 33 naira 2007 , and secondary market then @ 44 naira ,what a situation
Thank God most of you are now seeing what some of us have been witnessing over the past 10yrs.

2moro somebody will come here to argue with me STOCK MARKET is not one of the most organized gambling platform.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/11824478/Black-Monday-fears-come-back-to-spook-panicked-investors.html

Above all you people should bear in mind that the market is still heading to 20000 basis point bcuz September is school fees period. grin grin grin

I strongly believe things will start looking up after November MPC meeting by then both devaluation and fuel subsidy removal might ve take place grin grin grin grin grin

*ThE OcToPuS*

InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m):
Elai147:
Hehehe, Oando don finally trade below 5-year low. E remain NSEASI... Patiently waiting... grin. When the bulls finally surface na break-even JIJO masters go dey think of, no be profit. Our prayer points should be to break even before profit takers go start fellowship.

This is why it is better to be a long term investor and maybe do very little of JIJO on a part-time basis make e no be like say person dey dull during the year. Long term investors are always happy during the bear and the bull seasons. Think about it.
Yea the market is now the long term investors delight and this actually the time to break bank but try to avoid companies that will go bankrupt though what is holding some of us from launching deep is dollar rate, So we are watching with keen interest till CBN is ready to play balls. smiley
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 3:59pm On Aug 25, 2015
ogadeolu:
And the bleeding continues as predicted.....i suspect a global meltdown again, i hear it happens every 8yrs, is it another 8 yrs since 2008 nii.....but this time i will not be slack oh, the likes of FO that got to less dan 10naira and i overlook, i will crucify them ni.....If you want to JIJO, set ur stop loss, if you want a long term, you can decide to buy and wait on the side line, but the wisest investors dont catch a falling knife, just like our forex that got to N250/$ and now struggling to be N200/$, bad time dont last forever, i will not be left on the tarmac again, guess someone remember that saying...happy investing.

invest wisely, time is money and life.
As at today (25th Aug 2015) dollar transfer rate to Dubai is #235 per USD. Its cheap in Nigeria but getting it across the boarder is where the problem lies.

I laugh so hard at those that falls for CBN propaganda that Naira has appreciated unless they want to tell me u can now spend dollar In the streets of Lagos.

By and large CBN policy has indirectly turn dollar into a sort of cocaine business. smiley
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 1:53pm On Aug 25, 2015
PETERiCHY:
it amuses me when I read comments about the market bouncing back very soon.

The bottomline is the both PDP and APC has lavished the nation's treasury on their selfish campaign now the oil revenue they were hoping to recoup their investments from is not forthcoming.

To the extent FG have to deep hands into the NLGN fund and pulled $2.1billion to bailout states just for payment of pending salaries not even for infrastructures.

Oshiomole on the hand is busy fight Iweala bcuz she didn't approve a certain loan for his state.

Emeliefe on his own side is claiming the reserve is now growing in leaps and bound while CBN can no longer defend the NAIRA which lead to the free fall.

Now tell me who is deceiving who?

The major reasons Pa. MB is not in a hurry to appoint his cabinet due to lack fund.

I ve said it countless times that the only way forward for Nigeria is AGRICULTURE so it's better Nigeria and Nigerians wake to reality and stop living in fool's. paradise.

By NOVEMBER some of the things I'm seeing now will be made manifest.

*ThE OcToPuS *
http://www.punchng.com/business/business-economy/august-salaries-for-federal-workers-may-be-delayed/

The source said the delay in holding the meeting was due to revenue challenges, which the country had been grappling with in the last few months.

There have been persistent shutdowns and shut-in of trunks and pipelines at various oil and gas terminals, which have had a negative impact on revenue performance.

A top government official told our correspondent on Monday that a majority of the revenue-generating agencies had yet to remit any money to the federation account.

It was learnt that the meeting, which was originally scheduled to hold last week, could not be held because enough revenue had not been remitted to the federation account.

The official said, “You know we have been having revenue challenges and the money we usually share is taken from the federation account, which is funded by revenue-generating agencies.

“Some of these agencies are still generating revenues and as of last week when the meeting was supposed to be held, we couldn’t hold it because there was not enough revenue for sharing.”
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 2:50pm On Aug 24, 2015
Bloomberg - U.S. Stocks Fall as Exchanges Open; S&P 500 Index Loses 3.4% http://bloom.bg/1LvzDMm

U.S. stocks fell at the start of trading, as measured by the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, at 9:31 a.m. New York time.
The S&P 500 dropped 3.4 percent to 1,903.41. There were 0 stocks that rose and 145 that fell. Apple Inc, down 11.1 percent to $94.07, led the decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.3 percent to 15,924.66. For the year, the S&P 500 has lost 7.6 percent. The Dow has dropped 10.7 percent.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 1:46pm On Aug 24, 2015
PETERiCHY:
it amuses me when I read comments about the market bouncing back very soon.

The bottomline is the both PDP and APC has lavished the nation's treasury on their selfish campaign now the oil revenue they were hoping to recoup their investments from is not forthcoming.

To the extent FG have to deep hands into the NLGN fund and pulled $2.1billion to bailout states just for payment of pending salaries not even for infrastructures.

Oshiomole on the hand is busy fight Iweala bcuz she didn't approve a certain loan for his state.

Emeliefe on his own side is claiming the reserve is now growing in leaps and bound while CBN can no longer defend the NAIRA which lead to the free fall.

Now tell me who is deceiving who?

The major reasons Pa. MB is not in a hurry to appoint his cabinet due to lack fund.

I ve said it countless times that the only way forward for Nigeria is AGRICULTURE so it's better Nigeria and Nigerians wake to reality and stop living in fool's. paradise.

By NOVEMBER some of the things I'm seeing now will be made manifest.

*ThE OcToPuS *
Bloomberg - Brent Crude Falls Below $45 for First Time Since 2009 on Surplus http://bloom.bg/1Je6dwl smiley
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 12:16pm On Aug 24, 2015
ogbs2020love:
I currently have no car.
I have almost all the stock s on the NSE worth about 5m.
A wife and a child.
I'm 30years
I have a life extra savings policy with axa Mansrud. worth 500k
2 commercial plots of land worth 2.6m .
my problem is that I am addicted the NSE.
pls should I buy the car now,or invest 450k. then wait and buy the car by next year,?
pls assist here
Weather you buy a car or not that's your own necessity.

My only advice for you bcuz of your wife and child is to pull 80% of that 5m from NSE and look for a real business.

then keep the remaining 20% for this the more you look the less you see business.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 10:18am On Aug 24, 2015
angrybull:
There is no room for gamblers in the stock market, you are strictly an investor. If you want to be called gambler in stock investment then you choose to act foolish.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/11819812/Markets-Black-Monday-China-panic-grips-investors-rouble-collapses-and-stocks-undergo-selling-bloodbath-live.html

Shanghai composite falls as much as 9pc - reversing yearly gains
; More than $5 trillion has been wiped off global stocks since Aug 11
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 11:04am On Aug 22, 2015
angelo82:
This generalization is wrong..............Yes you gamble big time when you are buying stocks of companies that are making losses............When you buy based on speculation you gamble but when you buy fundamentally sound stocks you invest except or otherwise if crisis like the 2010 occur and some companies incur serious losses,then there is possibilities of loosing out but this happens in every business.............Baba Ijebu is 100% gambling while stockmarket investment is not 100% gambling............Forte Oil was trading at a very low price in 2010 or thereafter but see where it is today without any restructuring of their shares like that of unity bank shareholders..................I read an article of one of the top executive of FBNH and he said they are not raising any capital by any right issue because it is unfair to their shareholders and it will add pressure to their equity...........So the resort to the use of cleaning up their balance sheets,savings cost to improve their capital base and also retaining most of their earnings..........Buying their stock can not be gambling as they are thinking ahead and put the interest of their shareholders in consideration.........Same goes to Zenith,GTB,ACESS,and some serious listed companies on NSE...............Unless my friend you are indirectly fighting the market and promoting bears so as to actualize your own dream..............You make sense in most of your post but sometime you over emphasize on irrelevant points based on your emotion...............Devaluation may happen or not but as a trader you need to figure out what you will do next incase the unexpected happens..........Market goes on regardless and people will still make money.............
Well to start with the stocks you mentioned in 2007

(FORTE OIL) which was former known as (AP) traded above N300.

UNITYBANK traded above N10
FBNH traded above N70
ZENITH traded above N70
ACCESS traded above N30
GTB traded above N70

For further enquiry ask the shareholders of
ALLSTATES TRUST BANK.
FINBANK.
AFRIBANK.
SPRINGBANK.
OCEANIC BANK.
INTERCONTINENTAL BANK.
BANK PHB just to mention but few i think they will explain better.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 11:03am On Aug 22, 2015
.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 8:54am On Aug 22, 2015
carpenter:
"I admit to buying stocks, but I think that it's a very dangerous idea. Remember that for every stock you buy, there is someone on the other end who thinks it's just as good of an idea to sell" Culled from Business Insider
STOCK MARKET is the most organized gambling platform.

That's why it's best you invest your idle fund and have your peace of mind except you have an authentic inside informaton.

For salary earners you see it as a project by setting aside a particular percent % of ur salary, just like the way you pay your tithe. On the long run God been by your side, Your ROI might even be more 1000%.

But for those that take it as a FULLTIME business bear in mind you have decided to play BABA-IJEBU with you life and that amounts to signing your own death warrant.

*ThE OcToPuS*
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 5:37am On Aug 20, 2015
A Way Forward
It is now evident that the naira is overvalued and will continue to depreciate unless the supply-demand dynamics are adjusted and the domestic manufacturing industry becomes competitive on the international front.

First on the list is subsidy removal. Removal of the fuel subsidy will reduce the import bill by 21% as well as the importation of refined crude products, as importers will have to bear the cost of oil price volatility and exchange rate depreciation.

In conclusion, the weakening of the naira is partly as a result of internal imbalances arising from import dependence, an uncompetitive manufacturing industry and over-reliance on oil for foreign earnings. Taken together, if these issues are eliminated simultaneously by removing the fuel subsidy, encouraging the manufacturing sector and adopting a free floating exchange rate, the naira will be on track to recovery and trading at a fair value.

http://www.proshareng.com/news/28317.html
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 1:18pm On Aug 19, 2015
Michael11stock:
I am loosing 60% of oando the thing dey pain me ooooo gan gan
Imagine because of a 15-20% Naira devaluation that would ve brought in a lot of FDI funds into the market to prop-up the economy.

Now most investors are losing over 50% of their portfolio and at the end of the day NAIRA will still be adjusted.

While CBN kept telling us that the reserve is growing, that's what you get from a government that is built on lies and propaganda. cool
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 9:13am On Aug 19, 2015
myjoy08:
I just hope some people will not use this devaluation issue to miss the right path? Anyway, our great Oga Peterichy who received his salary in $$$ is very interested for CBN to devalue our currency so that poor people like us would not be able to compete with them. Anyway, God is watching us all!
Mind you i still have some fund in NSE in other words devaluation will affect me as well.

So you ought to look at the bigger picture and stop being emotional.

I made it clear a week before the general election that a lot of funds has left the market and they are now on the sidelines waiting for the right time.

One of the major reasons Nigeria economy is suffocating is simply because NAIRA is not yet right and we are now witnessing the adverse effect of CBN stubborness.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 8:44am On Aug 19, 2015
http://businessdayonline.com/2015/08/dollar-shortage-reality-bites-from-large-firms-to-small-traders/

Dollar shortage reality bites from large firms to small traders
Nigerian businesses large and small are beginning to feel the impact of the current dollar shortage and devaluation in the black foreign exchange FX market .

Since the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) cut dollar access to importers of 41 types of goods, ranging from private jets to rice, Eurobonds and foreign shares, importers say they have been unable to pay suppliers, while elevated demand in the black market has led to the naira trading as low as N240 per dollar.

The cash deposit restrictions placed on Nigerians operating domiciliary accounts has also meant most traders have been unable to order for goods as quickly as before.

“I used to be able to easily send money to the U.S for my partner to ship my goods down,” said Solomon Ndubuisi, a dealer in imported female bags and shoes, in a downtown Lagos market known as Balogun.

“The CBN daily withdrawal limit of $300 has changed all that now and I have to wait for up to three weeks to gather a reasonable sum. The black market rates are expensive and we can’t really increase prices because customers are not buying as much anymore.”

The more than 50 percent slide in oil prices since 2014 has negatively hit government spending and its trickledown effect to consumer spending in Africa’s largest economy.

The dollar shortage that the fall in hard currency earnings has caused has led to a huge premium for dollars sold on the black market which is slowing down trade and consumption that make up a big chunk of Nigeria’s GDP.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates Africa’s largest economy will expand by 4.8 percent in 2015, less than the 6.8 percent of 2014.

For larger companies operating in the country, a big problem is the pressure on earnings from the naira drop.

“Nigerian Breweries (NB) reported its 1H FY15 numbers which were poor across the board,” Renaissance Capital Analysts Omair Ansari and Olaloye Oyawoye, said in a July 23 note.

“We have lowered our industry and company growth forecasts for FY15 and FY16 as the consumer remains severely constrained. We expect further downside to margins, given pressure on the naira.”

Shoprite Holdings Ltd.’s said in the statement yesterday that Nigerian sales “were negatively affected by the drop in oil prices and the currency depreciating against the U.S. dollar.”

MTN Group Ltd., Africa’s largest wireless operator, said on August 5 first-half profit declined 11 percent, missing analysts’ estimates, as sales fell in the company’s largest market and foreign-exchange movements in the rand against the naira weighed on earnings.

The naira has fallen some 22 percent in the past year on the interbank market, to N199 per dollar.

Nigeria’s dollar reserves are down one-fifth to $31.6 billion since the end of September 2014.

Investors have sold down stocks of companies operating in Nigeria as a result of the dollar availability uncertainty.

The Nigeria Stock Exchange declined by 2.59 percent to 29,909.44 points on Monday, dragging the index to a four month low, of -13.70 percent.

“We believe investors are apprehensive of the current risk- return profile of the Nigerian economy, especially with falling global oil prices, unstable exchange rate and the uncertain policy direction of the current government,” said Meristem Securities analysts in a Aug 17 market update.


"TRUTH IS BITTER BUT IT SETS YOU FREE" cool
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 2:40pm On Aug 18, 2015
Nigerian central bank Governor Godwin Emefiele is losing the battle to prevent the naira from going the way of other oil-dependent currencies.
After imposing trading restrictions in February to prevent dollars from fleeing the economy, importers have been unable to pay suppliers, a thriving black market has sprung up in foreign banknotes and teachers have gone unpaid. The naira has been stable over the past six months since the central bank introduced regulations to halt a 20 percent decline in the currency in the 12 months through Feb. 12 to a record low of 206.32 per dollar.
That’s heaping pressure on the authorities to ditch the rules and let the naira weaken alongside Russia’s ruble, Colombia’s peso and Norway’s krone. Forwards prices suggest the currency of Africa’s biggest oil producer will tumble 15 percent within six months and 25 percent over the next year.
“Their currency is still very overvalued and so they’re going to remain under pressure to allow it to depreciate,” said Gareth Brickman, an analyst at Stamford, Connecticut-based ETM Analytics. The central bank has fought depreciation “tooth and nail, every step of the way,” he said.
Emefiele, 54, has said the exchange rate is “appropriate” and argues that allowing it to weaken would stoke inflation in a country that imports almost all its manufactured goods. The strong currency and a scarcity of dollars are hurting growth, which the International Monetary Fund estimates will be 4.8 percent in 2015, less than half the average over the past decade.
Traders are speculating Emefiele will have to change tack and abandon efforts to crack down on speculators. He bolstered the rules after a strategy of burning through foreign reserves failed to stop the naira sliding to a record 206.32 per dollar on Feb. 12.
Devaluation Forecasts
ETM’s Brickman predicts the central bank will be forced to devalue the currency by about 10 percent by year-end to 220 per dollar, from 199.05 at the market close in Lagos on Monday.
Currency trading has “dropped dramatically” under the new rules, said Craig Thompson, a broker at Nyon, Switzerland-based Continental Capital Markets SA. “It’s a fraction of what used to go through.”
The trading curbs, together with the more than 50 percent drop in oil prices since mid-2014, are weighing heavily on Nigeria, which relies on crude for almost all its foreign earnings. Banks are increasingly wary of lending to individuals and Nigeria’s main stock index has dropped 16 percent since the start of April, matching the decline in the whole of 2014.
Ibrahim Mu’azu, a spokesman for Nigeria’s central bank, defended its currency policy and said authorities would meet companies’ legitimate demand for foreign exchange.
Scrapping the rules is all but inevitable to many traders, making a weaker naira an obvious bet.
Standard Chartered Plc, which gets more than half its revenue from emerging markets, predicts a decline to 222 by year-end, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees it falling to about 230. Forward prices compiled by Bloomberg signal levels of 228.15 in six months and 248.5 in a year.
Emefiele, a former chief executive officer of Zenith Bank Plc -- Nigeria’s second-biggest lender by market value -- isn’t the only African policy maker trying to protect his currency against the drop in oil.
Angola’s kwanza, which has slumped 23 percent in the past year, has been little changed this month as the nation props up the exchange rate by spending reserves.
As with the naira, that’s just storing up losses for the future, said John Ashbourne, an Africa economist at London-based advisory firm Capital Economics Ltd.
He sees the naira falling as much as 8 percent to 210-215 per dollar and the kwanza losing up to 15 percent of its value by year-end. China’s yuan devaluation this month has increased pressure on their central banks to devalue, Ashbourne said.
“The currencies were both too strong before,” he said. “They’re still too strong.”


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-17/pressure-building-on-nigeria-as-naira-out-of-step-with-oil-peers

A STITCH IN TIME SAVES NINE cool
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PETERiCHY(m): 2:33pm On Aug 18, 2015
http://nairametrics.com/analysis-has-the-cbn-lost-its-independence/

[ANALYSIS] Has The CBN Lost its Independence? | NAIRAMETRICS

Meanwhile black market dealers are selling the dollar at near N225 never mind Emefiele’s moves to eliminate them by cutting trees.

In basic economics when a good becomes scarce, the price must adjust higher to reduce demand and force substitutes.

The CBN has refused to adjust the naira currency, even when the price of oil has plummeted therefore reducing the availability of dollars in Nigeria.

It has also made matters worse by limiting the ability of ordinary Nigerians to freely operate their dollar denominated accounts. In effect creeping capital controls

Analysts are now calling for further fall in oil prices to perhaps test the $30 mark.

Nigeria’s currency the Naira has historically tracked the global oil price.

The CBN must know that it is fighting a war it cannot win against global headwinds (strong dollar, weak Chinese growth) that have affected all EM currencies from the South African Rand to the Brazilian Real.

Markets must be made to believe that when the CBN speaks it has a coherent credible agenda, devoid of political interference.


Investors are now paying the price, at the end of the day CBN will have no choice than to devalue the NAIRA. cool

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