emmanuelewumi:



The antecedents of the promoter sha, Forte Oil shareholders are still licking their wounds.


You can't compare Dangote with other billionaires who have shares listed on NGX.


Shareholders call Alhaji, " Omoluabi of NGX" for a reason

Noted sir..

lasisi:
Experts in the house. Thank you for sharing your knowledge with others freely. I have a quick question on two manufacturing stocks that have been tagged underpriced for so long but are yet to show signs of reaching their potential even though their peers appear to be doing better.
WAPCO: (1) huge cost of production, administration and distribution
(2)High interest payment
(3) payment of dividend from pioneer reserve

FLOURMILLS: (1) huge cost of production, administration and distribution
(2)High interest payment

Are these not red flags for the 2 stocks in the short and medium term and how long could the long term be if it is to eventually come?

I was able to extract the following from the current annual report of Lafarge Africa about 2 weeks ago.



Revenue: N373 billion
Equity: N416 billion
Outstanding shares: 16.1b
EPS: N3.33
3 years average EPS N2.80k
Net asset per share N25.80k
Return On Equity 13%

Total Asset N601b
Current Asset N196b
Current liability N168b
Working capital N28b

Cash: N118b
Excess cash N99b


Operating expenses N113b
Capital expenses N23b
Finance cost N16b


Market capitalization N425b
Enterprise value N352b


Operating cash flow N100b
Free cash flow N76b


Profit margin 14.5%
FCF margin 20%


Gross profit N196b
EBITDA N108b
EBIT N86b
Operating Profit N84b
Profit after tax N53.6b


Capital employed N433b
Invested capital N334b
Net debt N17b



Gross profit/total asset 33%
Quick ratio 70%
Capex/sales 6%
Opex/Sales 30%


Return On Capital Employed 20%
Return On invested Capital 17.6%
Cash Flow Return On Investment 23.1%
Cash Return On invested Capital 23.6%


EV/Sale 0.95
EV/FCF 4.1
EV/EBIT 3.85
EV/EBITDA 3.25


FCF/Enterprise value yield 24.6%.




I will share that of BUA cement tomorrow and Dangote cement on Monday

emmanuelewumi:





I was able to extract the following from the current annual report of Lafarge Africa about 2 weeks ago.



...




I will share that of BUA cement tomorrow and Dangote cement on Monday

Following Religiously...

On this geregu issue,for you to influence the price 10% downward na just 30million naira,even if you get the bar where will you see 100000 block units?so the key is in just few peoples hand.many analyst are shouting 1000% overvalued,I just dey laugh.#otedollareffect

naturalflow:
On this geregu issue,for you to influence the price 10% downward na just 30million naira,even if you get the bar where will you see 100000 block units?so the key is in just few peoples hand.many analyst are shouting 1000% overvalued,I just dey laugh.#otedollareffect

Anything can happen, Oando dropped from over N100 to it current price, Forte Oil from over N200 to its current price, Transcorp from N10 about 20 years to its current price.


We should speculate or gamble with figures or charts.

When a manipulated stock that doesn't have fundamentals start falling, it comes crashing and investors can be trapped for 10 years and above.


I foresee Geregu doing a public offer and an offer for sale in order to attract more people into the company. That is when insiders will start to cash out gradually .


For now I don't think it is advisable for one to do long term investment with BUA cement and Geregu

Justcul:


I insist you need to be smart in investments.. it's common sense. I must not follow your strategy in its entirety..

All models are modifiable to work better..

Since absolute numbers are fine here, I got 360,000 from geregu..

Congratulations!
for you to get the figure, it means that you are.....

naturalflow:
On this geregu issue,for you to influence the price 10% downward na just 30million naira,even if you get the bar where will you see 100000 block units?so the key is in just few peoples hand.many analyst are shouting 1000% overvalued,I just dey laugh.#otedollareffect

Good thoughts!

In February 20 when Zagee made below post, I just said OK.
Geregu was selling at around 224 that time; moved up to 325 thereafter.........and later settled @323....
Funny enough, I told someone that I had the gut feelings it would touch 300 when it was trading at below 200, when I later saw the post I just laughed. Thank God it didn't go sideways, I for hear am...

Zagee:
As for GEREGU, applying cautions with the TA. RSI overbought on the monthly and 72% on the weekly.

Some logics are just needed by traders to trade some of these stocks.
BUACEM was noised that it would go back to N16 or something when it was listed, today it's closed to N100/share.
One of the criteria used by Forbes to measure the worth of top billionaires in the world was their equities. Top billionaires in Africa also......and we don't think these guys will do what it takes to stay on the list?
Lol. Make Una no mind me. It's not any form of assurance to stay or exit the shares.

emmanuelewumi:
I foresee Geregu doing a public offer and an offer for sale in order to attract more people into the company. That is when insiders will start to cash out gradually .

Noted sir.

Justcul:


So it is wrong to sell 900,000 units at 27 in 2021, buy it back at 19 in 2022

Do the maths and tell me how many units you would have if you reinvest all..

My point is, you need to be smart with money too..

Habert wigwe always sell access shares at high prices, buys them back at low prices

Oga, leave those people abeg, a friend was telling me how he intends growing 20m in zenith bank to 300m In next 12yrs not waiting for dividend just buy at 19 sell at 26 take the money to MMF then reinvest again when The Price is lower then finally settle down for dividend of 20m yearly na that time my closed eyes open that I needed to buckle up oo. Since he opened my eyes I have been thinking on how massive wealth can be made by being smart

YoungBuffet:



Oga, leave those people abeg, a friend was telling me how he intends growing 20m in zenith bank to 300m In next 12yrs not waiting for dividend just buy at 19 sell at 26 take the money to MMF then reinvest again when The Price is lower then finally settle down for dividend of 20m yearly na that time my closed eyes open that I needed to buckle up oo. Since he opened my eyes I have been thinking on how massive wealth can be made by being smart

And you the guy thinks it will keep falling after dividend Lol
Be prepared to wait for a couple of years sometimes before getting a reversal. Some people will soon look for zenith and GTCo @40 Lol

Agbalowomeri:


And you the guy thinks it will keep falling after dividend Lol
Be prepared to wait for a couple of years sometimes before getting a reversal. Some people will soon look for zenith and GTCo @40 Lol

Nothing is certain in life only death is certain but as long as FPIs are not in yet oga I assure u I will buy zenith at #20 is a matter of time the price u mentioned happened last in 2017 when FPIs we're around. From the price history of all the banking stocks they attained those prices when FPIs we're around and after their exit they follow their usual cycle

emmanuelewumi:





I was able to extract the following from the current annual report of Lafarge Africa about 2 weeks ago.



Revenue: N373 billion
Equity: N416 billion
Outstanding shares: 16.1b
EPS: N3.33
3 years average EPS N2.80k
Net asset per share N25.80k
Return On Equity 13%

Total Asset N601b
Current Asset N196b
Current liability N168b
Working capital N28b

Cash: N118b
Excess cash N99b


Operating expenses N113b
Capital expenses N23b
Finance cost N16b


Market capitalization N425b
Enterprise value N352b


Operating cash flow N100b
Free cash flow N76b


Profit margin 14.5%
FCF margin 20%


Gross profit N196b
EBITDA N108b
EBIT N86b
Operating Profit N84b
Profit after tax N53.6b


Capital employed N433b
Invested capital N334b
Net debt N17b



Gross profit/total asset 33%
Quick ratio 70%
Capex/sales 6%
Opex/Sales 30%


Return On Capital Employed 20%
Return On invested Capital 17.6%
Cash Flow Return On Investment 23.1%
Cash Return On invested Capital 23.6%


EV/Sale 0.95
EV/FCF 4.1
EV/EBIT 3.85
EV/EBITDA 3.25


FCF/Enterprise value yield 24.6%.




I will share that of BUA cement tomorrow and Dangote cement on Monday

Lafarge Africa got sound fundamentals.
It should be trading @50, but the Outstanding shares: 16.1b is high

OBAGADAFFI:


Lafarge Africa got sound fundamentals.
It should be trading @50, but the Outstanding shares: 16.1b is high

It is the lowest in the sector


Dangote cement has about 17.5 billion shares

Bua cement has 33 billion shares

yMcy56:

Good thoughts!

In February 20 when Zagee made below post, I just said OK.
Geregu was selling at around 224 that time; moved up to 325 thereafter.........and later settled @323....
Funny enough, I told someone that I had the gut feelings it would touch 300 when it was trading at below 200, when I later saw the post I just laughed. Thank God it didn't go sideways, I for hear am...


Some logics are just needed by traders to trade some of these stocks.
BUACEM was noised that it would go back to N16 or something when it was listed, today it's closed to N100/share.
One of the criteria used by Forbes to measure the worth of top billionaires in the world was their equities. Top billionaires in Africa also......and we don't think these guys will do what it takes to stay on the list?
Lol. Make Una no mind me. It's not any form of assurance to stay or exit the shares.

He can't defend the stock price for the next 2 years, unless he can do share buy back. But the company does not have the resources to do that.

He needs institutional investors like pension fund managers, mutual fund managers, trust fund managers, insurance companies to come on board,


Those are informed investors and can't buy the stock at the current price.


Back in the days, Intercontinental bank defended its share price at N44, same with Union Bank defended its share price at almost N40. Money that should be invested in the business in order to create wealth was given to Ololo and co to manipulate their stock prices. At the end of the day when it started raining it became a tsunami.


Be careful of CEOs and core investors who are more concerned about manipulating and defending their share prices because it won't end well

YoungBuffet:


Nothing is certain in life only death is certain but as long as FPIs are not in yet oga I assure u I will buy zenith at #20 is a matter of time the price u mentioned happened last in 2017 when FPIs we're around. From the price history of all the banking stocks they attained those prices when FPIs we're around and after their exit they follow their usual cycle

NGX will be on steroids in the second half of 2023, we might not see some of the prices again for some of the undervalued stocks

I for one, I don't believe in keeping cash in order to buy investments at cheap prices.


I believe investment cash flow is key, once I am getting predictable investment cash flow I can continue to buy undervalued assets periodically. When there is a major bear in the market, I can borrow against by investments in order to harness the opportunity.

There are people who have been keeping cash and sitting on the fence for the past 4 years. Some were even waiting for Zenith Bank at N5, I won't mention names

.

Pa Emma, how come Total Energies is paying dividend and even increased it when they have negative free cash flow? I did not do analysis o! I saw this on SimplyWallSt webssite

emmanuelewumi:
I for one, I don't believe in keeping cash in order to buy investments at cheap prices.


I believe investment cash flow is key, one I am getting predictable investment cash flow I can continue to buy undervalued assets periodically. When there is a major bear in the market, I can borrow against by investments in order to harness the opportunity.

There are people who have been keeping cash and sitting on the fence for the past 4 years. Some were even waiting for Zenith Bank at N5, I won't mention names

emmanuelewumi:



It is the lowest in the sector


Dangote cement has about 17.5 billion shares

Bua cement has 33 billion shares

Thank you.

Still wondering why the price is still @21

Cation:
Pa Emma, how come Total Energies is paying dividend and even increased it when they have negative free cash flow? I did not do analysis o! I saw this on SimplyWallSt webssite

Similar thing happened to Nestle in 2022.

I observed an increase inventory and receivables.

They had a positive free cash flow in 2021.


I don't think there is cause for an alarm, their cash and its equivalent increased by about N20 billion in 2022. It increased from N62 billion to N82 billion.


I will dig deeper into the financials next week

YoungBuffet:



Oga, leave those people abeg, a friend was telling me how he intends growing 20m in zenith bank to 300m In next 12yrs not waiting for dividend just buy at 19 sell at 26 take the money to MMF then reinvest again when The Price is lower then finally settle down for dividend of 20m yearly na that time my closed eyes open that I needed to buckle up oo. Since he opened my eyes I have been thinking on how massive wealth can be made by being smart

Isaac Newton was smart, but lost big time in the market.


Stock Market success is less than 15% of smartness the remaining 85% is mastering your emotions and understanding market psychology

emmanuelewumi:
There are people who have been keeping cash and sitting on the fence for the past 4 years. Some were even waiting for Zenith Bank at N5, I won't mention names

Peter

Thank you boss

emmanuelewumi:



Similar thing happened to Nestle in 2022.

I observed an increase inventory and receivables.

They had a positive free cash flow in 2021.


I don't think there is cause for an alarm, their cash and its equivalent increased by about N20 billion in 2022. It increased from N62 billion to N82 billion.


I will dig deeper into the financials next week

YoungBuffet:


Nothing is certain in life only death is certain but as long as FPIs are not in yet oga I assure u I will buy zenith at #20 is a matter of time the price u mentioned happened last in 2017 when FPIs we're around. From the price history of all the banking stocks they attained those prices when FPIs we're around and after their exit they follow their usual cycle

Leave Agba. he was waiting for GTBank at 12 when I was shouting buy last October

I bought GTbank N16.95, I think some heavy weight was offloading at the time..

Justcul:


Leave Agba. he was waiting for GTBank at 12 when I was shouting buy last October

I bought GTbank N16.95, I think some heavy weight was offloading at the time..

That GTCO price was a bargain. It's a stock loved by investors. It was most likely an FPI pulling out with no FPI ready to pick it, but local bargain hunters

YoungBuffet:



Oga, leave those people abeg, a friend was telling me how he intends growing 20m in zenith bank to 300m In next 12yrs not waiting for dividend just buy at 19 sell at 26 take the money to MMF then reinvest again when The Price is lower then finally settle down for dividend of 20m yearly na that time my closed eyes open that I needed to buckle up oo. Since he opened my eyes I have been thinking on how massive wealth can be made by being smart

Maybe you should consider changing your name... Stop disgracing my uncle...
Lol...

YoungBuffet:



Oga, leave those people abeg, a friend was telling me how he intends growing 20m in zenith bank to 300m In next 12yrs not waiting for dividend just buy at 19 sell at 26 take the money to MMF then reinvest again when The Price is lower then finally settle down for dividend of 20m yearly na that time my closed eyes open that I needed to buckle up oo. Since he opened my eyes I have been thinking on how massive wealth can be made by being smart

If the market was as predictable as you imply, some of us with over twenty years experience will be zillionaires!

The rivalry between Zenith and GTco was First vs Union before, funny how time has changed.

"Nothing is certain except death and taxes" ~ Benjamin Franklin.

owolabi5:


If the market was as predictable as you imply, some of us with over twenty years experience will be zillionaires!

The rivalry between Zenith and GTco was First vs Union before, funny how time has changed.

"Nothing is certain except death and taxes" ~ Benjamin Franklin.

Over 20 years experience on NGX, please always come around to share your wealth of experience with us especially to the young investors who think they are smart.

owolabi5:


If the market was as predictable as you imply, some of us with over twenty years experience will be zillionaires!

The rivalry between Zenith and GTco was First vs Union before, funny how time has changed.

"Nothing is certain except death and taxes" ~ Benjamin Franklin.

I remember that First versus Union. I was a Union FC supporter until that calabar man sank my boat

That's the good or bad thing about the market. So many unforseen variables

owolabi5:


If the market was as predictable as you imply, some of us with over twenty years experience will be zillionaires!

The rivalry between Zenith and GTco was First vs Union before, funny how time has changed.

"Nothing is certain except death and taxes" ~ Benjamin Franklin.

The last paragraph, nothing is certain except death and taxes


I know that the investment income in my bank account is certain, thank God I don't bank with weak and distressed banks.


Growth is not certain in most of the cases, but a growth of the dividend paid can give a semblance of the business growth.


Reason why I have not forgiven UBA due to the dividend cut by the company few years ago. Tony wanted to pay a bigger dividend, I think the dividend cut was due to CBN recommendation.

yMcy56:

Good thoughts!

In February 20 when Zagee made below post, I just said OK.
Geregu was selling at around 224 that time; moved up to 325 thereafter.........and later settled @323....
Funny enough, I told someone that I had the gut feelings it would touch 300 when it was trading at below 200, when I later saw the post I just laughed. Thank God it didn't go sideways, I for hear am...

...and this was me 2 days later. That goal post I have scored a 340% capital growth + dividend. And I have exited. Except, some long term institution is coming to buy at 300 no wahala.

BabsO2:


That GTCO price was a bargain. It's a stock loved by investors. It was most likely an FPI pulling out with no FPI ready to pick it, but local bargain hunters

Sitting on good profits right now with at least N2.50 dividend to come

If it goes to 40, I'll sell and wait for pullback and enter again