GoodGovernance:


Where is your home?

How many voters are in support of ASUUs shenanigans and make it a deciding factor,when it is not a new phenomenon?

How realistic would it be for voters to expect the current government to fulfill all agreements that predated it, with ASUU,

seunmsg:


You are wrong. As it stands, PDP barely exist in Ondo state. APC is the party in power with really no opposition to contend with. Atiku stands absolutely no chance in the state.

In Osun, Buhari will win easily. Ijesha people are mostly APC. They voted against Aregbesola in the last election and not really for PDP. APC also won one of the Ife local governments in the last election. The other Ife lags voted for Omisore. Omisore is now fully in APC, Atiku stand no chance there. Overall, Buhari wins Osun.
Ekiti will be the easiest walkover for Buhari. PDP is finished in that state. Fayemi is currently doing well while Fayose and Olujimi are fighting dirty. Fayose is even campaigning against Olujimi as we speak. I really don’t see PDP getting up to 100k votes in the state.

Lagos will be close as always but APC will win as usual. In Ogun, PDP only exist in Ogun east. Even at that, APC will win the presidential election in Ogun east because of Osinbajo.i PDP won Ogun east the last time out because Buruji and Adebutu were on the ballot and the elections were held same day. With Buruji and Adebutu not on the ballot on February 16, it’s an easy win for APC.

EngrSirwhite:
Op made mention of certain parameters within which he arrived at his results of which performance was one of them. But then again, I tried very hard to see at least the achievements recorded by the APC administration in the states where APC is expected to win yet he could not mention one. Nigeria have grown beyond this stage. People are getting wiser every day. Your analysis are based on speculations, sentiments, political affiliation and ethnicity.
If only the current administration can conduct a free and fair election of which they lack the capacity, many people will be shocked at the outcome of the election results. Take a leaf from what happened in Ekiti, Osun etc where APC used Federal might to rig the election. Also the appointment of Amina and the issue the current CJN is facing, you will agree with me that all is geared towards riging the election.

riyanxeally:
north central hate buhari pass devil...in my state adamawa buhari won't win so north east n south west for apc yaay...leave middle belt there lands have been snatched by herdsmen n there blood spilled soo much

dokyOloye:
Zombie, jazz away!!!

EngrSirwhite:
Op made mention of certain parameters within which he arrived at his results of which performance was one of them. But then again, I tried very hard to see at least the achievements recorded by the APC administration in the states where APC is expected to win yet he could not mention one. Nigeria have grown beyond this stage. People are getting wiser every day. Your analysis are based on speculations, sentiments, political affiliation and ethnicity.
If only the current administration can conduct a free and fair election of which they lack the capacity, many people will be shocked at the outcome of the election results. Take a leaf from what happened in Ekiti, Osun etc where APC used Federal might to rig the election. Also the appointment of Amina and the issue the current CJN is facing, you will agree with me that all is geared towards riging the election.

openmine:

First,i only gave an opinion about the validity of the OP to make such stats and predictions cos it won't be credible based on his obvious affiliation!
Whether OP was generous with his stats or not doesn't take away the fact that he wont make a fair analysis!
Please next time try to comprehend a comment before hurriedly and hastily replying!

Jhoanner:


You see. That's where you miss the point. You guys are so blind by your bias that you would rather die than think/see. There was no where in my statement I mentioned being an Atiku apologist or symphatizer. Take note. My disapproval of one is not an endorsement of another.

PassingShot:
It's only a matter of five weeks to the general election of 2019 which is a straight contest between PMB of APC and Atiku of PDP. In 2015, I did this thread and was successful to a very high degree (more than 90% success, you may want to read it here https://www.nairaland.com/2059493/2015-presidential-election-more-objective).

In this year's prediction and analysis, I have considered political developments that we have witnessed till this moment in arriving at my prediction for each state. Notwithstanding, anyone who feels he/she has better information to change the outlook is free to say so and we will see what impact such can have on the overall result.

The prediction/projection is based on some assumptions and calculations stated below:


1. I have considered each party's strength and performance of 2015 general election in predicting their 2019 performance. I have actually put up the result of 2015 in this analysis.

2. Average voters turnout in 2015 was about 43% throughout the country. Each state's voters turnout for 2019 has been projected in line with that of 2015 except in cases where the turnout was lower than 43% national average that I have used the national average figure (43%).

3. 5% of the projected total votes have been allocated to other candidates including Sowore, Moghalu, Oby Ezekwesili, Durotoye, Olawepo Hashim and co. I don't think they will get more than that combined.

4. No party is projected to score anything close to 90% or 95% in any state as we witnessed in 2015. Most of the factors responsible for that anomaly are no longer in the mix in 2019.

5. Toss-up states aka battleground states have been given to the party I think will eventually win the state but with small margin (not more than 5% win margin).

Note: This prediction/analysis may be updated as we approach the election if there are major developments that can have significant effects on the election.

post=74720057:

It's was obvious GEJ will lose when all northerners ganged up against him, even PDP national chairman then, we are in 2019, Atiku is from north not south, in Northwest Kano, Kaduna, Zamfara even Kastina will surprise you guys, no doubt Buhari will win in northwest but not like 2015, Atiku will grab more than 30% votes from northwest, Atiku will win northeast with 53%, Atiku will win north central, Southeast, and southsouth, Buhari will win Southwest, but Atiku will grab more than 45% votes from west if the election is free and fair.

riyanxeally:
north central hate buhari pass devil...in my state adamawa buhari won't win so north east n south west for apc yaay...leave middle belt there lands have been snatched by herdsmen n there blood spilled soo much

sogodihno:


u know ur problem, anyone that disagre with u is Zombie, pls, get sense.

dokyOloye:
I don't like goats like you quoting me. 90% of your comments on nairaland are insults. For the last time,zombie jazz away.

openmine:
The predictions will always be partisan considering the op's affiliation!

I didn't even bother going through the analysis knowing fully well that such stats will surely favour the op's party!

It would have been reasonable if such analysis was done by a neutral personality!

openmine:
The predictions will always be partisan considering the op's affiliation!

I didn't even bother going through the analysis knowing fully well that such stats will surely favour the op's party!

It would have been reasonable if such analysis was done by a neutral personality!

EmperorShizzy:


Who takes the myopic Analysis of PassingShot, A monumental failure seriously,The same dunderhead who
said there will be 80% voters turnout in 2015 and we all know the total turnout is not even up to 50%,Imagine saying Sowore won't get more than 5% when the youths holds the largest percentage of voters and the youths are Sowore's target
Trashy Trash

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sogodihno:


I dare to say again, that this analysis is fair. Anyway, it's almost here, let's wait til the d date.