Wahala no dey finish oh...
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/credit-suisse-shares-drop-fresh-093204097.html

OBAGADAFFI:


The impact will not be much on STANBIC due to the shareholding structure.

Am sorry I made a mistake.
That part in bold should be ECOBANK and ACCESS (not STANBIC)
Will effect the necessary correction to that post.

While I wouldn't align with STANBIC at the CMP, I think that impact from impairment on the bank will likely come from our domestic sovereign debt end and not that from Ghana.

Regards

Cadillac15:
The negative factors staring at the banks at this time is too many.
Most of them own the junk bonds from Ghana.
Their Q4'22 and Q1'23 is going to be messed up due to emefiele's cashless policy.
Also, Nigeria's recent junk status rating is going to trickle down to them as they also own FG bonds and the outcome of the election is just waiting by the side.
I see ZB and GTCO doing N15 again soon with ZB even worse due to the ongoing board management fight and its holdco reconfiguration.

I like to agree with you.
However, it's important to also state that the impact on banks would vary, depending on their level of exposures so we don't appear to blow matters out of proportion.
Are there concerns? Absolutely!
But the question is; to what extent?

There's need to check what peg of provisions (for impairment) they've made in the course of that financial yr. (2022)
Is there a chance that some of these banks anticipated things and had a risk magt framework in place to cushion the degree of possible impact?
Recall that the Ghana bond issue followed a pattern, so magt should have been deliberate in their actions.

The figures from their financial print shows that FBNH, GTB and UBA have the least No of exposure while FIDELITY, ZENITH, ECOBANK and ACCESS have higher exposures from LtR in that order.
This is why I worry for ACCESS. Their growth model puts them at higher risk given the concerns on AsY and AsQ (CoR in view), and why I prefer UBA ahead of ACCESS now.

No doubt, Ghana's Sovereign debt will affect the capitalization of these banks and quite possibly, create higher loan impairment in the near term (like you, my projection are for Q4, 2022, Q1, 2023 but also H1, 2023), but I still maintain that impact will likely not be significant.
For one thing, these big lenders have their OPM/operating profit structured with strong pre-impairment (provisions in view), which creates the needed shock absorber to take in this sought of loses without a material impact to their capital structure.
This is even more so when you consider the relatively small sizes of their Ghana subsidiaries.

I am more worried about our domestic sovereign debt exposure in view of recent happenings than that of Ghana... which is why I like to think that our assessment should be on their current peg of CoF/CoR and how it's impacted AsY/AsQ prior to this time. (Q1--Q3, 2022)

As I said before; DBMs with a healthy/balanced-- favourably sector assigned loan book but also an investment driven portfolio, will continue to do well.
Otherwise...

I think that UBA and GTB with a lower level of exposure will maintain if not better their growth trajectory. (ref: YoY)
With FBN, well maybe, but am still not comfortable with certain Nos in their financial print.
I prefer UBA, STERLING and GTB at this time... though I must admit it would've been better to align with the last name @ N17.
With the requisite trade set-up, I will align with the 1st 2 names at this time, but that's just me.

Again, careful selective play should be the way to go! (for now)
Regards

RabbiDoracle:


"This too shall pass", that is always my belief.

If one has cash, just hold. If one has stocks that pay dividends, it still gives cashflow which can be used to buy stocks lower. If one has cash and stocks, perfect!

Nothing to fear. It will only be a paper loss. One will only regret if he doesn't have cash to pick some lows to add to existing positions.

Nothing to regret about if one doesn't have money, I love banking sector it has a cycle it follows year and that they have been following yearly unless global events happens they must follow that cycle. Zenith will always go back to 19 after dividend, UBA 6+, GTB 20+ am not a long time investor since my last experience of 2008 global crash but if am caught up like is currently happening , I will wait to collect my dividends before it bounces back. I will still make same money in the long run I don't wait for dividend if I buy zenith at 19 and it got to 26 what am I waiting for? Those that buy lower and those that doesn't have money to buy low both will still make money in the long run. One should just know what he or she is doing.

onegentleguy:


Sorry I made a mistake.
That part in bold should be ECOBANK and ACCESS (not STANBIC)

While I wouldn't align with STANBIC at the CMP, I think that impact (from impairment) on the bank will likely be from our domestic sovereign debt end and not that of Ghana.

Will effect a correction to that post.
Regards

Thanks.

Is it true that Zenit Might be having liquidity problems?

Zagee:
Wahala no dey finish oh...
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/credit-suisse-shares-drop-fresh-093204097.html

Wait till Wells Fargo own start. Then Nomura in Japan nko?

Then wait for the second order effects from these banking issues.

It is a whack-a-mole game.

QE must be restarted and then printing will be unlimited. And this action too has its consequences. It is a vicious cycle.

OBAGADAFFI:


Thanks.

Is it true that Zenit Might be having liquidity problems?

Honestly, I really don't know anything about that.

Regards

Lion123:


This is funny. Nothing dey happen to Nigerian banks. The big boys just trying to drive down the price to get the softies out of the market. Nigerian banks dey gidigba. Everytime a little bit of selling-off happens that drives the price south people always come up with all these stories of how Nigerian banks are about to suffer.

No problems. Enjoy your investment

I lovw those of you who invest with your emotions because without you, people like me won't make money.

I just looked at the closing pricelist now and I am shocked. I sold my zenith for 26.65-27 just two weeks ago and now its 23.85.

If I buy again tomorrow and they pay dividend of 2.2 I will automatically be holding at 21.70 whereas you are here shouting cycle cycle

Be riding bicycle there

Cadillac15:
I lovw those of you who invest with your emotions because without you, people like me won't make money.

I just looked at the closing pricelist now and I am shocked. I sold my zenith for 26.65-27 just two weeks ago and now its 23.85.

If I buy again tomorrow and they pay dividend of 2.2 I will automatically be holding at 21.70 whereas you are here shouting cycle cycle

Be riding bicycle there

U are the main wealth builder!

F

Nigeria Breweries bonus shares received...

essentialone:
Nigeria Breweries bonus shares received...

yay🤸🤸🤸🤸

essentialone:
Nigeria Breweries bonus shares received...

how can I check for this please?

Ginalex:
how can I check for this please?

I heard news that SEC has registered the bonus shares. I checked my portfolio, of course it was not there. I know it will never be there because most stock brokers are push and start. You literally have to remind them before they can get anything done. So I mailed them today to immediately add the bonus shares to my trading portal. Few minutes later, I checked again, and Voila! It's there chilling and smiling back at me, wondering what I will do to it. Lol


Please ooo, where are our stock experts? NB is it good for Hold it, Buy more, or Sell off?

essentialone:


I heard news that SEC has registered the bonus shares. I checked my portfolio, of course it was not there. I know it will never be there because most stock brokers are push and start. You literally have to remind them before they can get anything done. So I mailed them today to immediately add the bonus shares to my trading portal. Few minutes later, I checked again, and Voila! It's there chilling and smiling back at me, wondering what I will do to it. Lol


Please ooo, where are our stock experts? NB is it good for Hold it, Buy more, or Sell off?

when was the qualification date for this?

Also, you can hold it until after tomorrow and sell, so that you will also get the dividend.

essentialone:


I heard news that SEC has registered the bonus shares. I checked my portfolio, of course it was not there. I know it will never be there because most stock brokers are push and start. You literally have to remind them before they can get anything done. So I mailed them today to immediately add the bonus shares to my trading portal. Few minutes later, I checked again, and Voila! It's there chilling and smiling back at me, wondering what I will do to it. Lol


Please ooo, where are our stock experts? NB is it good for Hold it, Buy more, or Sell off?

I don mail my broker this night

Cadillac15:
I lovw those of you who invest with your emotions because without you, people like me won't make money.

I just looked at the closing pricelist now and I am shocked. I sold my zenith for 26.65-27 just two weeks ago and now its 23.85.

If I buy again tomorrow and they pay dividend of 2.2 I will automatically be holding at 21.70 whereas you are here shouting cycle cycle

Be riding bicycle there

Is Zenith bank dividend 2.2?

Year 2008 crisis showing year 2023 around...

DeRuggedProf:
Year 2008 crisis showing year 2023 around...

Of the 25 banks that collapsed in 2008, they had combined assets of around $370B

Now, just 2 banks that collapsed had around $310B of combined assets.

And Credit Suisse matter is not yet clear plus all the EU interconnectedness with other banks since CS is a global SIB.

RabbiDoracle:




Of the 25 banks that collapsed in 2008, they had combined assets of around $370B

Now, just 2 banks that collapsed had around $310B of combined assets.

And Credit Suisse matter is not yet clear plus all the EU interconnectedness with other banks since CS is a global SIB.

2008 was brutal on our NSE simply cos they bided everything high both good and dead stocks, brokers were getting margin loan from banks, every dick and harry was entry stocks on the fake analysis paralysis of stock brokers until FPIs allow the madness get to the peak then they dumped on us. Many lost their lives and the rest learnt hard lesson of a life time, i dont think it can be worst on us like that of 2008 since we are not currently have majority of FPIs guys on our NSE though that is my view. Any how we dey here one just need to invest in sound and good companies.

DeRuggedProf:
Year 2008 crisis showing year 2023 around...

Lol!!!
@DeRuggedProf may God blind-fold Year 2023 not to see or comprehend what year 2008 is showing him. Very hilarious!!!

YoungBuffet:


2008 was brutal on our NSE simply cos they bided everything high both good and dead stocks, brokers were getting margin loan from banks, every dick and harry was entry stocks on the fake analysis paralysis of stock brokers until FPIs allow the madness get to the peak then they dumped on us. Many lost their lives and the rest learnt hard lesson of a life time, i dont think it can be worst on us like that of 2008 since we are not currently have majority of FPIs guys on our NSE though that is my view. Any how we dey here one just need to invest in sound and good companies.

If you have been following my post for a while , you will see that all I write is about the global crisis that will originate from the western world. I hardly mentioned NGX. I only said that if it affects NGX, it could be from tremors called contagion and such tremors I fear.

I'm only focused on the development of this global economic crisis which will impact the western world far more and the fallouts that could result. And we are watching the events unfold live. From US, now we are in EU.

DeRuggedProf:
Year 2008 crisis showing year 2023 around...

Rookie looks

I have come across several posts lamenting about the imminent collapse of the market, particularly the banking sector, due to the ongoing Ghana bond crisis. It's been baffling to see this sudden concern, given that the issue has persisted for several months.

It appears that the market is currently at a standstill due to the multitude of uncertainties, including perceived political instability and failed monetary policies.

Analyzing the past few years, it's evident that March has consistently ended on a negative note for Zenith and other banks, as shown in the attached chart. Notably, Zenith's closing figures for the past two years has been around 22.4.

Note that the numbers on top the bars signifies the month closing price.

Ucap appears to be a favorable purchase option as its 20-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below 30, and the On Balance Volume (OBV) indicator does not provide significant support for its 24% decline. However, I will continue to monitor the situation closely.

YoungBuffet:
2008 was brutal on our NSE simply cos they bided everything high both good and dead stocks, brokers were getting margin loan from banks, every dick and harry was entry stocks on the fake analysis paralysis of stock brokers until FPIs allow the madness get to the peak then they dumped on us. Many lost their lives and the rest learnt hard lesson of a life time, i dont think it can be worst on us like that of 2008 since we are not currently have majority of FPIs guys on our NSE though that is my view.

Funny how Prof compares 2023 to 2008!
Wonder what brought the side by side comparison in the first place........and if he's referring to The States, he ought to be specific.

In 2008 before the crash, did someone know how much each stock share price was selling and how much they are now ?

Even JAPAUL that was selling at Kobo Kobo now was selling above N13, all the insurance stocks grounded at 20kobo now are selling at high amount that time......banking stocks, industrial, consumer goods, oil & gas, etc are all on high side.

Isn't it wicked to compare 2023 to 2008? Except they're saying all stocks should be rounded down to miminum value of 0.20k..God forbid.
Make Una no vex o.

Ginalex:
how can I check for this please?

You can request for a copy of your CSCS statement from your stock broker and compare it with the stocks/quantities in your portfolio.
*Sometimes, there may even be some bonuses that one doesn't know were there.

You may also subscribe to annual CSCS online (Individual) to be able to access your CSCS statement and check the bonuses/stocks by yourself.

yMcy56:

You can request for a copy of your CSCS statement from your stock broker and compare it with the stocks/quantities in your portfolio.
*Sometimes, there may even be some bonuses that one doesn't know were there.

You may also subscribe to CSCS online (Individual) to be able to access your CSCS statement and check the bonuses/stocks by yourself.

you don't know what you've done for me. Thank you so much. One more request please. Do you have the link I can use to register/subscribe?

Ginalex:
you don't know what you've done for me. Thank you so much. One more request please. Do you have the link I can use to register/subscribe?

Here:
https://portal.cscs.ng/home/register

Individual subscription costs N3,010 (was formerly around N2,600 or so)

* You can also check instructions here:
https://www.cscs.ng/online-subscription/

yMcy56:

Here:
https://portal.cscs.ng/home/register

Individual subscription costs N3,010 (was formerly around N2,600 or so)

* You can also check instructions here:
https://www.cscs.ng/online-subscription/

thank you so much

ositadima1:
I have come across several posts lamenting about the imminent collapse of the market, particularly the banking sector, due to the ongoing Ghana bond crisis. It's been baffling to see this sudden concern, given that the issue has persisted for several months.

It appears that the market is currently at a standstill due to the multitude of uncertainties, including perceived political instability and failed monetary policies.

Analyzing the past few years, it's evident that March has consistently ended on a negative note for Zenith and other banks, as shown in the attached chart. Notably, Zenith's closing figures for the past two years has been around 22.4.

...you're quite right about March not being favourable to the banking industry. However, looking at the Zenith bank price structure, the stock price recently touched the upper part of the bullish wedge and now price seems to be rejected. IF March outlook remains the same, technically, price is expected to decline more to at least, 20 - 22. Price touching lower part of the bullish wedge (18) is a possibility.

Overall structure is bullish on the monthly, but some dips is expected.