What is the benefit of breaking Nigeria up?
“Since 1914 the British Government has been trying to make Nigeria into one country, but the Nigerian people themselves are historically different in their backgrounds, in their religious beliefs and customs and do not show themselves any sign of willingness to unite… Nigerian unity is only a British intention for the country.” — Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, Lagos, 1948.
Let’s start from the top. Nigeria is not working. Not for me, not for you who is reading, not for anyone. Except of course, your definition of working is piling up cash from government patronage, and looking at it. The fact is that even those who are making all that pile of dosh still feel our daily pain each day. From the sound of power plants in their backyards, to more than the average visit to the motor-mechanic to have their shock absorbers fixed. From having to provide their own personal water supply, to having to provide their own personal security, Nigeria is an annoyance to everyone.

One problem that has been readily identified is that the country is just too big, and too concentrated in Abuja to run properly. This is true. It is also true that China, Canada, the United States, are bigger, and are making progress. It is also true that India, who started along the path to nationhood at a similar time as we did, is making progress in some form. However, this does not stop the arguments that we need to break Nigeria up.
Now a confession — I have, for the majority of my life, been almost implacably opposed to the idea of breaking Nigeria up. But ever since I joined a small geo-political research company two years ago now, the contradictions of the Nigerian state, and the sheer waste it engenders, which I am faced with everyday, have kind of elevated my thinking, and made me reconsider my position. Will the people who occupy the space that is currently Nigeria, be better served if we break the country up?
Maybe they will, but I still have my doubts. You see, human behaviour is rather constant given certain conditions, and the conditions within the Nigerian state, have been conducive for projecting the worst of human behaviours.

For the sake of convenience, let us consider what we now call the six geopolitical zones in the country.
The North-Central, popularly known as the Middle Belt, is made up of Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger and Plateau states. We could add Abuja, but we must remember that Abuja is federally run. The Middle Belt is dominated by “minority” ethnic groups who have various allegiances. This has exacerbated a burning conflict in the region that is at once ethnic and religious. The region has never, since independence, been able to articulate a singular agenda. More importantly because of age-old animosities, there are so many conflicts in the region that keep the people there unable to fight against the Hausa-Fulani-Islamic influence that is coming in from the North of their borders. Should this region become a country, it will be just a matter of time it will fall like a plum, and become a vassal to the North.
The North-East is made up of Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba and Yobe. This region has borne the brunt of the Boko Haram insurgency over the last decade, and there is no sign whatsoever that this will go away soon. The region was also the base of Maitatsine. Historically, the northern reaches of this region, dominated by the Kanuri, was centred around the Lake Chad economy. The Kanuri are spread around Nigeria, Chad, Niger and Cameroon, and the creation of these states has not really divided them. They look more “inward” amongst themselves, than “outward” towards any of these countries. This will be a problem for a “North-East country”, not to talk of the extremism of groups like Maitatsine, Boko Haram, or whoever else comes along. This means that this country will be inherently unstable, and will be a problem for the countries that border it, namely the Middle-Belt country, the North-West country, Cameroon, Niger, and Chad.
The North-West is made up of Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara. The first problem this new country will have is that while it will immediately have the largest population (disputed) of the six new countries, and a huge proportion of this population, will be uneducated, and possibly uneducatable. The region will however, based on current stats, be the most self-sufficient in food production. However, it will suffer in terms of trade, as a lack of access to the sea will hamper it. To its North, will be very poor neighbours, Dosso, Maradi and Tahoua; regions of Niger Republic, with which it has deep historical ties, and which happen to be the most densely populated parts of that, the poorest country in the world. This means that the movement of people between both will be almost unrestricted, and immediate, putting a strain on the new country. It will fail very quickly

The South-East is made up of Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo. Historically the homeland of the Igbo people, this was also the heartland of the secession attempt in the 1960s, and is the heartland of the current secessionist agitations. It is also the smallest region geographically, and the most densely populated. While its natives are aspirational and upwardly mobile, the country will run into trouble pretty quickly because it will be landlocked, and there will almost immediately be fierce competition for scarce resources. There is a reason why three centuries ago, lots of Igbo people began to abandon their farms, and produce great traders — the land simply could not cope. There is no reason to to believe that it will cope now. A drive from Onitsha to Awka, just in Anambra state will show this expanding soil deterioration. Then there will be the geopolitics of coping with expansion from the North, and hostility from the South…
The South-South is made up of Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo and Rivers. The first problem such a country will have, that more than any other region in the country, this region has had its environment completely devastated. By the very stuff, which keeps Nigeria going, in its current form. What this means is that should this region become a country on its own, feeding will become a problem, almost from the get go. Fun fact, they produce more fish in the North-West than in the South-South. Added to that, is that the region will have a very similar problem to what the Middle Belt has — no common cause. The only portion of this region I foresee making a headway, is the far eastern part made up of Cross River and Akwa Ibom states today. The others, will soon descend into anarchy brought about by the fact that the youth in that region have been so thoroughly devastated by a proliferation of arms, gangs, and turf wars for control of lucrative, if illegal oil trades. No, a country from the South-South, will be a problem to everyone.
The South-West is made up of Ekiti, Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Osun and Oyo. On the surface, this is will be the most stable and forward looking of all the new countries that will emerge. The current Nigerian economy is centred here (46% of Nigeria’s tax receipts come from Lagos alone), and there is a knock on effect from Lagos, which is beginning to lift Ogun up. But that is on the surface. In reality, we tend to forget that Lagos was federal capital for 87 years, and as a result, commanded the lion’s share of whatever development came the way of the various zones. This arrangement is still felt till today as Lagos is without doubt the centre of everything economic in Nigeria, despite Abuja’s pretensions to the contrary. Lagos, is also effectively Nigeria’s only port. This means that there is a large number of people from the other regions, in Lagos, who are both doing business, and living here. Heck, I live in Lagos too. Now, what if we scatter this country, and every man goes back to the region of his ancestors? The very thing that makes Lagos so dynamic, will be gone. And there will be a lot of catching up to do from the other states in the region. The other new countries, will begin to develop their own infrastructure to compete with Lagos, and a population of roughly 20 million (2006 census figures minus Lagos) will no longer be as attractive to trade, as a population of 180 million plus. This will give a new lease of life to Cotonou, Lome, Sekondi and Tema, all existing ports within six hours of Lagos, and all, even now, better organised.
So, these are some of the practical problems that the six new countries will face within themselves. What practical problem will they face amongst one another?
First, the fight for resources will continue. You think oil is the only thing worth fighting for?
Consider the large scale desertification that is happening to Nigeria’s north, in Niger. It will keep spreading, and that will push people down southwards. Into new countries.

These people need to survive, and they will fight to survive.
Consider that if this break happens, four of the six countries will be cut off from the ocean. Think about how dependent Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso, and Mali are on their neighbours. Think about the Central African Republic. Do you for one second think that the political and business elite in the North-West, North-East and North-Central will sit idly by and watch themselves effectively become another Niger Republic? Do you for one second think that even the normal South-Easterner on the street will want to be constrained within the limited space that 29,388 sq.km will afford him? A space which will give him a population density of 1,089 people per sq.km, which will immediately shoot his country up to being one of the world’s top thirty in terms of population density?
There are arguments for changing the structure that we currently run, and the singular, overreaching argument, is that it is not working. But breaking up the country? You only need to take a look at the map again. From a military standpoint, there’s only one region that will be easily defended: the North-Central. If we are mad enough to go the route of a break-up, and the inevitable war for resources/access to the sea that will follow, we will be caught up in a war without end. This war will affect not just us, but two huge regions — West, and Central Africa. When that happens, isolationist or not, the world will take notice, and will intervene. Then they will put us back together, because that is the reality that they know. We are not the Soviet Union, or Yugoslavia, who had prior body corporates, to return to. Not one of our regions existed as a country, prior to Lugard’s “mistake of 1914”.
So my question is — what is the point of fighting a war, or wars, if we will end up back where we started? Will we not be better off thinking through a solution to what is clearly a problem?


This article is not absolute. It is meant to provoke a discussion. So, let’s discuss like thinking men.

https://medium.com/@chxta/what-is-the-benefit-of-breaking-nigeria-up-b71c3cf14bd#.3ahn5jfau


Lalastica, let discuss. Move to front page

There would have been advantages to stay together in a country where there is zero tolerance for corruption, equity, peace and level playing field for everyone

I wouldn't advocate for the Nigerian nation to be broken if the constitution could be changed in totality with bias and sentiments, but you and I are aware that that could never happen thus I pray for the peaceful breakup because that will be the only thing that will rekindle the spirit of nationality amongst the people of niger area.

The Malthusian law of population growth has to be obeyed now.....

When the NW and Half the NE is cut off from the present North, Nigeria may be salvaged...
Southern Kaduna must be annexed to join the middle belt while NW of Niger state must also join OUR main Nigeria.....while the hardcore babaric HausaFulaniKanuris-Muslims in the rest NW n NE can have their Shariastan republic of Arewansu........

We Southern Nigeria can cope with the new Middle belt...
This will not require any WAR....to achieve..not at all..

This setting will free us from Fulani Jihadists and their evil accomplices from the Mali, Niger, Chad, Guinea and the other Arabs...who now operate freely across the country politically because their GrandPatron is the president.

Rubbish! Most countries in west Africa are more organized and have basic infrastructures than a big for nothing empty space called Nigeria.
Is it not a big shame that Rwanda who had a brutal civil war twenty two years ago has the best city in Africa.Botswana, south Africa and other countries in North Africa have decent infrastructures which can never be in this country in the next 100 hundred years.
Corruption exists in Nigeria because Nigeria is a fraudulent nation built on lies.she is being held together by a few group of persons who recycle power and wealth among themselves, their families and cronies leaving majority of the people in penury.A very useless country with no data base,poor work ethics and docile citizens.
Unbundle this useless country into pieces and let see whether the citizens in each respective country will tolerate the current nonsense going on in this country including the political class.
By the way,why the fuss about Lagos.what is being practiced in Lagos like other states in Nigeria is simply commercial capitalism which is strictly buy and selling and such economic model is rubbish and unsustainable.
Industrial capitalism is the way.
Go and check the best countries to live in the world,at least the best ten. Most have population less than 15 million.
Don't deceive yourself and look at the map of Nigeria,Nigeria will break down into five different countries soon.it is just matter of time.

Yes ,There is big advantage .

Because we ipob can never be force to be Nigeria .

We want stay out of savage and fraudlent entity known as Nigga area . Do you comprehend at all you Afonja and afonja bosses and their afonja lords .

Freedom to Ipob . Freedom to ss/se

Op is being smart by half. You attempted to address issue as serious and fundamental as secessesion and want to use the same artificially created "geopolitical zones" as basis for anaysis. You didnt only assume in your fraudulent write up that the so-called south east equates the entire Igboland but used that as the basis for declaring Igboland landlocked.

I know you banked your hope of defence on the ground that you used this on all ethnic groups, but its clear you used it specifically to be able to declare Igboland landlocked and to make an anti Biafran thread

so continue

Noneroone:
Op is being smart by half. You attempted to address issue as serious and fundamental as secessesion and want to use the same artificially created "geopolitical zones" as basis for anaysis. You didnt only assume in your fraudulent write up that the so-called south east is equates the entire Igboland but used that as the basis for declaring Igboland landlocked.

I know you banked your hope of defence on the ground that you used the this on all ethnic groups, but its clear you used it specifically to be able to declare Igboland landlocked and to make an anti Biafran thread

so continue

This is one of the most shallow and foolish analysis I have ever seen in nairaland and the Op is not making any sence at all.South eastern Nigeria is made up of 10 states and Delta making it 11 States. These will form the new and prosperous country!. All it's citizens will be unlike Nigeria, equal in all things pertaining to the new nation.

sogodihno:
These people need to survive, and they will fight to survive.
Consider that if this break happens, four of the six countries will be cut off from the ocean. Think about how dependent Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso, and Mali are on their neighbours. Think about the Central African Republic. Do you for one second think that the political and business elite in the North-West, North-East and North-Central will sit idly by and watch themselves effectively become another Niger Republic? Do you for one second think that even the normal South-Easterner on the street will want to be constrained within the limited space that 29,388 sq.km will afford him? A space which will give him a population density of 1,089 people per sq.km, which will immediately shoot his country up to being one of the world’s top thirty in terms of population density?
There are arguments for changing the structure that we currently run, and the singular, overreaching argument, is that it is not working. But breaking up the country? You only need to take a look at the map again. From a military standpoint, there’s only one region that will be easily defended: the North-Central. If we are mad enough to go the route of a break-up, and the inevitable war for resources/access to the sea that will follow, we will be caught up in a war without end. This war will affect not just us, but two huge regions — West, and Central Africa. When that happens, isolationist or not, the world will take notice, and will intervene. Then they will put us back together, because that is the reality that they know. We are not the Soviet Union, or Yugoslavia, who had prior body corporates, to return to. Not one of our regions existed as a country, prior to Lugard’s “mistake of 1914”.
So my question is — what is the point of fighting a war, or wars, if we will end up back where we started? Will we not be better off thinking through a solution to what is clearly a problem?


This article is not absolute. It is meant to provoke a discussion. So, let’s discuss like thinking men.

fulani cannot fight anybody

sogodihno:
What is the benefit of breaking Nigeria up?
“Since 1914 the British Government has been trying to make Nigeria into one country, but the Nigerian people themselves are historically different in their backgrounds, in their religious beliefs and customs and do not show themselves any sign of willingness to unite… Nigerian unity is only a British intention for the country.” — Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, Lagos, 1948.
Let’s start from the top. Nigeria is not working. Not for me, not for you who is reading, not for anyone. Except of course, your definition of working is piling up cash from government patronage, and looking at it. The fact is that even those who are making all that pile of dosh still feel our daily pain each day. From the sound of power plants in their backyards, to more than the average visit to the motor-mechanic to have their shock absorbers fixed. From having to provide their own personal water supply, to having to provide their own personal security, Nigeria is an annoyance to everyone.

who do you think would manage your life very well?
(a) someone from kebbi
(b) someone from oshogo
(c) me myself
(d) someone from ebonyi

The benefit is that there would be peace and tranquility.Nobody wl feel cheated again

sogodihno:
These people need to survive, and they will fight to survive.
Consider that if this break happens, four of the six countries will be cut off from the ocean. Think about how dependent Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso, and Mali are on their neighbours. Think about the Central African Republic. Do you for one second think that the political and business elite in the North-West, North-East and North-Central will sit idly by and watch themselves effectively become another Niger Republic? Do you for one second think that even the normal South-Easterner on the street will want to be constrained within the limited space that 29,388 sq.km will afford him? A space which will give him a population density of 1,089 people per sq.km, which will immediately shoot his country up to being one of the world’s top thirty in terms of population density?
There are arguments for changing the structure that we currently run, and the singular, overreaching argument, is that it is not working. But breaking up the country? You only need to take a look at the map again. From a military standpoint, there’s only one region that will be easily defended: the North-Central. If we are mad enough to go the route of a break-up, and the inevitable war for resources/access to the sea that will follow, we will be caught up in a war without end. This war will affect not just us, but two huge regions — West, and Central Africa. When that happens, isolationist or not, the world will take notice, and will intervene. Then they will put us back together, because that is the reality that they know. We are not the Soviet Union, or Yugoslavia, who had prior body corporates, to return to. Not one of our regions existed as a country, prior to Lugard’s “mistake of 1914”.
So my question is — what is the point of fighting a war, or wars, if we will end up back where we started? Will we not be better off thinking through a solution to what is clearly a problem?


This article is not absolute. It is meant to provoke a discussion. So, let’s discuss like thinking men.

Its unfortunate that most of your argument is borne out of fear of the unknown, to be frank you didn't make much sense.

If Nigeria splits along the current geopolitical groupings, I think its only the northeast that will have instability because of boko haram. But the truth is if boko haram overruns that region and establish an Islamic state there, it could be a good one for them too because we all know that 90% of northern Muslims in Nigeria share similar ideology to boko haram. The other norths are rich in agriculture and minerals, they would have no choice than to harness this for their own good.

The south will thrive because of education and trade. Its also a fallacy when people say igbos took to trade because of no land for agriculture. Southeast might have high population density but that does not mean it can't produce its own food, There are vast empty land in Anambra north, Enugu, Ebonyi. Furthermore Southeasterners can take to manufacturing which they still do well in, access to the sea is not a challenge because rails can be built to the south when good business relationships are established.

The Southwest will thrive no doubt even though these fear of splitting the country seems to be highest there.

I like a good argument with plenty of Logic. The OP has started with a conclusion that Nigeria is not working so it should break up .Why not say Nigeria is not working so it should assimilate Togo and Benin republic.

There are many good arguments to make for Nigeria to break up.Even if it is working that does not mean it should nor break up on the other hand breaking it up does not mean mean that the component parts would then work.

What needs to be shown is : Nigeria is not working BECAUSE it is together and if it breaks up it will work better.This is not an unreasonable position to take and then the appropriate argument put forward to back it up.

What I have a problem with is trying to pretend there is any logic or rationality to what is a purely visceral position and then an argument found or sought after taking a position.Sadly Logic is no longer taught in schools and our young people literally cannot think.
It is perfectly reasonable and human for us to break up even if it is working simply because WE DO NOT LIKE EACH OTHER even if we know that it will work LESS WELL thereafter.
The UK is working quite well and they still had a referendum.
That it is working is not reason enough to stay together and that it is not is not enough to break it up if it works even less well afterwards

My own take on it is this:what was there before Nigeria? .How evolved were those parts before Nigeria merged,? That is a major factor if there is peace.

I personally do not believe there will be peace and the component parts will end up fighting wars for territory,resources and dominance for decades and this will impoverish the region and destabilize neighbouring countries.It is naive to think a densely populated area like Nigeria will not break out in conflict. Most likely foreign powers will take charge in different countries and use the new states as proxies for their strategic battles, If Boko Haram cannot be pacified in 4 years imagine what that will look like.

This is not to mention any militant Islamism that may arise . As it stands we are fvcked whether we break up or not

yes, there are lots of benefits for a PEACEFUL break up of nigeria. For igbos, the ultimate benefit would be having our population back home.

Op, all you need to do is pray that a referendum be conducted in the eastern nigeria. That will answer your question because the wish of the people will prevail if they desire to remain as nigerians or not.

When this zoo finally breaks, it will be along tribal and slightly religious lines, not by geo-political zone or states. The possible senerio is this. The GREAT IGBO NATION. The igbos, starting from parts of Delta to ,Anambra, Enugu, ebony, Imo, Abia to part of rivers state will form one great nation.

While the none igbo speaking parts of delta and rivers join the likes of akwa ibom, cross river, bayalsa and parts of edo state to form NIGER-DELTA or whatever them call themselves.

Next is OODUANISTAN republic,( with a population of 65 to 70% muslim is probabily going to be parterned and tilted toward sharia state) which is un mistaken as 6 south west states, namely, Lagos, Ogun, Ondo,Oyo, Osun, Ekiti and probabily with some part of kwara and benue state.

And finally, the indivisible AREWANISTAN SHARIA republic. Made up of the 19 islamic northen states. Starting from Kwara to kogi to benue to abuja and down to borno state.

This remained the only pleusible and feasible way nigeria will split and there will be peace and tranquillity in the new nations. I believe in homogenuity, let people of like mind, cultur, ancestory and faith/ religion form a nation.

i av said dis tym wit out number...dis country can nt wrk..4 over 50 good years no sensible achievement every body want oil even wen its nt ur own..other places like port h., akwa ibom and calabar ar diniel sea port and force every body to import from lagos..only one word define it greedy...we can no mur hide d hatred between the south and the north..lets dn't decieve our selves dier is hatred...to b honest at list lets start from re-structuring the present patern favour only d north (and lagos)...

OP check your title and make correction

Op, you have your mind set in a particular direction; the Demerits of division of Nigeria and that betrays the title of your post. You also misunderstood division of Nigeria as it's been agitated lately.
Division of Nigeria,if it's to happen, will likely be discussed and decisions taken but if come with war, you can't predict the outcome and how Nigeria will be divided but going by your analysis based on the six geopolitical zones, there are more merits for division than demerits for some regions and more demerits than merits for others. The geopolitical zones in Southern Nigeria will be well favoured due to largely educated class and abundance of mineral resources.
The literacy level within these southern zones will,to great extent, bring peace and prosperity and be able to ward off unwholesome meddling in their internal affairs. Mind you also, there are rooms for construction and widening of Azumini river to provide an efficient seaport facility in the manner of Suez canal of Egypt. So,it will be wrong to assume that SE is landlocked

So the fear of the north all this while is that they would be cut off from accessing the sea if Nigeria is to break up. But they have been preaching to the East the danger of being cut off from the sea. I seeeeeee

The danger a man always point out to you when you are about to take a leap, is the danger he is afraid your leap will bring him face to face with.

Presidiotbuhari:
When this zoo finally breaks, it will be along tribal and slightly religious lines, not by geo-political zone or states. The possible senerio is this. The GREAT IGBO NATION. The igbos, starting from parts of Delta to ,Anambra, Enugu, ebony, Imo, Abia to part of rivers state will form one great nation.

While the none igbo speaking parts of delta and rivers join the likes of akwa ibom, cross river, bayalsa and parts of edo state to form NIGER-DELTA or whatever them call themselves.

Next is OODUANISTAN republic,( with a population of 65 to 70% muslim is probabily going to be parterned and tilted toward sharia state) which is un mistaken as 6 south west states, namely, Lagos, Ogun, Ondo,Oyo, Osun, Ekiti and probabily with some part of kwara and benue state.

And finally, the indivisible AREWANISTAN SHARIA republic. Made up of the 19 islamic northen states. Starting from Kwara to kogi to benue to abuja and down to borno state.

This remained the only pleusible and feasible way nigeria will split and there will be peace and tranquillity in the new nations. I believe in homogenuity, let people of like mind, cultur, ancestory and faith/ religion form a nation.

Yes, we the southwest muslims want islamic sharia country, or better still, form Arewa-Oodua islamic republic. Our christian population is insignificant and hence can not decide for the mejority muslim.

Presidiotbuhari:
When this zoo finally breaks, it will be along tribal and slightly religious lines, not by geo-political zone or states. The possible senerio is this. The GREAT IGBO NATION. The igbos, starting from parts of Delta to ,Anambra, Enugu, ebony, Imo, Abia to part of rivers state will form one great nation.

While the none igbo speaking parts of delta and rivers join the likes of akwa ibom, cross river, bayalsa and parts of edo state to form NIGER-DELTA or whatever them call themselves.

Next is OODUANISTAN republic,( with a population of 65 to 70% muslim is probabily going to be parterned and tilted toward sharia state) which is un mistaken as 6 south west states, namely, Lagos, Ogun, Ondo,Oyo, Osun, Ekiti and probabily with some part of kwara and benue state.

And finally, the indivisible AREWANISTAN SHARIA republic. Made up of the 19 islamic northen states. Starting from Kwara to kogi to benue to abuja and down to borno state.

This remained the only pleusible and feasible way nigeria will split and there will be peace and tranquillity in the new nations. I believe in homogenuity, let people of like mind, cultur, ancestory and faith/ religion form a nation.

There are only 13 Muslims majority states in the North.

Ganiyat72:


Yes, we the southwest muslims want islamic sharia country, or better still, form Arewa-Oodua islamic republic. [/b]Our christian population is insignificant[b] and hence can not decide for the mejority muslim.

[

That's fallacy

Honestly, I wonder the year the original writer of this piece (Chxta) will grow up to properly use his brain. Imagine this childish write-up from someone above 30+ years?

All the challenges he listed up above will be easily addressed with a simple firm bilateral relations with all neighbouring countries. And the most single benefit of the disintegration, is that to benefit from the bilateral agreements, all participating countries will ensure never to condole senseless killings thus eliminating the issue of these incessant senseless killings in the North and perpetrated by northern elements across Nigeria.

Nigeria has only one major problem: Lack of Patriotism.

Breaking up the country solves nothing. First of all there is no country in the world where everybody comes from the same tribe, speaks the same tongue and has exactly the same beliefs. when we are not robots! Secondly, even if you break up Nigeria, its still the same greedy selfish individuals that will be leading the individual parts. in essence, you change absolutely nothing.

The solution to all our problems is to learn to love our country. Learn to love our home. Everytime you dump trash on the road, in public places, speak ill of the country, engage in nefarious activities, corruption or other crime, you become part of the problem!