₦airaland Forum

Aufbauh:
Seriously I don't know why people can't decode that Prof. Yemi Osinbajo was the 'closet candidate' of PMB.

The gut & courage of Osinbajo to openly challenge his erstwhile benefactor can only be motivated by a mortal superior power backing, who is Mr. President.
No one else could have prompted him out for this challenge, not even an audible voice from God. This is why Osinbajo shouldn't be underrated in this contest.

It is also important to note that the political dynamics of 2023 will be entirely different from 2019. This time around PMB will be interested in who succeeds him. He has already shown that through the election of the APC national executives.

The Nigeria leadership factor shouldn't be wished away. We've already concluded that all Nigeria politicians are the same so, PMB may equally be tempted to play god. That means that PMB to a large extent he'll play pertinent role in who emerges. We should not also forget that he will still remain the president after the primaries for couple of months, so it'll be extremely difficult for governors especially from the north to go against his wish.

Again much is always said about political structure but we shouldn't forget that 'structure' can be built, inherited and bought.

Conclusively this is politics and anything can happen to change the balance of power. One meeting of like minds with Mr President can send BAT to oblivion.

"Absolute power does not only corrupt but attract the corruptible"- Frank Herbert

PassingShot:
I read a NL thread https://www.nairaland.com/7077990/why-tinubu-lose-osinbajo-apc#up suggesting reasons why PYO will defeat BAT in the APC primary election to select who flies the ticket of the party in 2023 and I could not help but to laugh at the naivety and desperation of the writer. Well, without paying any attention to the weak and unfounded reasons he presented in his article, I make bold to advance the following arguments to conclude that Jagaban Borgu remains the only candidate who will win the primary contest, barring any last-minute jettisoning of primaries for consensus which is not even contained in the constitution of APC.

1. Tinubu’s political structure and machineries
Even, his political foes will attest to the fact that BAT has built a well-oiled political structure that has not only survived the best of political warriors in OBJ and GEJ (with federal might), his structure has endured the worst of political earthquake and has remained very solid and functioning. In the primary contest for the presidential candidate which will be decided by delegates from APC across the 36 states, Tinubu structure will come in hand to deliver the goods.

2. BAT’s political alliance
This is somewhat related to the first point but not entirely the same. In the course of single-handedly building and strengthening his political base (ACN), Tinubu it was who took ACN into alliance with CPC, ANPP, a faction of APGA and a faction of PDP. In fact, most political watchers agreed that the 2 most important figures in that successful alliance that produced APC are Buhari and Tinubu. The rest were only needed to make up the numbers and the spread. BAT has since that alliance built a working relationship with strong politicians in the north. The likes of Ganduje, Ribadu, Ado Dogawa, Ahmed Lawan, etc. are staunch Tinubu’s supporters who will deliver the delegates from that side of the country.

3. Neutrality of PMB
PMB remains a political juggernaut whose support and influence can, to some extent determine who wins the APC ticket. From what I have read and heard, it was this support that Osinbajo was looking for that delayed his declaration. Unfortunately for him, PMB did not assure him of anything, instead preferring to be neutral and asking all the contestants to work hard to win the ticket. While it is possible for PMB to have a preference for PYO (highly doubtful), Buhari has demonstrated many times that he handles situations like this with utmost maturity and fairness to all involved. If he has forgotten how BAT deployed his resources to make him defeat Atiku and Kwankwaso in 2014 and to win the presidency in 2015 and 2019, he will surely be reminded by his close allies like Ganduje and the Senate President of this fact. And Buhari will choose to remain neutral. It is PYO who needs PMB so much and not the other way round.

4. Clear message of endorsement by the APC Senate and Rep Caucuses
Not many watchers of political development will have missed the enormous support Tinubu enjoys from the APC senators and representatives. They are not hiding it and they have been saying it loud and clear even to the hearing of PYO. You only need to watch the Senate session when BAT paid the APC caucus a visit to intimate them of his ambition. You can also listen to Ado Doguwa’s recent interview on the same subject
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqe6AQllcPA and here https://www.nairaland.com/7079123/doguwa-speaks-bola-tinubus-aspiration. I also read that of the seventy-something invited by PYO for Iftar, only 24 or so honored the invitation with majority of them spotting facemask with BAT logo. These speak volume about their position. They are the people that matter in this election and they are not politicians you can intimidate to change their mind. They believe in BAT and they are ready to reward his past support for them too.

5. Osinbajo has no political structure
After seven years of being the VP of Nigeria, it is a fact that PYO has no political base or structure of note with which he can be guaranteed of delegates votes. This is someone who lost his polling booth in the last general election. Irrespective of whatever sentiment anyone in the party top hierarchy may want to have for a PYO candidacy, they will realize what a dangerous option his candidacy represents for their party and they will bury the thought without wasting time.

6. Perception of PYO as someone who cannot be trusted
Like it or not, Osinbajo’s declaration has portrayed him as someone who cannot be relied upon. In politics, the currency is loyalty and anyone who is perceived as not loyal is usually avoided by those who matter. Even among those currently propping the professor on, there are those who will be murmuring within their heart that the VP cannot be trusted not to betray them at some point, especially if he becomes president and thus untouchable. I will personally be weary of such character too. Yes, he has the constitutional right to contest but he has thrown morality to the dustbin by standing up to challenge his one-time political mentor. I read a piece about how Tiinubu reluctantly agreed for Osinbajo to be the running mate to PMB out of the three names suggested to him. The fact that BAT’s choice was still going to be picked and that he eventually agreed to PYO being named as the running mate is enough for our erstwhile star boy to abandon his ambition for BAT’s.

Anyway, let’s see how far the support of sycophants and traducers of Tinubu can carry him in his quest to wrestle APC’s ticket from Jagaban.

Passingshot (O.S. Olayiwola)

Aufbauh:
Seriously I don't know why people can't decode that Prof. Yemi Osinbajo was the 'closet candidate' of PMB.

The gut & courage of Osinbajo to openly challenge his erstwhile benefactor can only be motivated by a mortal superior power backing, who is Mr. President.
No one else could have prompted him out for this challenge, not even an audible voice from God. This is why Osinbajo shouldn't be underrated in this contest.

It is also important to note that the political dynamics of 2023 will be entirely different from 2019. This time around PMB will be interested in who succeeds him. He has already shown that through the election of the APC national executives.

The Nigeria leadership factor shouldn't be wished away. We've already concluded that all Nigeria politicians are the same so, PMB may equally be tempted to play god. That means that PMB to a large extent he'll play pertinent role in who emerges. We should not also forget that he will still remain the president after the primaries for couple of months, so it'll be extremely difficult for governors especially from the north to go against his wish.

Again much is always said about political structure but we shouldn't forget that 'structure' can be built, inherited and bought.

Conclusively this is politics and anything can happen to change the balance of power. One meeting of like minds with Mr President can send BAT to oblivion.

"Absolute power does not only corrupt but attract the corruptible"- Frank Herbert

slawormiir:
Damnnn niggar

He go shock thier two

PassingShot:
I read a NL thread https://www.nairaland.com/7077990/why-tinubu-lose-osinbajo-apc#up suggesting reasons why PYO will defeat BAT in the APC primary election to select who flies the ticket of the party in 2023 and I could not help but to laugh at the naivety and desperation

Passingshot (O.S. Olayiwola)

SQLmastar:
The only reason I would want Tinubu to win presidency is so that I could benefit from contracts. I'm currently dating his niece �

shinealight:
You seem to forget how Buhari himself tried and failed three times before he was bailed out by BAT. He even had to rely on BAT again in 2019 to win re-election courtesy of BAT’s Bullion Vans. The President is smart enough to know that APC will likely lose in 2023 if BAT is completely alienated. It’s a game of chess but not everyone is willing to follow Buhari blindly to his retirement home in Daura ….or is it Kaduna that’s inviting him now.

Aufbauh:
Seriously I don't know why people can't decode that Prof. Yemi Osinbajo was the 'closet candidate' of PMB.

The gut & courage of Osinbajo to openly challenge his erstwhile benefactor can only be motivated by a mortal superior power backing, who is Mr. President.
No one else could have prompted him out for this challenge, not even an audible voice from God. This is why Osinbajo shouldn't be underrated in this contest.

It is also important to note that the political dynamics of 2023 will be entirely different from 2019. This time around PMB will be interested in who succeeds him. He has already shown that through the election of the APC national executives.

The Nigeria leadership factor shouldn't be wished away. We've already concluded that all Nigeria politicians are the same so, PMB may equally be tempted to play god. That means that PMB to a large extent he'll play pertinent role in who emerges. We should not also forget that he will still remain the president after the primaries for couple of months, so it'll be extremely difficult for governors especially from the north to go against his wish.

Again much is always said about political structure but we shouldn't forget that 'structure' can be built, inherited and bought.

Conclusively this is politics and anything can happen to change the balance of power. One meeting of like minds with Mr President can send BAT to oblivion.

"Absolute power does not only corrupt but attract the corruptible"- Frank Herbert

Fiscus105:
Oga u dnt need to replying those that are consoling themselves on impending defeat most especially at primary, infact, events of last 4 months about how Buhari deliberately pushing Osinbanjo to different official events are enough for deaf to ear loudly.

If you check PMB's cabinet, larger percentage of those who worked with in him in first term are not only in the cabinet now but also in the same ministry. It's enough for a wise to know that Buhari strongly believes in continuity.

What about CBN? First time one person will serve two terms.

They talked about structure, as if naija politicians are not the most infidelity and disloyal globally.

Those you see behind you, they will leave u unannounced at eleven hour. I think they should ask Eyitayo Jegede on Mimiko, about looking behind and see political structure disappearing and leave you to face ur own hurdle alone in politics. Not even northern politicians that are still much fear and respect Buhari in the north.

Siwel25:
Bullshit! Did U watch that Dogunwa interview? They're morally bound to deliver. He even calls it their civic responsibility. How much will Buhari give them for elections? U think they're pupils that Buhari will threaten with cane? They know where their bread has been buttered. U think Buhari will intimidate someone like Yankassai and Senator Abu Ibrahim? It's not everyone that will do 'an Osinbajo'!

Mbsuxces:
OP am highly disappointed in people of your kind that have no love for this dying country... We have experienced the worst government in recent time and you are still campaigning for the WORST@BAT... Am not for anybody but for a sound and devoted Nigeria that have the love of masses at heart. TINUBU is a No No No, He has pockets Lagos and he will do same at federal level that will be disastrous .. Peter Obi, Fashola, Osinbajo are good market... Party does not matter but youth should go for better candidates.

Sannisege:
So PMB has the structure of the party and he had to [b]lobby hard [/b]for consensus for his candidate to emerge chairman. Keep on deceiving yourself. Moreover you are only assuming that Osinbajo is Buhari's candidate and as they say, assumption is the mother of all fvck ups.

subsidywise18:
I want APC and PDP out so this opinion does not matter.

But OP is very very right, either way.

Osibanjo cannot win because he is the classic Nigerian technocrat. Most technocrats in Nigeria, North or South, don't love going into politics properly...only a few (El Rufai, Fashola, Obi, etc ) go into big time politics. And the three I have mentioned all started out as houseboys to big men, and are now growing on their own...except Fashola who is keeping quiet.

At the end, classic Nigerian technocrats don't win. They are the kids who when they were in school, did very well in their academics, and got sent to the big city to graduate from university, and get a good job. Meanwhile, the dull kids stayed at home...and when the time came for their people to look for good leaders, that's when the people looked at the available ones...and it was the dull kids. (Rarely, intelligent kids touch base...eg Tinubu and Obi, but those are rare).

And the technocrats don't go home, don't touch base, don't show face. Then one day they find out that the dull kids are now their leaders and they start grumbling. But why should we grumble? The dull kids were sharp enough to realize that leadership is a result of being available..and when they were available, they got the job.

So, osibanjo is not going to win. It is sad, but that is the way of Nigerian politics. Only way technocrats can win is by riding on the cottails of a big Nigerian politican...which is how Yaradua and GEJ got there. Normal political route? Sorry .We don't 'know' you, Master technocrat.


Modified

True story...one Hausa gent from Kaduna was complaining about no job after graduating with a degree in Mathematics. Meanwhile his primary school mate that he left behind in primary 6, who stopped school then, was now a councillor. Why wasn't he a councillor? Simple...while he was in the big city getting his degrees, when his people looked for a leader, he was nowhere. Meanhwile, his primary 6 dropout mate was.....

Moral for Nigerian 'technocrats'.

Wipper7000:
Did you forget that he has to go through primary first before facing Nigerians? In consensus every aspirant has to agree and if not it will be thrown open. you can't force consensus on all the aspirant, Otherwise such aspirant will go to court and APC will thrown out completely from participating in the election. I see PDP profiting from these. I did not see Tinubu stepping down for anybody. This is why I said PDP will gain from these if care is not taken.

IDeyNL:
According to a Yoruba Muslim.

It remains for Tinubu's bot accounts to continue with their automated response.

LegacyB:
My brother. Leave them . Let them continue in their self imposed ignorance. I can even say for free than Osinbajo I know would have been pleaded with by Buhari to contest. We all know that ordinary he won’t even want the seat on a good day.

Aufbauh:
Seriously I don't know why people can't decode that Prof. Yemi Osinbajo was the 'closet candidate' of PMB.

The gut & courage of Osinbajo to openly challenge his erstwhile benefactor can only be motivated by a mortal superior power backing, who is Mr. President.
No one else could have prompted him out for this challenge, not even an audible voice from God. This is why Osinbajo shouldn't be underrated in this contest.

It is also important to note that the political dynamics of 2023 will be entirely different from 2019. This time around PMB will be interested in who succeeds him. He has already shown that through the election of the APC national executives.

The Nigeria leadership factor shouldn't be wished away. We've already concluded that all Nigeria politicians are the same so, PMB may equally be tempted to play god. That means that PMB to a large extent he'll play pertinent role in who emerges. We should not also forget that he will still remain the president after the primaries for couple of months, so it'll be extremely difficult for governors especially from the north to go against his wish.

Again much is always said about political structure but we shouldn't forget that 'structure' can be built, inherited and bought.

Conclusively this is politics and anything can happen to change the balance of power. One meeting of like minds with Mr President can send BAT to oblivion.

"Absolute power does not only corrupt but attract the corruptible"- Frank Herbert

Aufbauh:
Seriously I don't know why people can't decode that Prof. Yemi Osinbajo was the 'closet candidate' of PMB.

The gut & courage of Osinbajo to openly challenge his erstwhile benefactor can only be motivated by a mortal superior power backing, who is Mr. President.
No one else could have prompted him out for this challenge, not even an audible voice from God. This is why Osinbajo shouldn't be underrated in this contest.

It is also important to note that the political dynamics of 2023 will be entirely different from 2019. This time around PMB will be interested in who succeeds him. He has already shown that through the election of the APC national executives.

The Nigeria leadership factor shouldn't be wished away. We've already concluded that all Nigeria politicians are the same so, PMB may equally be tempted to play god. That means that PMB to a large extent he'll play pertinent role in who emerges. We should not also forget that he will still remain the president after the primaries for couple of months, so it'll be extremely difficult for governors especially from the north to go against his wish.

Again much is always said about political structure but we shouldn't forget that 'structure' can be built, inherited and bought.

Conclusively this is politics and anything can happen to change the balance of power. One meeting of like minds with Mr President can send BAT to oblivion.

"Absolute power does not only corrupt but attract the corruptible"- Frank Herbert

Excuzeme:
To further buttress your Position, let me address some of the things the writer of the Article has claimed:

STRUCTURE: There was a time that Tinubu use to "boast" that he has the structure of APC and their "Database" firmly in his House!
Well, by a single stroke of magic, PMB rubbished his so-called Database and asked every member of APC to RE-REGISTER, thereby creating a New Database that is firmly in Buhari's hand. Even Tinubu, to the chagrin of everyone in APC, had to queue up to register as a New Member of APC, That is very humbling.

LOYALTY of APC members: This was first exemplified, when PMB removed Adams Oshiomole, a suspected loyal of Tinubu, from the Chairmanship of APC and imposed Bunni, a Northerner.
Then came the Edo election when Tinubu gave the "Order" that APC should be voted. Again, Edo which is a loyal APC state, simply rebuffed Tinubu's instruction, in their famous "Edo nor be Lagos" matra.
Again, this also played out in the recent APC Convention! Tinubu had his "list" of who should occupy where but PMB came-in and all that just fizzled out. EVERYONE at the Convention, simply lined up behind PMB's Choice. Tinubu was humbled.

We should not also forget that,despite Tinubu's attempt to use large sums of money to buy the Loyalty of Northerners, they simply will follow what "One of their own In-Power" says. That is How Northerners roll, as in "Rankah-dede mentality" and everyone will fall in-line.
Tinubu wont get the Loyalty he is hoping for, from these dudes.

The V.P Effect: Osinbajo has worked closely with PMB and in PMB's circle, Osinbajo is far more trusted and predictable, than Tinubu.

Age: Tinubu is credited with falsifying his age, going by the age of his deceased wife (when she died), the Age of his Junior SIster's Son (his Cousin who he imposed as Osun State Governor, Oyetola) and so, his recent health Challenges are normal for a very old person, irrespective of the "Official Age" he is putting forward. A lot of people beleive Nigeria does not need another sickly President who will spend out Forex on Medical Tourism, will be absent from work for most of the time, while his "Cabals" will be th one running the show, from behind the Curtains. Nigerians have learned.

But as long a APC is concerned, PMB once said that "somebody (Tinubu) cannot be sitting in Lagos and be telling us what to do. In annoyance, when PMB went to Lagos to open the Railway Terminus in Lagos Mainland, TInubu refused to attend such a joyous event, he rather slighted PMB by sending his Daughter! If we know PMB at all, we know he doe snot forgive such public slight.

Going by what happened at the recent APC Convention, dont be surprised that all the Senators and Political heavey Weights hobnobbing with Tinubu right now, will simply disappear on the day of choosing the APC Nominee and line up behind whoever PMB prefers.
Tinubu will only go home to sulk, afterwards.

Finally, in a sane society. if the contest in between Tinubu and Prof. Osinbajo, it should be a "No-Contest" because Osinbajo dwarfs Tinubu in all the critical areas that a Nigerian Leader, a leader who should take Nigeria into the digital age, should posses.
he is young, agile, healthy, experienced on the job at the highest level, (as VP), his Pedigree over the years, as we can see from his Resumee, is astounding!

But Nigeria is not a sane Society otherwise, someone who obviously has falsified his age, someone reputed to have Doctored Academic qualifications (Toronto Certificate), someone who is stealing the coffers of Lagos State dry, someone who has turned Yoruba Youths into "lazy, unproductive, Street Urchins" (a.ka. Agberoo, Area Boys, Election Thugs) so much so that they have sold all the Properties their Parents laboured for and left for them, to fund their Drug addiction, someone who is an Addict himself, someone who uses Violence to intimidate and kill opponents so he can win elections .... should not be anywhere near contesting for the President of Nigeria,

Whether Nigerians will reject God-fatherism, reject Poverty, reject "Generational Imposition of Political Posts", reject "Baba'sope" and embrace "Oto'gee", reject corrupt and extremely Greedy Political Leaders, whether Nigerians would reject "Killers-in-Power" ....

Or whether they will want to continue their poverty and under-development by voting those who have turned the South West Politics into a family affair to further enrich their own "Bullion Vans", time will tell.

TheDemola:
Oh so you believe there is morality in politics?

Funflipper:
Same buhari who clipped Osinbajo’s wings?

Siwel25:
Not everyone throws morality to the dogs. For instance, Tinubu stood with MKO till death. I am not the one who is even mentioning morality, the Northerners are insisting they have a moral burden. Even Abu Ibrahim said no one will trust his people if they don't deliver the Presidency to Jagaban. There's nowhere in history where people openly associate with an aspirant and turn back cos of an outgoing President. Especially a broke one like Buhari. You can be sure that 90 year old Tanko Yankassai will look Buhari in the face and tell him not to be an ingrate; You can be sure that Ganduje will deliver 95% of Kano votes. Same as Niger Governor.

Can Osinbajo sponsor the elections of 20 Legislators in the North? Can Buhari give each of them 10million naira? I expect Prof to step down at the venue of the primaries to save face. It's Jagaban's party and everyone knows he invited Prof to eat. It's Prof who will be seen as an opportunist and a dangerous person to be trusted.

shinealight:
You seem to forget how Buhari himself tried and failed three times before he was bailed out by BAT. He even had to rely on BAT again in 2019 to win re-election courtesy of BAT’s Bullion Vans. The President is smart enough to know that APC will likely lose in 2023 if BAT is completely alienated. It’s a game of chess but not everyone is willing to follow Buhari blindly to his retirement home in Daura ….or is it Kaduna that’s inviting him now.

trutharena:
God bless you OP.

Asiwaju Jagaban is the only contestant that have structure to win the primaries himself without needing anyone to help him through the back door.

The Meth addicts that suddenly started supporting Osinbajo are just playing the normal divison game. If Osinbajo gets the ticket, they will suddenly start hating on the man too, the current support is all a ruse.

However, anyone of the two that eventually gets the ticket will get our support. Meth addicts are in for a great surprise.

God bless Asiwaju Tinubu
God bless Osinbajo

LeoDeKing:
Tinubu oh, Osinbajo oh, anyone who emerges as the flagbearer will get 100% support from Nigerians.

What Nigerians don't want to see on the ballot is Emeka.