₦airaland Forum

Karlovich:
12M naira speaking from his minions.

PassingShot:
I read a NL thread https://www.nairaland.com/7077990/why-tinubu-lose-osinbajo-apc#up suggesting reasons why PYO will defeat BAT in the APC primary election to select who flies the ticket of the party in 2023 and I could not help but to laugh at the naivety and desperation of the writer. Well, without paying any attention to the weak and unfounded reasons he presented in his article, I make bold to advance the following arguments to conclude that Jagaban Borgu remains the only candidate who will win the primary contest, barring any last-minute jettisoning of primaries for consensus which is not even contained in the constitution of APC.

1. Tinubu’s political structure and machineries
Even, his political foes will attest to the fact that BAT has built a well-oiled political structure that has not only survived the best of political warriors in OBJ and GEJ (with federal might), his structure has endured the worst of political earthquake and has remained very solid and functioning. In the primary contest for the presidential candidate which will be decided by delegates from APC across the 36 states, Tinubu structure will come in hand to deliver the goods.

2. BAT’s political alliance
This is somewhat related to the first point but not entirely the same. In the course of single-handedly building and strengthening his political base (ACN), Tinubu it was who took ACN into alliance with CPC, ANPP, a faction of APGA and a faction of PDP. In fact, most political watchers agreed that the 2 most important figures in that successful alliance that produced APC are Buhari and Tinubu. The rest were only needed to make up the numbers and the spread. BAT has since that alliance built a working relationship with strong politicians in the north. The likes of Ganduje, Ribadu, Ado Dogawa, Ahmed Lawan, etc. are staunch Tinubu’s supporters who will deliver the delegates from that side of the country.

3. Neutrality of PMB
PMB remains a political juggernaut whose support and influence can, to some extent determine who wins the APC ticket. From what I have read and heard, it was this support that Osinbajo was looking for that delayed his declaration. Unfortunately for him, PMB did not assure him of anything, instead preferring to be neutral and asking all the contestants to work hard to win the ticket. While it is possible for PMB to have a preference for PYO (highly doubtful), Buhari has demonstrated many times that he handles situations like this with utmost maturity and fairness to all involved. If he has forgotten how BAT deployed his resources to make him defeat Atiku and Kwankwaso in 2014 and to win the presidency in 2015 and 2019, he will surely be reminded by his close allies like Ganduje and the Senate President of this fact. And Buhari will choose to remain neutral. It is PYO who needs PMB so much and not the other way round.

4. Clear message of endorsement by the APC Senate and Rep Caucuses
Not many watchers of political development will have missed the enormous support Tinubu enjoys from the APC senators and representatives. They are not hiding it and they have been saying it loud and clear even to the hearing of PYO. You only need to watch the Senate session when BAT paid the APC caucus a visit to intimate them of his ambition. You can also listen to Ado Doguwa’s recent interview on the same subject
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqe6AQllcPA and here https://www.nairaland.com/7079123/doguwa-speaks-bola-tinubus-aspiration. I also read that of the seventy-something invited by PYO for Iftar, only 24 or so honored the invitation with majority of them spotting facemask with BAT logo. These speak volume about their position. They are the people that matter in this election and they are not politicians you can intimidate to change their mind. They believe in BAT and they are ready to reward his past support for them too.

5. Osinbajo has no political structure
After seven years of being the VP of Nigeria, it is a fact that PYO has no political base or structure of note with which he can be guaranteed of delegates votes. This is someone who lost his polling booth in the last general election. Irrespective of whatever sentiment anyone in the party top hierarchy may want to have for a PYO candidacy, they will realize what a dangerous option his candidacy represents for their party and they will bury the thought without wasting time.

6. Perception of PYO as someone who cannot be trusted
Like it or not, Osinbajo’s declaration has portrayed him as someone who cannot be relied upon. In politics, the currency is loyalty and anyone who is perceived as not loyal is usually avoided by those who matter. Even among those currently propping the professor on, there are those who will be murmuring within their heart that the VP cannot be trusted not to betray them at some point, especially if he becomes president and thus untouchable. I will personally be weary of such character too. Yes, he has the constitutional right to contest but he has thrown morality to the dustbin by standing up to challenge his one-time political mentor. I read a piece about how Tiinubu reluctantly agreed for Osinbajo to be the running mate to PMB out of the three names suggested to him. The fact that BAT’s choice was still going to be picked and that he eventually agreed to PYO being named as the running mate is enough for our erstwhile star boy to abandon his ambition for BAT’s.

Anyway, let’s see how far the support of sycophants and traducers of Tinubu can carry him in his quest to wrestle APC’s ticket from Jagaban.

Passingshot (O.S. Olayiwola)

dedonfranco:
It will be difficult for Osinbajo to beat Tinubu in APC primary.

Tinubu has a political structure of over 25 years

Osinbajo is a VC president of Nigeria (Federal)

dedonfranco:
It will be difficult for Osinbajo to beat Tinubu in APC primary.

Tinubu has a political structure of over 25 years

Osinbajo is a VC president of Nigeria (Federal)

treatise:
That's why CONSENSUS is on the card.

PassingShot:
I read a NL thread https://www.nairaland.com/7077990/why-tinubu-lose-osinbajo-apc#up suggesting reasons why PYO will defeat BAT in the APC primary election to select who flies the ticket of the party in 2023 and I could not help but to laugh at the naivety and desperation of the writer.

Passingshot (O.S. Olayiwola)

PassingShot:
I read a NL thread https://www.nairaland.com/7077990/why-tinubu-lose-osinbajo-apc#up suggesting reasons why PYO will defeat BAT in the APC primary election to select who flies the ticket of the party in 2023 and I could not help but to laugh at the naivety and desperation of the writer. Well, without paying any attention to the weak and unfounded reasons he presented in his article, I make bold to advance the following arguments to conclude that Jagaban Borgu remains the only candidate who will win the primary contest, barring any last-minute jettisoning of primaries for consensus which is not even contained in the constitution of APC.

1. Tinubu’s political structure and machineries
Even, his political foes will attest to the fact that BAT has built a well-oiled political structure that has not only survived the best of political warriors in OBJ and GEJ (with federal might), his structure has endured the worst of political earthquake and has remained very solid and functioning. In the primary contest for the presidential candidate which will be decided by delegates from APC across the 36 states, Tinubu structure will come in hand to deliver the goods.

2. BAT’s political alliance
This is somewhat related to the first point but not entirely the same. In the course of single-handedly building and strengthening his political base (ACN), Tinubu it was who took ACN into alliance with CPC, ANPP, a faction of APGA and a faction of PDP. In fact, most political watchers agreed that the 2 most important figures in that successful alliance that produced APC are Buhari and Tinubu. The rest were only needed to make up the numbers and the spread. BAT has since that alliance built a working relationship with strong politicians in the north. The likes of Ganduje, Ribadu, Ado Dogawa, Ahmed Lawan, etc. are staunch Tinubu’s supporters who will deliver the delegates from that side of the country.

3. Neutrality of PMB
PMB remains a political juggernaut whose support and influence can, to some extent determine who wins the APC ticket. From what I have read and heard, it was this support that Osinbajo was looking for that delayed his declaration. Unfortunately for him, PMB did not assure him of anything, instead preferring to be neutral and asking all the contestants to work hard to win the ticket. While it is possible for PMB to have a preference for PYO (highly doubtful), Buhari has demonstrated many times that he handles situations like this with utmost maturity and fairness to all involved. If he has forgotten how BAT deployed his resources to make him defeat Atiku and Kwankwaso in 2014 and to win the presidency in 2015 and 2019, he will surely be reminded by his close allies like Ganduje and the Senate President of this fact. And Buhari will choose to remain neutral. It is PYO who needs PMB so much and not the other way round.

4. Clear message of endorsement by the APC Senate and Rep Caucuses
Not many watchers of political development will have missed the enormous support Tinubu enjoys from the APC senators and representatives. They are not hiding it and they have been saying it loud and clear even to the hearing of PYO. You only need to watch the Senate session when BAT paid the APC caucus a visit to intimate them of his ambition. You can also listen to Ado Doguwa’s recent interview on the same subject
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqe6AQllcPA and here https://www.nairaland.com/7079123/doguwa-speaks-bola-tinubus-aspiration. I also read that of the seventy-something invited by PYO for Iftar, only 24 or so honored the invitation with majority of them spotting facemask with BAT logo. These speak volume about their position. They are the people that matter in this election and they are not politicians you can intimidate to change their mind. They believe in BAT and they are ready to reward his past support for them too.

5. Osinbajo has no political structure
After seven years of being the VP of Nigeria, it is a fact that PYO has no political base or structure of note with which he can be guaranteed of delegates votes. This is someone who lost his polling booth in the last general election. Irrespective of whatever sentiment anyone in the party top hierarchy may want to have for a PYO candidacy, they will realize what a dangerous option his candidacy represents for their party and they will bury the thought without wasting time.

6. Perception of PYO as someone who cannot be trusted
Like it or not, Osinbajo’s declaration has portrayed him as someone who cannot be relied upon. In politics, the currency is loyalty and anyone who is perceived as not loyal is usually avoided by those who matter. Even among those currently propping the professor on, there are those who will be murmuring within their heart that the VP cannot be trusted not to betray them at some point, especially if he becomes president and thus untouchable. I will personally be weary of such character too. Yes, he has the constitutional right to contest but he has thrown morality to the dustbin by standing up to challenge his one-time political mentor. I read a piece about how Tiinubu reluctantly agreed for Osinbajo to be the running mate to PMB out of the three names suggested to him. The fact that BAT’s choice was still going to be picked and that he eventually agreed to PYO being named as the running mate is enough for our erstwhile star boy to abandon his ambition for BAT’s.

Anyway, let’s see how far the support of sycophants and traducers of Tinubu can carry him in his quest to wrestle APC’s ticket from Jagaban.

Passingshot (O.S. Olayiwola)

chloride6:
Whoever secures Northern Votes will win.

Period..