This permutation takes into cognizance the major factors that shape our elections in Nigeria, i.e ethnicity, religion, party loyalty and voter objectivity.
It also focuses on the three main contenders who stand realistic chances of clinching the race.

Analysis:
In the southwest, a combination of tribal loyalty and party factor will give Tinubu a win. While Atiku and Obi will share the rest equally. Atiku's share will majorly come from party loyalty while Obi's own will be from both tribal (ibos and others in lagos) and objectivity (yorubas who don't share the tribal sentiment).

In the Southeast and southsouth, fierce tribal loyalty will give Obi a big win (especially in the east) while Atiku will nick Tinubu to second place on account of party loyalty votes.

In the northeast, Atiku will take top spot narrowly edging Tinubu on account of religion and region of origin. But Tinubu will put up a good showing on account of his much loved Vice and strong party structure. Obi will have very minimal votes here.
But in the northwest, Atiku and Tinubu will swap places. This is on account of APC having a better party following and an appealing muslim-muslim ticket. Atiku will also do well as tribal and religious sentiments also favour him. Obi's perfomance will be most dismal here.

In the North central, party loyalty reigns supreme in this region for some inexplainable reasons. Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger are staunch APC states. Even Benue that has had it rough in this present regime somehow still give APC sizeable votes. For the religious factors, the Christian population isn't as substantial as people think. The four aforementioned states will give Tinubu a win in the region, while Atiku will come a close second on account of party structure and religious sentiments. And Obi a substantial 3rd on account of the bit of Christian sentiments.


OVERALL SUMMARY

Tinubu Atiku Obi
50% 25% 25% SW
8% 12% 80% SE
10% 15% 75% SS
42% 46% 12% NE
47% 45% 8% NW
40% 35% 25% NC

Verdict
The election is close to call, the actual number of voters that turn up will determine what these percentages will amount to in real numbers.
Tinubu seems to have a slight advantage as the areas he has good projections also historically post impressive turn outs. But whether they will be sufficiently motivated to for him is another thing altogether.
For Peter Obi, if Nigerians were more objective and less swayed by tribe, religion and party affiliations, he would have stood the best chances. But unfortunately, party loyalty is a big thing among a majority poor, uneducated population.
While for Atiku, he stands a realistic chance of upending Tinubu if he can manage to get tribe and religion to overtake party structure and loyalty in regions Tinubu looks set to take that he considers his backyard. And he has realized this and is going full throttle in that quest.
Inteesting times ahead.

In the NW, factor in Kwankwaso, he can cut a big percentage off the votes of all the voters.

wonder233:
This permutation takes into cognizance the major factors that shape our elections in Nigeria, i.e ethnicity, religion, party loyalty and voter objectivity.
It also focuses on the three main contenders who stand realistic chances of clinching the race.

Analysis:
In the southwest, a combination of tribal loyalty and party factor will give Tinubu a win. While Atiku and Obi will share the rest equally. Atiku's share will majorly come from party loyalty while Obi's own will be from both tribal (ibos and others in lagos) and objectivity (yorubas who don't share the tribal sentiment).

In the Southeast and southsouth, fierce tribal loyalty will give Obi a big win (especially in the east) while Atiku will nick Tinubu to second place on account of party loyalty votes.

In the northeast, Atiku will take top spot narrowly edging Tinubu on account of religion and region of origin. But Tinubu will put up a good showing on account of his much loved Vice and strong party structure. Obi will have very minimal votes here.
But in the northwest, Atiku and Tinubu will swap places. This is on account of APC having a better party following and an appealing muslim-muslim ticket. Atiku will also do well as tribal and religious sentiments also favour him. Obi's perfomance will be most dismal here.

In the North central, party loyalty reigns supreme in this region for some inexplainable reasons. Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger are staunch APC states. Even Benue that has had it rough in this present regime somehow still give APC sizeable votes. For the religious factors, the Christian population isn't as substantial as people think. The four aforementioned states will give Tinubu a win in the region, while Atiku will come a close second on account of party structure and religious sentiments. And Obi a substantial 3rd on account of the bit of Christian sentiments.


OVERALL SUMMARY

Tinubu Atiku Obi
50% 25% 25% SW
8% 12% 80% SE
10% 15% 75% SS
42% 46% 12% NE
47% 45% 8% NW
40% 35% 25% NC

Verdict
The election is close to call, the actual number of voters that turn up will determine what these percentages will amount to in real numbers.
Tinubu seems to have a slight advantage as the areas he has good projections also historically post impressive turn outs. But whether they will be sufficiently motivated to for him is another thing altogether.
For Peter Obi, if Nigerians were more objective and less swayed by tribe, religion and party affiliations, he would have stood the best chances. But unfortunately, party loyalty is a big thing among a majority poor, uneducated population.
While for Atiku, he stands a realistic chance of upending Tinubu if he can manage to get tribe and religion to overtake party structure and loyalty in regions Tinubu looks set to take that he considers his backyard. And he has realized this and is going full throttle in that quest.
Inteesting times ahead.

Nice effort! The reality is that Asiwaju will win and the gap over his opponents will be huuuge!
NE is going for Asiwaju due to Sen. Shettima.

The projection is realistic enough. It is the Obidients that I pity most, many of them would not even vote if there is file scarcity like we are experiencing presently

FreeStuffsNG:

Nice effort! The reality is that Asiwaju will win and the gap over his opponents will be huuuge!
NE is going for Asiwaju due to Sen. Shettima.

Senator shettima is very notorious in that region, and he is a dead weight that will cause APC to lose votes in the rest of the regions apart from NW and NE.

successmatters:




.

His political son is the current Governor of Borno, Prof. Zulum and he is resting on the political structure of Prof. Shettima which is the most dorminant in Borno till date.

Chief Ezeife went to beg him for a favour recently

FreeStuffsNG:
His political son is the current Governor of Borno, Prof. Zulum and he is resting on the political structure of Prof. Shettima which is the most dorminant in Borno till date.

Chief Ezeife went to beg him for a favour recently

Only that Borno doesn't make up the whole region, Adamawa, Yobe and Taraba are in that zone too?

successmatters:


Senator shettima is very notorious in that region, and he is a dead weight that will cause APC to lose votes in the rest of the regions apart from NW and NE.

Please explain this your statement. The sun is too hot to be cracking my brain on your post

successmatters:


Only that Borno doesn't make up the whole region, Adamawa, Yobe and Taraba are in that zone too?

Kanuri has the largest population in Borno and Yobe, the other 4 states has so many ethnic community just like SS that is going to make voting follows individual interest based on party loyality

Ttalk:


Kanuri has the largest population in Borno and Yobe, the other 4 states has so many ethnic community just like SS that is going to make voting follows individual interest based on party loyality

That's my points exactly, NE cannot go to any preferred candidate.

successmatters:


Only that Borno doesn't make up the whole region, Adamawa, Yobe and Taraba are in that zone too?

You are shifting from your earlier false and ignorant claim about Sen. Shettima. Siince you now realise that Borno is locked down for Asiwaju , I can address others.

Yobe is APC and the current Gov. Mai Buni was the immediate past caretaker chairman of APC so Yobecis APC.

Taraba is Jolly Nyame who is back in the state to work for APC using his political structure so Taraba is not a walkover for PDP again.
Adamawa is HE Atiku's base but APC is strong there as 2 of the 3 current Senators are APC members and Presidential elections with federal parliamentary elections hold same day and time.

successmatters:


Senator shettima is very notorious in that region, and he is a dead weight that will cause APC to lose votes in the rest of the regions apart from NW and NE.

according to op if tinubu can manage to win Kano through ganduje love,katsina through buhari n kaduna through el rufai n lagos he will neutralize whatever obi won both in south south n south east cos atiku will have little influence there

If tinubu wins just 3 south west states combined he will cancel whatever atiku or obi have to offer outside their region

If tinubu should add kogi,kwara,plateau n few other states he will emerge winner

U should realise I didn’t talk much about atiku,I know u are an obi supporter so I believe u should know better

50% votes of only Kano can cancel that of 3 states in d south east

U can see I didn’t also talk about other core north

Hope u know shetima is from borno?

FreeStuffsNG:
You are shifting from your earlier false and ignorant claim about Sen. Shettima. Siince you now realise that Borno is locked down for Asiwaju , I can address others.

Yobe is APC and the current Gov. Mai Buni was the immediate past caretaker chairman of APC so Yobecis APC.

Taraba is Jolly Nyame who is back in the state to work for APC using his political structure so Taraba is not a walkover for PDP again.
Adamawa is HE Atiku's base but APC is strong there as 2 of the 3 current Senators are APC members and Presidential elections with federal parliamentary elections hold same day and time.

Stop assuming Nigerians are robots. That era where someone tells voters to vote for a particular candidate is gone. People are now getting wiser.

Realistic permutation and you dismiss the christian population in the North Central as not being substantial enough as most people think. How much do you know of the zone, I doubt you know much
Now let me break it down for you as someone who has stayed in many of the states there for considerable number of years.
Benue State is 99% Christian and about 90% of them are OBIdient for president though APC may likely win the gubernatorial election.
Plateau State is about 75% Christian and majority, say 90% are OBIdient.
Nasarawa State is about 50-55% Christian and majority are OBIdient, I know so many Muslims there too who are OBIdient.
Kogi, Kwara and Niger States have same demography with Muslims dominating Niger States and I know many in those states are OBIdient.
Abuja is locked down for him.

So Obi will win the North Central.

In the South West, Obi will get more than the 25% you gave him because his popularity is growing there. Tinubu will win of course but Obi will get very massive votes there. The margin of victory may not even be as huge as you think.

In the North East, Obi is taking Taraba State, will get substantial votes in Adamawa, Bauchi and Gombe. Not too sure about Yobe and Borno.

Where Obi isn't expected to perform well is in the North West but look out for surprises particularly in Kaduna, Kebbi.

BATified2023:
according to op if tinubu can manage to win Kano through ganduje love,katsina through buhari n kaduna through el rufai n lagos he will neutralize whatever obi won both in south south n south east cos atiku will have little influence there

If tinubu wins just 3 south west states combined he will cancel whatever atiku or obi have to offer outside their region

If tinubu should add kogi,kwara,plateau n few other states he will emerge winner

U should realise I didn’t talk much about atiku,I know u are an obi supporter so I believe u should know better

50% votes of only Kano can cancel that of 3 states in d south east

U can see I didn’t also talk about other core north

Hope u know shetima is from borno?

I won't like to burst your bubbles, I think its safe to allow you make your wild expectations, the reality will be interesting to see.

Kwankwoso will do very well in NW and NE minus Taraba. The kwankwosiya movement is strong there.

You underate Peter Obi in NC, he will come either first or second there.

Okpeke22:
Realistic permutation and you dismiss the christian population in the North Central as not being substantial enough as most people think. How much do you know of the zone, I doubt you know much
Now let me break it down for you as someone who has stayed in many of the states there for considerable number of years.
Benue State is 99% Christian and about 90% of them are OBIdient for president though APC may likely win the gubernatorial election.
Plateau State is about 75% Christian and majority, say 90% are OBIdient.
Nasarawa State is about 50-55% Christian and majority are OBIdient, I know so many Muslims there too who are OBIdient.
Kogi, Kwara and Niger States have same demography with Muslims dominating Niger States and I know many in those states are OBIdient.
Abuja is locked down for him.

So Obi will win the North Central.

In the South West, Obi will get more than the 25% you gave him because his popularity is growing there. Tinubu will win of course but Obi will get very massive votes there. The margin of victory may not even be as huge as you think.

In the North East, Obi is taking Taraba State, will get substantial votes in Adamawa, Bauchi and Gombe. Not too sure about Yobe and Borno.

Where Obi isn't expected to perform well is in the North West but look out for surprises particularly in Kaduna, Kebbi.

Please allow these people operate on their false premise, after 8 years of killing people in the middle belt, they will all walk up and vote for another 8 years of killings.

Okay o.

Ttalk:


Please explain this your statement. The sun is too hot to be cracking my brain on your post

I mean that apart from the North East where bh has used violence to cow the people to submission, senator shettima will be such a major disincentive that will make nobody vote for APC, except they are forced to do so.

Atiku truly has no opposition...

Those southerners will sit in their homes .. watching channels and arise to permutate away their hallucinations

February is here

After all noise ..

Atiku is the next President of Nigeria
Pdp is next government in power ..

Apc will come second

Atiku will give both Labour and Apc a million votes ahead and still comfortable win February

Anyhuman wey doubt should meet At areas 3 bank complex Abuja in Dec 1 and stake his bet with me .. with any of the bank managers and keep a receipt with Nairaland

I don’t talk much..

Power to the people
North 2023

No be by permutations.. but reality

Unfortunately, people are not. Nigerians are not wiser. Tribal, religious and party affiliations are still the bane of our country. In the core north, in the deep southwest, people still tell people who to vote for, and they comply. It is the harsh reality. That is why politicians like the status quo of illiteracy, hunger, tribal and religious gaslighting. This is the reality

successmatters:


Stop assuming Nigerians are robots. That era where someone tells voters to vote for a particular candidate is gone. People are now getting wiser.

BATified2023:
according to op if tinubu can manage to win Kano through ganduje love,katsina through buhari n kaduna through el rufai n lagos he will neutralize whatever obi won both in south south n south east cos atiku will have little influence there

If tinubu wins just 3 south west states combined he will cancel whatever atiku or obi have to offer outside their region

If tinubu should add kogi,kwara,plateau n few other states he will emerge winner

U should realise I didn’t talk much about atiku,I know u are an obi supporter so I believe u should know better

50% votes of only Kano can cancel that of 3 states in d south east

U can see I didn’t also talk about other core north

Hope u know shetima is from borno?

Lots of if if if and ifs

Tinubu a Yoruba man can't win Kano

You got the religious stats of Benue correctly. However, politically, Benue seem to have an almost Stockholm syndrome like mentality for APC and PDP, whether it is the mass iliteracy and extreme poverty in the state that is the cause, I don't know.
You also got the religious stat for Plateau correct, but it is not such a populated state, so in terms of raw numbers, that 75% might not be so much as to cancel the other shortfalls.
For Nasarawa, bro, you got it totally wrong. Nasarawa is at least 60% Muslim, don't let anyone deceive you. I think what people misconstrue as "huge Christian population" in some of these northern states is merely the fact that, these states have a recognizable portion of Christians compared to other contiguous states. Not that the Christians are so much that they form the majority. A case in point is Kaduna. Most people in the south erroneously think Kaduna is like 50-50 or 60-40 for Muslims a d Christians, but that is a fantasy, Kaduna is like 80-20 to the Muslims, no cap.
As for Kogi, Kwara, Niger, these states are low key almost more islamically fanatical than the Sokotos and Kanos.. I doubt Obi will see much from there

Okpeke22:
Realistic permutation and you dismiss the christian population in the North Central as not being substantial enough as most people think. How much do you know of the zone, I doubt you know much
Now let me break it down for you as someone who has stayed in many of the states there for considerable number of years.
Benue State is 99% Christian and about 90% of them are OBIdient for president though APC may likely win the gubernatorial election.
Plateau State is about 75% Christian and majority, say 90% are OBIdient.
Nasarawa State is about 50-55% Christian and majority are OBIdient, I know so many Muslims there too who are OBIdient.
Kogi, Kwara and Niger States have same demography with Muslims dominating Niger States and I know many in those states are OBIdient.
Abuja is locked down for him.

So Obi will win the North Central.

In the South West, Obi will get more than the 25% you gave him because his popularity is growing there. Tinubu will win of course but Obi will get very massive votes there. The margin of victory may not even be as huge as you think.

In the North East, Obi is taking Taraba State, will get substantial votes in Adamawa, Bauchi and Gombe. Not too sure about Yobe and Borno.

Where Obi isn't expected to perform well is in the North West but look out for surprises particularly in Kaduna, Kebbi.

kcnwaigbo:
Tinubu a Yoruba man can't win Kano

Was abiola hausa

Political analysis is different from reality,i call this pipe dream.
Look up north, you will agree with me that the northerners are aligning with Atiku,any southern candidate should not expect a bloc vote from the northeast and northwest.
Only North Central will likely give a southern candidate a bloc vote, which will be hard this time around.
Peter obi for president
Vote wisely.

Tinubu will not win Lagos ,Oyo and ondo with big margin...

rummmy:
Tinubu will not win Lagos ,Oyo and ondo with big margin...

Tinubu can't win Lagos with big margin

garfield1:


Was abiola hausa

Is 2023 same as 1993?

wonder233:
You got the religious stats of Benue correctly. However, politically, Benue seem to have an almost Stockholm syndrome like mentality for APC and PDP, whether it is the mass iliteracy and extreme poverty in the state that is the cause, I don't know.
You also got the religious stat for Plateau correct, but it is not such a populated state, so in terms of raw numbers, that 75% might not be so much as to cancel the other shortfalls.
For Nasarawa, bro, you got it totally wrong. Nasarawa is at least 60% Muslim, don't let anyone deceive you. I think what people misconstrue as "huge Christian population" in some of these northern states is merely the fact that, these states have a recognizable portion of Christians compared to other contiguous states. Not that the Christians are so much that they form the majority. A case in point is Kaduna. Most people in the south erroneously think Kaduna is like 50-50 or 60-40 for Muslims a d Christians, but that is a fantasy, Kaduna is like 80-20 to the Muslims, no cap.
As for Kogi, Kwara, Niger, these states are low key almost more islamically fanatical than the Sokotos and Kanos.. I doubt Obi will see much from there

So 20% control a Senatorial zone? Oga abeg fear God small

I think Tinubu will definitely get far more than you gave him in the south west. The south west has a political history of overwhelmingly voting for their own. Abiola in 93, Olu Falae in 99, Obasanjo in 2003. They all had over 70% of the vote cast in the region. I also think Atiku will get far more than what you gave him in the south east and south south because the pdp still has a very solid structure in those two regions. Your permutations of the NE,NW,NC look realistic.

wonder233:
This permutation takes into cognizance the major factors that shape our elections in Nigeria, i.e ethnicity, religion, party loyalty and voter objectivity.
It also focuses on the three main contenders who stand realistic chances of clinching the race.

Analysis:
In the southwest, a combination of tribal loyalty and party factor will give Tinubu a win. While Atiku and Obi will share the rest equally. Atiku's share will majorly come from party loyalty while Obi's own will be from both tribal (ibos and others in lagos) and objectivity (yorubas who don't share the tribal sentiment).

In the Southeast and southsouth, fierce tribal loyalty will give Obi a big win (especially in the east) while Atiku will nick Tinubu to second place on account of party loyalty votes.

In the northeast, Atiku will take top spot narrowly edging Tinubu on account of religion and region of origin. But Tinubu will put up a good showing on account of his much loved Vice and strong party structure. Obi will have very minimal votes here.
But in the northwest, Atiku and Tinubu will swap places. This is on account of APC having a better party following and an appealing muslim-muslim ticket. Atiku will also do well as tribal and religious sentiments also favour him. Obi's perfomance will be most dismal here.

In the North central, party loyalty reigns supreme in this region for some inexplainable reasons. Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger are staunch APC states. Even Benue that has had it rough in this present regime somehow still give APC sizeable votes. For the religious factors, the Christian population isn't as substantial as people think. The four aforementioned states will give Tinubu a win in the region, while Atiku will come a close second on account of party structure and religious sentiments. And Obi a substantial 3rd on account of the bit of Christian sentiments.


OVERALL SUMMARY


Verdict
The election is close to call, the actual number of voters that turn up will determine what these percentages will amount to in real numbers.
Tinubu seems to have a slight advantage as the areas he has good projections also historically post impressive turn outs. But whether they will be sufficiently motivated to for him is another thing altogether.
For Peter Obi, if Nigerians were more objective and less swayed by tribe, religion and party affiliations, he would have stood the best chances. But unfortunately, party loyalty is a big thing among a majority poor, uneducated population.
While for Atiku, he stands a realistic chance of upending Tinubu if he can manage to get tribe and religion to overtake party structure and loyalty in regions Tinubu looks set to take that he considers his backyard. And he has realized this and is going full throttle in that quest.
Inteesting times ahead.

Corrections
Tinubu Atiku Obi
50% 10% 40% SW
5% 10% 85% SE
5% 15% 80% SS
40% 50% 10% NE
50% 40% 10% NW
34% 33% 33% NC

31% 26% 43% TOTAL

Atiku can't see more than 10% in the southwest
Nobody will want to vote Atiku after 8 years of Buhari.

And don't underestimate obi support in the southwest. The results will be shocking!

Obi will get 80% in the south south.

The SouthSouth won't forget what Tinubu did to them 2015.

Atiku will do well in the NE!

Tinubu will do well in the NW!

The battleground is the NC. 51% of the time, the NC/MB moves with the south.

Chiefwhip01:
Political analysis is different from reality,i call this pipe dream.
Look up north, you will agree with me that the northerners are aligning with Atiku,any southern candidate should not expect a bloc vote from the northeast and northwest.
Only North Central will likely give a southern candidate a bloc vote, which will be hard this time around.
Peter obi for president
Vote wisely.

Exactly......na wetin I dey tell all these urchins......Tinubu can't win the core north, dey don't give southerners bloc votes.....No southerner has gotten 51% from the core north since 2003. Till now Tinubu hasn't released funds for campaign in the north. He knows they will chop his money. Na y baba they fear, they will collect his money....shout Tinubu....but in their meetings and cabals, its Atiku, some is even obi. Some Northerners are even saying they have not told them who to vote. Till now baba never start him campaign! He dey observe.....