Nobody predicted Corona. Even Warren Buffet who have been investing for decades bought billions worth of Delta Airlines shares and sold at a loss. As a result, many millennials on Reddit that made profit on Delta stock have been expressing ecstasy as to how better they are in the investment world than someone who's been doing it for decades.

The difference is this: Warren's failure (or long term thinking) was publicized but nobody has a clue what other stocks these millennials have lost hugely on in their portfolios.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but if FGN defaults on bonds we have more things to worry about as a nation.

As I always say, it is sweet to be shouting feminism in Nigeria and demanding for equal rights while men in countries like Iran are not even enjoying basic comfort that warrants anyone singing equality melodies to their ears.

If Oga ahib lost millions on currency speculations, he won't share that here. Many people have lost millions on cryptocurrencies, some backed out, some are still into it.

No investment is truly safe. A friend of mine that works in the U.S has her 401k investment in the red as we speak. She has started learning how to buy stocks, is stocks risk free? No, in fact stocks has more risks.

If you're saying people should not invest in FGN bonds because FG will default due to debts. I put it to you that the probability of someone dying (even naturally) may be higher than FG defaulting, so why invest at all when you can die tomorrow?

ukay2:



I lost heavily in bank PHB. ..I see it as school fees payments in NSE and am better now and making more profits now after paying school fees in my early days in NSE.

Some people ran away from NSE then and never came back, but I refused to back out from NSE and am happy now.

Also have equities and Bonds in NYSE via Trove App

nice how do u get dividen paid to your accounts( dorm)?

GonFreecss1:


1. If you didn’t know there would be future production cuts, then you have not been following these things long enough. Note that in that period, there wasn’t even a production cut, it was just no sales! Worse than a production cut could ever be. So what is your point?

2. Also wrong sir. Go and check the historical charts of the external reserve and see how sharp it went down. Hovered around this? Lol! Bros! I am beginning to believe what those guys meant about your points days back.

3. I am not talking about oil. I was talking about Dollar to naira rates. In which due to the fact that oil had not been sold for a long time, would affect it and due to the fact as with number 1 above - production cuts! Like I said, if you have been following these things for a while you will understand.

4. Hahahahaha. If you don’t know why the Nigerian government decided to borrow money instead of spending down to that Number, bros... then there is still a lot more you need to understand.


You say luck?

I am not the bragging type, but my buying power says otherwise.

1)Every oil price case is different from the other,
How would you know there would be production cuts when the 2 biggest players in OPEC were at war with each other?How would you know when they will come to a truce,that is if they ever will?
This is what started the downtrend of oil,not coronavirus.
"No sales" was temporary,everyone knows this as there isn't a replacement for oil yet,so no sales don't matter.
2)Do we have different charts on reserves?I am looking at one now and there is a serious hovering between the $33-45B range in times of normalcy.
3)You can't talk about dollar to naira rates and not talk about its major determinant which is oil for now.
Production cuts were uncertain since the tension between Saudi and Russia.
If not for coronavirus which forced them to a truce,the price war would probably still be on till now and no production cuts would be made.
Meaning Lesser problem for Nigeria and more naira defence strength.
4)Government has been borrowing even in the times of Nigeria prosperity,so how does this point to the fact that CBN was helpless so much that it had to borrow.
Have you seen some of the capital projects Nigeria is embarking on?
Why won't they borrow?
No one is bragging,we are discussing if you ask me.

Tobex4realTobex234:
If Oga ahib lost millions on currency speculations, he won't share that here. Many people have lost millions on cryptocurrencies, some backed out, some are still into it.

No investment is truly safe. A friend of mine that works in the U.S has her 401k investment in the red as we speak. She has started learning how to buy stocks, is stocks risk free? No, in fact stocks has more risks.

If you're saying people should not invest in FGN bonds because FG will default due to debts. I put it to you that the probability of someone dying (even naturally) may be higher than FG defaulting, so why invest at all when you can die tomorrow?

dont mis understand me ....i didnt say people should not invest in bond or any other fgn instruments...but they should understand that their are some risk associated with it which a layman might not know like foriegn exchange risk etc ....so in order to mitigate risk we should spread our assets class ....fgn bonds , commerical paper ,rents , rsa ,skills , migration ,fixed asset , enterprises.....like madam does ....she has a house in ireland , have income in euros , have bonds in naira have retirement accounts in euro , have rents in Nigeria...etc ..

There is a reason why fund managers that have spent years studying the markets and long hours writing Python scripts charge commision on capital, and not on the profit.

Are you saying an average guy on Nairaland has more resources or information than a Wall Street fund manager? And if those fund managers cannot even guarantee investment safety, why do we worry so much about the most minimal of things?

I once saw someone on this platform say Dangote was wrong to have invested in the refinery business. Sincerely, if anyone knows better (in risk assessment), you would sure be richer consulting for asset management firms than being here on a faceless forum.

Every investment has a risk/reward component and everyone is urged to do their due diligence but when you actually engage in analysis paralysis and taking things to the extremely unlikely cases, then you will end up not doing anything because apart from you dying the next day, there is also the probability that the world itself can end anytime.

Tobex4realTobex234:
There is a reason why fund managers that have spent years studying the markets and long hours writing Python scripts charge commision on capital, and not on the profit.

Are you saying an average guy on Nairaland has more resources or information than a Wall Street fund manager? And if those fund managers cannot even guarantee investment safety, why do we worry so much about the most minimal of things?

I once saw someone on this platform say Dangote was wrong to have invested in the refinery business. Sincerely, if anyone knows better (in risk assessment), you would sure be richer consulting for asset management firms than being here on a faceless forum.

Every investment has a risk/reward component and everyone is urged to do their due diligence but when you actually engage in analysis paralysis and taking things to the extremely unlikely cases, then you will end up not doing anything because apart from you dying the next day, there is also the probability that the world itself can end anytime.

Well said!

I won’t be surprised if you said you are a Charterholder.

Tobex4realTobex234:
There is a reason why fund managers that have spent years studying the markets and long hours writing Python scripts charge commision on capital, and not on the profit.

Are you saying an average guy on Nairaland has more resources or information than a Wall Street fund manager? And if those fund managers cannot even guarantee investment safety, why do we worry so much about the most minimal of things?
9
I once saw someone on this platform say Dangote was wrong to have invested in the refinery business. Sincerely, if anyone knows better (in risk assessment), you would sure be richer consulting for asset management firms than being here on a faceless forum.

Every investment has a risk/reward component and everyone is urged to do their due diligence but when you actually engage in analysis paralysis and taking things to the extremely unlikely cases, then you will end up not doing anything because apart from you dying the next day, there is also the probability that the world itself can end anytime.

A lot of people think bonds are safe havens.
That is what ahiboilandgas is trying to re-orientate.
You have to watch like a hawk so that at the sight of bad news,you cut your losses and regain your capital.
Not that people shouldn't invest because of risks.
No one said that.

ahiboilandgas:
dont mis understand me ....i didnt say people should not invest in bond or any other fgn instruments...but they should understand that their are some risk associated with it which a layman might not know like foriegn exchange risk etc ....so in order to mitigate risk we should spread our assets class ....fgn bonds , commerical paper ,rents , rsa ,skills , migration ,fixed asset , enterprises.....like madam does ....she has a house in ireland , have income in euros , have bonds in naira have retirement accounts in euro , have rents in Nigeria...etc ..

Exactly. No one should invest in what they don't understand. And I agree that risks are on different levels, but people also have different risk profiles. As we they here for Tbills thread, some people they for agric crowdfunding threads, some they forex threads, some are on betting threads looking for odds.

To us, those things are more risky. To them, what we are doing here is less rewarding.

It's okay to let people know of the basics of risk assessment but then we all have different risk profiles.

The amount of debt for the next quarter will definitely be lowered.

Federal government has no maturing Bond for the next one year apart from the paltry savings bond. This will lower the debt service. The next Maturing bond is the 14.5% July 2021 Bond. Only coupons will be paid. I don't think the next 4 quarter reports from April this year will hit 800 Billion

If u observed, DMO is already in favour of long term Bonds.

The lifespan of Nigerian bonds will soon reach it's elastic limit, the debts has been stretched beyond limits, the country Nigeria won't be able to repay the debt in 250 years from now, it is too much debt, the solution for the government is to keep servicing. There will come a point when the foreign investors will carry their money then Nigeria will be left with local investors money, we are not far from it. Sukuk was to borrow N150 billion but they ended up borrowing N162 billion, what is the plan for the additional N12 billion? Nothing but to embezzle.



It has happened in Zimbabwe, It has happened in Venezuela, it is happening now in Nigeria. Bonds are good in a growing economy but Nigerian economy is at decline phase. Recently i realized the money generated from 1 year bond period is what i can make within 6 months of investing at the right place, eye opener indeed.
Obviously it is better to have your money work for you but there are better aspects that generates double. Recently i made N1.3m interest within 2 months doing nothing, this same amount i would have to wait one year with fixed bonds capital of N13m to generate that interest. In another 2 months i will make another 1.3m doing almost nothing, short term investment is a key to wealth multiplication.

ukay2:


I invested heavily in skye bank then and bailouts when I saw their finances were on Red, though one guy in nsepa was marketing skye bank then....Until it ended in crises.

No serious investor invest and go to sleep.....

But for FGN investments, let it fall on all of us make we see

Loooooool

i taught u dont make over analysis

Philantropists:
The lifespan of Nigerian bonds will soon reach it's elastic limit, the debts has been stretched beyond limits, the country Nigeria won't be able to repay the debt in 250 years from now, it is too much debt, the solution for the government is to keep servicing. There will come a point when the foreign investors will carry their money then Nigeria will be left with local investors money, we are not far from it. Sukuk was to borrow N150 billion but they ended up borrowing N162 billion, what is the plan for the additional N12 billion? Nothing but to embezzle.



It has happened in Zimbabwe, It has happened in Venezuela, it is happening now in Nigeria. Bonds are good in a growing economy but Nigerian economy is at decline phase. Recently i realized the money generated from 1 year bond period is what i can make within 6 months of investing at the right place, eye opener indeed.
Obviously it is better to have your money work for you but there are better aspects that generates double. Recently i made N1.3m interest within 2 months doing nothing, this same amount i would have to wait one year with fixed bonds capital of N13m to generate that interest. In another 2 months i will make another 1.3m doing almost nothing, short term investment is a key to wealth multiplication.

Theconglomerate:
A lot of people think bonds are safe havens.
That is what ahiboilandgas is trying to re-orientate.
You have to watch like a hawk so that at the sight of bad news,you cut your losses and regain your capital.
Not that people shouldn't invest because of risks.
No one said that.

You're making a lot of sense today. Which ogogoro did you drink

We don de know una small small, for DMO related issues, you seem like the goto man.

unite4real:
The amount of debt for the next quarter will definitely be lowered.

Federal government has no maturing Bond for the next one year apart from the paltry savings bond. This will lower the debt service. The next Maturing bond is the 14.5% July 2021 Bond. Only coupons will be paid. I don't think the next 4 quarter reports from April this year will hit 800 Billion

If u observed, DMO is already in favour of long term Bonds.

Chaii.. Una too like trouble.
The truth is that he offers a different perspective only spoilt with his manner of delivery, bickering, expert opinion on things not sure of and insults.
If you can somehow overlook those things, you can be fine.

Nigsrdumb:


You're making a lot of sense today. Which ogogoro did you drink

I'm really learning a lot from you guys

Please how about Water production

Most people are saying that the market is too saturated

Philantropists:
The lifespan of Nigerian bonds will soon reach it's elastic limit, the debts has been stretched beyond limits, the country Nigeria won't be able to repay the debt in 250 years from now, it is too much debt, the solution for the government is to keep servicing. There will come a point when the foreign investors will carry their money then Nigeria will be left with local investors money, we are not far from it. Sukuk was to borrow N150 billion but they ended up borrowing N162 billion, what is the plan for the additional N12 billion? Nothing but to embezzle.



It has happened in Zimbabwe, It has happened in Venezuela, it is happening now in Nigeria. Bonds are good in a growing economy but Nigerian economy is at decline phase. Recently i realized the money generated from 1 year bond period is what i can make within 6 months of investing at the right place, eye opener indeed.
Obviously it is better to have your money work for you but there are better aspects that generates double. Recently i made N1.3m interest within 2 months doing nothing, this same amount i would have to wait one year with fixed bonds capital of N13m to generate that interest. In another 2 months i will make another 1.3m doing almost nothing, short term investment is a key to wealth multiplication.

Nigeria is not Zimbabwe, Nigeria is not Venezuela. The largest black nation on earth is too big to fail!!!

Theconglomerate:
A lot of people think bonds are safe havens.
That is what ahiboilandgas is trying to re-orientate.
You have to watch like a hawk so that at the sight of bad news,you cut your losses and regain your capital.
Not that people shouldn't invest because of risks.
No one said that.

Yes, bonds are a safe haven. I chose to see it as Treasury Bills with a longer tenure.

If we can trust the government to return our capital after 90, 180, or 360 days, why can't we trust them with 7years given that most of us usually roll over our Treasury Bills investment during the good days?

IyawoToBe:


Yes, bonds are a safe haven. I chose to see it as Treasury Bills with a longer tenure.

If we can trust the government to return our capital after 90, 180, or 360 days, why can't we trust them with 7years given that most of us usually roll over our Treasury Bills investment during the good days?

A lot can happen in 7 years if you ask me,but then...
Risk appetite differs and I understand that.

Wiseoldman:


Nigeria is not Zimbabwe, Nigeria is not Venezuela. The largest black nation on earth is too big to fail!!!

Famous last words.
I used to feel somewhat the same way, but given the quality of this government, anything can happen.
Diversify, diversify, diversify, and hedge the naira risk.

Cyberknight:


Famous last words.
I used to feel somewhat the same way, but given the quality of this government, anything can happen.
Diversify, diversify, diversify, and hedge the naira risk.

i never ever taught there will be a suicide bomber from Nigeria ....i use to think Nigerians cannot comit suicide......if govt borrow to build roads with suku then toll this raod to pay back over the bond period with some govt support then the road become free in 8 years time ....no endless borrowings to pay interest on bonds ....so there must be an elastic limits ...

Interest rates are really dropping. I'm sure MMFs are not exempted

The way the global economy is going ehn. I'm having this bad feeling that in coming weeks, naira will lose more ground to dollars to 460, from 450.

Lol.
Perhaps the end game is to take interest rates close to that of the UK (base rate is 0.1%, projected to hit zero by next quarter), and the US (federal funds rate is 0.25%) to compel "investors" to move out of safe harbours invest in the real economy the CBN keeps hyping.

You guys should leave people alone and let them invest in peace. Stop making people panic and Stop worrying of uncertainty.
Not everyone will diversify or follow your mode of investing.
Every damn thing is risky.

The real estate risks: tenant defaulting rent, troublesome tenants, fire accident burning the whole building to scratch, (Nigeria insurance won’t pay full damages) vacant flats, land revoking and more land problems too.

Investment in goods and services: no customers patronizing , goods expiring, accidents, theft.

Stock risks: global Stock crashes, company making loss.

Euro bonds: anything can happen to dollar too, example WAR can crash dollar too or naira gaining and inability of government to pay back in $$ or $$ unavailability.

We are all living in uncertainty.

Diversity is good but not everyone will do that. People are scared of losing their hard earned money and some are even scared to buy $$ as anything could go wrong with their money in the process or they could fall into fraudster.

You guys should stop preaching every minutes like people that invested all their fund in FGN bond committed a crime and as if Nigeria or naira would collapse tomorrow.

Sholapey:
Thank you for this write up sir, please pinch me to exit whenever you see the danger light.

Lol... You will have to keep your 'torchlight' on, steady.

FGN Bonds Primary Market Auction will hold tomorrow, Wednesday, with a total offer of N165.0bn across the 5, 15 and 30 years tenors; Minimum: above N50 million

noobs123:
You guys should leave people alone and let them invest in peace. Stop making people panic and Stop worrying of uncertainty.
Not everyone will diversify or follow your mode of investing.
Everything damn thing is risky.

The real estate risks: tenant defaulting rent, troublesome tenants, fire accident burning the whole building to scratch, (Nigeria insurance won’t pay full damages) vacant flats, land revoking and more land problems too.

Investment in goods and services: no customers patronizing , goods expiring, accidents, theft.

Stock risks: global Stock crashes, company making loss.

Euro bonds: anything can happen to dollar too, example WAR can crash dollar too or naira gaining and inability of government to pay back in $$ or $$ unavailability.

We are all living in uncertainty.

Diversity is good but not everyone will do that. People are scared of losing their hard earned money and some are even scared to buy $$ as anything could go wrong with their money in the process or they could fall into fraudster.

You guys should stop preaching every minutes like people that invested all their fund in FGN bond committed a crime and as if Nigeria or naira would collapse tomorrow.

u are under no obligations to read it .....just assume they are blank pages ...

Barrytone:
FGN Bonds Primary Market Auction will hold tomorrow, Wednesday, with a total offer of N165.0bn across the 5, 15 and 30 years tenors; Minimum: above N50 million

N40,000,000,000 - 12.75% FGN APR 2023 (5-Yr Re-opening)*
N50,000,000,000 - 12.50% FGN MAR 2035 (15-Yr Re-opening)*
N60,000,000,000 - 12.98% FGN MAR 2050 (30-Yr Re-opening)*

It's 150B actually

unite4real:


N40,000,000,000 - 12.75% FGN APR 2023 (5-Yr Re-opening)*
N50,000,000,000 - 12.50% FGN MAR 2035 (15-Yr Re-opening)*
N60,000,000,000 - 12.98% FGN MAR 2050 (30-Yr Re-opening)*

It's 150B actually

Thanks for the update, I don't have 50m handy at the moment.

Sholapey:
Thank you for this write up sir, please pinch me to exit whenever you see the danger light.

sure i have some holdings too .thank God we are sell in the secondary markets ...we we are not comfortable with pay back abilities