₦airaland Forum

Lol, Atiku will win Borono/Kastina. Which kind permutations this people da do self.
Where they got it wrong completely is given Atiku more credit. Lets see its almost time. Una do pass like this for 2019 and 2015

CapitalCee:
Ok bro dont listen to all these online people most of them dont know what is on ground. PDP would have gotten 60-65%% of Delta state. But PDP is divided, Ibori camp of the PDP that is a very strong base is not supporting Atiku/Okowa, we dont know where their support will go to but it aint LP definitely. APC has gotten stronger in Delta state, and some of grassroot guys in the creeks are loyal to Tinubu. LP will not get 25% in Delta dont listen to all these online newbies in politics

Are you man enough to bet on this? Or you're just another urchin spewing garbage as usual?

So, according to you, Obi won't get 25% in Delta? You really must have sawdust mixed with palm oil for brain.

FYI, Obi is winning Delta with wide margins. It's Atiku that will struggle to get 25% here. Tinubu is not even in contention here!

Bitchiamjay:
Let’s bet 5 million naira each, if obi wins Delta, I’ll give you 5 million, if obi doesn’t win Delta, you’ll do same. No be Delta wey I Dey? If you get mind like your handle, put money.

See your life, you are betting on a faceless forum.
Fraudsters everywhere.

Massiveglory:
Alert!! Fake heading!
Tinubu urchn mod has changed the topic of this post.

The SBM permutations had nothing to do with tinubu winning.
They tilted towards an PODATTI win.
Tinubu was ranked to come 3rd.
It's shameful how the heading was quickly changed.


Talking about the Elections,
I can't really speak for other south west states as I don't know much about them. But you see Lagos, expect something huge.

Apart for 1999, with the then AD, bola tinubu has never won any election in Lagos free and fair.

With the coming of BVAS and the curtail of miscreants activities, expect some shock results in various places especially in the south west and north.

You went to school, but you didn't get good education.

Calm down and reread what was posted.

Smb intelligence that has no intelligence. Even robots use data science. What data did they use? Obi go flog Tinubu silly. 6 days to go

wink2015:
Kwakwanso and Atiku and Obi will also share part of the bulk northern votes.

So I do not think Tinubu will win convincingly.

Asiwaju will win convincingly.

The poll said Ethnicity and religion will determine most voters' decisions. Other factors are expected to be the state of the economy, party loyalty, financial inducement, other candidates contesting for other offices same day or gubernatorial,, love for the candidates.Other s are voters turn out, performance of INEC personnel.
It is not exclusively ethnicity and religion.

That said, it may mean Atiku winning majority in the NW & NE ( like AA = 50%, BAT = 30%, RMK =15%, PO =5%) . That's 12 states

That may mean Peter Obi winning SE (like PO = 70%, AA = 20% , BAT 8% ) That's 5 states

That may mean Tinubu winning majority in SW ( like BAT =70%, PO = 15%, AA = 12%, RMK = 3%)

The battle grounds are NC and SS Regions.

State by state analysis, NC
Niger state : APC = 40%, PDP = 35% , LP= 20%, RMK = 5%)
Kwara: APC = 60% PDP = 28% LP= 8%, NNPP = 4%)
Kogi : APC =53%, PDP = 32%, LP = 12%, NNPP = 3%)

*Benue: PDP = 30%, APC = 35%, LP= 33%, others 2%

*Taraba : PDP = 30%, APC = 36%, LP 28% others 6%

Nasarawa : APC = 38%, PDP= 34%, LP = 26% NNPP =2%

*Plateau : APC = 32%, PDP = 30% LP = 30% NNPP=8%

Asterisks: watch out for local politics, that will play huge roles in these states. APC may perform better in them as these are Conservative estimates especially Benue and Taraba.

SS
Delta: Okowa and Obi are popular so if we assume
PDP 40% , LP 30%, APC 30% ( a reflection of Delta North, Central & South ethnic voting pattern and loyalty)

Bayelsa: PDP = 40% APC = 30% , LP= 30%( impact of other candidates contesting for other positions, party loyalty and love for candidates )

Rivers : LP = 39% APC = 38% , PDP= 22%( financial inducement, party battles, party loyalty)

Akwa Ibom: PDP = 45%, LP = 30%, APC = 22%( watch out for senatorial contests, huge influence here)

Cross Rivers : PDP = 30%, APC = 35% , LP= 35%( party loyalty, other candidates and the people)

Edo: PDP= 33% LP= 36% APC = 30% others =1%

To states of Benue and Taraba may spring surprise which may tend toward APC and LP. I learnt the political class in Taraba favors BAT, they don't want another ethnic northerner. The Benue is a battle among the political class and of course money and the people.

caracas:
Are you sure you’re ok or you just been mischievous?
If any other party gets up to 10% in cross river that party tried. Obi will clear cross river state n there’s nothing the governor can do about it.
As for ogun obi might not win but he will get more than 30% of the votes there.

It's easier for Tinubu to win Anambra than for Obi to get 10% in Ogun or any other SW states. Mark this.

Aiel123:
Ok.
If Obi should get 30% in Ogun, how many then will Tinubu get? And Atiku?
I wasn't talking about Cross River.

All those dropping comments don't even know the meaning of those figures.

Where Obi wan see 30% in the Southwest outside of Lagos? Pesin wey no get party agents in several polling units. Dem go just dey rave and rant on social media.

So because you know a few families who are supporting Obi, it means he will secure as much as 200,000 votes in Ogun?

Aiel123:
Your projections sha.
Atiku will get more votes than Obi in the whole of SW apart from Lagos.

Based on what?

caracas:
Based on what?

He will. PDP is coming second in the Southwest outside of Lagos due to formidable party structures. In fact, APC will struggle to defeat them in some areas.

DeOTR:
It's easier for Tinubu to win Anambra than for Obi to get 10% in Ogun or any other SW states. Mark this.

Lol
We shall see , it is now you ppl will understand when we tell you that the igbos outside of the south east are more than the ones in the south east….

sangresan:
He will. PDP is coming second in the Southwest outside of Lagos due to formidable party structures. In fact, APC will struggle to defeat them in some areas.

you are very funny if you think those structures will have any effect in this elections.ethnicity, religion n enlightenment would be the major factors in this elections.
The igbos in the sw are very very numerous, yoruba Christians , yoruba youths etc would help Peter obi get huge votes in sw.
As for Atiku he will do very poorly in the entire south cos of the power shift sentiments.

caracas:
Based on what?

My own projections which can either turnout to be true or false.

sangresan:
All those dropping comments don't even know the meaning of those figures.

Where Obi wan see 30% in the Southwest outside of Lagos? Pesin wey no get party agents in several polling units. Dem go just dey rave and rant on social media.

So because you know a few families who are supporting Obi, it means he will secure as much as 200,000 votes in Ogun?

Everyone has his own opinion.
The election will tell.

Hoelujohn:
Ogun State

Wow

ENGINEERG:
If anyone tells you Peter obi can not win again, tell them he is now sure to win 14 states plus FCT from the 36 states. The states are:
Abia
Ebonyi
Enugu
Imo
Anambra
Edo
Rivers
Cross River
Delta
Akwa ibom
Bayelsa
Benue
Plateau
Taraba
Fct.

The core North that obi won't do well, will be majorly divided by 3 candidates( Tinubu, Atiku and kwanswaso) and obi Will get something too.
South West will still be divided too, whereas South east and South south won't be so divided,and obi will get landslide victory there.

so let no person tell you it's not possible again, its so POssible

Obi will not win Cross River and Delta state.

Atiku and Tinubu will divide SS votes. Go and snapshot this and keep it.

Proudlyomonna:
Oga you can't stay in your room and say LP will not win.
Dispute this reputable organizations that has been conducting polls which involves gathering data and information.
Anap has never made an mistake in the poll since 2011 but you want people to believe you are smarter than them right.
You have a case where a nobody Lp with zero structure winning same poll won by APC the ruling party yet you think this election is the normal type of Election we have been experiencing.
APC MUST GO FOR THEY ARE THE GREATEST DISASTER TO HIT THIS COUNTRY.
Obidiati is the way forward.

Read about the Bradley effect (someone mentioned it earlier in this thread) while we wait for 25th February. We'll come back to this when the results are in. Agreed?

Hoelujohn:
You dey Jones for thinking Obi won't get 25% in Ogun. I told my students to write the party their parents are supporting or voting for. Check the outcome

He might get 25% but from my observation, Tinubu will win.

CapitalCee:
Obi will get the highest votes cast ? As in the highest votes in this election? SMH

Very possible if ss se records high turnout

forgiveness:
He might get 25% but from my observation, Tinubu will win.

In ogun state, with the BVAS, obi has a great chance of going beyond just 25%. He has a chance of winning.

OchukoisBlack:
Read about the Bradley effect (someone mentioned it earlier in this thread) while we wait for 25th February. We'll come back to this when the results are in. Agreed?

Okay but for common sense sakes it's good enough to say according to reputable data gathering Obi is the top man for the job.
If Anap is predicting common LP to win polls that even APC won previously,this should make ya all see that something dynamic has occurred in our political space,I mean watin Lp get to dey win this polls where the big APC and PDP dey?
Apc's suffering, pain and unimaginable hardship pro max don change everything.
We wait for the election to end on God Nigeria will win against APC.
If you enter streets you go realize se this matter don turn to suffering and hustling Nigerians vs APC disaster and unimaginable hardship pro max. Bcus APC don turn abomination for the streets of Nija,some women almost beat one man on uniform wey been deh try defend tinubu for this money I pity those spreading Tribal hate, people like elsudani, Levels2, unclekoboko,morh247,yerimo na their sef them deh do.
The anger and hunger to end dis APC disaster and unimaginable hardship pro max is bigger than their tribal hatefilled antics.
APC MUST GO FOR THEY ARE THE GREATEST DISASTER TO HIT THIS COUNTRY.
Obidiati is the way forward.

Bitchiamjay:
Let’s bet 5 million naira each, if obi wins Delta, I’ll give you 5 million, if obi doesn’t win Delta, you’ll do same. No be Delta wey I Dey? If you get mind like your handle, put money.

does that tribal bigot mod look like someone that have 5milla in his account,dont waste ur time and energy on them urchins...

caracas:
Obi isn’t winning nassarawa n delta?pls go take care of your malaria before it gets worse….
Obi will win delta with nothing less that 85% votes
He will also win nassarawa , lagos n kaduna.He will get 25% in ogun , kogi n oyo states…..

Delta is Batified. It's not predominant igbo state.

Though Urhobo has the largest population Ika, Itshekiri, Ukwuani, Isoko, Ijaws, Igbo and Olukumi also have sizable population.

Looking at this, Obi can never get 85% in Delta because Urhobo, Ijaws, Olukumi, Itshekiri and some Ikas are behind Tinubu.

They are not happy because Okowa abandoned Warri and their area to focus on his own area.

MrEverest:
Are you man enough to bet on this? Or you're just another urchin spewing garbage as usual?

So, according to you, Obi won't get 25% in Delta? You really must have sawdust mixed with palm oil for brain.

FYI, Obi is winning Delta with wide margins. It's Atiku that will struggle to get 25% here. Tinubu is not even in contention here!

Guy Obi can't win Delta and that's fact... I don't even like the PDP but they'll have more votes in Delta state, it won't even be close. Obi is only popular within Delta Central and Delta North but Okowa is from Delta North, he won't lose his base. Even in Delta Central Obi is popular around the the towns and not the interiors.

What about Delta South? Obi can't infiltrate, PDP has the spread. If you want to argue about this first understand the demographics, no sentiments or emotions and most definitely not about what you see in the media. It will be PDP getting between 50-60%.

And why not engage civilly? Just because you disagree with someone doesn't mean you have to resort to insults or diatribes.

Massiveglory:
In ogun state, with the BVAS, obi has a great chance of going beyond just 25%. He has a chance of winning.

He will not win. Don't deceive yourself. With the suffering they are experiencing now due to their believe Buhari wants to sabotage Tinubu, they are voting for him.

forgiveness:
Delta is Batified. It's not predominant igbo state.

Though Urhobo has the largest population Ika, Itshekiri, Ukwuani, Isoko, Ijaws, Igbo and Olukumi also have sizable population.

Looking at this, Obi can never get 85% in Delta because Urhobo, Ijaws, Olukumi, Itshekiri and some Ikas are behind Tinubu.

They are not happy because Okowa abandoned Warri and their area to focus on his own area.

No bro, Tinubu can't win Delta, not in this life time, Lol.

Yes he has support from the Itsekiri's and the riverine so he might get sympathy votes. Delta Central which is predominantly Urhobo will support APC but for governorship and not Presidency so APC won't do well here.

PDP has Delta state. BAT, Atiku, Obi, Okowa will all win their states. Not sure of Kwakwanso and most definitely not Datti.

forgiveness:
He will not win. Don't deceive yourself. With the suffering they are experiencing now due to their believe Buhari wants to sabotage Tinubu, they are voting for him.

PODATTI will win. Don't get hbp. There is no ballot stuffing.
PODATTI has penetrated the people.

Realhommie:
Guy Obi can't win Delta and that's fact... I don't even like the PDP but they'll have more votes in Delta state, it won't even be close. Obi is only popular within Delta Central and Delta North but Okowa is from Delta North, he won't lose his base. Even in Delta Central Obi is popular around the the towns and not the interiors.

What about Delta South? Obi can't infiltrate, PDP has the spread. If you want to argue about this first understand the demographics, no sentiments or emotions and most definitely not about what you see in the media. It will be PDP getting between 50-60%.

And why not engage civilly? Just because you disagree with someone doesn't mean you have to resort to insults or diatribes.

The Urhobos, Itshekiris, Ijaws, Isokos and Olukumis will not vote for PDP because of Okowa who neglected them during his term.

They don't believe he represents their interests hence they are going for Tinubu this time around because some are his kinsmen. Obi will get votes among the Igbos, Ukwuanis, Ikas and othe ethics groups ofcourse but he is not winning.

forgiveness:
Delta is Batified. It's not predominant igbo state.

Though Urhobo has the largest population Ika, Itshekiri, Ukwuani, Isoko, Ijaws, Igbo and Olukumi also have sizable population.

Looking at this, Obi can never get 85% in Delta because Urhobo, Ijaws, Olukumi, Itshekiri and some Ikas are behind Tinubu.

They are not happy because Okowa abandoned Warri and their area to focus on his own area.

where is the Igbo population in this your map? you are making the voting patterns about tribes and you don't even have a good grasp of the tribes in the state.

Massiveglory:
PODATTI will win. Don't get hbp. There is no ballot stuffing.
PODATTI has penetrated the people.

My people!? E bi like say you dey dream.

Oga! E no go win shingbin. Perhaps none sw indigenes will give him more votes in Ogun state.

forgiveness:
My people!? E bi like say you dey dream.

Oga! E no go win shingbin. Perhaps none sw indigenes will give him more votes in Ogun state.

You are far from home.
Ogun state presidential election, PODATTI will take far beyond 25%. He will coast to victory.