Analysis of Buhari chances in 2019 presidential election

To make a reasonable forecast for 2019 elections, we need to first of all look at 2015 election results and all possible geopolitical zones tendencies.

For 2019 election I have two cases.

CASE A : Buhari/Osibanjo APC contesting against PDP Northerner like Atiku/kwankwanso /Dakwambo /Markafi/Lamido with South east VP like Peter Obi

CASE B : Buhari/Osibanjo APC contesting against PDP Northerner like Atiku/kwankwanso /Dakwambo/Markafi/Lamido with South West VP like Fayose

Below is 2015 election results by zones.

2019 Presidential Election Case A :

Buhari/Osibanjo APC contesting against PDP Northerner like Atiku/kwankwanso /Dakwambo /Markafi/Lamido with South east VP like Peter Obi

a. South East: In 2015, APC got only 7% from South east. If PDP present a south east vice presidential candidates in 2019, I expect APC performance to drop to 5% while PDP gets 94% of the votes. In this prediction, I assume turnout in South East will increase by 20%. 2.7Million people voted in south east in 2015. With this configuration I expect 3.3Million voters in south east in 2019. I assume total failure of the APC rigging machinery in south east despite the fact that APC have 5 ministers in south east. I ignored the impact of Buhari sympathetic governors like Okorocha, Umahi and Obiano. I assume the clamour for Igbo presidency in 2023 has no impact. This is actually the worst case for Buhari in 2019 election with respect to south east. I expect the actual results to be better for Buhari. But for the sake of this prediction let assume the worst for Buhari.

b. South South: In 2015, APC got only 8% from South South. With PDP presenting a northern presidential candidate unlike in 2015 when the candidates was the son of the soil from south south, I expect APC performance to improve from 8% achieved in 2015 to a minimum of 20% in 2019. I expect APC to get more votes from South South due to rigging machinery of Amechi, Oshiomole and other South South APC politicians because they have security to rig. Senate re-run in rivers state where APC won two out of the three senate seats in rivers state is a prove of the powerful rigging machinery of Amechi . I expect the turn out to drop in South South by a minimum of 15%. Drop in turnout because the 2015 figures were inflated in Rivers state, Akwa Ibom states and Delta states. With INEC and police now in the hands of APC, the governors of those states can’t inflate the results for PDP easily. Should there be inflated figures, it will be in favour of Buhari. Also drop in turn out is because South South has less direct interest in the election. 5.2Million voted in south south in 2015. With this configuration I expect 4.1Million voters in south south in 2019. Base on the explanations above, 20% estimate for Buhari is the worst case. But for the sake of this prediction, let assume the worst for Buhari. It is important we know that in South South vote hardly counts. Rigging control South South election. If I factor in impact of rigging in South South presidential election historically, I will say Buhari will get 40% of South south votes. But in my forecast, I ignored the impact of massive rigging. So I gave Buhari just 20% of south south vote.

c. South West: In 2015, APC got 56% from South west. With PDP having a south east vice presidential candidates, I expect APC performance to increase to 60% because the VP in APC is from South west. Also, southern presidency in 2023 will be loud in south west because it will be almost clear and sure if buhari win 2nd term in this configuration, south west will most likely take over in 2023. The impact of honouring Abiola and making June12 democracy day will be strong if PDP chose a south east Vice president. I would have given APC more vote, but I assume South west won’t be as tribal or bitter like South east to give a block vote to a single party. I was also cautious in giving APC more votes because of some south westerners who will vote against Buhari because of current hardship in the country and Buhari poor leadership on herdsmen killings. I expect Obj to support the PDP candidates even if it is Atiku despite Obj clamour for third force. I also expect party like SDP, Sowore and other third forces to get some votes in South West. Hence I increase votes of other parties from 2% in 2015 to 5% in 2019 in south west.

d. North Central: In 2015, APC got 59% from North central. I expect APC to drop to 47% (12% drop) in 2019 thus losing north central. The main reason for the drop is Fulani herdsmen issue. But the loss won’t be very drastic because the PDP candidates is also likely to come from Hausa- Fulani ethnic group like Buhari. And also Buhari also have strong Muslims fans in North Central. I expect turnout in North central to be the same.

e. North East: In 2015, APC got 78% from North east. I expect APC to drop to 59% (17% drop) in 2019 because the PDP candidates will also be a Northerner like Buhari. I expect the turnout in North east to increase by 10% because of reduction in Boko haram activities.


f. North West: In 2015, APC got 84% from North West. I expect APC to drop to 70% (14% drop) in 2019 because the PDP candidates will also be a Northerner like Buhari. I expect the turnout in North west to increase by 10% because of much more inflated result from katsina, kaduna and kano in favour of Buhari because the governors in those states are strongly pro Buhari and they will have INEC and police to their side.

Overall Nationwide Results: Buhari will win with a very small margin of 0.5% or less than 200,000 votes despite losing South east, South South and North central. However with the slim margin of win, it is also possible for Buhari to lose under this configuration.

You can find the detail of forecasted 2019 results for Case A in the table below: Those written in red are regions Buhari is expected to lose

2019 Presidential Election Case B :

Buhari/Osibanjo APC contesting against PDP Northerner like Atiku/kwankwanso/Dakwambo /Markafi/Lamido with South West VP like Fayose

a. South East: With PDP choosing a South West VP, many South easterners will lose interest in the election. South east turn out will drop by at least 30% compared to 2015. The clamour for Igbo presidency in 2023 will gather stronger momentum. APC rigging machinery will have their way with little resistance. In this case I expect Buhari to get a minimum of 30% of the vote. To be optimistic, Buhari can actually win south east in this case.

b. South South: Similar to south east. APC will get a minimum of 30%


c. South West: APC will lose South west under this scenario in the worst case. Obj technical support for PDP despite claiming to be championing a third force will be more effective in this case. But the loss won’t be drastic. I expect APC to get a minimum of 48%

d. North Central: Same as Case A
e. North East: Same as Case A
f. North West: Same as Case A

Overall results: Buhari will win with a higher margin of about 6% or about 1800000 votes despite losing South East, South South, South West and North Central.

You can find the detail in the table below: Those written in red are regions Buhari is expected to lose.

My dear, let me tell you what you don't know about South East and south South i live and do business in both region, these two regions have a kind of chronic hatred for PMB and APC. There is no way PMB would get up to 8% vote in each of these two regions, even though PDP feed North/North candidates. As for SW with their son as VP the PDP will garner above 50% their, then NC PDP, will also go above 50% with what is happening to them in the hands of herdsmen. As for NE and NW I can't say because I have not been their before to know their voting pattern, but I believe with their son as a Presidential candidate from PDP vote will go to PDP as much.

They call me nwa Buhari is buhari son for projecting Buhari image here, if not that are not that violent like my northern brothers I could have killed by now for singing PMB praises

Linzo:
My dear, let me tell you what you don't know about South East and south South i live and do business in both region, these two regions have a kind of chronic hatred for PMB and APC. There is no way PMB would get up to 8% vote in each of these two regions, even though PDP feed North/North candidates. As for SW with their son as VP the PDP will garner above 50% their, then NC PDP, will also go above 50% with what is happening to them in the hands of herdsmen. As for NE and NW I can't say because I have not been their before to know their voting pattern, but I believe with their son as a Presidential candidate from PDP vote will go to PDP as much.

They call me nwa Buhari is buhari son for projecting Buhari image here, if not that are not that violent like my northern brothers I could have killed by now for singing PMB praises

I am from South South. And I live in south south. I am aware of the chronic hatred for Buhari in south south and south east. That hatred was there in 2015. That was why Buhari got 7% in south east and 8% in South South.


But in 2019 there is a little difference despite the hatred. The difference is the impact of APC ministers and politicians from these zones.
These people will influence the election results with money, police and INEC. APC didnt have that in 2015. Except you are expecting 100% free and fair election, you cannot completely ignore the impact of politicians with money, INEC and security (police , army etc)

In the case of PDP picking a south east VP, there is a chance of Buhari loosing. even if Buhari wins, it will be a small margin. I gave buhari only 5% south east votes in this case. I also increase the voting turnout in south east by 20%. I think i have factored in that chronic hatred already.

However should PDP pick a South west VP, to be optimistic it is either south east wont vote or the results go 50 50 in the south east

if you read everything I wrote you will see in what I call Case A, Buhari lost South east, lost South South and lost North central.

In the case B, Buhari lost four zones-South east, South South, South west and North central

OP let me talk about my state Rivers and region SS the highest rigger carries the day in SS no free and fair election in this region. Federal might always play a major role in party that wins here. Wike ultilised federal might in 2015 and gave PDP over 1.5million votes and winning all 3 senate seats, 13 House of Rep members and 32 State assembly members. But during rerun when the federal might left him and went into Amaechi we all saw the result. Take it to the bank and thank me later Wike will loose 2019 to APC his close allies knows that is why Wike accuses everybody of working for APC from INEC to Police to Army. APC guber ticket is most sort after in Rivers state because it's sure victory for who ever that emerges. Then Oshiomole in Edo another problem for PDP. These men in APC will produce the result that will shock PDP in 2019,Amaechi in Rivers, Oshiomole in Edo, Timipre Silva in Bayelsa, Umana Umana and NDDC MD in Akwa Ibom. Though APC might not win in Bayelsa,Cross River and Delta but will pull up to 40% votes But Rivers, Akwa Ibom and Edo state APC ti take over a sure belt. Mind you I am not a member of APC or PDP but I know what determines election in Rivers and SS region.

KenOne:
OP let me talk about my state Rivers and region SS the highest rigger carries the day in SS no free and fair election in this region. Federal might always play a major role in party that wins here. Wike ultilised federal might in 2015 and gave PDP over 1.5million votes and winning all 3 senate seats, 13 House of Rep members and 32 State assembly members. But during rerun when the federal might left him and went into Amaechi we all saw the result. Take it to the bank and thank me later Wike will loose 2019 to APC his close allies knows that is why Wike accuses everybody of working for APC from INEC to Police to Army. APC guber ticket is most sort after in Rivers state because it's sure victory for who ever that emerges. Then Oshiomole in Edo another problem for PDP. These men in APC will produce the result that will shock PDP in 2019,Amaechi in Rivers, Oshiomole in Edo, Timipre Silva in Bayelsa, Umana Umana and NDDC MD in Akwa Ibom. Though APC might not win in Bayelsa,Cross River and Delta but will pull up to 40% votes But Rivers, Akwa Ibom and Edo state APC ti take over a sure belt. Mind you I am not a member of APC or PDP but I know what determines election in Rivers and SS region.

You are right. I am from south south too. I actually stated all this in my write up.

In south south, I gave Buhari 20% vote in Case A and 30% votes in case B because i am deliberately being pessimistic.
I know with rigging buhari can win 50% votes in South South. And historically South South election has always be won by rigging.

Actually my forecast is likely the worst case scenario for Buhari. Despite my pessimistic approach, Buhari won the presidential election in the two cases I presented though with small margin

Linzo:
My dear, let me tell you what you don't know about South East and south South i live and do business in both region, these two regions have a kind of chronic hatred for PMB and APC. There is no way PMB would get up to 8% vote in each of these two regions, even though PDP feed North/North candidates. As for SW with their son as VP the PDP will garner above 50% their, then NC PDP, will also go above 50% with what is happening to them in the hands of herdsmen. As for NE and NW I can't say because I have not been their before to know their voting pattern, but I believe with their son as a Presidential candidate from PDP vote will go to PDP as much.

They call me nwa Buhari is buhari son for projecting Buhari image here, if not that are not that violent like my northern brothers I could have killed by now for singing PMB praises

My brother why didn't the hatred stop APC from winning 2 senate seats, some house of rep members and assembly members that they didn't win in 2015. We don't do election in SS and SE we rig elections with federal might that is why i am giving APC upper hand in Rivers. The slogan in APC in Rivers state is if Wike can give up to 1.5million votes to PDP in 2015 that APC can give more in 2019. But APC will rig wisely so that it will be too close to call 52% to 48% not to raise a serious out cry from international community so that the headline will be keenly contested election not like what PDP rigged in 2015 98% to 2% that made international community to condemn that election.

KenOne:


My brother why didn't the hatred stop APC from winning 2 senate seats, some house of rep members and assembly members that they didn't win in 2015. We don't do election in SS and SE we rig elections with federal might that is why i am giving APC upper hand in Rivers. The slogan in APC in Rivers state is if Wike can give up to 1.5million votes to PDP in 2015 that APC can give more in 2019. But APC will rig wisely so that it will be too close to call 52% to 48% not to raise a serious out cry from international community so that the headline will be keenly contested election not like what PDP rigged in 2015 98% to 2% that made international community to condemn that election.

I agree with u.

life2017:


You are right. I am from south south too. I actually stated all this in my write up.
I gave Buhari 20% vote in Case A and 30% votes in case B because i am deliberately being pessimistic.
I know with rigging buhari can win 50% votes inf South South. And in South South election has always be won by rigging.

Actually my forecast is likely the worst case scenario for Buhari. Despie my pessimistic approach,Buhari won in the two cases I presented though with small margin

We are in the same page on how election is being won and lost in Rivers state and SS region at large. You did a good analysis on 2019. I laugh at those that think APC will loose election in 2019 like they did in 2015. Buhari will win in North -West and North- East freely then win South-West and South-South slightly because of good results that will come out from Rivers, Edo, Akwa Ibom and couple with Cross River where Gov Ben Ayade has made it clear that his state will vote Buhari and get the required 25% or more in North-Central and South-East. Nasarawa and Niger in North-Central is even sure for him because of large population of Hausa-Fulani in these states.

Imagine the two in one human above... whining himself .

Apc 1.million vote..

Oga I fit bet with you .. if Apc gets a total of 15 percent in ss..


Will bet with you.. on any thing you choose..

Ibori is back
Udom is a wolf
Wike is terrifying
Serieke ain't joking ..

Na ameachi abi slyva ...

Make una go learn ss se political alignment.. no be talk matter.

Without Restructuring before 2019, APC will get a landslide. Do not say I didn't warn.

Herdsmen:
Imagine the two in one human above... whining himself .

Apc 1.million vote..

Oga I fit bet with you .. if Apc gets a total of 15 percent in ss..


Will bet with you.. on any thing you choose..

Ibori is back
Udom is a wolf
Wike is terrifying
Serieke ain't joking ..

Na ameachi abi slyva ...

Make una go learn ss se political alignment.. no be talk matter.

Serieke Dickson is pro Buhari

What I really don't understand about all this Nigeria ministers is how they operate in a sane society once you are made a minister you will cease to talk about political party but the country whom you serve but from Buhari to ministers is all about APC this APC that, does it mean that APC don't have spokesperson how come is Nigeria ministers and president are APC spokesperson. You don't play politics with state fund.

The people and their current state of living would decide.

What if just a turn of event PDP presents a North/West candidate? It defeats all you have all there.

Herdsmen:
Imagine the two in one human above... whining himself .

Apc 1.million vote..

Oga I fit bet with you .. if Apc gets a total of 15 percent in ss..


Will bet with you.. on any thing you choose..

Ibori is back
Udom is a wolf
Wike is terrifying
Serieke ain't joking ..

Na ameachi abi slyva ...

Make una go learn ss se political alignment.. no be talk matter.

Herdsmen:
Imagine the two in one human above... whining himself .

Apc 1.million vote..

Oga I fit bet with you .. if Apc gets a total of 15 percent in ss..


Will bet with you.. on any thing you choose..

Ibori is back
Udom is a wolf
Wike is terrifying
Serieke ain't joking ..

Na ameachi abi slyva ...

Make una go learn ss se political alignment.. no be talk matter.

I am sure if they had told you before rerun in Rivers state that APC will produce 2 senators, Some house of rep and assembly members you will say I will swear with my life that it can't happen.
2) If they had told you before Anambra election that PDP will come behind APC in Anambra election and APC pulling over 100,000 votes you will say I rather die than see it happen.
3) If they had told you that Timipre Silva almost defeated Dickson in Bayelsa election if INEC had not cancelled that Southern Ijaw Local Government votes that election held at night you would have said it's impossible.
4) If they had told you before 2015 election that Okorocha will win Imo you would have said if it happens I will go on exile.
5) If they had told you that 2 PDP governors Umahi of Ebonyi and Ben Ayade of Cross River openly declared that their states will vote Buhari massively you would have said it's propaganda. At least you can see the romance of these two governors with Buhari and how they praise his achievement in returns Buhari gives them national assignment, Umahi just concluded one and chaired the Fulani and farmers clash committee set up by Buhari. Leave sentiment alone and study how politics work in Rivers and SS at zone at large.

KenOne:


I am sure if they had told you before rerun in Rivers state that APC will produce 2 senators, Some house of rep and assembly members you will say I will swear with my life that it can't happen.
2) If they had told you before Anambra election that PDP will come behind APC in Anambra election and APC pulling over 100,000 votes you will say I rather die than see it happen.
3) If they had told you that Timipre Silva almost defeated Dickson in Bayelsa election if INEC had not cancelled that Southern Ijaw Local Government votes that election held at night you would have said it's impossible.
4) If they had told you before 2015 election that Okorocha will win Imo you would have said if it happens I will go on exile.
5) If they had told you that 2 PDP governors Umahi of Ebonyi and Ben Ayade of Cross River openly declared that their states will vote Buhari massively you would have said it's propaganda. At least you can see the romance of these two governors with Buhari and how they praise his achievement in returns Buhari gives them national assignment, Umahi just concluded one and chaired the Fulani and farmers clash committee set up by Buhari. Leave sentiment alone and study how politics work in Rivers and SS at zone at large.

true

orisa37:
Without Restructuring before 2019, APC will get a landslide.

How?

Can you please share a link of Ayade declaring votes for Buhari?

KenOne:


I am sure if they had told you before rerun in Rivers state that APC will produce 2 senators, Some house of rep and assembly members you will say I will swear with my life that it can't happen.
2) If they had told you before Anambra election that PDP will come behind APC in Anambra election and APC pulling over 100,000 votes you will say I rather die than see it happen.
3) If they had told you that Timipre Silva almost defeated Dickson in Bayelsa election if INEC had not cancelled that Southern Ijaw Local Government votes that election held at night you would have said it's impossible.
4) If they had told you before 2015 election that Okorocha will win Imo you would have said if it happens I will go on exile.
5) If they had told you that 2 PDP governors Umahi of Ebonyi and Ben Ayade of Cross River openly declared that their states will vote Buhari massively you would have said it's propaganda. At least you can see the romance of these two governors with Buhari and how they praise his achievement in returns Buhari gives them national assignment, Umahi just concluded one and chaired the Fulani and farmers clash committee set up by Buhari. Leave sentiment alone and study how politics work in Rivers and SS at zone at large.

life2017:

How?

.

Wait & see.

No matter who you choose, south east and south south will vote for PDP massively but south west will only vote based on what they believe to gain, that was y there was a shift btw 2011 and 2015 cause the south west felt marginalised during GEJ

balosunky:
No matter who you choose, south east and south south will vote for PDP massively but south west will only vote based on what they believe to gain, that was y there was a shift btw 2011 and 2015 cause the south west felt marginalised during GEJ

Yeah .

That is why I gave Buhari only 5% vote and PDP 94% vote in South east if PDP Vice President is from South east. And gave Buhari only 20% vote and PDP 79% vote in South South under the same Scenario.

But in the case of PDP choosing South West Candidate as Vice president I gave Buhari only 30% vote in south east and south south and I gave PDP about 68% of the vote.

So already assumed South East and South South are voting for PDP Massively.

enlady:
Can you please share a link of Ayade declaring votes for Buhari?

I think the nairalander base his opinion of Ayade on the statement Ayade made praising Buhari when he said Cross River State has benefitted the Most under Buhari than under other Past PDP govt. I think it is a logical evaluation or conclusion. But I ignored all this fact in my assumptions to predict the worst case scenario for Buhari. That is Buhari got only 20% votes in South South in Case A and only 30% votes in South South in Case B in my my analysis even though I think he may get more than that in reality.

The link of Ayade praising Buhari below:

https://www.dailytrust.com.ng/ayade-cross-river-benefits-more-under-buhari.html

This should be make a sticky post in the politics section.

I know that story. He praised PMB but I didn't see him advocating for votes.

life2017:


I think the nairalander base his opinion of Ayade on the statement Ayade made praising Buhari when he said Cross River State has benefitted the Most under Buhari than under other Past PDP govt. I think it is a logical evaluation or conclusion. But I ignored all this fact in my assumptions to predict the worst case scenario for Buhari. That is Buhari got only 20% votes in South South in Case A and only 30% votes in South South in Case B in my my analysis even though I think he may get more than that in reality.

The link of Ayade praising Buhari below:

https://www.dailytrust.com.ng/ayade-cross-river-benefits-more-under-buhari.html

This is a very sound analysis that should grace the front page.

Lalasticlala, OAM4J, Mynd44 for your information please. The other biased and half baked analysis was pushed. This is a very balanced one.

life2017:


I am from South South. And I live in south south. I am aware of the chronic hatred for Buhari in south south and south east. That hatred was there in 2015. That was why Buhari got 7% in south east and 8% in South South.


But in 2019 there is a little difference despite the hatred. The difference is the impact of APC ministers and politicians from these zones.
These people will influence the election results with money, police and INEC. APC didnt have that in 2015. Except you are expecting 100% free and fair election, you cannot completely ignore the impact of politicians with money, INEC and security (police , army etc)

In the case of PDP picking a south east VP, there is a chance of Buhari loosing. even if Buhari wins, it will be a small margin. I gave buhari only 5% south east votes in this case. I also increase the voting turnout in south east by 20%. I think i have factored in that chronic hatred already.

However should PDP pick a South west VP, to be optimistic it is either south east wont vote or the results go 50 50 in the south east

if you read everything I wrote you will see in what I call Case A, Buhari lost South east, lost South South and lost North central.

In the case B, Buhari lost four zones-South east, South South, South west and North central

Your analysis is very sound. I have been looking at it that the 2019 election may even result into a stalemate.

Nice analysis OP. Let me just chip in that things haven't changed in the south south. You can only rig where the emotion of the people allow you rig. It is wrong to compare a senatorial election or even governorship election to a presidential election. APC won two senatorial slots in Rivers but the question is how? One was won by Magnus Abe , a very popular figure who went against an unpopular PDP candidate. The other was won in the court , you know what could have happened in the court, maybe if the case had gotten to the supreme court the judgement could have been reversed. Even Magnus Abe may not be in APC by 2019 , you know his issues with Amaechi. It would be very hard for APC to get up to 10% in the south south. Jonathan had ministers from all the northern states and even had the likes of sule lamido but the rigging didnt work .

A lot of things qould happen between now and 2019 . PDP has gone through the fire of a convention. Apc wants to go through one now . The convention would further tear apc apart .


The Candidate of the PDP also matters . An Atiku would pull more votesfrom the northeast. Dankwanbo would pull more votes from the south. Kwankwanso would do some damage to buhari presidency in the north west . If those 3 come together in PDP with the likes of sule lamido and an emir sanusi who seems to want a change then the PDP chance in the north is actually bigger than expected

Marvin67:
Nice analysis OP. Let me just chip in that things haven't changed in the south south. You can only rig where the emotion of the people allow you rig. It is wrong to compare a senatorial election or even governorship election to a presidential election. APC won two senatorial slots in Rivers but the question is how? One was won by Magnus Abe , a very popular figure who went against an unpopular PDP candidate. The other was won in the court , you know what could have happened in the court, maybe if the case had gotten to the supreme court the judgement could have been reversed. Even Magnus Abe may not be in APC by 2019 , you know his issues with Amaechi. It would be very hard for APC to get up to 10% in the south south. Jonathan had ministers from all the northern states and even had the likes of sule lamido but the rigging didnt work .

A lot of things qould happen between now and 2019 . PDP has gone through the fire of a convention. Apc wants to go through one now . The convention would further tear apc apart .


The Candidate of the PDP also matters . An Atiku would pull more votesfrom the northeast. Dankwanbo would pull more votes from the south. Kwankwanso would do some damage to buhari presidency in the north west . If those 3 come together in PDP with the likes of sule lamido and an emir sanusi who seems to want a change then the PDP chance in the north is actually bigger than expected

You forgot to remember that senatorial election and presidential election will takes place at the same time base on current INEC timetable. You should also know the national assembly move to re order the election timetable may not likely succeed.

I don't think Magnus Abe is leaving APC. I read somewhere his camp is undergoing reconciliation with Amechi camp



So a vote for Magnus Abe in 2019 is as a vote for Buhari. People do block voting.

Rigging in presidential election is much easier. PDP Governors are more likely to save their money and effort on their own Governorship election than fighting for Atiku or whoever become PDP candidate.

I think giving Buhari only 20% votes in South South as I have done is very conservative. The police, INEC and Army will not be neutral.