Please I need lecture on buying on breakouts /average up strategy.

When and how to use it?

Mcy56:

Lol. Typical of Nsempas. Always waiting for blame game .......but when "the going is going good", .......well, except maybe very few, rare few. It's well.

Mcy, I think that statement is condescending. I also think you should name those always waiting for the blame game, they will probably constitute less than 10% of members in this group.Don't lump everyone here together.

At the end everyone should strive to be masters in investment analysis without waiting for people. That way nobody will be looking up to anyone for stock recommendation. No one on this thread including you, OGG,myself or anyone should see themselves as larger than life such that they can not be criticised in a constructive way. What I detest is shifting blame to people because of a wrong call.

Also, If the thread has lost meaning to anyone they should create a watzapp group and allow us to see road. The thread has lost its meaning so what are you doing there . Somehow the thread will continue to survive. People will also continue to make rash statement from time to time and they will be corrected. So all these condescending talks are not necessary .

I for one wouldnt touch Neimeth or Upl for investment purpose because they can't match my volume but I won't tackle OGG on such recommendation. If I tackled him, would I have committed a crime ?

If you feel slighted by anyone just state your point, ignore them and move on. When people abuse you it means you are either doing something wrong or right. STNWAUME who made the comment was roundly corrected by everyone, so why coming out to flog the issue again?

It's a faceless forum lets learn to take what people say with a pinch of salt.

meine:
Mcy, I think that statement is condescending. I also think you should name those always waiting for the blame game, they will probably constitute less than 10% of members in this group.Don't lump everyone here together.

At the end everyone should strive to be masters in investment analysis without waiting for people. That way nobody will be looking up to anyone for stock recommendation. No one on this thread including you, OGG,myself or anyone should see themselves as larger than life such that they can not be criticised in a constructive way. What I detest is shifting blame to people because of a wrong call.

Also, If the thread has lost meaning to anyone they should create a watzapp group and allow us to see road. Somehow the thread will survive. But all these condescending talks are not necessary .

I for one wouldnt touch Neimeth or Upl for investment purpose because they can't match my volume but I won't tackle OGG on such recommendation. If I tackled him, would I have committed a crime ?

If you feel slighted by anyone just state your point, ignore them and move on. When people abuse you it means you are either doing something wrong or right. STNWAUME who made the comment was roundly corrected by everyone, so why coming out to flog the issue again?

It's a faceless forum lets learn to take what people say with a pinch of salt.

Well said!

Mcy56:

Lol. Typical of Nsempas. Always waiting for blame game .......but when "the going is going good", you wouldn't hear anything neither will they acknowledge/appreciate the person that recommend the stock.......well, except maybe very few, rare few.
It's well.

Dont you know that the pain of losing is psychologically about twice as powerful as the pleasure of gaining. If I do you good one day and do you bad the next day, one year from now you would only remember the bad way I do.

And, to you grumbler, do your DD always, if you did you wouldn't be whining about UACN.

Like they say in roma, Italy; Chi fa da sé fa per tre, which translates to he who does it by himself, does it for three people.

SEC, Registrars to Simplify Processing Unclaimed Dividends
https://businesspost.ng/economy/sec-registrars-to-simplify-processing-unclaimed-dividends/

BDC Operators Trade Pound at N620 in Abuja, N617 in Lagos
https://businesspost.ng/economy/bdc-operators-trade-pound-at-n620-in-abuja-n617-in-lagos/

Brent Returns to $45 as Disruptive Storms Shutdown Production
https://businesspost.ng/economy/brent-returns-to-45-as-disruptive-storms-shutdown-production/

Stock Market Gains N4bn to Open Week Bullish
https://businesspost.ng/economy/stock-market-gains-n4bn-to-open-week-bullish/

Unlisted Securities Market’s Value Appreciates by 0.28% Monday
https://businesspost.ng/economy/unlisted-securities-markets-value-appreciates-by-0-28-monday/

Nokwary Technologies Wins 2020 Ecobank Fintech Challenge
https://businesspost.ng/technology/nokwary-technologies-wins-2020-ecobank-fintech-challenge/

Dangote Suagr 6 year result analysis...
Enjoy...

DrAwo:
Dangote Suagr 6 year result analysis...
Enjoy...

God bless you sir, you are one of the people doing the real hardwork on this thread. Kudos.

dipoolowoo:
SEC, Registrars to Simplify Processing Unclaimed Dividends
https://businesspost.ng/economy/sec-registrars-to-simplify-processing-unclaimed-dividends/

/

GOODNEWS

RECCESION LOADING

^
^^
^^^

OBAGADAFFI:


GOODNEWS

Really good news.
...but that's if they can live up to it.

Transcorp digging for oil

Gurus in the house i got this from Meristem today

Good morning Sir,

We trust this mail meets you well.

Please confirm if you have mandated your account by filling an E-dividend mandate form as the Registrar are the custodian of dividend payment. If you have not, enclosed is an E-mandate form to be filled, passport affixed and scanned back for onward processing. This comes with a charge of N200.

Also, attached is a share transfer form and a specimen copy to guide you for the processing of your specimen signature with the concerned Registrar as this is usually carried out for shares purchased via the secondary market.

Once your account has been mandated, all outstanding and subsequent dividends will be credited directly into your bank account by the Registrar.



Thank you for giving us the privilege to serve you.


Warm Regards,

I have submitted my e-Dividend with GT Bank and they have charged me and transmitted why am i doing all this again?

And does this happen with other Registrars cuz GTL didnt ask me for this

Thanks in advance

I thought they said Tony Elumelu is a wonderful board guru. How come Transcorp is crumbling on his head? #heirholdings

meine:
Mcy, I think that statement is condescending.

No vex.

ukay2:
Madam, do you like e-Nkwobi?

Lol. Hope you're good sir.

bolaayenimo:
I thought they said Tony Elumelu is a wonderful board guru. How come Transcorp is crumbling on his head? #heirholdings

The village elders behind transcorpse are more than TE, unless he appease them.

RichEstate:
Please I need lecture on buying on breakouts /average up strategy.

When and how to use it?

Nsempas have been averaging up by buying more stocks since the low of March. They will probably stop when dividend yield is less than 14,%

It will be nice to clearly understand what Transnational Corporation of Nigeria Plc does before one starts to expect one big performance from the company. The Company’s business is investment and operation of portfolio companies in the hospitality, power, agro-allied and oil
& gas sectors. The Company maintains controlling interests in the following companies. The Company, together with the subsidiaries
are known as the Transcorp Group, ("the Group"
- Capital Leisure and Hospitality Limited
- Transcorp Hotels Plc
- Transcorp Hotels Calabar Limited
- Transcorp Energy Limited
- Teragro Commodities Limited
- Transcorp Power Limited
- Transcorp Properties Limited
- Transcorp OPL 281 Limited
- Transcorp Hotels Ikoyi Limited
- Transcorp Hotels Port Harcourt Limited

All the above listed subsidiaries are the vehicles that the company use to generate its income. The power business is bedevilled with huge receivables that is rarely paid on time. Covid 19 has dealt seriously with the Hospitality sector. The Oil business is comatose. the Agriculture venture was a disaster. I do not know the assets that the Properties coy manages. The whole coy is just a loud noise without substance. Maybe we will buy when it gets to 20kobo like someone suggested earlier. It once traded at the car park for many years before TOE came onboard. It seems that TOE himself has lost the plot to revive the company.

bolaayenimo:
I thought they said Tony Elumelu is a wonderful board guru. How come Transcorp is crumbling on his head? #heirholdings

onegentleguy:

A good example was the last time I put up the post above.
That coy is UPL. ...which at the time was trading at btw 91-95k.
Ordinarily, I could've immediately gone ahead to mention it here even if am not buying it myself, so others with interest can align, but I had to inform just a few individuals who are close to me.(folks like my good brother @Oracle, @billtommy, @charlesniper, @bumba1234, @ekpotek and a few others can attest to this. The stock has since gained near 40% and also closed on full bid today.
...coy was so grossly underpriced at the time.
With a valuation model that factors in all key current CF lines but uses an approach that discounts a great % proportion of all worries in lieu of future risk(given the seasonal nature of the business), FVE still computes to N2.41.
As I told some folks then, the board of directors of UPL could decide to keep every other asset belonging to the company(PPEs, other fixed and intangible assets etc) and pay minority shareholders from just its current cash accrual(excluding possible LTFCF), and that payment can still be near 2.5x the mkt price back then.(@ 95k)

Some even had to mock me for my view on UACN. ...as if our view and "belief system" has changed.
But for anything, our "believability" has in fact, increased, so we buy more !!
In the end, we'll see who will have...
Time will help set matters straight.

CAVEAT: Any decision to align with the aforementioned coy should go beyond this post. ...so due dilligence still apllies as always.

My advise? Pls follow ur instinct.

onegentleguy:


On NEIMITH, trust we remember that the company is of an international status with business/investment spread accross 4 francophone countries(the Gambia, Ghana, Sierra Leone and Liberia) aside Nigeria.

Some of their product within the pharmaceutical line of business like CIKLAVIT(used for the management of sickle cell disease), NCP and Homtamin G is now among the high selling ethical and consumer line product in the 5 African countries(including Nigeria) they currently operate.

The company also plays in the Veterinary(animal-related) business space with several product brands spread accross that chain.

Looking at their last 3 financial print(YE 2018 to Q3 2019 in view) though appears to be poor, it gave some insight on the drive for better growth margin.
...and when u benchmark the coys sorrounding RISK to the match of PRICE and FVE, u would see that feasible REWARD has since overtaking it(risk-return from MoS peg in view)
Like I always tell folks;

When u see a bad result reveal clear signs of accelerating REWARD compared to decelerating surrounding RISK and feasible MoS return runs ahead of the match of price against FVE, run in and ask questions later !!
Alternatively, when u see a good result reveal signs of decelerating REWARD when benchmarked with surrounding risk while price runs faster than the match of feasible MoS return against FVE, run with ur two legs touching ur head !!

Bottom line: The stock is a buy @ current mkt price.

CAVEAT: NOT to be interpreted as any sought of recommendation. ...following ur instinct should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.

onegentleguy:

On NEIMETH, I personally did a couple of analysis here and advised a BUY at the time the coy was selling for btw 38-39k. ...U may wish to go back to my past posts, some of which I also revisited recently.(see 4 amongst many above)
Apart from the thing about inherent REWARD and how surrounding RISK had at the time made a mockery of it, I also highlighted the value proposition in the coy.
Some persons argued about it(they could only see the bad side of the result) even after I highlighted the last post above. ...that's the same way some are also now seeing only the bad side of the report cards of UACN and WAPCO.

Apparently, they do not understand how the 5 of; POINT OF INFLECTION, GROWTH MARGIN, CASH FLOW POSITION, SURROUNDING RISK and FEASIBLE REWARD(MoS peg in view) relate to each other.

Folks should look through that 1st post above and do their homework well. ...not when a coy like say PZ, FO or CHAMS doubles in price, they'll say they were taken unawares. UNIONDAC has already proposed an MTO @ 75% premium to mkt, while some others(except for FO) have returned great gains.

Besides, I also wrote 2 articles on this.
...the problem is that people don't act IN TIME !!

As for JAPAUL OIL & GAS, well, NO comment !!

It is well.

rebekah2011:
people should thread UPL with caution. The coy makes money in Q2 (July - September). Other 3 quarters are losses. COVID-19 will seriously affect the company in 2020/21. Although the Full year 2019/2020 will come with lower profit than last year. Dividend of 10k or bonus is likely but 2020/2021 will be disappointing.

@rebekah, one of the reason I like u is because u often do have doubts, which is not bad.
This reminds me of ur doubt in NEIMETH whose financial print and likely reward also appeard to be worrisome and unworthy at the time, but have now turned the corner.
Trust u have now seen how the same NEIMETH has delivered over 665% earnings growth while also having the best NPM, ROE, EM, AER and CGPR amongst coys in the pharmaceutical space.
Sure u also remember what I told u here back then(see post... https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/5020#84169286)

Until u can understand, relate and apply the parts in bold(from the 2nd and 3rd post above), u won't see the potentials in this sort of coys.

Hear this;
One of the finest aspect of value investing is in the ability to align and reap returns often gotten from a POTENTIAL TURNAROUND COY !!
...because margins tend to follow a v-shaped pattern at the POINT OF INFLECTION.
When u can spot that point just before it happens, then u can reap great returns.

On UPL, I'll advise that u read that 1st(upper) post again.
Focus on the parts in bold... and while at it, try to read about valuing a company while assuming that growth margin= 0.
Use a valuation model that considers only near/short term assets discounting a huge % proportion of risk, then estimate the FV.
Maybe then, u will begin to see things clearly.
But if u still couldn't, just know that I will continue to like u.
After all, if there are no doubters, the market could lose its dynamic essence and money might not flow to small folks like us.

Perhaps, u think its for nothing that UPL is pushing up in price. Dude is currently up by near 10% from yesterday's close of N1.36 to N1.49(though yet to exchange a vol that will capture it on the days tradebook)
...its even on full bid right now.
It's alright !!

Selah.

rebekah2011:
It will be nice to clearly understand what Transnational Corporation of Nigeria Plc does before one starts to expect one big performance from the company. The Company’s business is investment and operation of portfolio companies in the hospitality, power, agro-allied and oil
& gas sectors. The Company maintains controlling interests in the following companies. The Company, together with the subsidiaries
are known as the Transcorp Group, ("the Group"
- Capital Leisure and Hospitality Limited
- Transcorp Hotels Plc
- Transcorp Hotels Calabar Limited
- Transcorp Energy Limited
- Teragro Commodities Limited
- Transcorp Power Limited
- Transcorp Properties Limited
- Transcorp OPL 281 Limited
- Transcorp Hotels Ikoyi Limited
- Transcorp Hotels Port Harcourt Limited

All the above listed subsidiaries are the vehicles that the company use to generate its income. The power business is bedevilled with huge receivables that is rarely paid on time. Covid 19 has dealt seriously with the Hospitality sector. The Oil business is comatose. the Agriculture venture was a disaster. I do not know the assets that the Properties coy manages. The whole coy is just a loud noise without substance. Maybe we will buy when it gets to 20kobo like someone suggested earlier. It once traded at the car park for many years before TOE came onboard. It seems that TOE himself has lost the plot to revive the company.

In line with my reply to u above, let me also relate it to this TRANSCORP.
Yes there are surrounding RISK in the coy, which apparently "eats deep into" near term feasible REWARD.
U already mentioned some of those worries/risk like low RECEIVABLES. There's also the worry about weak cash flow position, high LEVERAGE, low AER, low EM and low CGPR.

However, its imperative to consistently seek ways to RELATE the price of an asset to its FVE discounting all worries (attach a % risk premium where necessary) to see if and how feasible REWARD compares to RISK.(again, this is a VALUE INVESTING approach)

Ask urself; How has the race btw RISK and REWARD faired?(MoS from RR peg in view)
Assuming I decide to detach future CF and attach zero growth margin, how will both entities relate to each other?(quest for near term value/return in view)
Finally, how does the drive for VALUE benchmarked against RISK relate to EXPECTED RETURN?

Hint; Can u use a valuation model that can factor in the worries in receivables(low receivable turnover), low Cash position, debt position and all liabilities... but imploys an approach that discounts a % proportion of all lines in lieu of future risk.
Perhaps when u do that, u would see that today's YtD low price of 51k might well be a great bargain irrespective of any and all worries.
That point when RISK makes a mockery of REWARD !!(be the contrarian)
Maybe... just maybe...

cc: @Kaksio and all those who sent me private mails for my view on TRANSCORP.

Disclosure: TRANSCORP is currently not a part of our portfolios. ...just putting out a perspective for those who might wish to consider it in line with their investment objective.
Disclaimer: NOT to be infered to as any sought of recommendation.

My advise? Pls follow ur instinct.

Ekuu Mkt o

Umargarr:
Evening gurus of the house, please what is Wapco's fair price and what do you advice as a reasonable entry price.
RabbiDoracle,
Mcy56,
OGG,
Oga Emma
Tvegas
Fxuser,
Currentprice
BullBearMkt and
Please help a friend in need, I appreciate.

investors doesn't profit on company past growth investors are worry about wapco future growth, as it stand below 10 @ 9% at the moment while BUA is above 10% and DC above 20%

although am still yet to understand how wapco Q2 comes better than last year Q2 despite lock down btw march to june

not withstanding based on latest report, wapco fp stand @N18. it could move to close N40 if the current result is real and they can repeat same result at the 2nd part of the year or stay below 15 if they disappoint at year end

@ current price wapco is a buy. the more the price fall the more attractive it is

currentprice:


investors doesn't profit on company past growth investors are worry about wapco future growth, as it stand below 10 @ 9% at the moment while BUA is above 10% and DC above 20%

although am still yet to understand how wapco Q2 comes better than last year Q2 despite lock down btw match to june

not withstanding based on latest report, wapco fp stand @N18. it could move to close N40 if the current result is real and they can repeat same result at the 2nd part of the year.

@ current price wapco is a buy. the more the price fall the more attractive it is

We keep buying as prices come down....

currentprice:


investors doesn't profit on company past growth investors are worry about wapco future growth, as it stand below 10 @ 9% at the moment while BUA is above 10% and DC above 20%

although am still yet to understand how wapco Q2 comes better than last year Q2 despite lock down btw march to june

not withstanding based on latest report, wapco fp stand @N18. it could move to close N40 if the current result is real and they can repeat same result at the 2nd part of the year or stay below 15 if they disappoint at year end

@ current price wapco is a buy. the more the price fall the more attractive it is

An assets growth indicators(NPM, OCF margin, EBITDA margin, PEG, ROE, EM, RoIC, AER, CGPR etc) does not tell the whole story bro !!
WAPCO @ the current mkt price is even better off than the 2 other coys u mentioned in many of those indicators. ...particularly BUA.

That coy is a giveaway at the present mkt peg !!
Sincerely, ur FVE of N18 is to say the least quite conservative.

Btw, on why their H1 report came better than expected, i'll suggest u do an in-depth review of the coys statement of CF and observe how the Nos reflected in their BS.
...in between, the NTS will do u some good.

Again, WAPCO is a strong BUY.
...HOLD !!

Regards

ukay2:




We keep buying as prices come down....

Team average down

onegentleguy:


An assets growth indicators(NPM, OCF margin, EBITDA margin, PEG, ROE, EM, RoIC, AER, CGPR etc) does not tell the whole story bro !!
WAPCO @ the current mkt price is even better off than the 2 other coys u mentioned in many of those indicators. ...particularly BUA.

That coy is a giveaway at the present mkt peg !!
Sincerely ur FVE of N18 is to say the least quite conservative.

Btw, on why their H1 report came better than expected, i'll suggest u do an in-depth review of the coys statement of CF and observe how the Nos reflected in their BS.
...in between, the NTS will do u some good.

Again, WAPCO is a strong BUY.
...HOLD !!

Regards

Rightly said Sir....

emmanuelewumi:



Team average down

Loooooool

.....To see the end of the well....

emmanuelewumi:



Team average down

Loooooool

.....To see the end of the well....

Mcy56:

No vex.

This is so good to read, you earn my respect with this.

Mcy56:

Lol. Hope you're good sir.

We are good Madam.

Waiting for UGAZ Q2 reports

ukay2:


We are good Madam.

Waiting for UGAZ Q2 reports

The CBN is delaying granting approval. Emefiele is just a useless guy all round.