₦airaland Forum

Mpeace:
Somebody just invoked all the gods of nairaland. If them act ehhh... persin go get banned for eternity.

Lol

Agbalowomeri:
NSE should introduce shorting
Meat everywhere

Been wondering why NSE has not introduced short selling. Market does not move only in one direction

Gm fellow INVESTORS AND TRADERS
UPDATING AND MOTIVATING YOU ON HOW TO REACT TO A BEAR
As I write this, a week or so ahead of you reading it, our local BOURSE is OFF MORE > 30% from the intra-day highs of mid-November 2017*.

That is officially a bear market, which is measured as a 20% drawdown from a high.

If you only started investing post the global market meltdown of 2008/09, welcome to your first bear market.

Don’t panic.

Falling markets never feel nice – your investments are losing value and you’re scared to put new money into the market in case things fall still lower.

And, if enough people feel this way, the buyers largely disappear and markets head even lower.

The reality is that market sell-offs are usually a common event.

But the last decade since the credit crisis has not been a normal market – fed by record-low interest rates (negative in some quarters) and massive quantitative easing (government buying of bonds to flood markets with cash).

Generally, a market will experience a 10% drawdown every couple of years, with a 10% to 15% drawdown every five years, and a +20% drawdown every five to ten years.

The really big hitters – as we saw in 2008/09, with global markets off between 40% and 50% – are rarer events, with only two in the last 100 years (the previous was 1929).

So, what we’re seeing play out in our local, and other global, markets is something that should be fairly common, albeit not for the last decade. Newbies to the market have never seen anything like it – and are panicking in some cases.

But, as I always say, while panicking is sometimes useful, it’s only really useful in a crisis – and a gentle bear market is not a crisis.

Important to note about this bear market is that it has not been driven by a crisis but a speculation on 4thcoming elections.

As such, it’s very unlikely that we’ll see another 40% sell-off.

Crises are mostly driven by out-of-control debt and, aside from governments around the world, we’re not seeing excessive corporate or personal debt levels.

Moreover, government debt is manageable as they control the printing presses. Not a great solution, but it works.

That said, I am also not saying the bear is over. We could go lower, or perhaps experience another sideways period of going nowhere slowly – as we’ve seen for much of the last few years.

I suspect the driver here is going to be US markets that are still in a bull phase, even after the recent sell-off.

If those markets continue to sell off, it would very likely result in us heading lower.

So, what’s an investor to do? The same as always: Continue with your local exchange-traded fund (ETF) purchases and buy the quality shares, making sure you leave the dogs alone, if you can, add foreign portfolios, quite easy in our time.
If you’re worried the quality may get still cheaper – and it may – you can place some cheeky bids below current levels. Our market is very cheap on almost any valuation metric, but, as always, I am pretty much fully invested.

I have some buy orders in on stocks I like and, as I have previously written, I am avoiding small- and mid-cap stocks.

So, sit back and take in your first bear market.

Remember the details so you can regale your grandkids one day when they ask about the great bear of 2018.

Except, they probably won’t be asking about the 2018 bear because on long-term charts we can hardly even see these bears.

Instead, you should relax and remember bear markets happen, but they also pass in time.

[quote author=Chibuking81 post=72600806]On this question, you will ask yourself, how many times in a months did people consume product produced with sugar, like beer, mineral, tea, etc, the level of consumption was affected greatly by recession.

For instance, I don't buy insurance companies stock, because It will be difficult to convince me and many others to insure, not because it's not good, but because of stories of those whom had negative experience with Nigeria insurance companies.

Sugar is still much under consumption!! Have u tot about d numerous company DAT uses sugar..pharma company's can not do without sugar.

... VIOLENTLY DEAL WITH ...

https://www.nairaland.com/3560501/holineness-righteousness-revival-daily-messages/18#72612676

You just have no business being here if you do not understand some TA, even if you are FA guru
My humble submission
Note: I have argued in the opposite before

The painful thing is that the fanatic FA guys are the loudest

Agbalowomeri:
You just have no business being here if you do not understand some TA, even if you are FA guru
My humble submission
Note: I have argued in the opposite before

The painful thing is that the fanatic FA guys are the loudest

Remember to add Vice versa

Agbalowomeri:
You just have no business being here if you do not understand some TA, even if you are FA guru
My humble submission
Note: I have argued in the opposite before

The painful thing is that the fanatic FA guys are the loudest

TA is for Traders, FA is for investors. This forum has both.

Mpeace:
TA is for Traders, FA is for investors. This forum has both.

Sorry I meant no business being in stock market. All I want to pass across is efficiency
And I have removed both words (traders and investors) from my dictionary; all I want is money, applying all knowledge Lol

OBAGADAFFI:
Remember to add Vice versa

In NSE, it's much easier to survive on TA alone. No be all of us fit go ask for the price of bag of semo for market (apologies to oga Wanaj). Some of us are plain lazy

Agbalowomeri:
You just have no business being here if you do not understand some TA, even if you are FA guru
My humble submission
Note: I have argued in the opposite before

The painful thing is that the fanatic FA guys are the loudest

Superiority complex !!!

Agbalowomeri:
In NSE, it's much easier to survive on TA alone. No be all of us fit go ask for the price of bag of semo for market (apologies to oga Wanaj). Some of us are plain lazy

Like those who ''survived'' Skye bank using TA?

pluto09:
Superiority complex !!!

That's the way you see, mind you I am more FA than TA

Agbalowomeri:
Sorry I meant no business being in stock market. All I want to pass across is efficiency

I think you should also limit it to NSE.
There are countries where you don't have political, economic and corporate governance issues, countries where you invest solely for dividends, countries where you invest longterm and come back to see your investment multiply in hundred folds despite global meltdowns and all what not.
Nigeria and NSE has a peculiar problem. Too many foreigners who would always leave at the slightest provocation or opportunity whether from within or outside.

Agbalowomeri:
In NSE, it's much easier to survive on TA alone. No be all of us fit go ask for the price of bag of semo for market (apologies to oga Wanaj). Some of us are plain lazy

TA can be deceptive when FA is very bad.

TA is simply traders behavior to a particular stock.

e.g Japul and Oando with bad FA are trading in volume

Even SKYE price went up days before, CBN withdraw their license

OBAGADAFFI:
TA can be deceptive when FA is very bad.

TA is simply traders behavior to a particular stock.

e.g Japul and Oando with bad FA are trading in volume

Even SKYE price went up days before, CBN withdraw their license

Well a superior argument; perhaps we can agree to add both but not be obstinate to jettison one

sky2891:
Like those who ''survived'' Skye bank using TA?

Thank you my broda.
Most of those who went into skye bank and drown with it, did so on TA basis. TA said enter, FA said don't enter that sinking ship.
I think a balance of TA and FA is necessary, and not forgetting Mr Sentiment.

Mpeace:
I think you should also limit it to NSE.
There are countries where you don't have political, economic and corporate governance issues, countries where you invest solely for dividends, countries where you invest longterm and come back to see your investment multiply in hundred folds despite global meltdowns and all what not.
Nigeria and NSE has a peculiar problem. Too many foreigners who would always leave at the slightest provocation or opportunity whether from within or outside.

Maybe we are only fed with the good stories from abroad

Mpeace:
Thank you my broda.
Most of those who went into skye bank and drown with it, did so on TA basis. TA said enter, FA said don't enter that sinking ship.
I think a balance of TA and FA is necessary, and not forgetting Mr Sentiment.

Yeah, a good summary

OBAGADAFFI:
TA can be deceptive when FA is very bad.

TA is simply traders behavior to a particular stock.

e.g Japul and Oando with bad FA are trading in volume

Even SKYE price went up days before, CBN withdraw their license

Alot of people here (Including me ) wished we followed the matrras gang since JAN. but life is a lesson .

Those who followed FA are even hoping to break even...while the matras gang comes once in a while to say E ku market ooh..

at list i know the circle of nse and what to do next.

As agba said he just wanna make money that all..same reason am here as well not ..TA..OR FA

Agbalowomeri:
Well a superior argument; perhaps we can agree to add both but not be obstinate to jettison one

Yes they are both very important.


TA Point and kill, you can make millions from a dying company if your readings is good.

FA gives you a solid picture of what you're buying.

Agbalowomeri:
You just have no business being here if you do not understand some TA, even if you are FA guru
My humble submission
Note: I have argued in the opposite before

The painful thing is that the fanatic FA guys are the loudest

FA simple tells you which one is good or which one is bad.

TA simply tells you when to act ( buy or sell or wait) depending on market behaviour.

Mpeace:
Thank you my broda.
Most of those who went into skye bank and drown with it, did so on TA basis. TA said enter, FA said don't enter that sinking ship.
I think a balance of TA and FA is necessary, and not forgetting Mr Sentiment.

Skye bank is a case study for me.

Some people here were loading Skye bank just two days before CBN hammer.

tritritri:
Alot of people here (Including me ) wished we followed the matrras gang since JAN. but life is a lesson .

Those who followed FA are even hoping to break even...while the matras gang comes once in a while to say E ku market ooh..

at list i know the circle of nse and what to do next.

As agba said he just wanna make money that all..same reason am here as well not ..TA..OR FA

Mostly true, but not all. Some companies on nse never lost what they gained in january. Some have even gone high eg CILeasing.
Even Aiico is selling at its january price.

sellydion:
FA simple tells you which one is good or which one is bad.

TA simply tells you when to act ( buy or sell or wait) depending on market behaviour.

Very apt!!!
But some of us carry the mantra 'no one can time the market'
But it's good to know when it is risky to siddon for inside there

Three Banks Fall Below 30% Liquidity Ratio Requirement—CBN
https://www.businesspost.ng/2018/11/02/three-banks-fall-below-30-liquidity-ratio-requirement-cbn/

tritritri:
Alot of people here (Including me ) wished we followed the matrras gang since JAN. but life is a lesson .

Those who followed FA are even hoping to break even...while the matras gang comes once in a while to say E ku market ooh..

at list i know the circle of nse and what to do next.

As agba said he just wanna make money that all..same reason am here as well not ..TA..OR FA

The major problem I can see is that there are too many people who claim to understand FA but their understanding is limited and defective.

With a good knowledge of FA, anyone can do well in stock market in any part of the world.

dipoolowoo:
Three Banks Fall Below 30% Liquidity Ratio Requirement—CBN
https://www.businesspost.ng/2018/11/02/three-banks-fall-below-30-liquidity-ratio-requirement-cbn/

Make I guess:
1. Skye bank.
2. Diamond
3. Unity.

Mpeace:
Mostly true, but not all. Some companies on nse never lost what they gained in january. Some have even gone high eg CILeasing.
Even Aiico is selling at its january price.

No one wants to rely on outliers
Every the mighty GTB is heavily battered

pluto09:
The major problem I can see is that there are too many people who claim to understand FA but their understanding is limited and defective.

With a good knowledge of FA, anyone can do well in stock market in any part of the world.

Agreed! But the same person will do much better with a little TA flavour

Let me come and be going before Yariya arrives