The same NC where ortom and ty danjuma are from abi?
The same NE wia atiku is from abi?
Look we know u have to earn ur BMC check but dont twist facts na
Cc immhotep sarkki velocity25 DaBullIT yarimo

This does not cause for insults on each other y’all should remember it is just his opinion concerning this election.... besides the election itself is just in 5 weeks time why don’t we all take a chill pill Abeg...

I agree with this. Everyone knows the battle ground in the next election will be the NC. This explains why the PDP is spending much of their time there.

The PDP won't campaign much in the SE and SS. The SW will as usual be spilt with the winner taking no more than 60% of the vote. It might be slimmer though as I expect the PDP to claw back on some of those numbers in Lagos.

I expect atiku and the PDP to spend time in the NC. Probably visit every town in the NC every week. much like what Donald Trump did to win Ohio and some other swing states.

PassingShot:


Note: This prediction/analysis may be updated as we approach the election if there are major developments that can have significant effects on the election.

When updating remember to put into consideration "Inconclusive polls", and invalid votes because this analysis didn't give room for that.

Atiku will not get up to 10m votes. Quote me.Atiku should celebrate if he gets close to 10m votes. I don’t support Buhari but that’s the fact

KingOfAllIgbos:


All the major Northern chieftains have deserted Atiku.

Atiku foolishly choose a flattie instead of Yoruba as VP = NO Yoruba mass vote

He chose an Igbo who doesn't have unanimous support of his people.... Only a few Igbos still campaign for him.

Seems the guy set himself up for failure. Beginning to suspect he's a plant by Buhari because he's made such terrible decisions

So had it been he choose a Yoruba man as VP then he will be seen as to have acted sensibly. Lol you people and tribalism sef.

PassingShot:
South South Zone
This is a zone which many APC supporters and neutral political watchers believe APC has made a big in-road into, to the extent that many are predicting a win for PMB in Akwa-Ibom and a very good showing in Rivers and Delta. I personally see PMB winning Edo; reason being that it's the home state of APC's Chairman; APC won there in 2016 governorship election (a recession time); and APC did very well there in 2015 election despite intimidation by the military of PDP then.

Because of political alignment which saw Akpabio decamp to APC with his huge followership, APC can actually win Akwa Ibom but I have tempered my expectation with caution by predicting only 40% of the votes there for APC. With Akpabio in Akwa Ibom, Great Ogboru and Ayiri Emami in Delta, Rotimi Amechi, Tonye Cole and Nsima Ekere and other political heavy weigths on the side of APC in Akwa Ibom, it's only logical to expect APC score nothing less than 30% of the votes in this region; especially with almost zero chance of "writing result under special condition" in 2019.

Verdict - PDP to win the zone with no more than 65% of the total votes cast here.


South West Zone
Face the fact, if there is any region in Nigeria which doesn't largely vote based on religion and ethnicity, it is the SW zone of the country. If this wasn't true, GEJ/PDP would not have gotten 43% of the votes there with just about 587,000 vote difference in 2015, despite APC having Osinbajo on the ticket. But with major infrastructural projects (road, rail, power project) and N-Power plus Trader/Market Moni going on in the SW region; coupled with the facts that there is no shortage of political heavyweights from the region in APC; plus the facts that the region's Obas largely support PMB's 2nd term, PDP will have performed well to match their 2015 outing in SW. VP Osinbajo is from the zone (Ogun state) and APC recently won in Ekiti and Osun as well. Irrespective of what anyone might think, it's highly unthinkable for SW to abandon Osinbajo for a promise of SGF position in a PDP government. Forget that Obasanjo and Afenifere are supporting Atiku, these elements are only revered outside the SW.

It's important to point out that the performance of PDP in Osun was not really taken into consideration for the fact that electorate in that election, electorate wanted to punish APC/Aregbesola for not paying workers salaries for many months (same we saw in Ekiti as well). I personally know people who are APC but voted for Adeleke because of the salary issue. So, I do not see PDP doing as well as they did in that governorship election of 2018. Notwithstanding, I have largely left the prediction to about the same outcome of 2015 with just a flip of Ekiti to APC since the party won the governorship election there as recent as three months ago.

Verdict - APC wins SW by about 60% of total votes cast.

Same way analysis of US presidential election by CNN and prominent election analysts predicted Hillary Clinton's (Democrats) victory. Last last what happened
Sometimes the ideal situation is not always the real situation.

udemzyudex:


Shut up if. You have nothing reasonable to post. I know it's your opinion but your opinion is stupid and you shouldn't made it known to the public.

This nonsense is common here, after saying rubbish, they will say P. S I'm not APC or PDP, I'm not igbo, I'm not Yoruba madam who cares?

Smiles. I pray Atiku wins but I am willing to bet he won't. You know why? Because of people like you.
You come online to exhibit such uncouthness and loutish behavior, yet you do nothing to change the status quo. Do you have your PVC, how many of your friends and family have you convinced to get theirs. Or do you plan on wishing Buhari away?

Go on and insult me some more. Changes nothing.

This is wrong

PassingShot:
It's only a matter of five weeks to the general election of 2019 which is a straight contest between PMB of APC and Atiku of PDP. In 2015, I did this thread and was successful to a very high degree (more than 90% success, you may want to read it here https://www.nairaland.com/2059493/2015-presidential-election-more-objective).

In this year's prediction and analysis, I have considered political developments that we have witnessed till this moment in arriving at my prediction for each state. Notwithstanding, anyone who feels he/she has better information to change the outlook is free to say so and we will see what impact such can have on the overall result.

The prediction/projection is based on some assumptions and calculations stated below:


1. I have considered each party's strength and performance of 2015 general election in predicting their 2019 performance. I have actually put up the result of 2015 in this analysis.

2. Average voters turnout in 2015 was about 43% throughout the country. Each state's voters turnout for 2019 has been projected in line with that of 2015 except in cases where the turnout was lower than 43% national average that I have used the national average figure (43%).

3. 5% of the projected total votes have been allocated to other candidates including Sowore, Moghalu, Oby Ezekwesili, Durotoye, Olawepo Hashim and co. I don't think they will get more than that combined.

4. No party is projected to score anything close to 90% or 95% in any state as we witnessed in 2015. Most of the factors responsible for that anomaly are no longer in the mix in 2019.

5. Toss-up states aka battleground states have been given to the party I think will eventually win the state but with small margin (not more than 5% win margin).

Note: This prediction/analysis may be updated as we approach the election if there are major developments that can have significant effects on the election.

Mumu prediction! Apc can never win in the NC, they can never get 1million votes in the SE or SS, except you and your village people will come from your village to vote on that day in these regions.
Day dreaming is allowed sha.

Excellent and unbiased predictions

Furthermore, this idea that saraki will lose kwara is interesting. what happened in kwara is probably a slip up. A slip up that will not repeat itself.

Tinubu/APC lost valuable grounds in the last election. Oshodi/isolo went to PDP. The same Oshodi that has mc oluomo as the kingpin. PDP won about 5 seats in the state house of assembly. Although, all but one have now decamped to the APC. Ambode won by a slim margin of a little over 200k.

PassingShot:

You can't even speak for your immediate household how much more "Nigerians"

We the citizens of Nigeria have rejected the lifeless one. I speak on behalf of the person you quoted, myself, my family and friends and my locality.

Joystark:



Smiles. I pray Atiku wins but I am willing to bet he won't. You know why? Because of people like you.
You come online to exhibit such uncouthness and loutish behavior, yet you do nothing to change the status quo. Do you have your PVC, how many of your friends and family have you convinced to get theirs. Or do you plan on wishing Buhari away?

Go on and insult me some more. Changes nothing.

Madam I have my PVC and most of my friends have theirs, I didn't vote for the dullard during the last election and nothing will make me vote for him.

You said I do nothing to change the status quo, so you just sit at the comfort of your room and assume rubbish, assume nonsense about me, well it's people like you that will whine online about the economy, then sit back and fold their arms.

my brother , let me tell you something. APC test run their popularity and acceptance with Osun guber election and were shock by it outcome but quickly manipulated it to change the narrative. what happen in Osun is how Nigerians Will react to the forthcoming election.

The Disgruntled politicians today in PDP contesting elections are the same people who helped rig PMB into power with incident forms. These politicians knows how to tame Buhari that's why PMB is running pillar to post to manipulate the process.

forget the staggered elections, they're manipulated to create a false narrative. Finally, Atiku is a fulani man, a core northerner in case you mistake him for a George Muoghalu from south east.

2019 election results will shock so many people.....

Majority of Nigerians are on the #NextLevel train. #SaiBaba #PMB2019

Everybody writing to support his pay masters but deep inside of them they know these people have collectively failed us. Nigerians when una go get sense

This prediction is near accurate. The best I have read since political analyst started predicting possible outcome of 2019 election. Atiku stands no chance next month.

globemoney:
Atiku will not get up to 10m votes. Quote me.Atiku should celebrate if he gets close to 10m votes. I don’t support Buhari but that’s the fact

You think say atiku na pushover? Atiku is going to be declared winner mark my words today

freshvine:
[s]my brother , let me tell you something. APC test run their popularity and acceptance with Osun guber election and were shock by it outcome but quickly manipulated it to change the narrative. what happen in Osun is how Nigerians Will react to the forthcoming election.

The Disgruntled politicians today in PDP contesting elections are the same people who helped rig PMB into power with incident forms. These politicians knows how to tame Buhari that's why PMB is running pillar to post to manipulate the process.

forget the staggered elections, they're manipulated to create a false narrative. Finally, Atiku is a fulani man, a core northerner in case you mistake him for a George Muoghalu from south east.[/s]

Sharaap there!
You have no idea what happened in osun!
Omisore is now in APC . You will shock .
Just wait and see

udemzyudex:


Madam I have my PVC and most of my friends have theirs, I didn't vote for the dullard during the last election and nothing will make me vote for him.

You said I do nothing to change the status quo, so you just sit at the comfort of your room and assume rubbish, assume nonsense about me, well it's people like you that will whine online about the economy, then sit back and fold their arms.

Okay, you win. Run along now.

Nonsense prediction
PDP will win NC, NE, SE, SS, and SW

PassingShot:
South South Zone
This is a zone which many APC supporters and neutral political watchers believe APC has made a big in-road into, to the extent that many are predicting a win for PMB in Akwa-Ibom and a very good showing in Rivers and Delta. I personally see PMB winning Edo; reason being that it's the home state of APC's Chairman; APC won there in 2016 governorship election (a recession time); and APC did very well there in 2015 election despite intimidation by the military of PDP then.

Because of political alignment which saw Akpabio decamp to APC with his huge followership, APC can actually win Akwa Ibom but I have tempered my expectation with caution by predicting only 40% of the votes there for APC. With Akpabio in Akwa Ibom, Great Ogboru and Ayiri Emami in Delta, Rotimi Amechi, Tonye Cole and Nsima Ekere and other political heavy weigths on the side of APC in Akwa Ibom, it's only logical to expect APC score nothing less than 30% of the votes in this region; especially with almost zero chance of "writing result under special condition" in 2019.

Verdict - PDP to win the zone with no more than 65% of the total votes cast here.


South West Zone
Face the fact, if there is any region in Nigeria which doesn't largely vote based on religion and ethnicity, it is the SW zone of the country. If this wasn't true, GEJ/PDP would not have gotten 43% of the votes there with just about 587,000 vote difference in 2015, despite APC having Osinbajo on the ticket. But with major infrastructural projects (road, rail, power project) and N-Power plus Trader/Market Moni going on in the SW region; coupled with the facts that there is no shortage of political heavyweights from the region in APC; plus the facts that the region's Obas largely support PMB's 2nd term, PDP will have performed well to match their 2015 outing in SW. VP Osinbajo is from the zone (Ogun state) and APC recently won in Ekiti and Osun as well. Irrespective of what anyone might think, it's highly unthinkable for SW to abandon Osinbajo for a promise of SGF position in a PDP government. Forget that Obasanjo and Afenifere are supporting Atiku, these elements are only revered outside the SW.

It's important to point out that the performance of PDP in Osun was not really taken into consideration for the fact that electorate in that election, electorate wanted to punish APC/Aregbesola for not paying workers salaries for many months (same we saw in Ekiti as well). I personally know people who are APC but voted for Adeleke because of the salary issue. So, I do not see PDP doing as well as they did in that governorship election of 2018. Notwithstanding, I have largely left the prediction to about the same outcome of 2015 with just a flip of Ekiti to APC since the party won the governorship election there as recent as three months ago.

Verdict - APC wins SW by about 60% of total votes cast.

please spare us the trash... you claim sw doesn't vote based on ethnicity, yet your campaigns are based on ethnicity. "vote pmb and get presidency in 2023."

you even contradicted yourself by saying that the sw Won't Leave VP position for an sgf position.. who are you really deceiving?

WATCHOVER:

You think say atiku na pushover? Atiku is going to be declared winner mark my words today

It’s not by sentiments. If you follow Atikus campaign you will know it has lost momentum

PassingShot:

I also expect a better result for PMB in SS and SE. As you agreed, it's better to temper expectations from that side than be disappointed.

And the more the turnout, the worse it gets for Atiku.

So,after machine-gunning Igbo youths in the SS and SE,buhari will get a better result in the SE?
Wonderful.

galantjoe:
Nonsense prediction
PDP will win NC, NE, SE, SS, and SW

Here I was thinking I was going to read an objective analysis. Write-up by OP shows he's nothing but an APC aplologist

so someone sat down to write all these?

Here I was thinking I was going to read an objective analysis. Write-up by OP shows he's nothing but an APC apologist

KingOfAllIgbos:


All the major Northern chieftains have deserted Atiku.

Atiku foolishly choose a flattie instead of Yoruba as VP = NO Yoruba mass vote

He chose an Igbo who doesn't have unanimous support of his people.... Only a few Igbos still campaign for him.

Seems the guy set himself up for failure. Beginning to suspect he's a plant by Buhari because he's made such terrible decisions

Lol... at least pretend to see that part where the op said that Yoruba don't vote based on religion and ethnicity... and act accordingly naa.