₦airaland Forum

BabsO2:
What other stocks do you see as under valued ?

Some stocks I checked and my estimated fair values:
Sterlnbank - #2.6
Fidelitybk - #6.5 **slightly overvalued
FCMB - #6.3
Zenithbank - #28.5 **slightly overvalued
Vitafoam - #36
Ucap - #16
Nahco - #16.5
Wapco - #33
Dangsugar- #45

With d exception of a few most of these stocks distributed less than half thier EPS as dividends, keeping yield low.

ositadima1:
Some stocks I checked and my estimated fair values:
Sterlnbank - #2.6
Fidelitybk - #6.5 **slightly overvalued
FCMB - #6.3
Zenithbank - #28.5 **slightly overvalued
Vitafoam - #36
Ucap - #16
Nahco - #16.5
Wapco - #33
Dangsugar- #45

With d exception of a few most of these stocks distributed less than half thier EPS as dividends, keeping yield low.

How about gtbank? Thanks

Justcul:
How about gtbank? Thanks

I think for GTCO 2022 audited results are not yet out, but using 2021 results fairvalue is #23.8.

ositadima1:
I think for GTCO 2022 audited results are not yet out, but using 2021 results fairvalue is #23.8.

Thanks bro

emmanuelewumi:
UBA is not on my radar. Can you assist me with the total dividend declared, dividend payout ratio, return on equity and book value of UBA.


That will assist me in giving a guestimate

Some data from 2022 audited results:

Number of shares: 34,199,421,366
Proposed dividend: 90 kobo per share
EPS: 4.84
PAT: #170,277,000,000
Equity: #922,104,000,000

Audited results: https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/37990_UNITED_BANK_FOR_AFRICA_PLC-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2022_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_MARCH_2023.pdf

emmanuelewumi:
Cash is real and not fake


Increasing dividends show confidence about the future by management.

Some of us doubt the earnings of some of the companies, we only believe the dividends.


But investors should investigate the source of the dividend payments.


Dividend should not be more than the free cash flow, in that case the dividend safety and sustainability is a suspect.

The free cash flow of one of the cement makers is N45 billion but total dividend is almost N100 billion. The company will have to get bank loans in order to pay the dividend. Management can do crazy things in order to defend their stock price, like the way Emefiele tried to defend Naira


I am of the opinion that dividend declared should not be more than 80% of the Free cash flow

#seriouslytakingnotes#

ositadima1:
Some data from 2022 audited results:

Number of shares: 34,199,421,366
Proposed dividend: 90 kobo per share
EPS: 4.84
PAT: #170,277,000,000
Equity: #922,104,000,000

Audited results: https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/37990_UNITED_BANK_FOR_AFRICA_PLC-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2022_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_MARCH_2023.pdf

Return On Equity of about 18%, I will discount it to 10%, book value of N27 which I will discount to N15.


I think it is very cheap at its current price.


I will give it a fair value of N15 based on my guestimate

Justcul:
So it is wrong to sell 900,000 units at 27 in 2021, buy it back at 19 in 2022

Do the maths and tell me how many units you would have if you reinvest all..

My point is, you need to be smart with money too..

Habert wigwe always sell access shares at high prices, buys them back at low prices

What if the stock does not come down to N19, I will rather borrow against my current holdings to buy more shares if it comes down like I did in 2020 and then used my cash flow to liquidate the loan within 18 months


I actually sold 95% of my Access Bank shares when the CEO sold about 2 years. I try to follow insiders

emmanuelewumi:
Return On Equity of about 18%, I will discount it to 10%, book value of N27 which I will discount to N15.


I think it is very cheap at its current price.


I will give it a fair value of N15 based on my guestimate

Lol audio earning

Please check your mail OUR QWEEN

yMcy56:
Did you say shell holders, ok o, siddon there.
Alhaji Rabiu that his name appeared among the richest billionaire in the world........you think say na child's play. Lol.

The unit cost price for the 50units I left for Registrar palaver was N13.25. I just left it there as souvenir ...
I presume the man will continue to defend the share price sha.

https://nairametrics.com/2023/04/07/forbes-releases-comprehensive-2023-world-billionaire-rankings-as-three-nigerians-dangote-rabiu-adenuga-make-the-list/

Mfunkynation:
Please check your mail OUR QWEEN

Which queen? Make I just no talk.
Na you go check yours sir, replied since Wednesday.

Justcul:
So it is wrong to sell 900,000 units at 27 in 2021, buy it back at 19 in 2022

Do the maths and tell me how many units you would have if you reinvest all..

My point is, you need to be smart with money too..

Habert wigwe always sell access shares at high prices, buys them back at low prices

My own strategy is simple. If low buy, keep and monitor. If the price falls to 17, i will buy. If it rises, i won't sell unless i hve suspicion about the stock. If the coy gives bonus i sell the main shares and keep the bonus. Ex i hve 200k Nigeria brewery shares i got from that crazy 1 for 1 bonus they did in 4 years . I sold the main shares and kept the bonus. All my access bank shares are bonus gotten from the coy. I see it as free why sell to buy back again. Another ex i bought ucap at 5, why sell at 12 to buy back at 11 or 10, when i can collect dividends.

ositadima1:
Some stocks I checked and my estimated fair values:
Sterlnbank - #2.6
Fidelitybk - #6.5 **slightly overvalued
FCMB - #6.3
Zenithbank - #28.5 **slightly overvalued
Vitafoam - #36
Ucap - #16
Nahco - #16.5
Wapco - #33
Dangsugar- #45

With d exception of a few most of these stocks distributed less than half thier EPS as dividends, keeping yield low.

On this list. It's only WAPCO that's on my radar.

emmanuelewumi:
What if the stock does not come down to N19, I will rather borrow against my current holdings to buy more shares if it comes down like I did in 2020 and then used my cash flow to liquidate the loan within 18 months

I actually sold 95% of my Access Bank shares when the CEO sold about 2 years. I try to follow insiders

We all know, how Zenith, GTB, Stanbic, UBA Access range in price after dividends.. I won't argue here because it won't change anything.

Elon musk sells shares at high prices.. and reenter again..

I have doubled my zenith and GTB shares with this strategy.. I missed just 3 naira per share

BullBearMarket will show you the charts.. I invest with charts as well..

I sold my Zenith BTW 25 - 26.. bought double my initial holding.. its smart investing

After dividends, I will buy more Zenith at 19

nedu666:
My own strategy is simple. If low buy, keep and monitor. If the price falls to 17, i will buy. If it rises, i won't sell unless i hve suspicion about the stock. If the coy gives bonus i sell the main shares and keep the bonus. Ex i hve 200k Nigeria brewery shares i got from that crazy 1 for 1 bonus they did in 4 years . I sold the main shares and kept the bonus. All my access bank shares are bonus gotten from the coy. I see it as free why sell to buy back again. Another ex i bought ucap at 5, why sell at 12 to buy back at 11 or 10, when i can collect dividends.

Be matured and stop quoting absolute values here... you don't know my portfolio holdings..

Las Las, every man should follow what works for them. Best of luck Pa Emma and Nedu

Justcul:
We all know, how Zenith, GTB, Stanbic, UBA Access range in price after dividends.. I won't argue here because it won't change anything.

Elon musk sells shares at high prices.. and reenter again..

I have doubled my zenith and GTB shares with this strategy.. I missed just 3 naira per share

BullBearMarket will show you the charts.. I invest with charts as well..

I sold my Zenith BTW 25 - 26.. bought double my initial holding.. its smart investing

After dividends, I will buy more Zenith at 19

You should know that Elon Musk is a monkey hunter na.



Guy no happy say, Baba Warren Buffett never buy his company's shares

Justcul:
Be matured and stop quoting absolute values here... you don't know my portfolio holdings..

This is an investment platform, where we discuss figures.

EPS, ROE, stock prices, equity, portfolio etc are absolute values.

These absolute values might encourage some of us to work harder, be consistent and persistent in creating long lasting wealth through the stock market.


Back in the days before the advent of online trading we used to go to our Stockbrokers offices to place our mandates after which customers will start discussing their portfolios in absolute values.

Meeting point was Mr Biggs behind UAC head office and Mr Biggs at Kingsway building Marina.

150k was a lot of money then. When a guy showed us the dividend warrant of over 150k he just picked up from General Post Office Marina.. That was the dividend from a company ooo, I think it was either Nigeria Brewery or Guinness.

That was when I started slowing down on my kitii kata strategy and gave myself a 20 year stock market investment plan broken down into 4 phases of 5 years each

Agbalowomeri:
Lol audio earning

I hardly use the EPS of banks, I only add a premium of 75% to the total dividend declared.


UBA declared a total dividend of N1.10. Adding 75% premium to that will give roughly N1.90k.


I will use N1.90k as the EPS for UBA valuation

yMcy56:
Which queen? Make I just no talk. Na you go check your sir, replied since Wednesday.

Good morning QWEEN, sorry I was monitoring my inbox. I have seen it in my spam. kindly check again. Happy Easter Qween

emmanuelewumi:
This is an investment platform, where we discuss figures.

EPS, ROE, stock prices, equity, portfolio etc are absolute values.

These absolute values might encourage some of us to work harder, be consistent and persistent in creating long lasting wealth through the stock market.


Back in the days before the advent of online trading we used to go to our Stockbrokers offices to place our mandates after which customers will start discussing their portfolios in absolute values.

Meeting point was Mr Biggs behind UAC head office and Mr Biggs at Kingsway building Marina.

150k was a lot of morning then. When a guy showed us the dividend warrant of over 150k he just picked up from General Post Office Marina.. That was the dividend from a company ooo, I think it was either Nigeria Brewery or Guinness.

That was when I started slowing on my kitii kata strategy and gave myself a 20 year stock market investment plan broken down into 4 phases of 5 years each

Chai....
Good morning sir,
please how do I learn your investment plan broken down into 4 Phases of 5years each...
You are fill with knowledge on how to make a kill in stock market.
Happy Easter OUR KING

.

ositadima1:
Some stocks I checked and my estimated fair values:
Sterlnbank - #2.6
Fidelitybk - #6.5 **slightly overvalued
FCMB - #6.3
Zenithbank - #28.5 **slightly overvalued
Vitafoam - #36
Ucap - #16
Nahco - #16.5
Wapco - #33
Dangsugar- #45

With d exception of a few most of these stocks distributed less than half thier EPS as dividends, keeping yield low.

I stopped buying bank shares about 2 years ago.


I have the following as my fair prices


Vitafoam N33
Nahco N14
Wapco N31
Dang sugar N45.


Not a buy recommendation ooo

emmanuelewumi:
I stopped buying bank shares about 2 years ago.


I have the following as my fair prices


Vitafoam N33
Nahco N14
Wapco N31
Dang sugar N45.


Not a buy recommendation ooo

Pa Emma, hold on a sec,
are you saying that your WEALTH in stock investment is not coming from Banking shares.
I salute you oooo

Mfunkynation:
Chai....
Good morning sir,
please how do I learn your investment plan broken down into 4 Phases of 5years each...
You are fill with knowledge on how to make a kill in stock market.
Happy Easter OUR KING

It is nothing serious, just a plan of what you plan to invest every year and the type of dividend you hope to get at the end of each year. By making compound interest to be on your side you will be surprised at what your investment income can become in 10 years. Now imagine if the company increased the dividends paid over that period of 10 years, the investment income will be phenomenal



I have record of my annual dividend income for the past 7 years.

Using naira cost averaging, dividend reinvestment, portfolio rebalancing and smart use of loans my dividend income tripled between 2020 and 2022.


When I look at an investment asset. I consider the following.

1. income from the investment
2. Valuation of the investment
3. Market price of the investment.


Income from the investment is the most important to me. It is a fact. I prefer cash flow from an asset to networth or market value of an asset

Valuation is an informed opinion about the fair price of an asset based on the experience, knowledge and bias of the valuer.


Market price is also an opinion, at times they are not informed opinions. The opinions are determined by demand and supply, market sentiments, forward looking forecasts, performance etc.



Market price can be highly volatile. That is why I don't get loans based on the value of my portfolio but based on a maximum of times 3 of the dividend income the portfolio generated the previous year

Mfunkynation:
Pa Emma, hold on a sec,
are you saying that your WEALTH in stock investment is not coming from Banking shares.
I salute you oooo

I stopped buying additional shares from the sector 2 years ago, banking stocks now constitute 60% of my portfolio.

Experts in the house. Thank you for sharing your knowledge with others freely. I have a quick question on two manufacturing stocks that have been tagged underpriced for so long but are yet to show signs of reaching their potential even though their peers appear to be doing better.
WAPCO: (1) huge cost of production, administration and distribution
(2)High interest payment
(3) payment of dividend from pioneer reserve

FLOURMILLS: (1) huge cost of production, administration and distribution
(2)High interest payment

Are these not red flags for the 2 stocks in the short and medium term and how long could the long term be if it is to eventually come?

emmanuelewumi:
This is an investment platform, where we discuss figures.

EPS, ROE, stock prices, equity, portfolio etc are absolute values.

These absolute values might encourage some of us to work harder, be consistent and persistent in creating long lasting wealth through the stock market.


Back in the days before the advent of online trading we used to go to our Stockbrokers offices to place our mandates after which customers will start discussing their portfolios in absolute values.

Meeting point was Mr Biggs behind UAC head office and Mr Biggs at Kingsway building Marina.

150k was a lot of money then. When a guy showed us the dividend warrant of over 150k he just picked up from General Post Office Marina.. That was the dividend from a company ooo, I think it was either Nigeria Brewery or Guinness.

That was when I started slowing down on my kitii kata strategy and gave myself a 20 year stock market investment plan broken down into 4 phases of 5 years each

I insist you need to be smart in investments.. it's common sense. I must not follow your strategy in its entirety..

All models are modifiable to work better..

Since absolute numbers are fine here, I got 360,000 from geregu..

Justcul:
I insist you need to be smart in investments.. it's common sense. I must not follow your strategy in its entirety..

All models are modifiable to work better..

Since absolute numbers are fine here, I got 360,000 from geregu..

I am very happy for you as per Geregu although I won't touch it with a long pole, just keep an eye on the fundamentals, valuation and sustainability of the business.


Can you assist me with the return on equity, profit margin, ROIC, debt profile of Geregu

lasisi:
Experts in the house. Thank you for sharing your knowledge with others freely. I have a quick question on two manufacturing stocks that have been tagged underpriced for so long but are yet to show signs of reaching their potential even though their peers appear to be doing better.
WAPCO: (1) huge cost of production, administration and distribution
(2)High interest payment
(3) payment of dividend from pioneer reserve

FLOURMILLS: (1) huge cost of production, administration and distribution
(2)High interest payment

Are these not red flags for the 2 stocks in the short and medium term and how long could the long term be if it is to eventually come?

Do you have figures to back this eg EBIT/Finance cost, Opex/sales, Operating cash flow/capex , net debt/FCF and other ratios.

emmanuelewumi:
I am very happy for you as per Geregu although I won't touch it with a long pole, just keep an eye on the fundamentals, valuation and sustainability of the business.


Can assist me with the return on equity, profit margin, ROIC, debt profile of Geregu

Sir, on geregu, I didn't use any parameter but followed the owner. Same way I buy shares owned by Alhaji irrespective.

It was a gamble, and at the moment it has trippled in valuation

Justcul:
Sir, on geregu, I didn't use any parameter but followed the owner. Same way I buy shares owned by Alhaji irrespective.

It was a gamble, and at the moment it has trippled in valuation

The antecedents of the promoter sha, Forte Oil shareholders are still licking their wounds.


You can't compare Dangote with other billionaires who have shares listed on NGX.


Shareholders call Alhaji, " Omoluabi of NGX" for a reason