afrodoc2:


I am no expert but in my humble opinion just being a tech stock is not enough to sustain such share value.

TSLA had better come good on its promise and either crack time travel, space travel or do some other revolutionary stuff.

If they do they soar into orbit literally and figuratively. If they don’t many people will shed sorrow, tears, and blood.

Kimbeast:

I will advise you to cash out half of it. Use it all to buy high performance index funds, don't look at it again until you're 50 or after a long time. At a 10% avg annual ROI, you'll have close to $8,000,000 if not more with no subsequent investments.

User09:


While I agree it's significantly overvalued at current levels, I really dont agree with a bust; maybe a convergence to a lower price level in the future

raumdeuter:


They are both useful but I dont know if Lampard is the person to use them

Werner was rejected by Bayern because he needs space to operate and Bayerns opponents dont give them space

Kai Harvetz is a 10 who would be very useful to Bayern but he will need to wait till Muller retires

So he is in Chelsea gaining match practise for 3-5yrs until Muller fades and we will bring back Harvetz if he develops properly

User09:
Of course.

The age long bias of Value Investors towards the Tech Sector

Still waiting for the bubble to burst on Facebook, Apple and co

Ibime:


Apple PE Ratio is 40, in line with market average. They are actually a cash business, and their market cap is only 3 times their net asset value, a lot of which is held in raw cash.

Facebook PE Ratio is 30, lower than market average. They are now a mature business, but also fit in with your theory of exponential growth from the power of networks (tech stocks). Their price to book ratio is 6.5

The Tech stock analogy is used too literally with Tesla. They ultimately rely on car sales just like Apple rely on phone sales. They are a sales business with PE ratio of 1,700 and price to book ratio of 48.

We are not talking explosive network-driven tech here but physical sales of cars which currently is 500,000 cars for Tesla. If you combine Toyota, VW, BMW, Ford, Honda, GM, Chrysler, Peugeot, Nissan, Hyundai together, their valuation is not up to Tesla for essentially the same business of buying and selling cars which all of them do exponentially more than Tesla. In 20 years time, Tesla must be able to sell more cars than all of them combined to keep up this valuation. Will Tesla continue to have such a superior advantage in technology over all car makers in that period to justify such valuation. The Chinese car maker NIO has been boosting my portfolio this week simply on the premise that they have comparable technology to Tesla, but they go one further in that their batteries are detachable and you can swap your batteries for fully charged batteries at designated swapping points instead of waiting to recharge. NIO is now worth double GMs value just because of this. So you see, Tesla can easily be disrupted. Tesla is just the WeWork of the car industry for now. Companies with 10 times more leased square footage were wondering why WeWork had 10 times their valuation, until kasala burst for WeWork.

User09:


Not exactly the same; More structural in the case of Tsla.

We are in unison in terms of it being overvalued, not on the bust premise though.

Quick question - Why not short them, U seem really convinced

Ibime:


Apple PE Ratio is 40, in line with market average. They are actually a cash business, and their market cap is only 3 times their net asset value, a lot of which is held in raw cash.

Facebook PE Ratio is 30, lower than market average. They are now a mature business, but also fit in with your theory of exponential growth from the power of networks (tech stocks). Their price to book ratio is 6.5

The Tech stock analogy is used too literally with Tesla. They ultimately rely on car sales just like Apple rely on phone sales. They are a sales business with PE ratio of 1,700 and price to book ratio of 48.

We are not talking explosive network-driven tech here but physical sales of cars which currently is 500,000 cars for Tesla. If you combine Toyota, VW, BMW, Ford, Honda, GM, Chrysler, Peugeot, Nissan, Hyundai together, their valuation is not up to Tesla for essentially the same business of buying and selling cars which all of them do exponentially more than Tesla. In 20 years time, Tesla must be able to sell more cars than all of them combined to keep up this valuation. Will Tesla continue to have such a superior advantage in technology over all car makers in that period to justify such valuation. The Chinese car maker NIO has been boosting my portfolio this week simply on the premise that they have comparable technology to Tesla, but they go one further in that their batteries are detachable and you can swap your batteries for fully charged batteries at designated swapping points instead of waiting to recharge. NIO is now worth double GMs value just because of this. So you see, Tesla can easily be disrupted. Tesla is just the WeWork of the car industry for now. Companies with 10 times more leased square footage were wondering why WeWork had 10 times their valuation, until kasala burst for WeWork.

nihilistjnr:


I'm convinced 2021 is the year to cash out on savvy investment. Covid is such a huge opportunity.

It's everything that is going up, real estate, crypto, stocks. Everything.

That same last week, I say make I just even test small change in stocks at random, and I'm 5% up....in a few days!

I'm hearing that bank of England is even preparing to roll out negative interest rates, and rishi sunak is pumping another 4 Billi in grants before April gaan..

Everybody is going to just hang their spare cash somewhere at least till summer, maybe even to the end of the year.

Griffon:
This life no balance at all. Villa too dey rest first eleven against Liverpool? Wetin monkey no go see for tree

Ibime:



Yes, I'm with you on that to a certain extent because Biden has promised to continue pumping liquidity so the train ride will continue deep into this year I think. However to tackle 2021 requires diversity across different holdings as individual stocks can go up or down 10% in a day, but generally on a bull run. This requires strong vigilance of constantly checking your portfolio on almost a constant basis which casual investors like us will not have time for. My approach is to put half my investment in fund managers in êtoro who can constantly check price swings and close positions for me while I just check my balance once a day and it's very stress free. They are up 2% for me just since start of January which is just one week. Anything above 10% for the year, I'll be happy with but I think they can do 40-80% for me in an expected bull market.

The other half, I keep in Kōinbaße for high risk crypto run which I'm still waiting to correct itself. I probably missed a chance and should have stayed in as I clocked in Saturday and clocked out Sunday but that one requires a lot of constant checking which I don't have time for, so I'll just chill till I see a more palatable entry point at which I can just fire and forget without constant checking.

Ibime:


We are not talking explosive network-driven tech here but physical sales of cars which currently is 500,000 cars for Tesla. If you combine Toyota, VW, BMW, Ford, Honda, GM, Chrysler, Peugeot, Nissan, Hyundai together, their valuation is not up to Tesla for essentially the same business of buying and selling cars which all of them do exponentially more than Tesla. In 20 years time, Tesla must be able to sell more cars than all of them combined to keep up this valuation. Will Tesla continue to have such a superior advantage in technology over all car makers in that period to justify such valuation. The Chinese car maker NIO has been boosting my portfolio this week simply on the premise that they have comparable technology to Tesla, but they go one further in that their batteries are detachable and you can swap your batteries for fully charged batteries at designated swapping points instead of waiting to recharge. NIO is now worth double GMs value just because of this. So you see, Tesla can easily be disrupted. Tesla is just the WeWork of the car industry for now. Companies with 10 times more leased square footage were wondering why WeWork had 10 times their valuation, until kasala burst for WeWork.

Ibime:


Apple PE Ratio is 40, in line with market average. They are actually a cash business, and their market cap is only 3 times their net asset value, a lot of which is held in raw cash.

Facebook PE Ratio is 30, lower than market average. They are now a mature business, but also fit in with your theory of exponential growth from the power of networks (tech stocks). Their price to book ratio is 6.5

The Tech stock analogy is used too literally with Tesla. They ultimately rely on car sales just like Apple rely on phone sales. They are a sales business with PE ratio of 1,700 and price to book ratio of 48.

We are not talking explosive network-driven tech here but physical sales of cars which currently is 500,000 cars for Tesla. If you combine Toyota, VW, BMW, Ford, Honda, GM, Chrysler, Peugeot, Nissan, Hyundai together, their valuation is not up to Tesla for essentially the same business of buying and selling cars which all of them do exponentially more than Tesla. In 20 years time, Tesla must be able to sell more cars than all of them combined to keep up this valuation. Will Tesla continue to have such a superior advantage in technology over all car makers in that period to justify such valuation. The Chinese car maker NIO has been boosting my portfolio this week simply on the premise that they have comparable technology to Tesla, but they go one further in that their batteries are detachable and you can swap your batteries for fully charged batteries at designated swapping points instead of waiting to recharge. NIO is now worth double GMs value just because of this. So you see, Tesla can easily be disrupted. Tesla is just the WeWork of the car industry for now. Companies with 10 times more leased square footage were wondering why WeWork had 10 times their valuation, until kasala burst for WeWork.

Kimbeast:
Just saw a stat that says since United Appointed Solskjaer as manager in December 2018 they have been awarded 42penalities in all competition. 42pks in 115games. That's just insane.

iamJ:
read up on companies properly, tesla isn't just a car company, it's a conglomerate of different small businesses that feed off the car business, they even have more models in the works, speedster is coming, on battery day elon talked about a new battery that they will be designing and how they are going to vertical integrate the production, Cyber truck, even the $25,000 tesla that holy grail car that will anilate combustion engine industry completely

They have charging stations that they make money off, guy telsa is still undervalued in my opinion, the growth of that company especially with musk as its head is exponential

Space X is another monster that might go public in the future, if musk separates starlink from space X, space X will still be worth at least 200billion, if starship works, multiply that by 5

I follow elon and all his businesses, find the guy fascinating.

iamJ:
read up on companies properly, tesla isn't just a car company, it's a conglomerate of different small businesses that feed off the car business, they even have more models in the works, speedster is coming, on battery day elon talked about a new battery that they will be designing and how they are going to vertical integrate the production, Cyber truck, even the $25,000 tesla that holy grail car that will anilate combustion engine industry completely

They have charging stations that they make money off, guy telsa is still undervalued in my opinion, the growth of that company especially with musk as its head is exponential

Space X is another monster that might go public in the future, if musk separates starlink from space X, space X will still be worth at least 200billion, if starship works, multiply that by 5

I follow elon and all his businesses, find the guy fascinating.

Unlimited22:

Tesla are actually making and selling cars.

Wework were a real estate company masquerading as a tech company, being fed financial cocaine by Masa Son.

Look at IWG, a real estate landlord who presented itself as such. Valued highly, profitable, and isn't going under today even with the pandemic.

This comparison seems like apples and oranges.

Tesla stock might be overvalued. Even I think so.
But to say they're the new wework is overreaching a tad.

Ibime:



WeWork were actually leasing office space. So the comparison between both is in their overvaluation. Is BMW a tech company?

Unlimited22:

We're saying the same thing. Wework were a landlord masquerading as a tech company, bamboozling investors with buzzwords and having a greedy idiot as a CEO.

Tesla, on the other hand, actually have a product that people want to buy. And they are working on growing and monetizing their Network of charging stations for other EVs, which is why they want an industry standard charger across board. That will give them a signifucant first mover's advantage.

Plus the work going on, on hydrogen fuel cell technology.

IWG are a landlord too with a billion dollar valuation, and they are PROFITABLE.

Tesla's valuation is excessive and it will definitely ride a few lows, but their tech can actually carry them to even more highs. It's not just cars.

Wework, on the other hand, sold a dream and had a cash injunction that made those valuation ridiculous.

Unlimited22:

We're saying the same thing. Wework were a landlord masquerading as a tech company, bamboozling investors with buzzwords and having a greedy idiot as a CEO.

Tesla, on the other hand, actually have a product that people want to buy. And they are working on growing and monetizing their Network of charging stations for other EVs, which is why they want an industry standard charger across board. That will give them a signifucant first mover's advantage.

Plus the work going on, on hydrogen fuel cell technology.

IWG are a landlord too with a billion dollar valuation, and they are PROFITABLE.

Tesla's valuation is excessive and it will definitely ride a few lows, but their tech can actually carry them to even more highs. It's not just cars.

Wework, on the other hand, sold a dream and had a cash injunction that made those valuation ridiculous.

Ibime:


I'm not sure it's about riding a few lows. If Tesla valuation was 1/10th it's current value, you could say "Yes I believe they will be worth that in the future" with their technological superiority.

By that I mean, they could be worth $80bln if they actualise their potential and take a good fraction of the market. They are currently worth $800bln. BMW, GM are worth $40-$50bln. So you see, they are looking Tesla like "na only you waka come?" just like how IWG was looking WeWork.

Unlimited22:

Na so Myspace bin dey look Facebook. Na so Yahoo bin look Google too.

These disruptions happen. Tesla moved early.

Ibime:


These are all power of network companies whose value is derived from their number of users. Just like tiktok can overtake Badoo in ten days, it's to be expected. Besides Google and Facebook got their PE Ratio to a comparable value against the rest of the market within 5 years of listing. How long are we giving Tesla?

Tesla on the other hand derives it's value from sale of discrete units of product so we have to tie it's valuation to that and the future prospect of sales, not some network growth theory. European, Chinese and Japanese car makers will catch up and will get support from their Govts to do so, both in terms of subsidies, tax breaks and technology sharing, while European car users are often fiercely loyal and won't easily dump their national car companies for Tesla. Regulatory ban on petrol and diesel car sales does not come into force in the EU until 2040 and believe you me, they will get their companies ready for it, not just hand over the market to Tesla. Tesla valuation is driven by a dream 20 years from enforcement that requires them to own like 50% of market share. That's impossible.

Unlimited22:

We're saying the same thing. Wework were a landlord masquerading as a tech company, bamboozling investors with buzzwords and having a greedy idiot as a CEO.

Tesla, on the other hand, actually have a product that people want to buy. And they are working on growing and monetizing their Network of charging stations for other EVs, which is why they want an industry standard charger across board. That will give them a signifucant first mover's advantage.

Plus the work going on, on hydrogen fuel cell technology.

IWG are a landlord too with a billion dollar valuation, and they are PROFITABLE.

Tesla's valuation is excessive and it will definitely ride a few lows, but their tech can actually carry them to even more highs. It's not just cars

Wework, on the other hand, sold a dream and had a cash injunction that made those valuation ridiculous.

Ibime:


I'm not sure it's about riding a few lows. If Tesla valuation was 1/10th it's current value, you could say "Yes I believe they will be worth that in the future" with their technological superiority.

By that I mean, they could be worth $80bln if they actualise their potential and take a good fraction of the market. They are currently worth $800bln. BMW, GM are worth $40-$50bln. So you see, they are looking Tesla like "na only you waka come?" just like how IWG was looking WeWork.

nitrogen:


I agree with you that Tesla has products (aside cars) for customers. Most solar+storage developers like Tesla battery packs, most municipals prefer to have Tesla charging stations (to enable them achieve their smart city goals).

Elon has got big dreams, and he is an execution guy. That is what people are buying. Investors believe that he can achieve the other big stuffs he has in his pipeline because there is low execution risk. Ambition and execution ability are very important.

My fear is that Elon is going to break the conglomerate into several public companies. Check out Brookfield. Conglomerates typically trade at discounts, so he might want to have the companies listed. Of course, it will affect those currently invested in the holding company, except there will be some sort of compensation.

iamJ:
they are the leaders today in electric cars manufacturing and the other brands are decades behind them


Also the world is slowly phasing out combustion engine, tesla is still going to grow and explode like amazon did, they will dominate that market for a very long time

Also they have vertically integrated most of the component manufacturing, they not only own the patent to important future technologies but they are the leading force like apple did with phones


People like Micheal burry that are shorting telsa are going to lose hard, if things continue at current pace, they will not only achieve that possibility of a $25,000 car but they will be able to handle the demand, that is the day engine combustion death stopwatch will begin

Energy density for batteries are improving, it will soon catch up with fuel and then it's a matter of when not if

Electric cars are the future and one company has vertically integrated that future today

Underate Tesla at your own peril

Ibime:


These are all power of network companies whose value is derived from their number of users. Just like tiktok can overtake Badoo in ten days, it's to be expected. Besides Google and Facebook got their PE Ratio to a comparable value against the rest of the market within 5 years of listing. How long are we giving Tesla?

Tesla on the other hand derives it's value from sale of discrete units of product so we have to tie it's valuation to that and the future prospect of sales, not some network growth theory. European, Chinese and Japanese car makers will catch up and will get support from their Govts to do so, both in terms of subsidies, tax breaks and technology sharing, while European car users are often fiercely loyal and won't easily dump their national car companies for Tesla. Regulatory ban on petrol and diesel car sales does not come into force in the EU until 2040 and believe you me, they will get their companies ready for it, not just hand over the market to Tesla. Tesla valuation is driven by a dream 20 years from enforcement that requires them to own like 50% of market share. That's impossible.