₦airaland Forum

essentialone:
Transcorp Plc, just seriously fluctuating its price up and down. What's happening on it ooo?

Plenty offers have showed up. Perhaps another downward journey to start

Transcorp volume is an issue. It is always difficult for it to move.

BabsO2:
Plenty offers have showed up. Perhaps another downward journey to start

Eku Red Bull.

STOjo:
Transcorp volume is an issue. It is always difficult for it to move.

I don't think the bigger issue is the volume available for trading. But to uncertainty - if the current growth in earnings will persist. And the issue of poor dividend payout persisting, perhaps for the next decade.

Streetinvestor2:
Eku Red Bull.

Grass is green over here

RabbiDoracle:
This is the MOVE index which tracks volatility in the bond market.

This index needs to spike aggressively from the current 131 to over 220.

This spike will only be explained by an imminent global bond crisis. It will be a severe bond meltdown.

Once it affects bonds, most times it affects stocks as well.

A US bank just failed today. Silicon Valley Bank. Employees were told to work from home with immediate effect(indirect sack). The failure is due to realised bond losses which led them to try to raise more funds to boost their capital. But they couldn't. Regulators have taken over the bank.

Currently US banks sit on $600B unrealised bond losses.

Which one is next?

If this can't be contained, it will be global o.

Be safe.

RabbiDoracle:
Currently US banks sit on $600B unrealised bond losses.

Which one is next?

If this can't be contained, it will be global o.

Be safe.

The bank was over leveraged with junk bonds.

RabbiDoracle:
A US bank just failed today. Silicon Valley Bank. Employees were told to work from home with immediate effect(indirect sack). The failure is due to realised bond losses which led them to try to raise more funds to boost their capital. But they couldn't. Regulators have taken over the bank.

Currently US banks sit on $600B unrealised bond losses.

Which one is next?

If this can't be contained, it will be global o.

Be safe.

I detest online arguments but the failure was actually due to a bank run by their customers not the loss made on the bond sale.
It had to sell the bonds and investments for a loss in order to service withdrawals.

Another bank, Silvergate bank is in the process of being liquidated and shutdown.

Coolcash1:
The bank was over leveraged with junk bonds.

Nothing like that

essentialone:
Transcorp Plc, just seriously fluctuating its price up and down. What's happening on it ooo?

This is the reason: Result was given to people to upload, they kept it to themselves to finish buying first, together with their friends and concubines. They did this because the result was great. Then they suddenly realised that a great result with poor dividend attracts the stick on NGX as Sugar is seeing. They decided to heavily reduce what they initially bought before publishing it. They started selling down.
Then suddenly Tony was visited by BAT, angry Obidients joined the selling bazaar. As the price dropped so much, they again decided to wait to see if it will get back below N1.10 so they can put head before releasing the result. The huge fluctuations is caused by information asymmetry...

NB. This is my conspiracy theory...

comatekeke:
I detest online arguments but the failure was actually due to a bank run by their customers not the loss made on the bond sale.
It had to sell the bonds and investments for a loss in order to service withdrawals.

Another bank, Silvergate bank is in the process of being liquidated and shutdown.

Kindly explain what you mean by a bank run by their customers

Please, list stocks can likely give 100% gain, if entered now

OBAGADAFFI:
Kindly explain what you mean by a bank run by their customers

Bank run is a situation when all(most) customers are trying to withdraw their money at the same time because their money wan enter otiló

Ades1:
Bank run is a situation when all(most) customers are trying to withdraw their money at the same time because their money wan enter otiló

Bank run is usually the last stage that people see. Before a bank run, the foundation of the bank have started to decay. Losses first, efforts to capitalise and failure to do so and ultimately, bank run.

The poster who said the bank failure was as a result of bank run is not dealing with the root cause of the issue. Bankrun is just the physical event you see.

And many US banks are on severe bond losses as we speak and if nothing is done about it by the Fed, more banks will go down. And the contagion will spread.

essentialone:
Please, list stocks can likely given 100% gain, if entered now

Do nothing for now. There was financial crash as at Friday in the Western markets. Just be on the look out to know if tomorrow will be Black Monday.

03/13/23 (mm/dd/yy)

There are videos online about people queuing up to withdraw from First Republic Bank in California. $FRC.

Fed and US govt needs to make statement today before Asian markets open and before EU open. Otherwise the problem will be global and unstoppable. The unrealised losses these western banks are holding is enormous.

RabbiDoracle:
There are videos online about people queuing up to withdraw from First Republic Bank in California. $FRC.

Fed and US govt needs to make statement today before Asian markets open and before EU open. Otherwise the problem will be global and unstoppable. The unrealised losses these western banks are holding is enormous.

Why does it feel like someone is trying harder to fit d meaning behind negative events to their beliefs?

Below is a post on New York times, it is a long read. I posted summaries generated from ChatGtp in the next post if you don't feel reading d long passage.

Silicon Valley Bank Fails After Run on Deposits
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation took control of the bank’s assets on Friday. The failure raised concerns that other banks could face problems, too.

March 10, 2023
One of the most prominent lenders in the world of technology start-ups, struggling under the weight of ill-fated decisions and panicked customers, collapsed on Friday, forcing the federal government to step in.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said on Friday that it would take over Silicon Valley Bank, a 40-year-old institution based in Santa Clara, Calif. The bank’s failure is the second-largest in U.S. history, and the largest since the financial crisis of 2008.

The move put nearly $175 billion in customer deposits under the regulator’s control. While the swift downfall of the nation’s 16th largest bank evoked memories of the global financial panic of a decade and a half ago, it did not immediately touch off fears of widespread destruction in the financial industry or the global economy.

Silicon Valley Bank’s failure came two days after its emergency moves to handle withdrawal requests and a precipitous decline in the value of its investment holdings shocked Wall Street and depositors, sending its stock careening. The bank, which had $209 billion in assets at the end of 2022, had been working with financial advisers until Friday morning to find a buyer, a person with knowledge of the negotiations said.
While the woes facing Silicon Valley Bank are unique to it, a financial contagion appeared to spread through parts of the banking sector, prompting Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to publicly reassure investors that the banking system was resilient.

Investors dumped stocks of peers of Silicon Valley Bank, including First Republic, Signature Bank and Western Alliance, many of which cater to start-up clients and have similar investment portfolios.

Trading in shares of at least five banks was halted repeatedly throughout the day as their steep declines triggered stock exchange volatility limits.

By comparison, some of the nation’s largest banks appeared more insulated from the fallout. After a slump on Thursday, shares of JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup all were generally flat on Friday.

That’s because the biggest banks operate in a vastly different world. Their capital requirements are more stringent and they also have far broader deposit bases than banks like Silicon Valley, which do not attract masses of retail customers. Regulators have also tried to keep the big banks from focusing too heavily in a single area of business, and they have largely stayed away from riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.

“I don’t think that this is an issue for the big banks — that’s the good news, they’re diversified,” said Sheila Bair, former chair of the F.D.I.C. Ms. Bair added that since the largest banks were required to hold cash equivalents even against the safest forms of government debt, they should be expected to have plenty of liquidity.

On Friday, Ms. Yellen discussed the issues surrounding Silicon Valley Bank with banking regulators, according to a statement from the Treasury Department.

Representatives from the Federal Reserve and the F.D.I.C. also held a bipartisan briefing for members of Congress organized by Maxine Waters, a Democrat from California and the ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Silicon Valley Bank’s downward spiral accelerated with incredible speed this week, but its troubles have been brewing for more than a year. Founded in 1983, the bank had long been a go-to lender for start-ups and their executives.

Though the bank advertised itself as a “partner for the innovation economy,” some decidedly old-fashioned decisions led to this moment.

Flush with cash from high-flying start-ups that had raised a lot of money from venture capitalists, Silicon Valley Bank did what all banks do: It kept a fraction of the deposits on hand and invested the rest with the hope of earning a return. In particular, the bank put a large share of customer deposits into long-dated Treasury bonds and mortgage bonds which promised modest, steady returns when interest rates were low.

That had worked well for years. The bank’s deposits doubled to $102 billion at the end of 2020 from $49 billion in 2018. One year later, in 2021, it had $189.2 billion in its coffers as start-ups and technology companies enjoyed heady profits during the pandemic.

But it bought huge amounts of bonds just before the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates a little more than a year ago, then failed to make provisions for the possibility that interest rates would rise very quickly. As rates rose, those holdings became less attractive because newer government bonds paid more in interest.

That might not have mattered so long as the bank’s clients didn’t ask for their money back. But because the gusher of start-up funding slowed at the same time as interest rates were rising, the bank’s clients began to withdraw more of their money.

To pay those redemption requests, Silicon Valley Bank sold off some of its investments. In its surprise disclosure on Wednesday, the bank admitted that it had lost nearly $2 billion when it was all but forced sell some of its holdings.

“It’s the classic Jimmy Stewart problem,” said Ms. Bair, referring to the actor who played a banker trying to stave off a bank run in the film “It’s a Wonderful Life.” “If everybody starts withdrawing money all at once, the bank has to start selling some of its assets to give money back to depositors.”

Those fears set off investor worries about some of the regional banks. Like Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank is also a lender that caters to the start-up community. It’s perhaps best known for its connections to former President Donald J. Trump and his family.

First Republic Bank, a San Francisco-based lender focused on wealth management and private banking services for high net worth clients in the tech industry, warned recently that its ability to earn profits is being hampered by rising interest rates. Its Phoenix-based peer in the wealth management industry, Western Alliance Bank, is facing similar pressures.

Separately, another bank, Silvergate, said on Wednesday that it was shutting down its operations and liquidating after suffering heavy losses from its exposure to the cryptocurrency industry.

A First Republic spokesman responded to a request for comment by sharing a filing the bank made to the Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday stating that its deposit base was “strong and very-well diversified” and that its “liquidity position remains very strong.”

A Western Alliance spokeswoman pointed to a news release by the bank on Friday describing the condition of its balance sheet. “Deposits remain strong,” the statement said. “Asset quality remains excellent.”

Representatives of Signature and Silicon Valley Bank had no comment. Representatives for the Federal Reserve and F.D.I.C. declined to comment.

Some banking experts on Friday pointed out that a bank as large as Silicon Valley Bank might have managed its interest rate risks better had parts of the Dodd-Frank financial-regulatory package, put in place after the 2008 crisis, not been rolled back under President Trump.

In 2018, Mr. Trump signed a bill that lessened regulatory scrutiny for many regional banks. Silicon Valley Bank’s chief executive, Greg Becker, was a strong supporter of the change, which reduced how frequently banks with assets between $100 billion and $250 billion had to submit to stress tests by the Fed.

Mr. Becker, who had been on the San Francisco Fed’s board of directors, was no longer on the board as of Friday, a Fed spokesperson said.

At the end of 2016, Silicon Valley Bank’s asset size was $45 billion. It had jumped to more than $115 billion by the end of 2020.

Friday’s upheaval raised uncomfortable parallels to the 2008 financial crisis. Although it’s not uncommon for small banks to fail, the last time a bank of this magnitude unraveled was in 2008, when the F.D.I.C. took over Washington Mutual.

The F.D.I.C. rarely takes over banks when the markets are open, preferring to put a failing institution into receivership on a Friday after business has closed for the weekend. But the banking regulator put out a news release in the first few hours of trading on Friday, saying that it created a new bank, the National Bank of Santa Clara, to hold the deposits and other assets of the failed one.

The regulator said that the new entity would be operating by Monday and that checks issued by the old bank would continue to clear. While customers with deposits of up to $250,000 — the maximum covered by F.D.I.C. insurance — will be made whole, there’s no guarantee that depositors with larger amounts in their accounts will get all of their money back.

Those customers will be given certificates for their uninsured funds, meaning they would be among the first in line to be paid back with funds recovered while the F.D.I.C. holds Silicon Valley Bank in receivership — although they might not get all of their money back.

When the California bank IndyMac failed in July 2008, it, like Silicon Valley Bank, did not have an immediate buyer. The F.D.I.C. held IndyMac in receivership until March 2009, and large depositors eventually only received 50 percent of their uninsured funds back. When Washington Mutual was bought by JPMorgan Chase, account holders were made whole.

Here a summary of d relevant sections.

Silicon Valley Bank, a 40-year-old institution based in Santa Clara, California, and one of the most prominent lenders in the world of technology start-ups, collapsed on Friday, forcing the federal government to step in. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) said on Friday that it would take over the bank’s assets, putting nearly $175 billion in customer deposits under the regulator's control. The move followed Silicon Valley Bank's emergency moves to handle withdrawal requests and a precipitous decline in the value of its investment holdings. The bank had $209 billion in assets at the end of 2022 and had been working with financial advisers until Friday morning to find a buyer. Although its downfall was swift, the woes facing the bank are unique to it, and its failure did not immediately touch off fears of widespread destruction in the financial industry or the global economy.


The article explains that Silicon Valley Bank had invested a large share of its customer deposits into long-dated Treasury bonds and mortgage bonds that promised modest, steady returns when interest rates were low. This investment strategy had worked well for years, and the bank's deposits had doubled from $49 billion in 2018 to $102 billion by the end of 2020. However, when the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates a little more than a year ago, the bank failed to make provisions for the possibility that interest rates would rise very quickly. As rates
rose, those holdings became less attractive because newer government bonds paid more in interest. When the bank's clients began to withdraw more of their money, Silicon Valley Bank sold off some of its investments, and it lost nearly $2 billion when it was all but forced to sell some of its holdings.

essentialone:
Please, list stocks can likely given 100% gain, if entered now

Pls make ogas help out.I am equally interested because it will be a miracle. For me I am not interested in all those kobo kobo stock you can manipulate with 5 m and above.

RabbiDoracle:
There are videos online about people queuing up to withdraw from First Republic Bank in California. $FRC.

Fed and US govt needs to make statement today before Asian markets open and before EU open. Otherwise the problem will be global and unstoppable. The unrealised losses these western banks are holding is enormous.

Just now:

YELLEN: SVB collapse is clearly a concern

YELLEN: Been working all weekend with banking regulators to design appropriate policy

YELLEN, COMMENTING ON SVB COLLAPSE: America's economy relies on Safe and Sound Banking System

YELLEN, Asked if a deal can be expected before Asia Market open, Says working to address situation in timely way


YELLEN: Depositors don't have to worry about losing access to their money.

YELLEN: Certain FDIC considering a wide range of options for SVB, including acquisitions

YELLEN: Certainly not looking at repeating bailouts of the past

Meanwhile :

Egypt index - 3.14%
Israel index - 2.90%
Saudi index - 0.76%

As for NGX, watch how Asia opens because there seems to be a little chaos in the Middle East markets.

[quote author=RabbiDorac


If banks could be failing in the U.S. what are we to expect here that nothing works?? Arufred d catch me ooo!

[quote author=ositadima1 post=121673528]Why does it feel like someone is trying harder to fit d meaning behind negative events to their beliefs?

Bro, why do you always attack Oracle?
Why not pass your message without trying to discredit him?

He predicted what is happening now more than a year ago. He told us the tools he used to project into the future, no prophesy or guess work.

And in trying to disprove him you are sharing an article from New York Times.

It is only an Amateur that will depend on New York Times, Financial Times Bloomberg to know what is going on in a market.

People like oga Emma has his tools he can use to read the market before things happen.

The media houses only report when it has happened.

Dum20:
Bro, why do you always attack Oracle?
Why not pass your message without trying to discredit him?

He predicted what is happening now more than a year ago. He told us the tools he used to project into the future, no prophesy or guess work.

And in trying to disprove him you are sharing an article from New York Times.

It is only an Amateur that will depend on New York Times, Financial Times Bloomberg to know what is going on in a market.

People like oga Emma has his tools he can use to read the market before things happen.

The media houses only report when it has happened.

"Some people don't like you just because your strength reminds them of their weakness. Don't let the hate slow you down."

RabbiDoracle:
"Some people don't like you just because your strength reminds them of their weakness. Don't let the hate slow you down."

So the world is heading for a market crash.Ok oh,we are watching. ALL I know is nse is going to tank by nothing less than 50%.The signs are everywhere and it will be because of failure on the part of our government. ALL I pray hunger doesn't push people to the street because it may turn bloody

Dum20:
**

I shared the article because I believe in people doing their thinking for themselves. I guess you prefer to be spoonfed with unsubstantiated beliefs.

If you read the article you would have understood why the bank collapsed and not because the western world is imploding, but then you find conspiracy theories more appealing, ok.

Here again some recap in my own words:

1. Bank was over-exposed on cheap bonds when they should have been more deversified.

2. Because of d post COVID wahala USA increased interest rates to stabilize their economy.

3. Suddenly the bank's investments became less valuable or bad because newer bonds offer better yields.

4. The client and investors got to know about it and started withdrawing en mass.

5. Bank can't cope with multiple withdrawal and had to sell their now bad investments that resulted into big losses.

Well, dis isn't good news at all

RabbiDoracle:
"Some people don't like you just because your strength reminds them of their weakness. Don't let the hate slow you down."

Or maybe you think too highly of yourself.

I hardly comment on here, but I just need to put this out.

Please, na beg I take beg una. Don't come here to disparage analysis by the few people we still have, trying to help people like us project what's happening/what's about to happen in the market.

Na beg I beg ooooo. That's how some people were all over the place antagonizing some very helpful people on the Treasury Bills thread, and now the place has become a shadow of itself with no useful advice coming out from there again.

I come in peace

ositadima1:
Or maybe you think too highly of yourself.

why quote him when he didn't quote you when he made his post.Why do you feel his post was targeted at you. You should have waited when he attacks you directly then you have every reason to bust his head that is how I reason issues. Anybody has right to make his/her post but when you quote a person then it becomes personal. To me now na you dey find trouble, lol

No vex sha.who even made me judge in this matter

Some of us are good at destroying rather than building. I have benefitted so much from people here and also in treasury bills thread.

Let's learn to be tolerant. Some people give vital informations here that even with your money, you cannot buy it.

If you end up because of your empty ego send such people away, what happens to thousands of people that benefit from their informations?

Please if you are too big to be in a social environment or public domain, kindly mind your company or business and keep to yourself.

No go use Ogogoro trowey Hennessey for us.

Breaking: Federal regulators said all depositors of Silicon Valley Bank will get their money and said a second bank, Signature Bank, was closed

that’s a bailout

ositadima1:
I shared the article because I believe in people doing their thinking for themselves. I guess you prefer to be spoonfed with unsubstantiated beliefs.

If you read the article you would have understood why the bank collapsed and not because the western world is imploding, but then you find conspiracy theories more appealing, ok.

Here again some recap in my own words:

1. Bank was over-exposed on cheap bonds when they should have been more deversified.

2. Because of d post COVID wahala USA increased interest rates to stabilize their economy.

3. Suddenly the bank's investments became less valuable or bad because newer bonds offer better yields.

4. The client and investors got to know about it and started withdrawing en mass.

5. Bank can't cope with multiple withdrawal and had to sell their now bad investments that resulted into big losses.

Coming from someone that has been quoting CHATGPT up and down.

Well Done Sir.