Chibuking81:
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2020/04/faac-distributes-n780-926bn-to-fg-states-lgs-for-march/

U are welcome back home dear.
...u know, there's no place like home as they say !!

Regards

Coolcash1:


Let them not expect interest payment this year because government is broke.

Everything will reverse.

Brent will trade higher. NSE will fire up. And we go all dey alright.

Mcy56:

Sir OGG, thanks so much for bringing result analysis back to this thread. Those Q1 short analysis makes so much sense. God bless you.
I just hope other analysts will also come back.
I equally hope those that are good at attacking the person of analysts, their analysis and opinions will desist from doing so. They somehow "chased" and discouraged them. Let's learn to counter with constructive criticisms, whereby we'll all learn instead.
Someone needs to look for our detecthief and bring her back so she can arrest any trouble maker.

Hahaha aka deepsuk

RabbiDoracle:


Everything will reverse.

Brent will trade higher. NSE will fire up. And we go all dey alright.

Sir... Your spirit is there.

onegentleguy:


Relatively flat result albiet with an improved performance accross several KEY revenue and earnings line.
...UBA also retains a BUY rating.

However with this report, ACCESS still maintains a top spot ahead of UBA for us given their current market prices.(MoS from FVE with risk-reward peg in view)

It is well.

And people were having concerns with Q1 2020. We told them no concerns.

Q2 is where the hurdle is.

We are now in the season where any bad result will even result to full bid. Just like in 2018 to 2019 where any good result will result to full offer.

RabbiDoracle:


Everything will reverse.

Brent will trade higher. NSE will fire up. And we go all dey alright.

That's the prayer. So that we can all be laughing to the bank....

Tvegas:


I wouldnt know but the way people react to short term price fluctuations here suggests a lot of people are only interested in trading.

Na heartache the person dey invite be that.

Thinkbigga:
Please why is FBN so sluggish, even with good results?

In the Safari, the elephant is naturally a slow moving animal. But once it is charged, you can't stop it.

So leave the animal to be feeding fat first. Once it finishes and it sees others banks running faster, it will be charged.

onegentleguy:


Q2 u mean.
Impact in Q1(if any) will be very MINOT.
The twin evil of the worry with covid-19 and oil price slump started in mid March, which was already near the end of Q1, so don't expect any material drawback in the FP of quoted coys by then.
...impact will begin to manifest by Q2.

But even then, its not for coys that are antifragile(can infact benefit from current events) and robust(have relatively strong immunity(balance sheet)).
Ur worry is definitely not for coys like MTN, WAPCO, UACN, PZ, CAVERTON, GTB, ZENITH, UBA AIICO, CUSTODIAN, all coys in the HEALTH SECTOR and a few other select stocks.
Soon, certain things will become clear to some of u.

DISCLOSURE: We do not hold all of the aforementioned coys.
NOTE: NOT an investment advice.

It is well.

RabbiDoracle:

And people were having concerns with Q1 2020. We told them no concerns.

Q2 is where the hurdle is.

We are now in the season where any bad result will even result to full bid. Just like in 2018 to 2019 where any good result will result to full offer.

Absolutely !!
...even in Q2, there will still be a few select coys that will WIN !!(see post above)
As with every event, there'll be WINNERS and there'll also be LOSERS.

Our concern is to seek for VALUE along the line.

Regards

BAMOFIN1:
@all two quick questions: 1) do you know whether some traders trade on the NSE using computer algorithm as they do in the US? 2) do you know if there is any stock tracker/software specifically for trading on the NSE (aside from the not too good yochaa on play store) which can alert me whenever a preselected stock has reached a predetermined price range? Thanks.

If you know python you can implement it using selenium and some other web scraping modules. You can code it to run on top online platforms like Morgan Capital. Assuming it is not popular on NSE you can have am advantage sha. I am currently learning candlesticks patterns and after that some other TA tools. When I am through I might try to write some code to automate trades.

Bomboclad:
The see the ASI reversing towards the end of next week. What do you see?

ASI needs to break 24K first. Banks and some big caps will assist it. After that, there will be the next hurdle to climb.

Market has taken off and may not fall as others expect.

veecovee:


In fact, I sold back the stock (Guinness) today at lost.

My faith is more important to me than the whole wealth of NSE.

Banks lend to Breweries na.

So why do you buy banks?

FBNH will get close to UBA soon. The banks efficiency has improved. It should be close to N6 on the back of it's improved result.

RabbiDoracle:


Banks lend to Breweries na.

So why do you buy banks?

On the part in bold; because then, he can assume he is buying into brewery coys INDIRECTLY and not DIRECTLY !!
...don't mind pastor VCV.
He seems to forget that most business sectors usually have an interchange of play in one way or the other.

It is well.

PharmAlfred:
FBNH will get close to UBA soon. The banks efficiency has improved. It should be close to N6 on the back of it's improved result.

...and by then UBA shall be trading @ between N8-10.
No doubt, FBNH has improved a lot in their Nos, considering where they are coming from, but them still no be mate with UBA !!
U should know naw.

Regards

onegentleguy:


...It's alright.
When the equity market begins to receive its own patronage and certain selects stocks start to surge in price, then some investors will begin to see things clearly.
Many will keep crying wolf and miss out on some clear opportunities.
Again, people should rely less on what the media put out and do their homework well.

...hear this;
Oftentimes, the value drive from the price of an asset will usually lag/preceed information dissemination and the eventual action/play that would've driven it. ...that's why u hear such terms as; "it has already been priced in."

Nigeria is so bad and with over-the-roof risk premium, yet investors are embracing the country's bond like never before. ...over 4.5x(459%) in oversubscribtion.
The equity market is presenting a juicy opportunity for the mid to long-term investors.

I have said that the twin worry of oil price strain and covid-19 will come and go.
...just seek to tap from the select opportunities "they bring with them before they go back with it !!"

Selah.

Webinar by IMF, this morning.
Key takeaways are as follows:

General Outlook
1. Africa seems to be supressing the curve so far. It looks like it might escape the worst of the pandemic, but will have to be cautious about it.
2. Possibility of W Curve – i.e. There is a good chance of re-occurrence of the virus, which could see a possibility of regular lockdowns. Businesses need to plan accordingly.
3. Capital will look for countries that are less battered. Western economies are badly battered while countries in Africa, etc are not so battered. Global Capital could flow there, if we can act efficiently to pull it.
4. Emotional and Economic backlash against China is expected. Already, countries and companies are working on strategy to pivot away from China as part of their supply chains. Japan Govt has announced packages for it’s companies bringing back manufacturing home. Businesses need to keep this in mind and work accordingly.

Discretionary Spending.
1. For individuals, health and safety will become No.1 on their agenda from the 3rd of 4th place. There will be more spending on this area and reduction in other discretionary spends.
2. The ticket size of spending will drop for a while. People will spend on cheaper goods than on expensive goods, or delay spending for a while.
3. Extreme acceleration in digital economy. I.e. Home education, home entertainment, home fitness, etc
4. Loyalty shock. People will be less loyal towards brands as other aspects will take over. People will switch brands faster due to various other concerns like safety, etc.
5. General Trust deficit. There will be trust deficit amongst stakeholders like vendors, customers, employees, borrowers, banks, etc. Banks will have trust deficit with borrowers, companies will have trust deficit with suppliers, etc.

Liquidity and P&L
1. Segregate Good Costs and Bad Costs
a. Good costs (Eg. Digitization, tech costs, digital marketing, best employees, etc) need to be insulated and protected
b. Bad Costs (Eg. Fancy office, unnecessary spending, bad performers, traditional working methods) need to be ruthlessly eliminated. Don’t be emotional about non-core businesses. Concentrate on core business.
2. Be Frugal – Not necessary to have fancy office, fancy cars, excess employee strength, etc. Remove all the flab and be lean.
3. Maintain Good behaviour – have frank and open conversation with all stakeholders like suppliers, employees, etc and try to find the middle ground, so that the burden can be shared justly.
4. Be Future Ready – In this crisis, there will be winners and there will be losers. Those who re-orient their strategy will be winners.


Govt Stimulus.
1. Economy was in poor shape even before Covid. The govt has little leeway to provide large stimulus.
2. Govt earns alot from taxes, with losses experiences how will this be pushed up?
3. Inequality has already sharpened. The gap between rich and poor has further increased. Govt needs to concentrate on mass health and mass welfare. If not, 40 million people could sink into poverty.
4. Govt must explore printing currency (Quantitative easing), but there are limitations here. It has side effects like inflation, etc. Rich countries have more leeway for such quantitative easing.
5. Govt must concentrate on grabbing more capital from outside and do reforms to enable that.

Result of backlash against China
1. Internationally, there could be an emotional and economic backlash against China.
2. Businesses with supply chains passing through China will need to keep this in mind and insulate themselves and build alternatives.
3. Africa and african businesses need to try to become the contract manufacturer of the world, just like China is. They need to make use of this opportunity smartly.
4. All big wealth funds and soverign funds will be awash with Liquidity. This liquidity needs to be attracted.
5. In every sector, there are good and bad companies. Management has to invest correctly in manufacturing and modern tech, be honest and fair to all stakeholders, etc., Those companies with good management and displaying good behaviour will come out victorious.

Export Business
1. African exporters need to build trust. They need live up to promises made. They need to deliver on time and deliver the promised quality. They shouldn’t make incorrect promises just to get more business.
2. Asian export business has built trust and a good reputation. Despite a chequered past (low quality, human rights issues, etc) they have managed to overcome and are winning.

Wholesale, Retail, etc.
1. More people will prefer to buy from retail stores where there is perception of safety (Eg. Sanitation, cleanliness, crowds, etc). They will move more towards malls away from markets. Many will move towards online stores. Wholesale suppliers also need to concentrate on such retailers.
2. Customers also need to be ringfenced:
a. A high end restaurants need to give high percentage of bill value as gift coupons to be used anytime upto December 2020.
b. Car companies and mortgages should give buy back offers, incase the customer loses his job in the next one year.
3. Pricing needs to be re-approached. People are looking for cheaper prices or cheaper goods.

Brick & Mortar in Discretionary Spends.
1. Private academies could take a big hit in the near future. Entertainment could move home.
2. Because of this, cafes and restaurants might see some increase in business. Many chains are implementing measures like social distancing like lesser furniture, etc, to build confidence to consumers.
3. Smaller retailers need to send a message of safety. Eg: Have sanitisers, put up notice of no Covid positive employee found in the store, maintain social distancing, etc.
4. Since travel and tourism will take a big hit, connected purchases will also shift. Purchases that happened abroad will happen at home. (Eg. Electronics, Luxury goods and apparel, etc.,). But travel related purchases will drop.

Financial Markets
1. There will be value destruction and value creation in different companies in the same sector.
2. High Debt low margin companies will find it difficult. (indicates risky or unscrouplus management)
3. High Debt high margin companies could be rewarded, but caution needs to be exercised. (may indicate sharp or dynamic management)
4. No debt high margin companies are best rewarded now.
5. Know more about the CEO and management and their actions and activities.
6. New tech unicorns will be born. Those involved in cyber security, cloud services, online education services, etc.

Forex Markets
1. No doomsday scenario (i.e. Dollar will keep on going up etc). Such scenarios don’t seem realistic
2. Govt should be buying as much oil as possible, as such prices may never be seen in the future of oil.
3. As the western economies are more battered and local economy is less battered so far, there is more liquidity coming in. That’s why there is a rally in the market. This scenario could change depending on the spread of the disease.
4. Watch out for sharp spikes in the market. Better to avoid the spikes.

Outlook for near future.
A. Large Companies
a. Huge concern seen for employees. Companies are paying the employees even when closed.
b. Right sizing will happen
c. Safety of employees and customers is becoming a major point of focus.
d. This is possible because they have reserves of funds, etc that have been built up over the years.

B. Medium and Small businesses.
a. They have to work with thin capital reserves. Excess capital is taken out of the business and applied into personal assets.
b. Small businesses take out the surplus and purchase personal assets instead of re-investing in the business. There are various factors and motivations here.
c. Because of this, they are unable to meet the cash expenses of even the next month.
e. Medium and Small business need to have a look at how they can build some business reserves to endure such disruptions.

“Force Majeure” in Contracts
1. Should 'force majeure' clauses be triggerd in various contracts like rent, supply, etc? It will lead to litigation, but there is no point in getting into litigation now.
2. All parties have been affected by the crisis. The tenants, the landlords, the lenders/financiers, etc.
3. Parties need to sit across the table and find a common ground and mutually decide upon the costs, rentals, etc. Burden has to be shared.

Work From Home Scenario.
1. It is possible for lot of employees to not visit the office and still be productive.
2. Telecoms and ISP will be singing Halleluyia to the banks
3. Parents can take care of children more effectively. There can be dark hours when no calls will be made, etc.

Optimism
As per a McKinsey survey of entrepreneurs released few days ago, 67% of African entrepreneurs are optimistic, 53%, while only 37% of Asian entrepreneurs are optimistic.
It seems to be a mild U-Curve for some African economies. But the descent has not stopped yet.

#COPIED

...interesting !!
Note points 1, 2 3(under General Outlook) and 4(Liquidity and P&L), both in bold, and...... plus......

Access Bank Profit Sheds 0.7% to N40.9bn in Three Months
https://businesspost.ng/banking/access-bank-profit-sheds-0-7-to-n40-9bn-in-three-months/

UBA Declares N30bn Profit in First Quarter of 2020
https://businesspost.ng/banking/uba-declares-n30bn-profit-in-first-quarter-of-2020/

Wapic Insurance Refunds Insurance Premiums to Customers
https://businesspost.ng/auto/wapic-insurance-refunds-customers-insurance-premiums/

Investors Oversubscribe Dangote Cement's N100bn Bonds
https://businesspost.ng/economy/investors-oversubscribe-dangote-cements-n100bn-bonds/

onegentleguy:


Webinar by IMF, this morning.
Key takeaways are as follows...

General Outlook
1. Africa seems to be supressing the curve so far. It looks like it might escape the worst of the pandemic, but will have to be cautious about it.
2. Possibility of W Curve – i.e. There is a good chance of re-occurrence of the virus, which could see a possibility of regular lockdowns. Businesses need to plan accordingly.
3. Capital will look for countries that are less battered. Western economies are badly battered while countries in Africa, etc are not so battered. Global Capital could flow there, if we can act efficiently to pull it.
4. Emotional and Economic backlash against China is expected. Already, countries and companies are working on strategy to pivot away from China as part of their supply chains. Japan Govt has announced packages for it’s companies bringing back manufacturing home. Businesses need to keep this in mind and work accordingly.

Discretionary Spending.
1. For individuals, health and safety will become No.1 on their agenda from the 3rd of 4th place. There will be more spending on this area and reduction in other discretionary spends.
2. The ticket size of spending will drop for a while. People will spend on cheaper goods than on expensive goods, or delay spending for a while.
3. Extreme acceleration in digital economy. I.e. Home education, home entertainment, home fitness, etc
4. Loyalty shock. People will be less loyal towards brands as other aspects will take over. People will switch brands faster due to various other concerns like safety, etc.
5. General Trust deficit. There will be trust deficit amongst stakeholders like vendors, customers, employees, borrowers, banks, etc. Banks will have trust deficit with borrowers, companies will have trust deficit with suppliers, etc.

Liquidity and P&L
1. Segregate Good Costs and Bad Costs
a. Good costs (Eg. Digitization, tech costs, digital marketing, best employees, etc) need to be insulated and protected
b. Bad Costs (Eg. Fancy office, unnecessary spending, bad performers, traditional working methods) need to be ruthlessly eliminated. Don’t be emotional about non-core businesses. Concentrate on core business.
2. Be Frugal – Not necessary to have fancy office, fancy cars, excess employee strength, etc. Remove all the flab and be lean.
3. Maintain Good behaviour – have frank and open conversation with all stakeholders like suppliers, employees, etc and try to find the middle ground, so that the burden can be shared justly.
4. Be Future Ready – In this crisis, there will be winners and there will be losers. Those who re-orient their strategy will be winners.


Govt Stimulus.
1. Economy was in poor shape even before Covid. The govt has little leeway to provide large stimulus.
2. Govt earns alot from taxes, with losses experiences how will this be pushed up?
3. Inequality has already sharpened. The gap between rich and poor has further increased. Govt needs to concentrate on mass health and mass welfare. If not, 40 million people could sink into poverty.
4. Govt must explore printing currency (Quantitative easing), but there are limitations here. It has side effects like inflation, etc. Rich countries have more leeway for such quantitative easing.
5. Govt must concentrate on grabbing more capital from outside and do reforms to enable that.

Result of backlash against China
1. Internationally, there could be an emotional and economic backlash against China.
2. Businesses with supply chains passing through China will need to keep this in mind and insulate themselves and build alternatives.
3. Africa and african businesses need to try to become the contract manufacturer of the world, just like China is. They need to make use of this opportunity smartly.
4. All big wealth funds and soverign funds will be awash with Liquidity. This liquidity needs to be attracted.
5. In every sector, there are good and bad companies. Management has to invest correctly in manufacturing and modern tech, be honest and fair to all stakeholders, etc., Those companies with good management and displaying good behaviour will come out victorious.

Export Business
1. African exporters need to build trust. They need live up to promises made. They need to deliver on time and deliver the promised quality. They shouldn’t make incorrect promises just to get more business.
2. Asian export business has built trust and a good reputation. Despite a chequered past (low quality, human rights issues, etc) they have managed to overcome and are winning.

Wholesale, Retail, etc.
1. More people will prefer to buy from retail stores where there is perception of safety (Eg. Sanitation, cleanliness, crowds, etc). They will move more towards malls away from markets. Many will move towards online stores. Wholesale suppliers also need to concentrate on such retailers.
2. Customers also need to be ringfenced:
a. A high end restaurants need to give high percentage of bill value as gift coupons to be used anytime upto December 2020.
b. Car companies and mortgages should give buy back offers, incase the customer loses his job in the next one year.
3. Pricing needs to be re-approached. People are looking for cheaper prices or cheaper goods.

Brick & Mortar in Discretionary Spends.
1. Private academies could take a big hit in the near future. Entertainment could move home.
2. Because of this, cafes and restaurants might see some increase in business. Many chains are implementing measures like social distancing like lesser furniture, etc, to build confidence to consumers.
3. Smaller retailers need to send a message of safety. Eg: Have sanitisers, put up notice of no Covid positive employee found in the store, maintain social distancing, etc.
4. Since travel and tourism will take a big hit, connected purchases will also shift. Purchases that happened abroad will happen at home. (Eg. Electronics, Luxury goods and apparel, etc.,). But travel related purchases will drop.

Financial Markets
1. There will be value destruction and value creation in different companies in the same sector.
2. High Debt low margin companies will find it difficult. (indicates risky or unscrouplus management)
3. High Debt high margin companies could be rewarded, but caution needs to be exercised. (may indicate sharp or dynamic management)
4. No debt high margin companies are best rewarded now.
5. Know more about the CEO and management and their actions and activities.
6. New tech unicorns will be born. Those involved in cyber security, cloud services, online education services, etc.

Forex Markets
1. No doomsday scenario (i.e. Dollar will keep on going up etc). Such scenarios don’t seem realistic
2. Govt should be buying as much oil as possible, as such prices may never be seen in the future of oil.
3. As the western economies are more battered and local economy is less battered so far, there is more liquidity coming in. That’s why there is a rally in the market. This scenario could change depending on the spread of the disease.
4. Watch out for sharp spikes in the market. Better to avoid the spikes.

Outlook for near future.
A. Large Companies
a. Huge concern seen for employees. Companies are paying the employees even when closed.
b. Right sizing will happen
c. Safety of employees and customers is becoming a major point of focus.
d. This is possible because they have reserves of funds, etc that have been built up over the years.

B. Medium and Small businesses.
a. They have to work with thin capital reserves. Excess capital is taken out of the business and applied into personal assets.
b. Small businesses take out the surplus and purchase personal assets instead of re-investing in the business. There are various factors and motivations here.
c. Because of this, they are unable to meet the cash expenses of even the next month.
e. Medium and Small business need to have a look at how they can build some business reserves to endure such disruptions.

“Force Majeure” in Contracts
1. Should *force majeure* clauses be triggerd in various contracts like rent, supply, etc? It will lead to litigation, but there is no point in getting into litigation now.
2. All parties have been affected by the crisis. The tenants, the landlords, the lenders/financiers, etc.
3. Parties need to sit across the table and find a common ground and mutually decide upon the costs, rentals, etc. Burden has to be shared.

Work From Home Scenario.
1. It is possible for lot of employees to not visit the office and still be productive.
2. Telecoms and ISP will be singing Halleluyia to the banks
3. Parents can take care of children more effectively . There can be dark hours when no calls will be made, etc.,

Optimism
As per a McKinsey survey of entrepreneurs released few days ago, 67% of African entrepreneurs are optimistic, 53%, while only 37% of Asian entrepreneurs are optimistic.
It seems to be a mild U-Curve for some African economies. But the descent has not stopped yet.

#COPIED

...interesting !!
Note points 1, 2 3(under General Outlook) and 4(Liquidity and P&L), both in bold, and...... plus......

Many thanks for sharing OGG. I share in their optimism, as for the backlash against China, i expect a robust response from the world community if no official apologies emanates from Beijing when the dust is settled.

dinyelutochukwu:
Many thanks for sharing OGG. I share in their optimism....

Oga....and you copied that whole writeup just to say few things?
You should have simply share the article nah.

dinyelutochukwu:


Many thanks for sharing OGG. I share in their optimism, as for the backlash against China, i expect a robust response from the world community if no official apologies emanates from Beijing when the dust is settled.

My Pleasure dear !!
...and I agree with u on the part in bold.
It'll be hot on China post covid-19.
Am thinking that this might be the beginning of the end of GLOBALIZATION as we know it.
...the signs are there.
It will be difficult for things to return to initial statuesque on economic connection and integration. But then again, I also do NOT expect a sharp deviation from the norm. ..."the world will have to sit somewhere in between", especially in the short to mid-term.

Regards

Absolutely, it would get to 24k, but that would be after its current downward retracement, which would last till late next week like I earlier noted.

RabbiDoracle:


ASI needs to break 24K first. Banks and some big caps will assist it. After that, there will be the next hurdle to climb.

Market has taken off and may not fall as others expect.

China is also a victim of the Corona virus, why should anyone seek to punish them for something that also affected them simply because they were the first victims.

onegentleguy:


My Pleasure dear !!
...and I agree with u on the part in bold.
It'll will be hot on China post covid-19.
Am thinking that this might be the beginning of the end of GLOBALIZATION as we know it.
...the signs are there.
It will be difficult for things to return to initial statuesque on economic connection and integration. But then again, I also do NOT expect a sharp deviation from the norm. ..."the world will have have sit somewhere in between", especially in the short to mid-term.

Regards

ojesymsym:
China is also a victim of the Corona virus, why should anyone seek to punish them for something that also affected them simply because they were the first victims.

They may end up as the "sacrificial lamb" in the quest to bring back normalcy across the globe. ...while it might not be justifiable, it might be "ok" for them(key world powers) to "get the ball rolling"
Bro u no go understand.

However, on the part about strain in globalization, I think it's the reasonable thing to do at this time.
China will even feel more heat from that. ...they will lose a lot of market share on industrial production and there might be serious job loses. Am predicting a sharp drop in the Chinese market post covid-19.
The Gov't in most countries will look to protect and grow their economies from within.

Selah

Hmmm. I hope you realize that China has used this opportunity to build Bridges and make friends. When the EU abandoned Italy and many other countries, it was China that came to their aid.
The trade war with US started before the covid19 saga so they would have already compensated for that in their permutations. Industrially, China will still be strong if you ask me.

onegentleguy:


They may end up as the "sacrificial lamb" in the quest to bring back normalcy across the globe. ...while it might not be justifiable, it might be "ok" for them(key world powers) to "get the ball rolling"
Bro u no go understand.

However, on the part about strain in globalization, it is the reasonable thing to do at this time. ...China will even feel more heat from that. ...they will lose a lot of market share on industrial production and there might be serious job loses. Am predicting a sharp drop in the Chinese market post covid-19.
The Gov't in most countries will look to protect and grow their economies from within.

Selah

ojesymsym:
Hmmm. I hope you realize that China has used this opportunity to build Bridges and make friends. When the EU abandoned Italy and many other countries, it was China that came to their aid.
The trade war with US started before the covid19 saga so they would have already compensated for that in their permutations. Industrially, China will still be strong if you ask me.

I get ur point.
But the truth is; there is no way a strain in globalization will not affect them.
...China is the industrial and production hub of the world.

Again, there is reason why the Gov't/leaders will want to focus more from within to grow their economies.
The concerns around covid-19 means that there'll be serious disruptions in global supply chain, so job markets accross the globe will come under a lot of pressure.
As a result, most countries will want to protect their own by creating the needed environment and allowing for more produce back home(backward integration/import substitution). ...that way, they can cushion job loses.
Japan, Germany and the US have already started out with these measures.

This goes beyond wanting to just pick a quarrel or even a fight with China.

That country will likely not remain the same post covid-19. ...especially in the short to mid-term.

Regards

Human testing of experimental Covid-19 vaccine starts in Britain

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/world/human-testing-experimental-covid-19-vaccine-starts-in-britain

Okay. Okay. Point noted.

onegentleguy:


I get ur point.
But the truth is; there is no way a strain in globalization will not affect them.
...China is the industrial and production hub of the world.

Again, there is reason why the Gov't/leaders will want to focus more from within to grow their economies.
The concerns around covid-19 means that there'll be serious disruptions in global supply chain, so job markets accross the globe will come under a lot of pressure.
As a result, most countries will want to protect their own by creating the needed environment and allowing for more produce back home(backward integration/import substitution). ...that way, they can cushion job loses.
Japan, Germany and the US have already started out with these measures.

This goes beyond wanting to just pick a quarrel or even a fight with China.

That country will likely not remain the same post covid-19. ...especially in the short to mid-term.

Regards

Mcy56:

Oga....and you copied that whole writeup just to say few things?
You should have simply share the article nah.

This madam go k!ll me with laff ...Just what was going through my mind. I was like ''Haba, u 4 just quote the first paragraph nah and help us save some space'' Lol

Hi everyone,

here is a simple chart for ZENITH showing the bearish swing starting 10th February - 11th August, 2019.

The retracement ended at the 61.8% Fibonacci level and we expect price to extend to the 161.8% Fibonacci level on the downside.

This 161.8% level is at 9.3X (almost co-incident with the monthly time frame support at 9.44).

All the best everyone!

meshpips:
Hi everyone,

here is a simple chart for ZENITH showing the bearish swing starting 10th February - 11th August, 2019.

The retracement ended at the 61.8% Fibonacci level and we expect price to extend to the 161.8% Fibonacci level on the downside.

This 161.8% level is at 9.3X (almost co-incident with the monthly time frame support at 9.44).

All the best everyone!

Once decapitation has occurred, prices will need to move off from the low to settle at a higher stable point(s). And that is what is going on worldwide.

I will use Exxon Mobil chart as example. Afterwards, I will post other charts which show similar pattern.

I'm using ExxonMobil because it is in the sector that is most ravaged by this crisis. Yet it is lifting over the kumo to stabilize first.

From the chart below, 2 things can happen:

(1) A violent breakout into the kumo to emerge above that daily cloud. See the single arrow.
Like the 10 10% rise. for NSE.

(2) A gentle move horizontally, then breakout to stay above the kumo.

Similar thing should play out on the other charts I will post.

meshpips:
Hi everyone,

here is a simple chart for ZENITH showing the bearish swing starting 10th February - 11th August, 2019.

The retracement ended at the 61.8% Fibonacci level and we expect price to extend to the 161.8% Fibonacci level on the downside.

This 161.8% level is at 9.3X (almost co-incident with the monthly time frame support at 9.44).

All the best everyone!

We can all relate with this one,though may not share the same sentiment.
Good work from you and I hope to see more of this

The NSE banks and the index are doing the same thing.

So applying the arrows used in the ExxonMobil chart, see GTB and Zenith.

These are possible price paths to stay above the kumo.

A rejection will mean that a new low will be formed. I think it is highly unlikely.