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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / Foreign Affairs / Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century (9423 Views)
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Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by pansophist(m): 12:23pm On Sep 04, 2023 |
2 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by Regex: 1:07pm On Sep 04, 2023 |
pansophist: Nice way to put it. Now I can sleep with both eyes closed! 1 Like |
Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by Kipaji: 2:46pm On Sep 04, 2023 |
emmaodet: Do you guys suspect that all this is a theatrical performance like I do? I wouldn't be surprised to learn that all these guys are best friends behind closed doors, or are playing a game whose rules have been set by bodies independently of them. |
Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by Kipaji: 2:57pm On Sep 04, 2023 |
Gerrard59: And what about Ukrainian men? Most of them had to face the merciless Russian army whole their female counterparts are being f*cked all over the world. When the war ends, they'll make documentaries about how women are most affected. Enough is enough. 3 Likes
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Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by pansophist(m): 10:41pm On Sep 04, 2023 |
Kipaji: No they are not friends behind closed doors. If one objectively follow the history of the world, the idea that they are all friends behind close door can't be entertained. But I can agree if it's between national political parties in the same country. The left and the right are just different wings of the same bird. But internationally? Of course not. You can't be closed friends when over 200k Ukrainian men have died. 6 Likes |
Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by Gerrard59(m): 1:37pm On Sep 05, 2023 |
Gerrard59: https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1698709810164945014 Only a matter of time and SMIC will mass produce the chip and prices will plunge. The Chinese are good at that. 4 Likes 2 Shares |
Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by pansophist(m): 4:04pm On Sep 05, 2023 |
Gerrard59: The irony that SMIC started operation in just two decades. And is now a peer competitor for western chip industry. This will make Taiwan completely irrelevant to Washington if their chip industry is taken over by the mainland's SMIC. Just as HongKong fell into the hand of the mainland in 1997 with no single shot fired, Taiwan will have the same fate. The evidence can be seen with HongKong. HK was the financial hub of Asia for decades, until the mainland developed so fast, that HongKong is no longer the gem it used to be. When Taiwan looses it's edge on the chip industry, it will become so broke, that the people will rebel to join the mainland by force. I can't see this playing out another way. China is definitely bidding their time, and waiting for the perfect wind to blow. The ultimate victory is one which is won without a fight - Sun Tzu 11 Likes 4 Shares |
Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by pansophist(m): 4:10pm On Sep 05, 2023 |
Gerrard59: If China did not mass produced every day consumables and telephones such as techno, I won't be surprised if there will be some shop where people go to call their loved ones on video call, because iphones and Samsung are so expensive. Just like cyber cafe, when we pay to browse to check our emails, or even make phone calls back then. Cheap phones made sure those things never happened. The success of China is a success for the world. "Common prosperity" is their foreign policy slogan. E go reach everybody. 10 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by LordAdam16: 5:37pm On Sep 05, 2023 |
Gerrard59: Believe me it is impossible to overemphasize the significance of this development. Besides a potential price war, the flexibility and policy maneuverability this offers China is immense. It is a geopolitical uppercut. There are still a couple of pertinent questions about their capability. Did they sidestep sanctions by re-routing Western machines through other countries or did they develop the machines domestically. What process did they use? How efficient is the manufacturing process and more (i.e how many usable chips are they getting per wafer)? Regardless of the answers to those questions, this is huge. I am pleasantly surprised. -Lord 2 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by Gerrard59(m): 5:58am On Sep 06, 2023 |
pansophist: Yeah, Shenzen and Shanghai have taken over. Hong Kong is "just" there. Singapore is better placed, with the majority being Chinese. Hong Kong now depends on China rather than the world, aka the West, for investments and growth. When Taiwan looses it's edge on the chip industry, it will become so broke, that the people will rebel to join the mainland by force. She would. It was only a matter of time. China is the biggest single market for TSMC, Nvidia, Samsung, Intel, ASML, Tokyo Electron etc. Those CEOs lamented that blocking off the Chinese would force them to produce chips on their own, thereby cutting off Western and allied companies. Now, it is happening. As we all know, once the Chinese have perfected the technology, e go become pure water. We fit see replica for Onitsha sef. LordAdam16: It is a hooge development, and I am only impressed by how fast they perfected it, not by its reality. I knew the Chinese would retaliate by producing the chips by themselves. They got the talent, die-hard spirit, capital, long-term thinking. Honestly, unless they succumb to threats or war, I don't see them failing in their quest to achieve what they want. There are still a couple of pertinent questions about their capability. Did they sidestep sanctions by re-routing Western machines through other countries or did they develop the machines domestically. What process did they use? How efficient is the manufacturing process and more (i.e how many usable chips are they getting per wafer)? From what I have read, mainly by Westerners who come across as defeated, they are yet to produce the EUV machines. One aptly stated that it is done for once the Chinese begin to produce those machines. I have forgotten the specific terms, but the Chinese are only one generation away from the Taiwanese and Americans. Without the machines of ASML, it gets tough to get to that point, which is why the export restrictions came into place. However, because Japan and the Netherlands lodge their intentions of restricting supplies of those equipment at the WTO, the Chinese purchased a record quantities of those equipment before the restrictions came into effect (link attached: free-to-read). So, now is the time for reverse engineering, paying high salaries to lure foreigners working in ASML, Tokyo Electron, and TSMC to work for Chinese chipmakers. Then, we also have Chinese-Americans who are maltreated because of their origin, racial attacks here and there moving back to the motherland. It is only a matter of time. https://archive.md/H3r3G 2 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by Gerrard59(m): 6:30am On Sep 06, 2023 |
The axiom that says to understand the future is to look at the past. History always repeats itself. Now, Western journalists lament that China enjoys high surpluses due to increased exports and the Renminbi is undervalued. However, from the screenshot below, the Yen is actually undervalued when compared to the dollar. Thus, Japanese exporters enjoy more because their goods are cheaper to buyers outside Japan. But no complaints about that from Washington. Another whine is that the Chinese don't purchase goods from the outside world. That is a bare-faced lie, as I stated in my comment (screenshot attached). The solution they proffer? China has to rein in on exports and do some kini kan to the Yuan aka something something Plaza Accord Article (free-to-read): https://archive.md/u3Drq
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Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by LordAdam16: 8:40am On Sep 06, 2023 |
Gerrard59: China is past the point where threats or war can derail their quest. Cutting off China completely will cause deflation in the West. 'To the last Taiwanese' in a war will never fly. They're out of options. All of the West's current efforts to reign in China are simply figurative mine laying and China has demonstrated they have capable figurative minesweepers. From what I have read, mainly by Westerners who come across as defeated, they are yet to produce the EUV machines. One aptly stated that it is done for once the Chinese begin to produce those machines. I have forgotten the specific terms, but the Chinese are only one generation away from the Taiwanese and Americans. Without the machines of ASML, it gets tough to get to that point, which is why the export restrictions came into place. However, because Japan and the Netherlands lodge their intentions of restricting supplies of those equipment at the WTO, the Chinese purchased a record quantities of those equipment before the restrictions came into effect (link attached: free-to-read). TSMC and Samsung are on 3nm. The iPhone 15 PM to be released next week will have 3nm. 7nm is 3 generations back. The progression is 7nm, 5nm, 4nm, 3nm. SMIC will need to reroute ASML machinery through friendly nations to keep up. I have some degree of familiarity with these lithography machines and they're engineering marvels, taking up entire rooms. ASML has R& offices in only the US and NL. None in the UK, Germany, Israel, or Japan, because the Americans want complete control. There are no more than a few thousand experts in the entire planet with the know how to produce these machines. And modern Western high-value product design guidelines mandate compartmentalization. So the development teams for each major component are siloed. While the team that puts it all together have no expertise in the exact proprietary methods used to develop the components. This is why when the likes of Apple and co buy companies in the space, they buy the entire organogram. Then poach star talents from rival companies with the lure of working with the creme de la creme in their ultra specific advanced field. So you could secure the schematics for the latest machine through an hack and be unable to do anything with it. Poach a handful of employees and you run into a related problem because they have only specialized knowledge about a few components. This explains why Apple has been unable to design a high-performing 5G modem chip for years even though they bought Intel's entire modem chip division and poached talents from Qualcomm, Samsung, and Huawei. This is just design, they'll still have to use the Japanese and Taiwanese to pack and manufacture the modem chips. China is keen to do everything within the mainland, so yea, saying it'd be tough is an understatement. They have their work cut out for them. That said, there is only one direction they can go: UP. I'm in awe of their machining talent and if anyone can do it, it's China. Lastly, the West is erecting roadblocks because they know when China hacks these advanced tech, the race is over. Look at battery technology. The West can't catch up. The rapid reiteration in China has everyone in a doozy. Tesla started out with Panasonic, now they're deepening partnership with CATL. And the Biden Administration had to mandate that components be made in the US to qualify for EV credit. This is a subtle attempt to onboard Chinese proprietary battery tech. Besides, when China figure these tech out, they'll become the preferred destination for talent and it'll kickstart a snowball effect. Now the US offers full scholarship for STEM PhDs and median wage stipend. Then, it'd becom full scholarship from masters level, citizenship immediately a program is completed, and six-figure starting stipend. The secret to America's success is poaching talents. The moment a new bloc emerges with comparable draws and without silly sh*t like dozens of genders, all the innovation and creativity they showboat with will diminish. This is one of the stellar reasons why I'm a proponent of multipolarism. It'd change the dynamics of a lot of things for our progenies. -Lord 6 Likes 3 Shares |
Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by Regex: 8:54am On Sep 06, 2023 |
LordAdam16: Abeg I want ask, which course you study for university and which university you go? No vex say I deh ask. 2 Likes |
Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by LordAdam16: 9:05am On Sep 06, 2023 |
Gerrard59: Per your comment on decoupling. Is it possible that the West is pushing climate change, sustainability, and cutting energy use/emissions; specifically to get their population accustomed to a lower standard of living? A la "you will own nothing and be happy". Precisely because decoupling from China and the budding BRICS+ bloc will be the worst self-own in Western history. I think the elites see the handwriting on the wall and know the era where the rest of the world sends them tangible goods and they repatriate worthless fiat then force everyone to accept their "international rules-based order" under the threat of sanctions, regime changes, aircraft carriers, and nukes will go tits up. And whenever SHTF in the West and QoL drops drastically, it's "Guillotine Season". To get ahead of it, they're deliberately lowering living standards and making their pliable populace eat it up as "for the environment and our children". Netherlands closing farms to "cut Nitrogen emissions by 80%". France closing some short-flight routes. Asking people to cut electric usage while simultaneously pushing EVs. I mean from a policy perspective, there are lots of benefits for Western policymakers for the shift. But you have to wonder if they're not preparing for a world where the Golden Billion has to share the podium with a Platinum Tre Billion that's going to squeeze them economically. -Lord 4 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by emmaodet: 9:50am On Sep 06, 2023 |
Regex: Lord Adams dey always burst your brain shey? 1 Like |
Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by Regex: 9:53am On Sep 06, 2023 |
emmaodet: Ah swear. |
Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by emmaodet: 10:18am On Sep 06, 2023 |
LordAdam16: Omoh...The US is really out for battle without hiding it Such a shame for her who goes about talking about equality and so forth |
Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by budaatum: 1:02pm On Sep 06, 2023 |
Gerrard59: https://wapo.st/3Z4tsYQ
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Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by budaatum: 1:09pm On Sep 06, 2023 |
pansophist: This, Sun Tzu and all other knowledge China has evolved through its over 2000 year history, is what the Western world seems to ignore much. It's like they consider China like the India and Africa they wrote history for, and at a time when India is considering a name change. I can just about see China delighting in the fact it is underestimated. 1 Like 1 Share
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Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by pansophist(m): 1:59pm On Sep 06, 2023 |
budaatum: Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak — The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting. If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. Sun Tzu. 9 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by Regex: 2:29pm On Sep 06, 2023 |
pansophist: The question I do ask myself is this: What if there was no countries like Russia, China and to an extent, Iran? And recently my answer to it is, balance. There will be other countries raised by nature to balance things out. 3 Likes |
Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by Gerrard59(m): 2:44pm On Sep 06, 2023 |
LordAdam16: Israel and Singapore are notable examples that come to mind. The former works with China for some favour I can't comprehend. The latter is majority Chinese, with a significant proportion leaning to the motherland. Japan is also there as many Chinese are in the corporate industry, and China penetrates her systems how she likes. If the Saudis/other rich Arab nations invest in chipmaking companies as planned, that is another route. There are no more than a few thousand experts in the entire planet with the know how to produce these machines. And modern Western high-value product design guidelines mandate compartmentalization. So the development teams for each major component are siloed. While the team that puts it all together have no expertise in the exact proprietary methods used to develop the components. Thanks for the explanation. It brought me back to reality. China is keen to do everything within the mainland, so yea, saying it'd be tough is an understatement. They have their work cut out for them. Yes, only China can do it for the factors I outlined earlier. Lastly, the West is erecting roadblocks because they know when China hacks these advanced tech, the race is over. That is a sealed deal. China dominates that space. Anyone who tries to enter either work with the Chinese or gets priced out of the market. Ford also uses the technology by CATL, so does Volkswagen. Article: https://archive.md/fRKsf (free-to-read). The article suggests trade barriers to counter China's dominance. Man, these dudes cannot compete on a level playing field. Besides, when China figure these tech out, they'll become the preferred destination for talent and it'll kickstart a snowball effect. Now the US offers full scholarship for STEM PhDs and median wage stipend. Then, it'd becom full scholarship from masters level, citizenship immediately a program is completed, and six-figure starting stipend. That is the good thing about the Chinese: they ensure the tech is free for all. Come and get your own. In fact, we can produce it bespoke for you. I believe they will make it ubiquitous and cheap. I expect hawkers in Ikot Ekpene to sell EUV equipment when the Chinese make them available. The secret to America's success is poaching talents. The moment a new bloc emerges with comparable draws and without silly sh*t like dozens of genders, all the innovation and creativity they showboat with will diminish. With the H1B backlog, racial attacks on East Asians, Asia's growing economic power, many will steer clear of the US either of the education or the desire to stay back. The H1B system cannot be changed because doing so will alter the US' demographic makeup. Indians and Chinese will dominate everywhere. Birth rates by White women have plummeted to very low levels. The die-hard academic spirit is not there. I saw a picture of the US Olympiad team (forgotten the subject), only one White dude. The rest were Chinese. At the bold, the US poached German and Eastern European engineers and scientists. Stole tech from Britain and Germany. So, when the rabble-rousing of IP theft is peddled around, it makes me laugh. This is one of the stellar reasons why I'm a proponent of multipolarism. It'd change the dynamics of a lot of things for our progenies. It seems the multipolarism would come faster than I expected. Na true Panso talk, if we don't fully enjoy the benefits due to old age, our children will. 5 Likes |
Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by Gerrard59(m): 2:52pm On Sep 06, 2023 |
LordAdam16: That is an interesting point of view you have there. Because to be honest, I never grasped the rationale behind closing farms because of some infinitesimal quantities of GHGS. BTW, this environmental woke movement is only prevalent in the West. Across rich Asia, it does not exist. People use resources as they like. But chai, apart from the West and her Asian allies, the rest of the world poor o 4 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by budaatum: 3:07pm On Sep 06, 2023 |
pansophist: It's all over Christian teaching too, but impatience ensures negative passivity is all that's seen and not it's power. Now, if only we all go learn to organise in China instead of in UK, Nigeria might be greater. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jar8fRjUS9w?si=tP8XvQZrmkxLIxYD 3 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by pansophist(m): 4:42pm On Sep 06, 2023 |
Regex: Evil only gets powerful when good does nothing. Just imagine within the past decade where Russia and china start flexing their diplomatic muscle, hegemony is at the verge of crashing. Western imperialism could persist for so long because it's one of a kind, and I can argue the world havent seen it before, hence it lasted. Now that the facts and data are all out there, the global South will never let it happen again. I only hope that countries like Nigeria jump on the momentum and transform with the tides. But sadly, I can say that nigeria is fully in the hands and clutches of the imperialist. The biggest scam evil will play is to pretend it's not there. It's there, and if you have eyes, you can see it. 8 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by pansophist(m): 4:44pm On Sep 06, 2023 |
budaatum: I think before nigeria gets better, it needs to dump democracy. Democracy won't take us anywhere. 3 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by Regex: 4:56pm On Sep 06, 2023 |
pansophist: I'm afraid Nigeria will not jump on that bandwagon of change. The biggest step to self-realisation is admitting to oneself that one has been the cause of their own problems. Nigeria is not ready to admit that, at least not her politicians nor the citizens. Perhaps we will play catch on just like we did after colonialism. 2 Likes |
Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by seguno2: 5:09pm On Sep 06, 2023 |
pansophist: Was Oyo Alaafin not as democratic, if not more democratic than Britain and its hereditary monarchy Head of State 1 Like 1 Share |
Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by seguno2: 5:11pm On Sep 06, 2023 |
Regex: Do you apply this to our democracy, by working to be part of nature balancing things out in our political and governance arena |
Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by pansophist(m): 5:12pm On Sep 06, 2023 |
seguno2: Have you eaten? 1 Like 1 Share |
Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by Maxxim: 5:14pm On Sep 06, 2023 |
pansophist:🤭😁 1 Like |
Re: Multipolarism Versus Hegemonism - The Great Power Shift Of The 21st Century by seguno2: 5:17pm On Sep 06, 2023 |
pansophist: Do evil people emerge from among us to be leaders, in our modern democracy, because good people are doing nothing but japa to Western countries |
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