₦airaland Forum

NothingDoMe:
Passingshot remember we have a wager on the elections.

Meanwhile I don't see why Buhari is bothered about the CJN if he has been assured of a landslide victory. Even your analysis confirms it. By your analysis there's nothing the CJN can do about it. Buhari will still win.

My point is that trying to replace him quickly doesn't speak well of his confidence in winning the upcoming elections.

PassingShot:
It’s you guys linking Onnoghen’s case to election. The question is, should he be left to trample on the constitution? Has he accepted he “forgot” to declare those accounts or not?

PassingShot:
It’s you guys linking Onnoghen’s case to election. The question is, should he be left to trample on the constitution? Has he accepted he “forgot” to declare those accounts or not?

NothingDoMe:
Yeah he did. However he should face the tribunal before the FG declares him guilty. Then another will be recommended by the National Judicial Council, nominated by the President, and confirmed by the Senate. This takes a little time. Buhari should relax or is he in a hurry?

EngrSirwhite:
How about Governor Ganduje that was caught red-handed collecting bribe what has your so called Mr integrity whom you guys claim to be fighting corruption done about it instead he rushed to prosecute CJN. Let us be truthful to ourselves for once.

PassingShot:
If you yhad a semblance of functioning brain, you’d realize that a sitting governor enjoys immunity which was accorded to one of your lords and savior Fayose.

EngrSirwhite:
Immunity my foot. what happened to immunity when his accounts were frozen? or doesn't immunity also cover his account. Most people will leave there brains at home and come out with empty skull. It's not a crime you use your brain for once.

PassingShot:
South South Zone
This is a zone which many APC supporters and neutral political watchers believe APC has made a big in-road into, to the extent that many are predicting a win for PMB in Akwa-Ibom and a very good showing in Rivers and Delta. I personally see PMB winning Edo; reason being that it's the home state of APC's Chairman; APC won there in 2016 governorship election (a recession time); and APC did very well there in 2015 election despite intimidation by the military of PDP then.

Because of political alignment which saw Akpabio decamp to APC with his huge followership, APC can actually win Akwa Ibom but I have tempered my expectation with caution by predicting only 40% of the votes there for APC. With Akpabio in Akwa Ibom, Great Ogboru and Ayiri Emami in Delta, Rotimi Amechi, Tonye Cole and Nsima Ekere and other political heavy weigths on the side of APC in Akwa Ibom, it's only logical to expect APC score nothing less than 30% of the votes in this region; especially with almost zero chance of "writing result under special condition" in 2019.

Verdict - PDP to win the zone with no more than 65% of the total votes cast here.


South West Zone
Face the fact, if there is any region in Nigeria which doesn't largely vote based on religion and ethnicity, it is the SW zone of the country. If this wasn't true, GEJ/PDP would not have gotten 43% of the votes there with just about 587,000 vote difference in 2015, despite APC having Osinbajo on the ticket. But with major infrastructural projects (road, rail, power project) and N-Power plus Trader/Market Moni going on in the SW region; coupled with the facts that there is no shortage of political heavyweights from the region in APC; plus the facts that the region's Obas largely support PMB's 2nd term, PDP will have performed well to match their 2015 outing in SW. VP Osinbajo is from the zone (Ogun state) and APC recently won in Ekiti and Osun as well. Irrespective of what anyone might think, it's highly unthinkable for SW to abandon Osinbajo for a promise of SGF position in a PDP government. Forget that Obasanjo and Afenifere are supporting Atiku, these elements are only revered outside the SW.

It's important to point out that the performance of PDP in Osun was not really taken into consideration for the fact that electorate in that election, electorate wanted to punish APC/Aregbesola for not paying workers salaries for many months (same we saw in Ekiti as well). I personally know people who are APC but voted for Adeleke because of the salary issue. So, I do not see PDP doing as well as they did in that governorship election of 2018. Notwithstanding, I have largely left the prediction to about the same outcome of 2015 with just a flip of Ekiti to APC since the party won the governorship election there as recent as three months ago.

Verdict - APC wins SW by about 60% of total votes cast.

PassingShot:
South South Zone
This is a zone which many APC supporters and neutral political watchers believe APC has made a big in-road into, to the extent that many are predicting a win for PMB in Akwa-Ibom and a very good showing in Rivers and Delta. I personally see PMB winning Edo; reason being that it's the home state of APC's Chairman; APC won there in 2016 governorship election (a recession time); and APC did very well there in 2015 election despite intimidation by the military of PDP then.

Because of political alignment which saw Akpabio decamp to APC with his huge followership, APC can actually win Akwa Ibom but I have tempered my expectation with caution by predicting only 40% of the votes there for APC. With Akpabio in Akwa Ibom, Great Ogboru and Ayiri Emami in Delta, Rotimi Amechi, Tonye Cole and Nsima Ekere and other political heavy weigths on the side of APC in Akwa Ibom, it's only logical to expect APC score nothing less than 30% of the votes in this region; especially with almost zero chance of "writing result under special condition" in 2019.

Verdict - PDP to win the zone with no more than 65% of the total votes cast here.


South West Zone
Face the fact, if there is any region in Nigeria which doesn't largely vote based on religion and ethnicity, it is the SW zone of the country. If this wasn't true, GEJ/PDP would not have gotten 43% of the votes there with just about 587,000 vote difference in 2015, despite APC having Osinbajo on the ticket. But with major infrastructural projects (road, rail, power project) and N-Power plus Trader/Market Moni going on in the SW region; coupled with the facts that there is no shortage of political heavyweights from the region in APC; plus the facts that the region's Obas largely support PMB's 2nd term, PDP will have performed well to match their 2015 outing in SW. VP Osinbajo is from the zone (Ogun state) and APC recently won in Ekiti and Osun as well. Irrespective of what anyone might think, it's highly unthinkable for SW to abandon Osinbajo for a promise of SGF position in a PDP government. Forget that Obasanjo and Afenifere are supporting Atiku, these elements are only revered outside the SW.

It's important to point out that the performance of PDP in Osun was not really taken into consideration for the fact that electorate in that election, electorate wanted to punish APC/Aregbesola for not paying workers salaries for many months (same we saw in Ekiti as well). I personally know people who are APC but voted for Adeleke because of the salary issue. So, I do not see PDP doing as well as they did in that governorship election of 2018. Notwithstanding, I have largely left the prediction to about the same outcome of 2015 with just a flip of Ekiti to APC since the party won the governorship election there as recent as three months ago.

Verdict - APC wins SW by about 60% of total votes cast.

KingOfAllIgbos:


[s]All the major Northern chieftains have deserted Atiku.

Atiku foolishly choose a flattie instead of Yoruba as VP = NO Yoruba mass vote

He chose an Igbo who doesn't have unanimous support of his people.... Only a few Igbos still campaign for him.

Seems the guy set himself up for failure. Beginning to suspect he's a plant by Buhari because he's made such terrible decisions[/s]

PassingShot:
[s]
South South Zone
This is a zone which many APC supporters and neutral political watchers believe APC has made a big in-road into, to the extent that many are predicting a win for PMB in Akwa-Ibom and a very good showing in Rivers and Delta. I personally see PMB winning Edo; reason being that it's the home state of APC's Chairman; APC won there in 2016 governorship election (a recession time); and APC did very well there in 2015 election despite intimidation by the military of PDP then.

Because of political alignment which saw Akpabio decamp to APC with his huge followership, APC can actually win Akwa Ibom but I have tempered my expectation with caution by predicting only 40% of the votes there for APC. With Akpabio in Akwa Ibom, Great Ogboru and Ayiri Emami in Delta, Rotimi Amechi, Tonye Cole and Nsima Ekere and other political heavy weigths on the side of APC in Akwa Ibom, it's only logical to expect APC score nothing less than 30% of the votes in this region; especially with almost zero chance of "writing result under special condition" in 2019.

Verdict - PDP to win the zone with no more than 65% of the total votes cast here.


South West Zone
Face the fact, if there is any region in Nigeria which doesn't largely vote based on religion and ethnicity, it is the SW zone of the country. If this wasn't true, GEJ/PDP would not have gotten 43% of the votes there with just about 587,000 vote difference in 2015, despite APC having Osinbajo on the ticket. But with major infrastructural projects (road, rail, power project) and N-Power plus Trader/Market Moni going on in the SW region; coupled with the facts that there is no shortage of political heavyweights from the region in APC; plus the facts that the region's Obas largely support PMB's 2nd term, PDP will have performed well to match their 2015 outing in SW. VP Osinbajo is from the zone (Ogun state) and APC recently won in Ekiti and Osun as well. Irrespective of what anyone might think, it's highly unthinkable for SW to abandon Osinbajo for a promise of SGF position in a PDP government. Forget that Obasanjo and Afenifere are supporting Atiku, these elements are only revered outside the SW.

It's important to point out that the performance of PDP in Osun was not really taken into consideration for the fact that electorate in that election, electorate wanted to punish APC/Aregbesola for not paying workers salaries for many months (same we saw in Ekiti as well). I personally know people who are APC but voted for Adeleke because of the salary issue. So, I do not see PDP doing as well as they did in that governorship election of 2018. Notwithstanding, I have largely left the prediction to about the same outcome of 2015 with just a flip of Ekiti to APC since the party won the governorship election there as recent as three months ago.

Verdict - APC wins SW by about 60% of total votes cast.
[/s]

PassingShot:
[s]
North West Zone
This is a very straight-forward prediction to make, except anyone wants to deceive himself/herself. PMB is from Katsina and his second home is Kaduna where he has a house. Buhari, even in the days of PDP writing results, has always done very well in Kano, Katsina, Sokoto, Zamfara, Jigawa and even Kebbi. And it will take a major political catastrophe for PDP to change this trend in 2019.

Honestly, it's out of curiosity to see the possibility of Atiku winning the election I gave APC/PMB only 65% win percentage here, otherwise there is no any major political development to warrant such generosity. Look at the win % of PMB in NW in 2015 and you'll see the average of almost 84%. Agreed Atiku is also from the north but he has no political clout of PMB there. In fact, if PMB withdraws from the race and raises any other person's hands to be president, that person will defeat Atiku in the NE and NW. Such is his cult-like following in those two regions. Call it whatever you like, it's not a problem but expect PMB/APC to coast home to a landslide in the NW.

Verdict is APC to score at least 65% in this region.

South East Zone
This is the zone of the VP candidate of PDP, Peter Obi. It has always been a stronghold of PDP for some inexplainable reasons and we should not expect this to change in 2019 presidential election. The only thing that has changed this time around is the lukewarm attitude of the SE governors toward Atiku's presidency. We also have an interesting situation in Ebonyi and Anambra where the governors openly identify with PMB rather than Atiku. Imo has a sitting APC governor in Okorocha but I do not think this will count for much. The win percentage for PDP in 2015 in this zone was 93% average but I do not see such repeating itself with INEC's resolve not to allow the use of incident form which was largely used in the SE and SS zones in 2015. Another possibility that could work against PDP in the SE is IPOB's stance on the election. Should Nnamdi Kanu insist that his followers should stay at home on the election day, expect Atiku's votes to be seriously diminished here.

Notwithstanding, I have awarded 67% of the votes to PDP in the SE region with APC's best showing predicted to happen in Ebonyi, Abia and Anambra at 30%. Feel free to dispute this prediction and I won't have much issue with it.

[/s]

PassingShot:
North West Zone
This is a very straight-forward prediction to make, except anyone wants to deceive himself/herself. PMB is from Katsina and his second home is Kaduna where he has a house. Buhari, even in the days of PDP writing results, has always done very well in Kano, Katsina, Sokoto, Zamfara, Jigawa and even Kebbi. And it will take a major political catastrophe for PDP to change this trend in 2019.

Honestly, it's out of curiosity to see the possibility of Atiku winning the election I gave APC/PMB only 65% win percentage here, otherwise there is no any major political development to warrant such generosity. Look at the win % of PMB in NW in 2015 and you'll see the average of almost 84%. Agreed Atiku is also from the north but he has no political clout of PMB there. In fact, if PMB withdraws from the race and raises any other person's hands to be president, that person will defeat Atiku in the NE and NW. Such is his cult-like following in those two regions. Call it whatever you like, it's not a problem but expect PMB/APC to coast home to a landslide in the NW.

Verdict is APC to score at least 65% in this region.

South East Zone
This is the zone of the VP candidate of PDP, Peter Obi. It has always been a stronghold of PDP for some inexplainable reasons and we should not expect this to change in 2019 presidential election. The only thing that has changed this time around is the lukewarm attitude of the SE governors toward Atiku's presidency. We also have an interesting situation in Ebonyi and Anambra where the governors openly identify with PMB rather than Atiku. Imo has a sitting APC governor in Okorocha but I do not think this will count for much. The win percentage for PDP in 2015 in this zone was 93% average but I do not see such repeating itself with INEC's resolve not to allow the use of incident form which was largely used in the SE and SS zones in 2015. Another possibility that could work against PDP in the SE is IPOB's stance on the election. Should Nnamdi Kanu insist that his followers should stay at home on the election day, expect Atiku's votes to be seriously diminished here.

Notwithstanding, I have awarded 67% of the votes to PDP in the SE region with APC's best showing predicted to happen in Ebonyi, Abia and Anambra at 30%. Feel free to dispute this prediction and I won't have much issue with it.

riyanxeally:
north central hate buhari pass devil...in my state adamawa buhari won't win so north east n south west for apc yaay...leave middle belt there lands have been snatched by herdsmen n there blood spilled soo much

Grundig:
Furthermore, this idea that saraki will lose kwara is interesting. what happened in kwara is probably a slip up. A slip up that will not repeat itself.

Tinubu/APC lost valuable grounds in the last election. Oshodi/isolo went to PDP. The same Oshodi that has mc oluomo as the kingpin. PDP won about 5 seats in the state house of assembly. Although, all but one have now decamped to the APC. Ambode won by a slim margin of a little over 200k.

RightWayauto:
Thank u my good and sense people,as we are looking to what is really happen and what is going I believe PMB will enter president back and the man is a responsible man,he have a very good plan for this country but must of the people who are with him is our problem here

Bethel4Life:
that zombie wll not answer u again

UNCL3:
If PMB really had a good plan for Nigeria and her educational sector You would have not been so deficient in grammer
Like buhari like supporters.

UNCL3:
If PMB really had a good plan for Nigeria and her educational sector You would have not been so deficient in grammer
Like buhari like supporters.

senatordave1:
Op has done well.he made similar predictions in 2015 and it happened and he's also making another close to the polls.i think buhari will score over 70% in ne/nw while getting 30% in ss/se plus narrow wins in north central and west.atiku will also win adamawa narrowly.

PassingShot:
I also expect a better result for PMB in SS and SE. As you agreed, it's better to temper expectations from that side than be disappointed.

And the more the turnout, the worse it gets for Atiku.

CilicMarin:
You are too Generous with Figures accredited to Atiku..

Atiku Cannot get up to 8 Million Votes in this Election..

Screenshot this comment..

Which state will give Atiku 1 Million Votes? Which State will Atiku get up to 500000 votes in North West and North East?

You are probably using an incumbent Jonathan in 2015 to determine an opposition PDP without Money, State apparatus, and integrity defecient in 2019.

I am out of this thread with annoyance.

BuhariAdvocate:
sense fall on you. those moderators couldn't justify why they banning APC supporters on nairaland seun should look to this matter. Passingshot you deserve accolades you must be Yoruba or you have all your education in Yoruba land because only Yoruba invest in knowledge like you.But i would like to bring it to your notice there's no way PDP gonna win jos and Benue .forget the fulani herdsmen's issues everybody knows that PDP sponsored the herdsmen to discredit the ruling party.

KingOfAllIgbos:


All the major Northern chieftains have deserted Atiku.

Atiku foolishly choose a flattie instead of Yoruba as VP = NO Yoruba mass vote

He chose an Igbo who doesn't have unanimous support of his people.... Only a few Igbos still campaign for him.

Seems the guy set himself up for failure. Beginning to suspect he's a plant by Buhari because he's made such terrible decisions

Grundig:
Furthermore, this idea that saraki will lose kwara is interesting. what happened in kwara is probably a slip up. A slip up that will not repeat itself.

Tinubu/APC lost valuable grounds in the last election. Oshodi/isolo went to PDP. The same Oshodi that has mc oluomo as the kingpin. PDP won about 5 seats in the state house of assembly. Although, all but one have now decamped to the APC. Ambode won by a slim margin of a little over 200k.

Flattino:
Sharaap there!
You have no idea what happened in osun!
Omisore is now in APC . You will shock .
Just wait and see