₦airaland Forum

emmanuelewumi:
Do you have the 9 months financial report of the business?

kolaish:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/33753_VITAFOAM_NIG_PLC%20_QUARTER_3_%20_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR.pdf

OBAGADAFFI:
Vitafoam @ 16

Courtville on full-bid

megawealth01:
Where's that guy that thinks he can mock me on CHAMS... CHAMS heading for full BID... It has done 10% already!

OBAGADAFFI:
CHAMS na JIJO stock o.

Buy low, sell high.

veecovee:
@megawealth, hope no be your hand a see today for chams

dharpzee:
Yes you can, kindly visit www.meritrade.com, and open a stockbroking account or download the app.

Regards

megawealth01:
Where's that guy that thinks he can mock me on CHAMS... CHAMS heading for full BID... It has done 10% already!

locodemy:
It doesn't have what will take it far.
I got 2 million units at 21kobo btw 10am and 10.05.

It went on full bid at 23kobo.
I offloaded at 23kobo when I saw the full bid is shaking.More huge supplies from trapped holders were still on the way before closing and bergainers quene at 20/21 kobo waiting for the fall.

Patience is golden

If courteville rise more, it can still rise above 25kobo.I prefer to stock on Transcorp and wait it out.

locodemy:
It doesn't have what will take it far.
I got 2 million units at 21kobo btw 10am and 10.05.

It went on full bid at 23kobo.
I offloaded at 23kobo when I saw the full bid is shaking.More huge supplies from trapped holders were still on the way before closing and bergainers quene at 20/21 kobo waiting for the fall.

If courteville rise more, it can still rise above 25kobo.I prefer to stock on Transcorp and wait it out.

OBAGADAFFI:
You bought @ 21kobo and sold @ 23kobo.

Hope you included charges and slippages.

locodemy:
I sold off because I didn't like the trading pattern.At the end I didn't loose any money instead I got about 18k + in the deal.
I can only deal on chams next time at 20k entry price.

Beside 21-23kobo is 10% up.
The total charges in buy/sell is not up to 4%.
6% is still left and that's where that little profit for chicken and rice came from.

ositadima1:
Lately I have been applying some simple stats to my stock analysis, parameters like mean and standard deviation. Hehe, bollinger bands comes to mind.

Despite the fact that stock prices (also stock returns) are time series, they can be analysed statistically as distribution of values with good predictive success.

I came across a post on tradingview that discussed a few stats terms in very simple language. Read d excerpt below. Enjoy.

Mean:

The first Raw Moment is the Mean. It indicates the central tendency of a distribution. People talk about the Mean a lot in trading when referring to moving averages and mean reversion. But when we talk about the mean in our previous scripts, we are talking about the mean of returns. So when indicators like the Hurst Exponent , Durbin Watson Stats or Variance Ratio Test show negative autocorrelation, which implies mean reversion, the mean we are refering to is the Mean of returns, not the Mean of price. When they target the mean to revert, they shouldn't be targeting the SMA of price. They should target the returns to the mean of returns. People usually use the mean of returns as an expected value of stock returns. They find the average for past performance and using that to get an idea of where the share price might go next.

Variance:

The second Central Moment is the Variance. It indicates the spread of data around the Mean. People usually use Variance or the square root of Variance, which is the standard deviation to measure volatility . They sometimes define risk as the standard deviation of returns. While it may not be a measurement of risk (as we will explain later), it's a decent measurement of volatility . Since it's squared deviation from the Mean (second moment), the value is always positive, and power makes the smaller deviation smaller and the larger deviation larger. We should use sample variance and standard deviation, as I mentioned before. The difference is just divided by n or n -1.

Skewness:

The third Standardized Moment is Skewness. It measures the asymmetry of the distribution. The reason why it's called standardized moments is that it not only raised the deviation to the power of three in the nominator, it divides the standard deviation to the power of three to standardize the value. It's easier to compare the value of skewness with other distributions when it's standardized. The formula I just described is for population skewness. For sample skewness, it has to adjust the degrees of freedom to make it unbiased, which you can see in the code.

When skewness is 0, the distribution is perfectly symmetric. A normal distribution has a skewness of 0. (any symmetric distribution has a skewness of 0). But as you can see from the distribution chart, the returns are not perfectly symmetric. An easy way to know if the distribution is positively skewed (skewed right) or negatively skewed (skewed left) is by looking at its tails.
If extreme values happen more in the left tail, then it's left-skewed (longer left tail).
If the extreme value happens more in the right tail, then it's right-skewed (longer right tail).
A right-skewed distribution means there are more very large positive returns than negative returns in the sample. And left-skewed means there are more very large negative returns than positive returns in the sample.

Returns are more often negatively skewed because the market usually sell-off faster due to panic.

Kurtosis:

The fourth Standardize Moment is Kurtosis . It measures the "tailedness" in the distribution. As I mentioned in the skewness calculation, it also divides the fourth power of deviation by the fourth power of standard deviation to standardize the value. And it requires even more adjustments to degrees of freedom in order to make it unbiased for sample kurtosis .

The kurtosis value we display here is the excess kurtosis. The normal distribution has a kurtosis of 3. The excess kurtosis = kurtosis - 3.
When excess kurtosis is around 0, it has the same tail as normal distribution, and it's called Mesokurtic.
When excess kurtosis > 0, It has a fatter tail than normal distribution, and it's called Leptokurtic. There are more extremely large returns in the tails.
When excess kurtosis < 0. It has a thinner tail than the normal distribution, and it's called platykurtic. There are fewer extremely large returns in the tails.
Kurtosis doesn't have an upper bound, and the most platykurtic distribution is Bernoulli distribution with ex. kurtosis of -2. (even though the least platykurtic distribution kurtosis is -2, you can still get a value lower than -2 when you measure sample kurtosis .)
Kurtosis is sometimes referred to as volatility of volatility . It measures the tail risk or sometimes called kurtosis risk. Because a lot of statistical models assume a normal distribution, and when there's positive kurtosis , then they will underestimate the risk of fat tails. Market returns are usually leptokurtic due to volatility clustering (smaller returns cluster with smaller returns makes a higher peak, and extreme returns clusters make fatter tails). The kurtosis risk cannot be explained by variance or standard deviation because higher moments cannot be explained by lower moments. There can be two data sets with the same variance but different kurtosis . Therefore kurtosis explains more potential risk than the variance.

There's a misconception about kurtosis . Many people think kurtosis measures the peakedness of a distribution. However, this is NOT the case. There are examples of distribution that has a lower peak than normal distribution but has higher kurtosis . In general, kurtosis measures mostly the tail of the distribution. It uses the fourth power in the calculation. Therefore a large value in the tail has much more effect on kurtosis than the small value in the middle.

#Systematic Trader

OBAGADAFFI:
You bought @ 21kobo and sold @ 23kobo.

Hope you included charges and slippages.

megawealth01:
He'd still make gains... That's 10%... Depending on his broker he'd be left with 5%

Cadillac15:
Na Nigerian market you dey post all this long grammar for bah?

E be like you newly register for CFA, so body still dey shack you. You go soon calm down when NSE do you strong thing

Go and read up market efficiency theory. I will summarize it for you.

1 Weak form efficient market - NSE belongs here.
In such markets, fundamental analysis and insider information are very useful, but technical analysis is USELESS.

2. Semi-strong form efficient markets - fundamental analysis becomes useless in addition to technical analysis.

3. Strong form efficient markets - insider information also becomes useless.

In NSE, one MD can scatter the chart you are using overnight, by arbitrarily reducing or not paying dividend, even with big profit declared (e.g UBA). This is the least of what can happen to you in NSE.
Wale Tinubu and others are on another level

So leave big grammar, deal with the price and volume information that is available to you as an outsider, and pray for luck.

No western investment strategy can work effectively in NSE as it is a field, filled with lawless wolves

And by the way, NSE has zero in fundamental analysis as the root metric which is good corporate governance in the constituent companies is highly lacking. So every other thing that looks like fundamental is Zero.

Cadillac15:
Na Nigerian market you dey post all this long grammar for bah?

E be like you newly register for CFA, so body still dey shack you. You go soon calm down when NSE do you strong thing

Go and read up market efficiency theory. I will summarize it for you.

1 Weak form efficient market - NSE belongs here.
In such markets, fundamental analysis and insider information are very useful, but technical analysis is USELESS.

2. Semi-strong form efficient markets - fundamental analysis becomes useless in addition to technical analysis.

3. Strong form efficient markets - insider information also becomes useless.

In NSE, one MD can scatter the chart you are using overnight, by arbitrarily reducing or not paying dividend, even with big profit declared (e.g UBA). This is the least of what can happen to you in NSE.
Wale Tinubu and others are on another level

So leave big grammar, deal with the price and volume information that is available to you as an outsider, and pray for luck.

No western investment strategy can work effectively in NSE as it is a field, filled with lawless wolves

And by the way, NSE has zero in fundamental analysis as the root metric which is good corporate governance in the constituent companies is highly lacking. So every other thing that looks like fundamental is Zero.

Cadillac15:
In NSE, one MD can scatter the chart you are using overnight , by arbitrarily reducing or not paying dividend, even with big profit declared (e.g UBA). This is the least of what can happen to you in NSE.
Wale Tinubu and others are on another level

Cadillac15:
Na Nigerian market you dey post all this long grammar for bah?

E be like you newly register for CFA, so body still dey shack you. You go soon calm down when NSE do you strong thing

Go and read up market efficiency theory. I will summarize it for you.

1 Weak form efficient market - NSE belongs here.
In such markets, fundamental analysis and insider information are very useful, but technical analysis is USELESS.

2. Semi-strong form efficient markets - fundamental analysis becomes useless in addition to technical analysis.

3. Strong form efficient markets - insider information also becomes useless.

In NSE, one MD can scatter the chart you are using overnight, by arbitrarily reducing or not paying dividend, even with big profit declared (e.g UBA). This is the least of what can happen to you in NSE.
Wale Tinubu and others are on another level

So leave big grammar, deal with the price and volume information that is available to you as an outsider, and pray for luck.

No western investment strategy can work effectively in NSE as it is a field, filled with lawless wolves

And by the way, NSE has zero in fundamental analysis as the root metric which is good corporate governance in the constituent companies is highly lacking. So every other thing that looks like fundamental is Zero.

ositadima1:
Let me start with I am currently listening to Dangerous by Jah Prayzah. Crazy intro.

I am not a technical analyst neither I aspire to be one. I am more like a data scientist, I try to use statistical methods to infare patterns from market data. I believe that whatever the market is doing and to some extent what it would do are encoded in its price movements.

By d way, market efficiency theory has been debunked several times, it is the inefficiencies in the market that give rise to alpha(excess returns).

emmanuelewumi:
A number of recent academic and professional journals in finance and investments disagree with the Efficient Market Theory.

ositadima1:
Let me start with I am currently listening to Dangerous by Jah Prayzah. Crazy intro.

I am not a technical analyst neither I aspire to be one. I am more like a data scientist, I try to use statistical methods to infare patterns from market data. I believe that whatever the market is doing and to some extent what it would do are encoded in its price movements.

By d way, market efficiency theory has been debunked several times, it is the inefficiencies in the market that give rise to alpha(excess returns).

ositadima1:
I have data (Closing, Opening, High, Low, Volume etc)going back 10 years for most stocks. I never noticed any chart scattering event. Can you mention a point in time when it happened and for which ticker?

maishai:
Lol

Don't be defensive and keep up d good work for this our platform

I'm still looking for a simple way to key into ur strategy

Problem now is dat I'm looking into acquiring real assets for now instead of securities

emmanuelewumi:
If you are asked to choose between 4 million units of Zenith bank shares and a block of 4units of 3 bedroom apartment at Gbagada Lagos which of the options will you go for?

emmanuelewumi:
If you are asked to choose between 4 million units of Zenith bank shares and a block of 4units of 3 bedroom apartment at Gbagada Lagos which of the options will you go for?

Ades1:
Is diversification allowed with Zenith? I'd hate to put all my eggs in one basket.....As for house, I just don't trust Tenants in Nigeria. The story can get too long