stcool:


Altcoins is milking money in recent times...from less than $1 to $7 in some

Na there I wan enter...not Bitcoin & Ethereum

Like which one?
Thread with caution.

RabbiDoracle:


UACN

Dem go soon come for your head.

I only say Baba, na you say gida. My hand no dey oh. No be from my mouth them hear UACN

RabbiDoracle:


Covid should have benefitted this company.

Most FMCG companies made tons of sales globally.

I think there may have been switch from seemingly high-end goods to cheaper alternatives. Instead of using toothbrush and tooth paste, they use a twig (pako).

In Nigeria, most of the listed FMCG companies will most likely be impacted negatively.

onegentleguy:

Now ur beginning to see what we saw in UNILEVER.
See the 2nd post above.

The company is struggling along several key revenue and earnings line. ...they've had unfavourable payment terms and are still struggling to push sales despite the over 3x acceleration in expense line to support that.

I was suppose to include it on the list of antifragile coys, but I didn't(see the 1st post above).
While most of their product line are what u may consider as essential items(Lux soap, Knorr maggi cube, Close-up, Omo, Vaseline, Blue band margarine, Lipton tea... etc), the company made some mistakes in their marketing strategy, the aftermath of which was a drop in MARKET SHARE despite price stability. ...particularly in the food and home & personal care business units.

That mistake, coupled with a lack of innovation meant that consumers sought for alternatives with lower price points, while their own distributors struggled to push sales.
...the result? A glut/surge in inventory and a sharp fall in receivables. A combination of unfavourable business enviroment and excessive cost input(particularly overheads) meant that most of those receivables became non-performing, forcing the company to tighten credit terms. ...I expect this to pose some strain to earnings in the short term(see the 1st part in bold from 2nd post above)

Elsewhere, the company still has worries with cash obligations as trade payables increased without matching remittances, while the thing about funding mismatch meant that the group's book continues to be riddled with high interest debt.
Indeed, there are clear worries in UNILEVER, but let me stop here.

It is not all gloomy though. Looking at certain figures in their 2019 YE FP, I believe the company still have the cash, a robust product line and manpower to turn things around. Management only need to be more PROACTIVE and EFFICIENT !!
The equity price might rise but folks should note the last part in bold from the 2nd post above.

On a side note, PZ also did experience most of these struggles, but is currently in a better position(state of health) than UNILEVER.

DISCLAIMER: NOT to be infered as any sought of recommendation.
My advise: Pls kindly follow ur instinct.

zimams:
I've had Unilever on my radar... I expected this loss, but the 'cut' is much deeper than I anticipated. It's a huge loss. Will see how the market reacts to it for the rest of the week and the days ahead, while we peruse their result closely to see what impaired their recovery so badly. Whether na only Covid.. or another thing dey...

Frankly, the financial print from Unilever was totally expected !!
...the signs were there from Q3, 2019. I mentioned it here back then.(see post above)
Highlights at the time;

• 1st was the border closure which pressured export.
• Then there was the matter of decreased sales in goods at the back of a competitive enviroment(from decelerating purchasing power) given the chase for lower price points/alternatives from consumers on the local front.
...the result?
• A huge backlog of non-performing receivables. ...particularly in the food and H&PC segments of business.
• There was need to curb it down to avoid a strain in WC(working capital) that could potentially create a funding mismatch with time.
• Management decided it was best to cut off all their distributor lines and engage the service of a sole distributor to exclusively market their product.
...this though, would come at a cost.

The challenge...
That decision to disengage all distributor line came in Q3, 2019 and was due to kick-start in Q4.
Fast-forward to the covid-19 era and u do not need a soothsayer to tell u that their distribution chain would likely be stiffled as the pandemic brought with it, severe supply disruptions.
...now for a company that was already going through a phase of lower demand(decreased sales), it was only going to be a matter of time before that strain(both from the supply and demand side of the curve) results in a loss in market share.
This is why u see decelerating gross margin amid a continuously pressured(lower) inventory turnover.(the last 3 quarters in view)

My view...
I think it would've been better to go the PZ route of allowing for a slightly added duration in repayment plan or put a modality in place to improve on receivables, instead of cutting off all distribution lines.(well, no one saw covid-19 coming)

Coys in the FMCGs are well positioned to benefit from the curent worries(most are anti-fragile) but Unilever already had an issue before now !!
...as a result, they were'n't able to tap into the benefit from the corona-induced environment.

The FPs of PZ, UACN and FLOURMILLS will likely witness an improvement from previous quarter.(slight for PZ though)
PZ was also struggling before now but their next financials should come in better than previous print.

I highlighted some of these worries in Unilever here back then. ...though I also mentioned that those keying in should do so for trading and nothing more.
At the time, TA signalled a buy @ N10+... before it rose to over N16 then. refer to link; https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/5592#88765140

Selah

GSK round two movement just stated.

RabbiDoracle:


Covid should have benefitted this company.

Most FMCG companies made tons of sales globally.

I think there may have been switch from seemingly high-end goods to cheaper alternatives. Instead of using toothbrush and tooth paste, they use a twig (pako).

Boss ...I wonder too oo... The matter tire me....

onegentleguy:



Frankly, the financial print from Unilever was totally expected !!
...the signs were there from Q3, 2019. I Mentioned it here back then.(see post above)
Highlights at the time;
.
.
.
I highlighted some of these worries in Unilever here back then. ...though I also mentioned that those keying in should do so for trading and nothing more.
At the time, TA signalled a buy @ N10+. refer to link; https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/5592#88765140

Selah

Thanks

onegentleguy:



Frankly, the financial print from Unilever was totally expected !!
...the signs were there from Q3, 2019(mentioned it here back then)
Highlights at the time;


I highlighted some of these worries in Unilever here back then. ...though I also mentioned that those keying in should do so for trading and nothing more.
At the time, TA signalled a buy @ N10+. See link; https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/5592#88765140

Selah

...when looking for excellent fundamental analysis on NSE stocks, posts from @onegentleguy and some wonderful minds on this forum are what I scan through, however, at times, some of these posts are contrarian. When there is a contrast between FA & TA, in my view TA (short term) always win. The best analysis scenario is achieve when FA is in agreement with TA.

Looking back to Unilever in April, TA signaled BUY (as well pointed out by @onegentleguy when the "books" are negative for the stocks & we can see some good profits recorded between N10.50 to say N17! Once again this is for "short-term"

Now that Unilever results are out and not encouraging to the FA, I am also seeing some contradiction to what the "book" and the chart are saying. If -ve sentiment could possibly drag the stock down to between 11-12 & price actions shows a BUY, that will be a valid BUY Signal for another short-term trade.

Tony Elumelu purchased about 63m units of UBA shares @6.20.

Is this a sign of good result waiting to be released?

.....

.....

Battle to hold Fbnh support at N5 continues......

phoinix:

My Sis, that stone no be here, thank God his aim dey rusty I for don end for hospital o.

Lol. Your eyes go soon clear.

Mcy56:

Is GSK not in Nigeria too? Or don't they have affiliation with UK arm?
You better follow smart money chop.

Not any form of advice o.

leo1234:


Some brought at 8.6(intraday high)
Picked some units today @4.4

I am already there waiting for exit.

Thanks for providing insight @onegentleguy.
This one is a long game...

I have some confusion around 'border closure and it's real impact'. Does it impact legal channels for export? while it stops illegal entry of goods that compete with locally produced alternatives, does it impact volume export of locally produced goods in the opposite direction (out)?

onegentleguy:



Frankly, the financial print from Unilever was totally expected !!
...the signs were there from Q3, 2019. I mentioned it here back then.(see post above)
Highlights at the time;

• 1st was the border closure which pressured export.
• Then there was the matter of decreased sales in goods at the back of a competitive enviroment on increased lower price points/alternatives from consumers on the local front.
...the result?
• A huge backlog of non-performing receivables. ...particularly in the food and H&PC segments of business.
• There was need to curb it down to avoid a strain in WC(working capital) that could potentially create a funding mismatch with time.
• Management decided it was best to cut off all their distributor lines and engage the service of a sole distributor to exclusively market their product.
...this though, would come at a cost.

The challenge...
That decision to disengage all distributor line came in Q3, 2019 and was due to kick-start in Q4.
Fast-forward to the covid-19 era and u do not need a soothsayer to tell u that their distribution chain would likely be stiffled as the pandemic brought about severe supply disruptions.
...now for a company that was already going through a phase of lower demand(decreased sales), it was only going to be a matter of time before the strain from both the supply-demand side of the curve results in a loss in market share.
This is why u see decelerating gross margin amid a continuously pressured(lower) inventory turnover.(the last 3 quarters in view)

My view...
I think it would've been better to go the PZ route of allowing for a slightly added duration in repayment plan or put a modality in place to improve on receivables, instead of cutting off all distribution lines.(well, no one saw covid-19 coming)

Coys in the FMCGs are well positioned to benefit from the curent worries(most are anti-fragile) but Unilever already had an issue before now !!
...as a result, they were'n't able to tap into the benefit from the corona-induced environment.

The FPs of PZ, UACN and FLOURMILLS will likely witness an improvement from previous quarter.(slight for PZ though)
PZ was also struggling before now but there next financials should come in better than previous print.

I highlighted some of these worries in Unilever here back then. ...though I also mentioned that those keying in should do so for trading and nothing more.
At the time, TA signalled a buy @ N10+... before it rose to over N16 then. refer to link; https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/5592#88765140

Selah

E Ku market o.
See silence!

Let me break it small:

Jaiz bank is paying 3kobo for 2019 FYE.....the first dividend in the history of the bank.

chunkuli:
is this omaojo?

no sir

Alhaji's guys are at it again: cross deals ongoing with dangcem losing N4......

Massive cross deals ongoing in NB......up with N1 now......something must be brewing here.....and is not only Star larger beer.......

Caveat: Not any form of buy/sell advice pls.

zimams:
Thanks for providing insight @onegentleguy.
This one is a long game...

I have some confusion around 'border closure and it's real impact'. Does it impact legal channels for export? while it stops illegal entry of goods that compete with locally produced alternatives, does it impact volume export of locally produced goods in the opposite direction (out)?

It also Impacts on COST.
Although the border closure mainly impacts Import, Export will also come at a higher cost(COSG) as it means that they'll likely spend a little more pushing for sales.
...the result is a pressure in GROSS MARGIN and eventual decline in NPM.

I do understand the reason for ur question though. ...guess the motive behind it is that FCMGs are infact, suppose to benefit from the border closure.
There's a 2-way fold to that though;
1) Where their revenue margin(greater sales in view) tilts between exports and local sales.
2) To what extent/degree they rely on import of raw materials.(Import substitution/backward integration in view)

Coys that will be highly favoured by the border closure are those those whose revenue build-up relies far more on local sales than export with point No 1... and those who rely less on import of raw materials for their goods with point No 2.
Where the 2 criterias are met, u should expect nothing short of an acceleration in NPM.(the 1st entails higher gross margin while the 2nd betters EBIT/operating margin)

This is why coys like DANGOTE SUGAR, OKOMU OIL and FMCGs like UACN and FLOURMILL will be better positioned than the likes of UNILEVER, CADBURY and PZ.
The 1st 2(DS and OKOMU are in line for bigger gains)... while UACN and FLOURMILLS are the best placed in FMCGs.

Beyond the matter of border closure, UNILEVER had other issues. ...signs to their worries were there before then.

It is well.

Mcy56:
E Ku market o.
See silence!

Let me break it small:

Jaiz bank is paying 3kobo for 2019 FYE.....the first dividend in the history of the bank.

Just 3 Kobo

The fair price should be 30 kobo.

leo1234:
Just 3 Kobo
The fair price should be 30 kobo.

Dem no try?
How much did your sterling pay and is selling above N1?

I want to blv that whosoever Jijo Unilever must have get out before now........
Let's wait for another Jijo time again, its coming down, it will got to our safe junction again........
....... apologies to the long termers, nothing do you.......

Mcy56:
I want to blv that whosoever Jijo Unilever must have get out before now........
Let's wait for another Jijo time again, its coming down, it will get to our safe junction again........
....... apologies to the long termers, nothing do you.......

I thought Unilever go day full offer now

Sellers still setting high price for Unilever lol, I wait at 8 junction

ebuka1997:

I thought Unilever go day full offer now

Not on full offer my bros, the loss has been somehow priced in.
Only that it would have gone up if the result had been positive.
Jijoist will wait at circa 9 or 10 to pick some units.........

ebuka1997:
Sellers still setting high price for Unilever lol, I wait at 8 junction

Impact may have been priced into the equity peg for the most part.
...I don't see it dropping that low.
But then again, everything is often possible in the stock market.

Selah

onegentleguy:


Impact may have been priced into the equity peg for the most part.
...I don't see it dropping that low.
But then again, everything is often possible in the stock market.

Selah

Lol I’m aware, trying to wake up the Unilever long termers
I’ll watch it for a rebound later this week but the question is how soon are they expected to recover considering this challenge of receivables

Mcy56:

Not on full offer my bros, the loss has been somehow priced in.
Only that it would have gone up if the result had been positive.
Jijoist will wait at circa 9 or 10 to pick some units.........

Yeah I’m seeing some bids at 11.7, 10 is my bus stop tho

Mcy56:

Dem no try?
How much did your sterling pay and is selling above N1?

Next time if you want to give example, use banks like GTB, UBA and zenith.

leo1234:
Next time if you want to give example, use banks like GTB, UBA and zenith.

Even your humble self will stone me if I make such comparison.

Meanwhile, Zee support broken at 15.60...........now 15.50......

Vitafoam currently on hot demand!

Ibrahim505:
Vitafoam currently on hot demand!

That's interesting