₦airaland Forum

BabsO2:
Good to see UBA at N24.

I can see @currentprice inside his hole laughing silently

BabsO2:
Good to see UBA at N24.
Slow and steady it is marching forward. It still should have a long way to go as book value is already above N50 since Q2 results. Abi the book value na fake? I don't think so. When will confidence return with banks trading close to or above book values ? Perhaps when inflation returns to single digit.

Not a buy recommendation. Just a short note at Km 24.

It might be difficult to sell at the N50 book value, you need to consider the unleveraged return on equity of the business and the expected minimum total return on investment from naira denominated assets and Investments

yMcy56:
Depends on where you intend to move the fund if you exit...
*Apply DD*

Thanks a lot. Grateful as always 🙏

emmanuelewumi:
It might be difficult to sell at the N50 book value, you need to consider the unleveraged return on equity of the business and the expected minimum total return on investment from naira denominated assets and Investments

GT always commands better market price due to long standing trust by investors due to its better returns with respect to book value etc. Its price has been operating within 10% of its book value for quite a while and looks set to exceed book value.

Globally many banks have share prices at or above book value. Our banks are not different in leverage compared to global banks. I think our banks even have higher CAR's due to more stringent CBN regulations which is fair in view of the operating environment.

I noted till inflation reduces to single digit most Naija banks will continue selling at discount to book value. (Interest rates will drop when inflation rates drop)

BabsO2:
GT always commands better market price due to long standing trust by investors due to its better returns with respect to book value etc. Its price has been operating within 10% of its book value for quite a while and looks set to exceed book value.

Globally many banks have share prices at or above book value. Our banks are not different in leverage compared to global banks. I think our banks even have higher CAR's due to more stringent CBN regulations which is fair in view of the operating environment.

I noted till inflation reduces to single digit most Naija banks will continue selling at discount to book value. (Interest rates will drop when inflation rates drop)

The minimum required return on a naira denominated asset in other to beat inflation is 20% and above as a result the banks will always sell at a discount to their book value in order to achieve that

emmanuelewumi:
The minimum required return on a naira denominated asset in other to beat inflation is 20% and above as a result the banks will always sell at a discount to their book value in order to achieve that

That's why most banks will not achieve close to book values till inflation goes down. Used Yahoo to quicky check a few global banks many are down in market price and operate at price to book values in range of 0.5 to 1.5 right now with Europe more bearish than North America

jamace:
*COPIED*

FINAL EXIT OF P&G: Farewell my 1st Love.

I finished my Youth Service in Feb. 2005. I was given a letter of recommendation from where I served in Jos (Vitafoam Nig. Plc). I was scheduled for an interview at their Head Office in Oba Akran, Lagos. I was to resume in their Kano Branch as Maintenance Engineer but religious crisis happened around that time. They had to shut down the Site to forestall collateral damages. Hence, I had to officially be flung to the ocean of "labour market". My first bite of "Nigeria Happened to You".

Fast forward to 2007. I had switched to full computer engineering. I cloned Computer systems for people and repaired same in the popular Computer Village in Ikeja, Lagos. I just dey hustle anyhow to make ends meet. I always trekked from Opebi, where I was staying with the Owolabi's (May God bless that family for me) to Egbon Ojo's Office in Computer Village where I normally perch with my flash drive tied to my neck as symbol of a computer guy. It's in this state Sister Opeyemi Ajayi sent me a link to text my details to in Ibadan. I did and from that text message, my journey of 11years commenced.

I sincerely didn't know how big P&G was. I already passed UAC Management Trainee Test, scheduled for their Medical when P&G interviews were going on. A classmate I met at UAC in Lagos complained about their work culture, which was not too palatable. I shared my predicament with Pastor Kehinde Owolabi who told me how big the Company was in UK where he stayed for years. How Nigerians even lobbied and prayed to be their adhoc staff. This made me settle for P&G as my First Career Love. I resumed Sept. 13, 2007.

P&G would first host you for a month in Kakanfo Hotel in Ibadan if you didn't have anyone to stay with in Ibadan. All bills on them. The Company had bus that conveyed you to and fro the designated Bus Stop. You're trained about the culture of the Company for One Month. Free healthcare in the best hospitals in Ibadan and Lagos. Quality food at the canteen. My first salary was huge then because of all the prorated allowances. For the first time, I was treated with dignity. Naturally, the company gave me a sense of ownership till tomorrow.

Chief Olusegun Obasanjo might have his negatives but Ebora Owu knows Economics. He blocked border against products being manufactured in Nigeria. Businesses were booming. We work round the clock to meet up with orders from distributors. We only shut down on 24th December and startup night of 25th. Same thing for New Year Anniversary. We shut down on the 31st, start up 1st January Night. Full operation by 2nd. We couldn't cope with the demands. P&G had to be forced to invest more in Nigeria.

I first travelled out of Nigeria courtesy of my First Love, P&G. I, with four others were sent on an automation training with Rockwell Automation in UK. Our Nigerian coursemates for that One Month were people from Total, Mobil, etc. No manufacturing company dared such investment but the almighty P&G. You're escorted even to Visa Office by Mobile Police entourage. You're taken to and fro the airport with same entourage. Because they see you as asset that nothing should happen to. Imagine giving "ordinary technician" such honour. That's my P&G for you.

"AGBARA, THE FUTURE."

Because of the market demands, P&G decided to expand their investments in Nigeria. Paper section of the company was relocated to Agbara. Over $300Million was invested there with state of the art facility built by Julius Berger Nig. Ltd. We had Gym facilities. We had massagers. We had table tennis. We had football pitch. We generated our own power with a massive Gas Generator. Your badge is the access to doors, offices, canteen, gym, everywhere. These were the stuffs you only saw in American movies like 24.

P&G prioritizes trainings. Some of my guys like Betiku Olubunmi Jude , Gbadamosi Adekunle , etc were on training for the new production lines in Cairo for a complete calendar year. If you're married, you could go with your family, even some that gave birth there like Samson Oloyede Johnson went with Malle that did omogwuo in Cairo. My friend even named his child after the Cairo Doctor that meant a lot to their family. That's how important you are to that Company. They value you. How would you not love such company? The Femcare guys like Stanley Emite , Aderanti Yomi , Adewale Ajibade ,etc, went to Germany for theirs. That's how big P&G was.

"Agbara, the Future" became the slogan. That was the plan before Nigeria happened to my beloved P&G. The startups for the new lines started getting extended due to our Nigerianness. Custom's policy summersaults started affecting the logistics. Border flung opened. Cheaper products littered the market courtesy of another Govt policies. 3 brand new babycare lines were brought for initial installations but only 2 could be installed. Cheaper products had taken over the market before we produced our first diaper. The "future" was punctured from the world "go".

We would produce but no one to buy. Sometimes you wanted to produce, Shell might tell you, they couldn't supply gas to power you generator. You had to switch to expensive diesel to power the other diesel generators to produce to meet up with the little demands. To transport the finished products became a challenge too. The roads were horrible. Containers doing gymnastics by summersaulting anyhow on those gully-holes (because those were not potholes). I even learnt the companies around the axis like GSK, UNILEVER, P&G, to mention but few approached the State Govt and proposed to fix the road with a possible tax waivers to no avail. They told them to bring the money while their works ministry help them fix it. The companies backed out because of the integrity of the govt. Hence, the road became unpassable over time.

I will be hypocritical if I failed to mention few of the damages done inhouse. Before we even left Ibadan, stories of how pallets of products were disappearing in Alomaja wearhouse became regular news. To the point that a whole truckload of products was rumoured missing... T'ori Olorun! Guys became overnight millionaires at the expense of the company. Contracts were inflated anyhow. One that I was particularly privy of: Our chiller had issues. I and Oluwatomisin Adeoluwa Adetola narrowed it down to a defective Compressor. We sourced for a supplier online that promised to bring it the next morning. Price was #600k with installations. We presented it to the TSG Manager then. He claimed it won't fly since the guy was not on the list of suppliers. Lo and behold, the guy given it to presented #2.4m. He couldn't even fix the electrical connections, I was the one compelled to fix it for him. How that made sense to anyone I don't know.

Agbara ceased to be the future courtesy of both external and internal self-destructive birthed out of greed and untamed avarice. The investors borrowed us $300m at the exchange rate of less than #200/$. In Buhari's first 6months, it had jumped to #500. He fell ill and Prof. Osinbajo was able to stabilize it at #350/$. P&G had no alternative than to do all it could to stay afloat business-wise. Gradual retrenchment was introduced. Flow-to-work became the mantra. Before the next OGSM in 2018, it was decided Agbara plant should shut down! Hundreds of professionals retrenched. I remember the words of Akinola Jibola while we were powering down Babycare Line 1: "We are shutting down what should put foods on the tables of the generations to come." It daily rings in my ears.

I hoped against hope P&G would come back but it won't. I first heard about it from a top echelon before it became 'kariile' news. You prayed such news shouldn't be true. No one finds it easy to share the demise of his loved ones. Adieu my 1st Career Love. You actually "Improved and touched our lives". You meant well but we honestly don't deserve you. We messed you up. If you're only being abused by outsiders, you could have stayed but abuse by your loved ones was the last straw that broke the camel's back. All your "offsprings" like Ariel, Pampers, Always, Duracell, Oral B, etc would always have my endorsement any day, anytime. Love you P&G.

Reading this and I'm almost moved to tears not for anything, but for Nigeria. The country is definitely at a lowest low at the moment. The last administration should never have happened.

ttmax09:
Reading this and I'm almost moved to tears not for anything, but for Nigeria. The country is definitely at a lowest low at the moment. The last administration should never have happened.

Similar feeling, all the administration after OBJ till date should not have happened.

Much has been said about the P&G exit. Here’s another view:

“*More on P&G and lessons to learn!*


Know Thy Market
- 𝕿𝖞𝖊 𝕾𝖙𝖗𝖆𝖙𝖊𝖌𝖎𝖘𝖙

I have heard it said that P&G left Nigeria because of bad governance policies - policy summersaults, forex issues, and then its repatriation issues. And the like

Possibly.

But I doubt.

I suspect its due more to wrong Strategy.

I suspect P&G had the wrong Market Strategy.

So P&G lost to competition...

To that ghost called 'market forces'

In every single product category P&G operated in within Nigeria, at least one product entered the market in the last few years, and stole their market share.

P&G makes Ariel detergent. Pray tell...who uses that expensive product in these hard times? Why would Ariel sell when there are brands like Good Mama, Viva, Sunlight, Klin and Zip in the market - offering similar quality at lower prices?

The Nigerian market is more price conscious than brand conscious.

How about diapers? Molfix (from Turkey) entered the Nigerian market 2 years ago and basically snatched the market from underneath all the top players by providing basic functionality at an affordable price point.

The lesson is this:

Know Thy Market.

P&G should have gone to learn from a company like....Cadbury

Cadbury operates in 52 countries.

Every year Cadbury global celebrates their top selling product in all of their 52 countries.

Most years a product from Nigeria wins.

That product is called:

TomTom

TomTom has the right strategy.

Targeted at, and well suited for, the peculiarities of Nigeria's socio economic circumstances.

TomTom knows their market.....cold.

It will therefore be difficult for one company from Turkey or China to enter the Nigerian market and take on TomTom successfully.

Know Thy Market.

A simple lesson that P&G did not learn.

𝕿𝖞𝖊 𝕾𝖙𝖗𝖆𝖙𝖊𝖌𝖎𝖘𝖙. 07.12.23”

Igi pawpaw o ni wo pawa o

BabsO2:
That's why most banks will not achieve close to book values till inflation goes down. Used Yahoo to quicky check a few global banks many are down in market price and operate at price to book values in range of 0.5 to 1.5 right now with Europe more bearish than North America

With upcoming rate cuts starting possibly first half of 2024 in the US and contagion across the world, christmas came early. Financials may be back on steroids to attain reasonable book value pricing. How it translates to NGX during re-capitalisation era should be fun to see.

[quote author=PuristForest post=127459961]Royalex is gone, next stop is 0.92, its till good for entry.picked some units' i like regalins,

I see it above #1+,let wait and see how it will play out because market have its own mind.

My Common sense target for GTCO

Best quarter organic EPS 3.1

3.1x 4 x 4 = N49.60

aj8:
My Common sense target for GTCO

Best quarter organic EPS 3.1

3.1x 4 x 4 = N49.60

why x 4 x 4?

ACCESS: Sighted @22.50! ....22.75.....23!!
Even with offers more than bids as at now......
* The forces buying this are not on queue at all.....
* Over 1bn spent so far .....

FBNH: 24.60....24.80..

UBA: 24.35.......24.60

ZENITH: 36.90.....36.95......37!

FIDELITY: 9.50!

PuristForest:
67% correction from 35.5 ..not bad...its definately in the last wave of the correction or A wave of the correction, in any case, its a solid case for entry. best entry is 10.84 - 11..11.4 is 1.618 fib of the abc correction, so i will start buy from there.

?

yMcy56:
ACCESS: Sighted @22.50! ....22.75.....23!!
Even with offers more than bids as at now......
* The forces buying this are not on queue at all.....
* Over 1bn spent so far .....

FBNH: 24.60

UBA: 24.35....

There seems to be renewed interest in bank stocks?

yMcy56:
ACCESS: Sighted @22.50! ....22.75.....23!!
Even with offers more than bids as at now......
* The forces buying this are not on queue at all.....
* Over 1bn spent so far .....

FBNH: 24.60

UBA: 24.35.......


ZENITH: 36.90.....36.95....

Ose e ymyc56

megawealth01:
There seems to be renewed interest in bank stocks?

The aggression in ACCESS no be small thing......
They cleared up to 23.........some offers showed face and they're busy clearing them again.... .......more offers @23.....

They way they're picking 500, 1m offers is like they're picking Kobo Kobo stocks....

ZENITH also.......

TRANSCORP: Some activities here....

F.u.g.a.z....generally...

This has been going on since yesterday

yMcy56:
ACCESS: Sighted @22.50! ....22.75.....23!!
Even with offers more than bids as at now......
* The forces buying this are not on queue at all.....
* Over 1bn spent so far .....

FBNH: 24.60

UBA: 24.35.......

ZENITH: 36.90.....36.95......37!

FIDELITY: 9.50!

yMcy56:
The aggression in ACCESS no be small thing......
The cleared up to 23.........some offers showed face and they're busy clearing them again....

They way they're picking 500, 1m offers is like they're picking Kobo Kobo Kobo stocks....

ZENITH also.......

F.u.g.a.z....generally...

Interesting days might be ahead sha...
Make my unity shake body na

Please this is what I received,NEFT/GTB/CRL CONSOLIDATED DIVIDEND ACCOUNT/SDARADEL PAYMENT 19 OF 3 is this mistake because I already received sometimes in August -Sept 2023.

Kindly clarify.

Thank you

Meerahbel:
Please this is what I received,NEFT/GTB/CRL CONSOLIDATED DIVIDEND ACCOUNT/SDARADEL PAYMENT 19 OF 3 is this mistake because I already received sometimes in August -Sept 2023.

Kindly clarify.

Thank you

I don't understand!
you collect money and you want to verify...
Abeg sent it to me make I checked something

United you stand

megawealth01:
Interesting days might be ahead sha...
Make my unity shake body na

...

Mfunkynation:
I don't understand!
you collect money and you want to verify...
Abeg sent it to me make I checked something

KarlTom:
Every where is calm.
Most shares 0 bid, 0 offer for few minutes

Massive clearance in ACCESS

Market closes at 2.30
* Buying and selling stops @2.25pm
* The remaining 5mins (2.25 to 2.30) is for Market Makers

* So also for opening:
Market opens @10
* Premarket starts at 9.30am to 9.55am
* Remaining 5mins (9.55 to 10) is for Market Makers

Btw, something tells me KarlTom is also Megawealth01

FBNH @24.95......25 so close...
UBA: 24.80....
ACCESS: 22.80/22.90..

Btw: What's the matter with FCMB? What/Who are those preventing the price from moving up?

* Everything na turn by turn.......other stocks just dey watch f.u.g.a.z, Fidelity, Sterling movie........except UCAP and 1 or 2 other stocks.
When others are ready, banks too go do Siddon look. Lol.

* Elephant: @25
* UBA @25


** DANGSUGAR in market with some volume again !

yMcy56:
FBNH @24.95......25 so close...
UBA: 24.80....
ACCESS: 22.80/22.90..

Btw: What's the matter with FCMB? What/Who are those preventing the price from moving up?

* Everything na turn by turn.......other stocks just dey watch f.u.g.a.z, Fidelity, Sterling movie........except UCAP and 1 or 2 other stocks.
When others are ready, banks too go do Siddon look. Lol.

for the past days, someone has been entering the market and dashing us Jaiz bank at 1.50. even when it's trading at 1.60, you queue at 1.50 and the saviour comes and goes. maybe when he is tired, Jaiz will start looking up.
I hope i took a good decision to mop all i have at 1.50 sha?

yMcy56:
Market closes at 2.30
* Buying and selling stops @2.25pm
* The remaining 5mins (2.25 to 2.30) is for Market Makers

* So also for opening:
Market opens @10
* Premarket starts at 9.30am to 9.55am
* Remaining 5mins (9.55 to 10) is for Market Makers

Btw, something tells me KarlTom is also Megawealth01

Something kwa?

unite4real:
for the past days, someone has been entering the market and dashing us Jaiz bank at 1.50. even when it's trading at 1.60, you queue at 1.50 and the saviour comes and goes. maybe when he is tired, Jaiz will start looking up.
I hope i took a good decision to mop all i have at 1.50 sha?

It seems one heavy weight is exiting (or cross dealing) and preventing the price from moving up, just like FCMB....
One can never know what these guys are up to sometimes.........it could be to keep the share price down to accumulate more or for whatever reasons best known to them

* Besides, JAIZ has a special situation which I don't know how the moneybag Alhajis are going to handle yet....... concerning how the recapitalization affects the bank and considering that it's an interest free bank...
*Also, the right issue might still be a factor keeping it low for now..

* One thing I Blvd is that they'll surely have their way around all these and the share price can't be kept low for ever...,...JAIZ is undervalued @CP. (1.50/1.60).

* Maybe the experts and TA gurus can help us out the more here.
* Above is just my opinion. There may be +ve twist at any time.

KarlTom:
Emoticons?
Gut feeling? .

Both.
As well as writing and posting pattern.

That's no news...

yMcy56:
Market closes at 2.30
* Buying and selling stops @2.25pm
* The remaining 5mins (2.25 to 2.30) is for Market Makers

* So also for opening:
Market opens @10
* Premarket starts at 9.30am to 9.55am
* Remaining 5mins (9.55 to 10) is for Market Makers

Emoticons?
Gut feeling?

yMcy56:
Btw, something tells me KarlTom is also Megawealth01