₦airaland Forum

Chibuking81:
They are good and wonderful entrance, but come to think of it, what if it's the CEOs that are giving it out to pursue another business in NSE, because the rate of offloading can't come from only the members here, or ordinary member. And it's similar to all the big companies like Nestle, Seplat, GTB, Zenith, etc.

Will it be bad to pursue the same business opportunity they are waiting to grab?

We care less about these things u mentioned my dear.
I swiftly KEY IN once I see the market present souvenirs at valuations that are @ discounts relative to my set out target prices.
...every other thing is just a 'mirage of noise' to us !!

U can be rest assured that I'll be down right there on the bid side of trade hoping to execute a buy mandate tomorrow. ...and God on my side(with the provision of even more fund), I'll do same until Friday.
In fact, I already have a yet-to-be-executed in-line mandate with one of my brokers.
I do not joke with great opportunities when I see one. When the market offers me 'packs of great/healthy gifts', I simply take and 'open them' !!

Bottom line:
"When the stock market request for 'a drink' from u, give to it but ONLY if its a sound but cheap one.
...and when it offers u 'a drink', take a sip, then drink a bit more but try NOT to get intoxicated.
It's a great way to benefit more from 'him' over TIME."
~Sinclair

"If u desire to WIN more 'open battles' with the stock market, then NEVER work to PLAY AHEAD of it or seek to TIME It.
...work to PLAY ALONG with it and seek to better ur playing STRATEGY.
Unless of course u wish for a far less win than normal."
~Sinclair

As for MTN, I shall put out my take when they finally list.
There are pros and a few cons with the expected listing, but I am undecided for now.

Salah.

onegentleguy:
We care less about these things u mentioned my dear.
I swiftly KEY IN once I see the market present souvenirs at valuations that are @ premiums, relative to my set out target prices.
...every other thing is just a 'mirage of noise' to us !!

U can be rest assured that I'll be down right there on the bid side of trade hoping to execute a buy mandate tomorrow. ...and God on my side(with the provision of even more fund), I'll do same until Friday.
In fact, I already have a yet-to-be-executed in-line mandate with one of my brokers.
I do not joke with great opportunities when I see one. When the market offers me 'packs of gifts', I simply take and 'open them' !!

Bottom line:
"When the stock market request for 'a drink' from u, give to it but ONLY if its a sound but cheap one.
...and when it offers u 'a drink', take a sip, then drink a bit more but try NOT to get intoxicated.
It's a great way to benefit more from 'him' over TIME."
~Sinclair

"If u desire to WIN more 'open battles' with the stock market, then NEVER work to PLAY AHEAD of it or seek to TIME It.
...work to PLAY ALONG with it and seek to better ur playing STRATEGY.
Unless of course u wish for a far less win than normal."
~Sinclair

As for MTN, I shall put out my take when they finally list.
There are pros and a few cons with the expected listing, but I am undecided for now.

Salah.

salah Mohammed,chai.

double post

onegentleguy:
We care less about these things u mentioned my dear.
I swiftly KEY IN once I see the market present souvenirs at valuations that are @ premiums, relative to my set out target prices.
...every other thing is just a 'mirage of noise' to us !!

U can be rest assured that I'll be down right there on the bid side of trade hoping to execute a buy mandate tomorrow. ...and God on my side(with the provision of even more fund), I'll do same until Friday.
In fact, I already have a yet-to-be-executed in-line mandate with one of my brokers.
I do not joke with great opportunities when I see one. When the market offers me 'packs of great/healthy gifts', I simply take and 'open them' !!

Bottom line:
"When the stock market request for 'a drink' from u, give to it but ONLY if its a sound but cheap one.
...and when it offers u 'a drink', take a sip, then drink a bit more but try NOT to get intoxicated.
It's a great way to benefit more from 'him' over TIME."
~Sinclair

"If u desire to WIN more 'open battles' with the stock market, then NEVER work to PLAY AHEAD of it or seek to TIME It.
...work to PLAY ALONG with it and seek to better ur playing STRATEGY.
Unless of course u wish for a far less win than normal."
~Sinclair

As for MTN, I shall put out my take when they finally list.
There are pros and a few cons with the expected listing, but I am undecided for now.

Salah.

hope you added more Aiico at 66kobo and Wemabank at 68kobo

Ladies and Gentlemen, Market will still fall more than the standard you are seeing now. If you must buy, do so in tranches and over a long period. I personally think more equities will still shed more in prices over the next 2 months.

PETERiCHY:
The SLOGAN use to be SELL IN MAY and GO AWAY.
But with this BUHARI NEXT LEVEL. it will now be SELL in APRIL and RUN AWAY.

NEWBIES take note!
Those that has ears let them hear.
*ThE OcToPuS*

I made the above post 2mths ago March 11 to be precise.

REMINDER....This just a tip of the ICEBERG

stcool:
And you believe a fake news that did not come out until CBN governor was nominated for a second term, you think Buhari will listen to that Bullshit.

Una go dey alright las las.

It's no fake news, but people will almost always overuse their reflex in a time like this. ...and make a mountain out of a mole hill !!

Hours earlier, President Buhari even held a close door meeting with the CBN governor, Mr Emiefula... where he was quoted to have reaffirmed and congratulated the CBN chief on his reappointment for another 5 year term in office.
But of course, the herd mentality means that some folks will always overreact to certain matters... often misrepresenting and misinterpreting them.
Well, we shall be here to quietly 'tap' from any such overreaction once they fit in to our laid out objective !!

Regards.

PETERiCHY:
It's seems you are scared of BUHARI NEXT LEVEL and we still have 4yrs and 3months to Go. So fasten your SELTBELTS and watch out for ALL TIME YEAR LOW.

It's only PESSIMISTS that will benefit from this regime while the OPTIMISTS will bit off their fingers.

BUHARI already told his subjects to EXPECT TOUGH TIMES AHEAD before he retires to DAURA.

Welcome to THE NEXT LEVEL.

*ThE OcToPuS*

SMART TRADERS fasten you seat let's patiently ride the BEAR.
DONT be carried AWAY by the BUY BUY noise.
Because the MARKET will TANK like NEVER BEFORE which in turn will offer a FRESH OPPORTUNITY for WEALTH TRANSFER.

PATIENCE is KEY

*ThE OcToPuS*

If the sell pressure on UBA continues as, it may hover between 4 to 5 naira this week. TA shows sustained bear regime. Scary

FBNH resisted the bears again today. Positive developments are taking place in the bank, as it gradually addresses its NPL. There will be significant NPL improvement this year (less than 10%) which will dramatically affect books

BrokerHaruna:
If the sell pressure on UBA continues as, it may hover between 4 to 5 naira this week. TA shows sustained bear regime. Scary

i beg make he quickly reach there

u fit help push am towards d price target

Dividend hunters, na buy season we dey o....... By december now, some people will keep announcing they are bidding zenith @ #25 and got only tasere unit......Gradually loading and rebalancing my portfolio

BrokerHaruna:
FBNH resisted the bears again today. Positive developments are taking place in the bank, as it gradually addresses its NPL. There will be significant NPL improvement this year (less than 10%) which will dramatically affect books

FBNH has like another 3-4 yrs before it fully recovers.Normally,if you are an SIB and your NPL is above 5% upwards to alarming levels,CBN will invite you to present a 4yr remediation plan which I think FBNH did in 2015.

As you rightly pointed out ,the books will improve this year but that’s just halfway through the journey.This year,FBNH will likely write off over N300bn from their loan books due to Atlantic energy. For proper context, FBNH has made total NPL provisions of over 500bn since 2015 but yet, this huge amount only gives just over 80% (about 70,if you use IFRS 9) coverage ratio, this is really unprecedented in the history of Nigerian banking industry, smaller banks would not survive this ~ the rot is really deep.

If you look at their 2018 audited results, you will realize that NPL increased to about 29% from 25% . Why? The implementation of IFRS 9 which provides for proactive loan provisioning.With this accounting standard, there’s another N200bn of loans which has been moved to stage 2 (payments of interest and principal missed for 9months or so).

With the possible write off this year, NPL ratio will come down to manageable single digit but the bank will require more capital which means they will have to retain a lot of their profits and pay less dividend for a few yrs cos they can’t even come to raise Tier 1 from the market ~ they already have the biggest number of shares among listed banks and the current pricing is not favorable. As a matter of fact , the GMD of FBNH admitted that the bank (First bank) will not upstream dividend to the holding company except they make a significant recovery from their bad loans.

I have a positive bias for the current management, they are not afraid to let you know how bad things are ,which is good cos they were hired to clean up the mess. I believe in a few yrs when they are done with the transformation, the bank will come out stronger and will reward investors by way of capital appreciation and dividends . But there’s something very Nigerian (apologies) about FBNH that tells me that in a few years, probably in 5yrs time, after the current management might have left, the bank will return to old ways of sharing the “national cake” like we do in Nigeria.To avert this , the culture of the bank needs to change to one of excellence and efficiency like their peer GTB.

On current prices,if I’m to invest in any Nigerian bank with the aim of making my return in less than 10yrs , I’d put my money in Zenith ~ heck it’s 14% dividend yield and they are sitting on tonnes of cash by way of shareholders funds, I only worry a little about their corporate governance and their inability/reluctance to crack retail banking.That explains why investors price them a lot lesser than GTB.

If I want to make my return in 15yrs without checking the NSE everyday and probably retain some hope of transferring equity to my grandchildren,then GTB is it. But it doesn’t come cheap because ,no be only me dey see am, institutional investors wan die there!

There could be other good banks, but I’m sorry they are not on my radar for now.

Apologies I had to quote you with this long epistle, I only wanted to write briefly about FBNH but I found myself delving to other things.

wow, uacn had the highest volume today................

Kagame:
FBNH has like another 3-4 yrs before it fully recovers.Normally,if you are an SIB and your NPL is above 5% upwards to alarming levels,CBN will invite you to present a 4yr remediation plan which I think FBNH did in 2015.

As you rightly pointed out ,the books will improve this year but that’s just halfway through the journey.This year,FBNH will likely write off over N300bn from their loan books due to Atlantic energy. For proper context, FBNH has made total NPL provisions of over 500bn since 2015 but yet, this huge amount only gives just over 80% (about 70,if you use IFRS 9) coverage ratio, this is really unprecedented in the history of Nigerian banking industry, smaller banks would not survive this ~ the rot is really deep.

If you look at their 2018 audited results, you will realize that NPL increased to about 29% from 25% . Why? The implementation of IFRS 9 which provides for proactive loan provisioning.With this accounting standard, there’s another N200bn of loans which has been moved to stage 2 (payments of interest and principal missed for 9months or so).

With the possible write off this year, NPL ratio will come down to manageable single digit but the bank will require more capital which means they will have to retain a lot of their profits and pay less dividend for a few yrs cos they can’t even come to raise Tier 1 from the market ~ they already have the biggest number of shares among listed banks and the current pricing is not favorable. As a matter of fact , the GMD of FBNH admitted that the bank (First bank) will not upstream dividend to the holding company except they make a significant recovery from their bad loans.

I have a positive bias for the current management, they are not afraid to let you know how bad things are ,which is good cos they were hired to clean up the mess. I believe in a few yrs when they are done with the transformation, the bank will come out stronger and will reward investors by way of capital appreciation and dividends . But there’s something very Nigerian (apologies) about FBNH that tells me that in a few years, probably in 5yrs time, after the current management might have left, the bank will return to old ways of sharing the “national cake” like we do in Nigeria.To avert this , the culture of the bank needs to change to one of excellence and efficiency like their peer GTB.

On current prices,if I’m to invest in any Nigerian bank with the aim of making my return in less than 10yrs , I’d put my money in Zenith ~ heck it’s 14% dividend yield and they are sitting on tonnes of cash by way of shareholders funds, I only worry a little about their corporate governance and their inability/reluctance to crack retail banking.That explains why investors price them a lot lesser than GTB.

If I want to make my return in 15yrs without checking the NSE everyday and probably retain some hope of transferring equity to my grandchildren,then GTB is it. But it doesn’t come cheap because ,no be only me dey see am, institutional investors wan die there!

There could be other good banks, but I’m sorry they are not on my radar for now.

Apologies I had to quote you with this long epistle, I only wanted to write briefly about FBNH but I found myself delving to other things.

God Bless you plenty for this thorough and unbiased analysis

wish there could be more of same on other counters so pple can make more informed decision

Kagame:
FBNH has like another 3-4 yrs before it fully recovers.Normally,if you are an SIB and your NPL is above 5% upwards to alarming levels,CBN will invite you to present a 4yr remediation plan which I think FBNH did in 2015.

As you rightly pointed out ,the books will improve this year but that’s just halfway through the journey.This year,FBNH will likely write off over N300bn from their loan books due to Atlantic energy. For proper context, FBNH has made total NPL provisions of over 500bn since 2015 but yet, this huge amount only gives just over 80% (about 70,if you use IFRS 9) coverage ratio, this is really unprecedented in the history of Nigerian banking industry, smaller banks would not survive this ~ the rot is really deep.

Nice one bro. Hope you will pop in more often drop more of these kind of insightful analysis. We need to deepen the discourse here.

Are you by any chance a broker or investment analyst?

Kagame:
FBNH has like another 3-4 yrs before it fully recovers.Normally,if you are an SIB and your NPL is above 5% upwards to alarming levels,CBN will invite you to present a 4yr remediation plan which I think FBNH did in 2015.

As you rightly pointed out ,the books will improve this year but that’s just halfway through the journey.This year,FBNH will likely write off over N300bn from their loan books due to Atlantic energy. For proper context, FBNH has made total NPL provisions of over 500bn since 2015 but yet, this huge amount only gives just over 80% (about 70,if you use IFRS 9) coverage ratio, this is really unprecedented in the history of Nigerian banking industry, smaller banks would not survive this ~ the rot is really deep.

If you look at their 2018 audited results, you will realize that NPL increased to about 29% from 25% . Why? The implementation of IFRS 9 which provides for proactive loan provisioning.With this accounting standard, there’s another N200bn of loans which has been moved to stage 2 (payments of interest and principal missed for 9months or so).

With the possible write off this year, NPL ratio will come down to manageable single digit but the bank will require more capital which means they will have to retain a lot of their profits and pay less dividend for a few yrs cos they can’t even come to raise Tier 1 from the market ~ they already have the biggest number of shares among listed banks and the current pricing is not favorable. As a matter of fact , the GMD of FBNH admitted that the bank (First bank) will not upstream dividend to the holding company except they make a significant recovery from their bad loans.

I have a positive bias for the current management, they are not afraid to let you know how bad things are ,which is good cos they were hired to clean up the mess. I believe in a few yrs when they are done with the transformation, the bank will come out stronger and will reward investors by way of capital appreciation and dividends . But there’s something very Nigerian (apologies) about FBNH that tells me that in a few years, probably in 5yrs time, after the current management might have left, the bank will return to old ways of sharing the “national cake” like we do in Nigeria.To avert this , the culture of the bank needs to change to one of excellence and efficiency like their peer GTB.

On current prices,if I’m to invest in any Nigerian bank with the aim of making my return in less than 10yrs , I’d put my money in Zenith ~ heck it’s 14% dividend yield and they are sitting on tonnes of cash by way of shareholders funds, I only worry a little about their corporate governance and their inability/reluctance to crack retail banking.That explains why investors price them a lot lesser than GTB.

If I want to make my return in 15yrs without checking the NSE everyday and probably retain some hope of transferring equity to my grandchildren,then GTB is it. But it doesn’t come cheap because ,no be only me dey see am, institutional investors wan die there!

There could be other good banks, but I’m sorry they are not on my radar for now.

Apologies I had to quote you with this long epistle, I only wanted to write briefly about FBNH but I found myself delving to other things.

Apt, succint, no holes barred.
Well done.

Kagame:
FBNH has like another 3-4 yrs before it fully recovers.Normally,if you are an SIB and your NPL is above 5% upwards to alarming levels,CBN will invite you to present a 4yr remediation plan which I think FBNH did in 2015.

As you rightly pointed out ,the books will improve this year but that’s just halfway through the journey.This year,FBNH will likely write off over N300bn from their loan books due to Atlantic energy. For proper context, FBNH has made total NPL provisions of over 500bn since 2015 but yet, this huge amount only gives just over 80% (about 70,if you use IFRS 9) coverage ratio, this is really unprecedented in the history of Nigerian banking industry, smaller banks would not survive this ~ the rot is really deep.

If you look at their 2018 audited results, you will realize that NPL increased to about 29% from 25% . Why? The implementation of IFRS 9 which provides for proactive loan provisioning.With this accounting standard, there’s another N200bn of loans which has been moved to stage 2 (payments of interest and principal missed for 9months or so).

With the possible write off this year, NPL ratio will come down to manageable single digit but the bank will require more capital which means they will have to retain a lot of their profits and pay less dividend for a few yrs cos they can’t even come to raise Tier 1 from the market ~ they already have the biggest number of shares among listed banks and the current pricing is not favorable. As a matter of fact , the GMD of FBNH admitted that the bank (First bank) will not upstream dividend to the holding company except they make a significant recovery from their bad loans.

I have a positive bias for the current management, they are not afraid to let you know how bad things are ,which is good cos they were hired to clean up the mess. I believe in a few yrs when they are done with the transformation, the bank will come out stronger and will reward investors by way of capital appreciation and dividends . But there’s something very Nigerian (apologies) about FBNH that tells me that in a few years, probably in 5yrs time, after the current management might have left, the bank will return to old ways of sharing the “national cake” like we do in Nigeria.To avert this , the culture of the bank needs to change to one of excellence and efficiency like their peer GTB.

On current prices,if I’m to invest in any Nigerian bank with the aim of making my return in less than 10yrs , I’d put my money in Zenith ~ heck it’s 14% dividend yield and they are sitting on tonnes of cash by way of shareholders funds, I only worry a little about their corporate governance and their inability/reluctance to crack retail banking.That explains why investors price them a lot lesser than GTB.

If I want to make my return in 15yrs without checking the NSE everyday and probably retain some hope of transferring equity to my grandchildren,then GTB is it. But it doesn’t come cheap because ,no be only me dey see am, institutional investors wan die there!

There could be other good banks, but I’m sorry they are not on my radar for now.

Apologies I had to quote you with this long epistle, I only wanted to write briefly about FBNH but I found myself delving to other things.

Decent analysis, you detailed here.

What do you have to say about Eti bank over their decision not to pay dividend over some time now? I understands that they want to build financial buffer that will position them in a viable financial state but do you think there is more to it? Is there any impending shock you think one might encounter in trailing their investment trajectory.

Infinitisi:
Nice one bro. Hope you will pop in more often drop more of these kind of insightful analysis. We need to deepen the discourse here.

Are you by any chance a broker or investment analyst?

I no be investment analyst oh, neither am I a broker. Just someone waiting on the sidelines for a good opportunity or a great market crash

Kagame:
FBNH has like another 3-4 yrs before it fully recovers.Normally,if you are an SIB and your NPL is above 5% upwards to alarming levels,CBN will invite you to present a 4yr remediation plan which I think FBNH did in 2015.

As you rightly pointed out ,the books will improve this year but that’s just halfway through the journey.This year,FBNH will likely write off over N300bn from their loan books due to Atlantic energy. For proper context, FBNH has made total NPL provisions of over 500bn since 2015 but yet, this huge amount only gives just over 80% (about 70,if you use IFRS 9) coverage ratio, this is really unprecedented in the history of Nigerian banking industry, smaller banks would not survive this ~ the rot is really deep.

If you look at their 2018 audited results, you will realize that NPL increased to about 29% from 25% . Why? The implementation of IFRS 9 which provides for proactive loan provisioning.With this accounting standard, there’s another N200bn of loans which has been moved to stage 2 (payments of interest and principal missed for 9months or so).

With the possible write off this year, NPL ratio will come down to manageable single digit but the bank will require more capital which means they will have to retain a lot of their profits and pay less dividend for a few yrs cos they can’t even come to raise Tier 1 from the market ~ they already have the biggest number of shares among listed banks and the current pricing is not favorable. As a matter of fact , the GMD of FBNH admitted that the bank (First bank) will not upstream dividend to the holding company except they make a significant recovery from their bad loans.

I have a positive bias for the current management, they are not afraid to let you know how bad things are ,which is good cos they were hired to clean up the mess. I believe in a few yrs when they are done with the transformation, the bank will come out stronger and will reward investors by way of capital appreciation and dividends . But there’s something very Nigerian (apologies) about FBNH that tells me that in a few years, probably in 5yrs time, after the current management might have left, the bank will return to old ways of sharing the “national cake” like we do in Nigeria.To avert this , the culture of the bank needs to change to one of excellence and efficiency like their peer GTB.

On current prices,if I’m to invest in any Nigerian bank with the aim of making my return in less than 10yrs , I’d put my money in Zenith ~ heck it’s 14% dividend yield and they are sitting on tonnes of cash by way of shareholders funds, I only worry a little about their corporate governance and their inability/reluctance to crack retail banking.That explains why investors price them a lot lesser than GTB.

If I want to make my return in 15yrs without checking the NSE everyday and probably retain some hope of transferring equity to my grandchildren,then GTB is it. But it doesn’t come cheap because ,no be only me dey see am, institutional investors wan die there!

There could be other good banks, but I’m sorry they are not on my radar for now.

Apologies I had to quote you with this long epistle, I only wanted to write briefly about FBNH but I found myself delving to other things.

Good insight on FBNH

stockbuego:
Decent analysis, you detailed here.

What do you have to say about Eti bank over their decision not to pay dividend over some time now? I understands that they want to build financial buffer that will position them in a viable financial state but do you think there is more to it? Is there any impending shock you think one might encounter in trailing their investment trajectory.

I don’t know how long you’ve been following ETI but if you remember a few years ago there we’re allegations of financial impropriety (outright stealing actually) and cooking of books leveled against the board members and guess what, a disgruntled senior executive was the whistle blower who reported to SEC.Actually,the board members advanced loans to themselves and wrote it off as bad loans in addition to other underhand stuffs �

SEC tried to come in and clean things so I don’t know how they are doing now but corporate governance failure is a huge thing to be worried about.A look at their financials for 2-3yrs will tell you what is happening there and guide you towards making a good investment decision.

Kagame:
I don’t know how long you’ve been following ETI but if you remember a few years ago there we’re allegations of financial impropriety (outright stealing actually) and cooking of books leveled against the board members and guess what, a disgruntled senior executive was the whistle blower who reported to SEC.Actually,the board members advanced loans to themselves and wrote it off as bad loans in addition to other underhand stuffs �

SEC tried to come in and clean things so I don’t know how they are doing now but corporate governance failure is a huge thing to be worried about.A look at their financials for 2-3yrs will tell you what is happening there and guide you towards making a good investment decision.

Thank u for this great insight. Actually, my attention was directed towards the stock a month ago because of massive meltdown in share price which I attributed to general market meltdown. I checked their numbers and it seems good. I'm not aware of corporate governance failure. If these is true , one needs to delve deep to know how far they have cleaned up the mess. These corporate governance issue ,exist in most of nse bourse but because of weak and corrupt system that exists in SEC. They are unchecked

I salute average down people ooo, may God continue to provide strength and means to continue to average down oo. As for me I still dey load my gun for 90% zenith and 10% Gtb only. I no get liver for kobokobo stocks ooo. Only following my mind ooo.

To fully understand the current sell pressure in the NSE, you will need to factor in the USA-CHINA escalating trade war. The global economy is being hit hard. No hiding place for NSE either. At tail end, there will be light at end of the tunnel.

Stock Market Loses N141bn as Investors Ponder Emefiele's Leaked Audio
https://businesspost.ng/2019/05/13/stock-market-loses-n141bn-as-investors-ponder-emefieles-leaked-audio/

One-Month Treasury Bills Yields Rise to 11.77%
https://businesspost.ng/2019/05/13/one-month-treasury-bills-yields-rise-to-11-77/

Newrest ASL Exits Stock Exchange as NSE Delists Shares
https://businesspost.ng/2019/05/14/newrest-asl-exits-stock-exchange-as-nse-delists-shares/

NSE Places First Aluminium Nigeria Shares on Suspension
https://businesspost.ng/2019/05/14/shares-of-first-aluminium-nigeria-placed-on-suspension/

Kagame:
FBNH has like another 3-4 yrs before it fully recovers.Normally,if you are an SIB and your NPL is above 5% upwards to alarming levels,CBN will invite you to present a 4yr remediation plan which I think FBNH did in 2015.

As you rightly pointed out ,the books will improve this year but that’s just halfway through the journey.This year,FBNH will likely write off over N300bn from their loan books due to Atlantic energy. For proper context, FBNH has made total NPL provisions of over 500bn since 2015 but yet, this huge amount only gives just over 80% (about 70,if you use IFRS 9) coverage ratio, this is really unprecedented in the history of Nigerian banking industry, smaller banks would not survive this ~ the rot is really deep.

If you look at their 2018 audited results, you will realize that NPL increased to about 29% from 25% . Why? The implementation of IFRS 9 which provides for proactive loan provisioning.With this accounting standard, there’s another N200bn of loans which has been moved to stage 2 (payments of interest and principal missed for 9months or so).

With the possible write off this year, NPL ratio will come down to manageable single digit but the bank will require more capital which means they will have to retain a lot of their profits and pay less dividend for a few yrs cos they can’t even come to raise Tier 1 from the market ~ they already have the biggest number of shares among listed banks and the current pricing is not favorable. As a matter of fact , the GMD of FBNH admitted that the bank (First bank) will not upstream dividend to the holding company except they make a significant recovery from their bad loans.

I have a positive bias for the current management, they are not afraid to let you know how bad things are ,which is good cos they were hired to clean up the mess. I believe in a few yrs when they are done with the transformation, the bank will come out stronger and will reward investors by way of capital appreciation and dividends . But there’s something very Nigerian (apologies) about FBNH that tells me that in a few years, probably in 5yrs time, after the current management might have left, the bank will return to old ways of sharing the “national cake” like we do in Nigeria.To avert this , the culture of the bank needs to change to one of excellence and efficiency like their peer GTB.

On current prices,if I’m to invest in any Nigerian bank with the aim of making my return in less than 10yrs , I’d put my money in Zenith ~ heck it’s 14% dividend yield and they are sitting on tonnes of cash by way of shareholders funds, I only worry a little about their corporate governance and their inability/reluctance to crack retail banking.That explains why investors price them a lot lesser than GTB.

If I want to make my return in 15yrs without checking the NSE everyday and probably retain some hope of transferring equity to my grandchildren,then GTB is it. But it doesn’t come cheap because ,no be only me dey see am, institutional investors wan die there!

There could be other good banks, but I’m sorry they are not on my radar for now.

Apologies I had to quote you with this long epistle, I only wanted to write briefly about FBNH but I found myself delving to other things.

Good points. However, FBNH's current management have made tremendous progress in addressing the NPL issues and this will be become more obvious this year. There's also a near possibility that a major plank of their NPL will turn greenn this year. If that happens, they one may see substantial write backs as provisions had been made. Of all the banks, FBNH is more positioned to positively surprise the market henceforth. It has been over beaten, under rated and punished. There's a saying that the elephant takes its time to move but when it does, the environment shakes. FBNH definitely seems ready to move.

Zenith @ 19 ! wey day never break!
There’s no way this stock will not trade below 17
before November

Yayira:
Zenith @ 19 ! wey day never break!
There’s no way this stock will not trade below 17
before November

I don't see that happening except something fundamentally grievous happens in the country

Yayira:
Zenith @ 19 ! wey day never break!
There’s no way this stock will not trade below 17
before November

Have you collected your diamond N1?

BrokerHaruna:
I don't see that happening except something fundamentally grievous happens in the country

Hmmm..... You don't see it happening? When my mind told me to bail out @ 22.70 someone said they don't see less than 20 happening but currently happening at our very eyes! Anything can happen. Anyway make wealth transfer happen so I can load 1m units

Mpeace:
Have you collected your diamond N1?

no oo.. instead of getting credit alert, I was debited for EDMMS.. lol nothing wey musa no go see for gate.. but it’s part of the process tho.. let them do and give me my money..

BrokerHaruna:
I don't see that happening except something fundamentally grievous happens in the country

Ok oo