PassingShot: I read a NL thread https://www.nairaland.com/7077990/why-tinubu-lose-osinbajo-apc#up suggesting reasons why PYO will defeat BAT in the APC primary election to select who flies the ticket of the party in 2023 and I could not help but to laugh at the naivety and desperation of the writer. Well, without paying any attention to the weak and unfounded reasons he presented in his article, I make bold to advance the following arguments to conclude that Jagaban Borgu remains the only candidate who will win the primary contest, barring any last-minute jettisoning of primaries for consensus which is not even contained in the constitution of APC.
1. Tinubu’s political structure and machineries Even, his political foes will attest to the fact that BAT has built a well-oiled political structure that has not only survived the best of political warriors in OBJ and GEJ (with federal might), his structure has endured the worst of political earthquake and has remained very solid and functioning. In the primary contest for the presidential candidate which will be decided by delegates from APC across the 36 states, Tinubu structure will come in hand to deliver the goods.
2. BAT’s political alliance This is somewhat related to the first point but not entirely the same. In the course of single-handedly building and strengthening his political base (ACN), Tinubu it was who took ACN into alliance with CPC, ANPP, a faction of APGA and a faction of PDP. In fact, most political watchers agreed that the 2 most important figures in that successful alliance that produced APC are Buhari and Tinubu. The rest were only needed to make up the numbers and the spread. BAT has since that alliance built a working relationship with strong politicians in the north. The likes of Ganduje, Ribadu, Ado Dogawa, Ahmed Lawan, etc. are staunch Tinubu’s supporters who will deliver the delegates from that side of the country.
3. Neutrality of PMB PMB remains a political juggernaut whose support and influence can, to some extent determine who wins the APC ticket. From what I have read and heard, it was this support that Osinbajo was looking for that delayed his declaration. Unfortunately for him, PMB did not assure him of anything, instead preferring to be neutral and asking all the contestants to work hard to win the ticket. While it is possible for PMB to have a preference for PYO (highly doubtful), Buhari has demonstrated many times that he handles situations like this with utmost maturity and fairness to all involved. If he has forgotten how BAT deployed his resources to make him defeat Atiku and Kwankwaso in 2014 and to win the presidency in 2015 and 2019, he will surely be reminded by his close allies like Ganduje and the Senate President of this fact. And Buhari will choose to remain neutral. It is PYO who needs PMB so much and not the other way round.
4. Clear message of endorsement by the APC Senate and Rep Caucuses Not many watchers of political development will have missed the enormous support Tinubu enjoys from the APC senators and representatives. They are not hiding it and they have been saying it loud and clear even to the hearing of PYO. You only need to watch the Senate session when BAT paid the APC caucus a visit to intimate them of his ambition. You can also listen to Ado Doguwa’s recent interview on the same subject https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqe6AQllcPA and here https://www.nairaland.com/7079123/doguwa-speaks-bola-tinubus-aspiration. I also read that of the seventy-something invited by PYO for Iftar, only 24 or so honored the invitation with majority of them spotting facemask with BAT logo. These speak volume about their position. They are the people that matter in this election and they are not politicians you can intimidate to change their mind. They believe in BAT and they are ready to reward his past support for them too.
5. Osinbajo has no political structure After seven years of being the VP of Nigeria, it is a fact that PYO has no political base or structure of note with which he can be guaranteed of delegates votes. This is someone who lost his polling booth in the last general election. Irrespective of whatever sentiment anyone in the party top hierarchy may want to have for a PYO candidacy, they will realize what a dangerous option his candidacy represents for their party and they will bury the thought without wasting time.
6. Perception of PYO as someone who cannot be trusted Like it or not, Osinbajo’s declaration has portrayed him as someone who cannot be relied upon. In politics, the currency is loyalty and anyone who is perceived as not loyal is usually avoided by those who matter. Even among those currently propping the professor on, there are those who will be murmuring within their heart that the VP cannot be trusted not to betray them at some point, especially if he becomes president and thus untouchable. I will personally be weary of such character too. Yes, he has the constitutional right to contest but he has thrown morality to the dustbin by standing up to challenge his one-time political mentor. I read a piece about how Tiinubu reluctantly agreed for Osinbajo to be the running mate to PMB out of the three names suggested to him. The fact that BAT’s choice was still going to be picked and that he eventually agreed to PYO being named as the running mate is enough for our erstwhile star boy to abandon his ambition for BAT’s.
Anyway, let’s see how far the support of sycophants and traducers of Tinubu can carry him in his quest to wrestle APC’s ticket from Jagaban.
Passingshot (O.S. Olayiwola)
Tinubu' political structure begins and ends in south west. He doesn't have that clip on any parts of the north, south south or south east.
Even he's so called structure in the west is shacky because some of his loyalists may show interest to contest except if he's willing to buy their ambition.
The most of these northern politicians you see around tinubu are just want to cash out from the contents of his bullion vans.
This is my take, neither tinubu, osibanjo nor atiki has what it takes to fix this country. But if I must choose, Osibanjo is more qualified to rule this country.
Tinibu believes in money bags, but he's soon forgot that buhari has not forgotten how he betrayed him in 2011.
Buhari also sees him as very corrupt individual.
Left for buhari, it will be over his dead body to see tinubu become the next president of this country.
Upworkwriter007: How many of them have efcc cases? you'll send Efcc against the rep and senate cacus? really? everyone? You can't get a consensus without Tinubu agreeing to it.
Asiwaju Jagaban is the only contestant that have structure to win the primaries himself without needing anyone to help him through the back door. The Meth addicts that suddenly started supporting Osinbajo are just playing the normal divison game. If Osinbajo gets the ticket, they will suddenly start hating on the man too, the current support is all a ruse.
However, anyone of the two that eventually gets the ticket will get our support. Meth addicts are in for a great surprise.
tunapawizzy: Your No. 3 is wrong or not exactly valid.... PYO is PMBs choice and I think you are the only one who does not see this, except you are just using this your write-up to sway opinion of voters.......Sadly there will be a party primary election before, I agree with you that Tinubu will win the votes of delegates, because of the financial warchest and ofcourse his political might and wit(no one can doubt that). PMB has the structure of the party(i.e. how the party will produce its candidate)......Already Tinubu loyalists that understand politics are already saying Tinubu will defeat anybody "IN A PRIMARY ELECTION". There is a reason they are putting so much emphasis on "in a primary". You just watch how the leadership of the party will eventually opt for a consensus candidate....Sadly or thankfully(depending on where u stand) it will be too late for Tinubu to float a new party. I dont ever see him decamping to PDP
How come only you knew odale is Buhari's choice when even 5he Buhari has been quiet about that.
You make me laugh when you said Buhari nominated odale snake. Northerners hate any form of betrayals. and Buhari is a northerner.
Tinubu is just spending a tiny fraction of what he made from Lagos. He will soon wear out by the time the real politicking kicks, he is a rookie when it comes to contesting presidential elections. Experienced ones like Uzor Kalu and Rochas are just watching. Anyway the battle is btw CRA and others and not BAT. CRA is most experienced and qualified among APC contestants.He will most likely emerge.
Well articulated.. But one point is missing.. Anyone President Buhari supports will emerge The APC presidential candidate.. Does Asiwaju enjoy this Crucial support of Mr President?? All will Depend on this Crucial Support
Where's he proud to be Yoruba? Someone that neglected d killings of Yoruba by the Fulani. Make una stop this una suffering and smiling attitude ooo. Yorùbá Nation, No going back!!!!!!!!!
I'm might not be a supporter of Osibanjo but I feel that STRUCTURE can be inherited or Bought. Moreso, why would PYO all of a sudden want what BAT wants? He as political backing of some strong persons (you know who those are).
Bullet01: All these for a man that kept mute while his fellow Yoruba men are killed and maim only to find his voice when election time is close. I wonder how we think in this nation. May Allah choose right for us anyway.
The VP that was part of the government, what particular thing did he do?
What's the difference between party primary and consensus?
Party primary is geared toward selecting a candidate for an electoral position but a consensus candidate could be opted for in the course of the primary after horse trading.
Musauzor: On the PMB neutrality, that guy got it all wrong. In the political history of Nigeria since 1999, no incumbent has ever shown a neutral or dispassionate disposition in who succeeds him. PMB has a candidate in mind and that candidate will surely win the presidential primaries whether by hook or by crook.
PMB doesn’t have any political clout, like OBJ et al. Isn’t it obvious?
Trust me, once he’s done with his terms in office, you’ll hardly hear of him.
Party primary is geared toward selecting a candidate for an electoral position but a consensus candidate could be opted for in the course of the primary after horse trading.
Urm, is it same people, delegates that conduct primary and consensus?
