With his recent visits to northern communities, it appears that Peter Obi, the 2023 presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), has begun laying the groundwork for a potential run in the 2027 presidential race even before the starting signal is sounded.

After the Ramadan began in March, Obi visited numerous mosques in northern Muslim communities in Nasarawa, Niger, Kebbi, Bauchi, Gombe, Sokoto and Kaduna states before the fasting period concluded. In the course of the tour, the former Anambra State governor commissioned multi-million naira boreholes in some of these states, making political observers reason that the LP chieftain has started a mission to boost his popularity among Muslim voters ahead of the 2027 elections.

But Obi’s visit to these northern states is coming at a time his party is embroiled in a series of leadership crises.

Recall that prior to the 2023 election, the presidential candidate of the LP, who defected from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), enjoyed massive support among urban youths. But he failed to make inroads into the Muslim majority states in the North, as the results of the election announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) indicated.

The Guardian investigation revealed that lack of votes in the North highly affected his chance to emerge as the winner of the fiercely contested election. In the 2023 presidential poll, Obi won in 11 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Most of these states are in Southern Nigeria. He won in Enugu, Lagos, Nasarawa, Delta, Imo, Ebonyi, Anambra, Abia, Plateau, Edo, Cross River and FCT.

Although he came third in the election based on INEC’s official results, he filed a case at the Presidential Election Petition Court (PEPT) in Abuja to challenge President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s victory. In the petition, which he filed alongside his party, he alleged that the poll was marred by various forms of corrupt practices such as over-voting, votes suppression and non-compliance with the provision of the Electoral Act in various states.

He disputed the results announced by INEC in Rivers, Lagos, Taraba, Benue, Adamawa, Imo, Bauchi, Borno, Kaduna, Plateau, Ekiti, Oyo, Ondo, Osun, Kano, Katsina, Kwara, Gombe, Yobe and Niger states.

He lost his case at both the PEPT and the Supreme Court. But analysts observed that the former governor has established the viability of a third-party candidacy, something that the entrenchment of the two strong parties — the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the PDP — had made highly unlikely. But what factors led to Obi’s defeat at the poll even though he had garnered a cult-like followership among the youth?

[b]Judging from the pattern of the presidential results, it was clear that he performed poorly in core Muslim states in the North. According to the results announced by INEC, President Tinubu scored 8,794,726 votes. His closest rival, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP scored 6,984,520 votes to emerge second in the election. Obi got a total of 6,101,533 votes while Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) came fourth with 1,496,687 votes.

In terms of regional spread, the Northwest had the highest number of votes with about 6.6 million votes, followed by the North-central with above 4.5 million votes. The South-west, with about 4.25 million votes, placed third while the North-east followed with about 3.4 million votes. The South-south had 2.85 million while the South-east had 2.2 million votes.

Obi won two regions (South-east and South-south) while PDP’s Atiku scored more votes in only one region (Northeast). Obi trailed Tinubu in the Northcentral while Atiku came second in the South-west and North-west. Overall, Tinubu scored 37 per cent of votes in the elections. His main challenger, Atiku, got 29 per cent of the votes while Obi scored 25 per cent.
[/b]
Interestingly, out of 10 million votes cast in the core Muslim states of North West and North East, Obi merely garnered 665,289, a paltry 6.7 per cent, leaving Tinubu and Atiku to take a large chunk of the votes. Thus, his victory in the South South and South East couldn’t propel him to clinch the Presidency.

Pundits reason that his campaign team has gone back to the drawing table, which is evident from his recent visits and romance with the northern communities.

In addition, there are many who think that Obi’s choice of Datti Baba Ahmed from Kaduna State was not considered strong enough to attract critical votes from the North during the election.

Picking Baba-Ahmed did not add much to Obi’s electoral weight judging by the results. For instance, Baba-Ahmed lost his polling unit in Tudun Wada, Zaria Local Council of Kaduna State to Atiku, who scored 102 votes. Tinubu came second with 98 votes while Obi got 54 votes. Kwankwaso secured 11 votes. In his entire council area, Baba-Ahmed delivered less than 4,000 votes, compared to Atiku’s 60,000 and Tinubu’s 40,000.

While some political observers believe that Baba-Ahmed failed to deliver a reasonable amount of votes to Obi in the North, there are those who think that Obi’s itinerary during the presidential campaign did not quite feature so much of the core North.

To them, the former Anambra governor concentrated on the South with occasional forays into the North Central Zone.

However, while speaking during a live interview programme before the presidential election, a former Governor of Kano State and presidential candidate of the NNPP, Kwankwaso, had revealed that northerners won’t vote for the candidate of the LP due to the secession agitation in the South-east. According to Kwankwaso, the northern electorate believes in one Nigeria and would always vote for northern presidential candidates.

But analysts believe that the reason touted by the former Kano governor could not be the major hindrance that affected Obi’s poor outing in the North.

Another issue, according to analysts, is that before the presidential election, there was a strong disaffection among the leading members of the LP in the North. Just days to the election, chairmen of the party across the 19 states in the region claimed that they were marginalised by the LP at the national level. A case in point was when the chairman of the party in Gombe,

Alhaji Sani Abdulsalam, on Wednesday, February 22, 2023, barely 24 hours to the poll, alleged that when it came to funds distribution to prepare for the election, he and his colleagues were nowhere. They had also threatened that Obi would lose the election if the needful was not done in time. Obi eventually lost and seems to be working very hard to overturn the result in future elections.

However, some northern stakeholders who spoke with The Guardian argued that the success of Obi’s outreach efforts hinges on several critical factors.

[b]Firstly, they observed that the perception of his actions among northern voters would play a crucial role. According to them, while genuine philanthropy can foster goodwill, there is a risk of his efforts being perceived as politically motivated.

Another factor is that Obi is likely to face stiff competition from rival candidates, especially the president, who though has not announced his intention to contest the 2027 elections, would also be vying for northern votes.

The stakeholders noted that to stand out, the former Anambra governor must differentiate himself through a substantive policy agenda that goes beyond donation of relief materials. They also noted that another issue would be his choice of running mate, saying that a formidable northern politician is critical for him to have a chance in core northern

Spokesperson of the Northern Elders Forum (NEF), Abdul-Azeez Suleiman, who said Obi’s current move and romance with the North is strategic, noted that it was unclear whether his interventions would actually resonate
with the people of the North and help him secure their support in the 2027 elections.[/b]

He posited that Obi’s donation of boreholes and other relief materials to northern communities was not enough to win over the hearts and minds of the people.

Suleiman said: “It must be noted that while making gestures such as donating boreholes and relief materials may attract some level of goodwill from the people, it is not enough to win over the hearts and minds of the North.

“The people of the North are looking for a leader who truly understands their needs and is committed to addressing the issues that are affecting them on a daily basis.
Simply throwing money at the problem or making token gestures will not be enough to earn their trust and support.

Noting that the North is not a monolithic entity that can be easily swayed by superficial gestures, Suleiman maintained that "state within the North has its own unique set of challenges and priorities, and any candidate seeking their support must be able to show that they have a deep understanding of these issues and a concrete plan to address them."

He added: "Simply making donations without addressing the underlying issues will not be enough to win over the people of the North.

"It is also important to consider the political landscape in the North and the sentiments of the people towards the current leadership. Many in the North are feeling disillusioned and frustrated with the state of affairs in the country and are looking for a leader who can bring about real change and progress. Peter Obi must be able to demonstrate that he is that leader and that he has a vision and a plan to address the issues that are of concern to the people of the North.

"Ultimately, the success of Peter Obi's interventions in the North will depend on the sincerity of his efforts and his ability to connect with the people on a deeper level. It is not enough to simply make gestures; he must show that he is genuinely committed to improving the lives of the people and addressing the challenges that they are facing. Only then will he be able to build a strong political base in the North ahead of the 2027 election.

Insisting that the the North made a mistake in voting Bola Tinubu to the presidency in 2023, Suleiman obseher that it is unlikely that they will repeat the same error in the future.

"They have learned from their past misstep and will strive to select a candidate who can unite the country and govern in the best interests of all Nigerians.
Moving forward, the North will be more cautious in selecting a candidate for the presidency.

"They will prioritize someone who is seen as more inclusive, less controversial, and more aligned with the interests of all regions of the country. The mistake of supporting Tinubu in 2023 has taught them the importance of unity and consensus in selecting a candidate for the highest office in the land", he added.

National Coordinator of Coalition of Northern Groups (CNG), Balarabe Rufai, described Obi's gestures as a welcome development that will close the doors for some political missionaries who want to term him as a regional politician, or somebody who is only interested in southern part of the country.

According to him, the move will give him an edge if he decides to contest the 2027 presidential election.

He, however, advised the former Anambra State governor to be circumspect while searching for a formidable northern politician to serve as his running mate.

Rufai stated: "Like I have been saying, Peter Obi has started very well from escaping to contest from a regional party, which is APGA, to a more national party, which is Labour party. That has made him a national figure instead for him to have contested in APGA, which is mostly a party aligned to only southeast.

"But unfortunately, he started well from the party level, but from the beginning of his campaign before the presidential poll, he inclined to going to churches and pastors who were advocating and campaigning for him.

"I think to my understanding that was what made him not to be accepted in the north, most especially muslim dominated areas, but with what he's doing now, I think that will give him an age when it comes to 2027 election.

"The move will make him more nigerian and be acceptable all over the country. But the most important thing for him to do is to look for a very strong candidate in the north to make him his vice president. By the time he is able to secure a very formidable, competent, accepted northern vice president, I think the story has come to an end.

"For example, if he agree with, let's say, somebody like Kwankwaso, a very formidable political leader in northern Nigeria on how they can work together, I think the rest will be history.

Secondly, it's very important for him to come out with a new message that will be acceptable by Nigerians. As it is, Nigerians are really in comatose. If anybody can come up with a very competent message that Nigerians will understand, I think the rest will be history"

President of Northern consensus movement, Dr. Awwal Aliyu Abdullahi, said although the LP Chieftain was making frantic attempt in contributing to the development of northern Nigeria, it won't guarantee him northern vote in 2027.

Abdullahi, who is also a security expert said the former Anambra State governor needed to do much more than just building boreholes.

"That will not give him votes. He needed to truly reach out to those that matters. When I say those that matters, I mean those at the grassroots, the elders, traditional institutions, political leaders, marketers, to youth and women leaders. This is a very big thing that he needed to do a lot of work on.

"He has to sit down, come up with a Marshall plan if at all what he is going is politically inclined. And you and I know that what he's doing is politically inclined. I'm also monitoring and I saw that is happening. In fact, one of the boys that is doing that for him is my boy. I don't want to mention such a thing because for so many reasons, .

"The main thing is that for him to achieve what he is intending to achieve, it has gone beyond just building boreholes. like I said, he needed a Marshall plan. He needed to do a very serious reach out. He needed to meet through political grassroots of the north or people that are truly at the grassroots and has a lot of reach out", he stated.

Abdullahi, however, expressed doubt that Obi's outreach to the north this time will be able to dislodge president Tinubu's political structure in the region.

He said: "To be honest, it will not be significant.First, the president has a political party that has ruled this country for nine years and that political party has every possible stretch and spread that a political party is supposed to have.

"And apart from that the president has also tried to build has built his own independent structure before that of the APC that he's working on or leading Nigeria with right now. So he's combining the advantage of f having a political party that has ruled for nine years and still ruling and that has a very widespread to the lowest of the low as far as Nigeria is concerned and two, having his own personal structure.

President, Supreme Council for Sharia in Nigeria (SCSN), AbdurRasheed Hadiyyatullah, has said the same faith ticket that brought President Bola Tinubu to power in the last General Elections has not made any positive change in the lives of Nigerians.

Hadiyyatullah, in an interview with journalists, yesterday, on the sidelines of a national conference organised by the council, said despite the enormous support received by the President during the poll, Nigerians have not enjoyed dividends of democracy since he came to power.

The event had the theme, “Matters Arising from 2023 Election and Associated Socio-Economic Challenges.”Recall that Tinubu, who was the presidential candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), adopted the Muslim-Muslim ticket when he picked Kashim Shettima as his running mate.

Hadiyyatullah, who said the reason many Nigerians supported the same faith ticket was to see how it could engender development in the country, maintained that nothing has been achieved for the past seven months.

He said: “Nigeria today is too bad. What we were buying at N200 before is N2000 now. We have scarcity of naira and unemployment is escalating. Nigerians are not enjoying the new government. I don’t want to go personal but the Sharia council helped the Muslim-Muslim ticket to be successful. We campaigned and supported this government until it came to being, but we are suffering.

“We are not making any progress. The reason for the Muslim-Muslim ticket was to progress, triumph, succeed and to have a good government, but we didn’t have anything.”

The cleric advised ministers, who are not ready to work for the good of the nation to resign and allow honest Nigerians take their place.

BUT in his remarks, former Governor of Zamfara State, Ahmed Sani Yerima, urged Nigerians to support the present administration, saying last week’s Supreme Court judgment was a testament to the character of the President.

According to him, the President refused to interfere in the judgment because he is a democrat.Yerima said: “Mr. President has said that he is going to undertake a reform of the electoral system. He is going to present a bill on that to the National Assembly because it is the work of the National Assembly to review the happenings in elections from time to time. They are from various constituencies and they know what has transpired.

doctore212:
I need olosho. Although na 2k I get for all night

A new report released on Tuesday by a frontline pro-democracy think tank, Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) has said insecurity in the Northwest may impact on the performance of the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Bola Tinubu in the 2023 elections.

The organisation, however, noted that the secessionist agitations in the southeast could reduce turnout, which may not favour either the Labour Party flag bearer Peter Obi or People’s Democratic Party candidate Abubakar Atiku.

The organisation which made the observation in a report titled ‘Nigeria’s presidential polls: A SWOT Analysis’ released in Abuja on Tuesday warned that rising insecurity, misinformation, money politics, religion and ethnic narratives may undermine the credibility of the 2023 election.

The report signed by the CDD director, Idayat Hassan, disclosed that the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, requires about 1.5 million election and security officials to successfully prosecute the elections.

The report said: ” With political campaigns looming in the coming weeks, key governance issues, such as insecurity would be a factor in the political calculations for the leading candidates as they traverse the country.

“The report noted in the northwest, the hot-button issue of security of lives and property would have an impact on the performance of the APC candidate, Tinubu.

“At the same time, the secessionist agitations in the southeast could reduce turnout, which may not favour either the Labour Party flag bearer Peter Obi or People’s Democratic Party candidate Abubakar Atiku”.


Noting that the 2023 general election is a significant logistical operation, CDD stressed that there will be significant logistic challenges in reaching the 176,846 polling units with election material.

The organisation noted that for such a far-reaching level of deployment to be successful, it would require the recruitment and training of close to 1.5 million poll and security officials.

This, the pro-democracy think tank pointed out requires the deployment of personnel, which number about four times the size of the entire Nigerian military.

It pointed out that the negative influence of religion, ethnicity and money politics could also undermine the credibility and acceptability of the elections, if not properly addressed.

According to the organisation, these divisive factors have already played a role in shaping the emergence of the four major party candidates running in the presidential election of next year.

Hassan, who rated the legal framework in place for the elections as robust and laudable, however, noted that the conduct of political actors would be critical if the benefits of such a framework were to be enjoyed across the board.

The report pointed out that the Electoral Act 2022 has elicited prospects that could redefine elections in Nigeria.

The report read: “Religion is likely to feature prominently in debates following the APC’s decision to contest the presidency with a Muslim-Muslim ticket. Renewed youth engagement in politics, a feature of the voter registration period, could also be transformative and favour Obi.

“Money will continue to play a huge role in determining who emerges the winner if the presidential primaries and recent gubernatorial elections offer any lesson. Finally, online campaigns will be more fiercely fought than ever, with attacks aimed at boosting candidates, attacking opponents and undermining INEC likely to be accentuated in social media in the run-up to, during and even after voting,” the report noted in part. CDD added that citizens’ access to electoral infrastructure would remain constant throughout the campaign and during the voting period, especially for those displaced internally by conflict.

“On the character and composition of INEC and the implications for the polls, the report recalls that INEC chairman, Prof Mahmud Yakubu, is the first Chair of the Election Management Body to be appointed for a second term in the country’s history.

The report observed the backlash generated by the replacement of 19 Resident Electoral Commissioners at the Commission, noting the perception that a number of the replacements are alleged to be partisan and lack integrity could impact the elections; however, CDD stressed that the 2022 Electoral Act may have introduced several changes that would continue to improve the credibility of elections.


It said that cases of the inconclusive election would be drastically reduced in 2023 as the new Electoral Act now defines overvoting in terms of accredited voters as against registered voters, adding that INEC would also be able to, according to the new act, review results signed under financial inducement or duress.

It notes: “Insecurity remains a critical issue, particularly in the northwest and southeast. Further challenging this operation are the prevailing structural, infrastructural, and cultural ecosystems in which the polls will take place.

“Prompt release of the entire INEC budget could help mitigate some of these. Finally, the role played by the security agencies, and subsequently by the judiciary, may be as crucial in determining the credibility of the election as that of the election management body.

“Nigeria is currently facing an epidemic of insecurity. The violence led by bandits, terrorists and secessionists has been recorded across its six geo-political zones, further dividing the country along ethnic, religious and political lines. Holding credible polls in this context that guarantees the security of voters and INEC personnel will be a major challenge. The ability of INEC to conduct continuous voter registration has already been questioned as insecurity has prevented the Commission from deploying to all wards across all electoral districts,” the report noted.

Former President Goodluck Jonathan yesterday passed a verdict that Nigeria’s democracy is gradually drifting towards dictatorship, insisting that all hands must be on deck to save the nation’s democracy.

Jonathan stated this at the 70th birthday celebration of Catholic Bishop of Sokoto Diocese, Matthew Hassan Kukah, held at Sheraton Hotel in Abuja. Dignitaries present at the occasion include Presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Tinubu; his running mate, Senator Kashim Shettima; Governor of Ekiti State, Kayode Fayemi; Governor of Plateau State, Simon Lalong and Secretary to Government of the Federation, Boss Mustapha.

Others are Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos, Governor Dapo Abiodun of Ogun, Governor Udom Emmanuel of Akwa Ibom, former governor of Imo State, Emeka Ihedioha; former governor of Bayelsa State, Seriake Dickson, among others.

Speaking on the theme of the event, ‘Nigeria’s Unfinished Greatness: Next Steps’, Jonathan urged Nigerians to remain vigilant and put all hands on deck to choose leaders that will take the nation to the Promised Land.

According to him, many Nigerians, especially the youth are becoming increasingly disillusioned about the nation’s politics and democracy. He, however, maintained that Nigeria must remain on the democratic path, noting that it is the only practical way of effectively managing “our diversity, developing sustainably and recording progress as a nation.”

He said: “The task before all of us is not to lower our guard, lest the democracy we cherish today, succumbs to threats and recedes into fascism tomorrow and there are signs already. Looking at the states and so on, we are derailing towards quasi fascist form of government but democracy is not only about winning elections alone, it is about accommodation. We as leaders at the centre and at the state level, especially at this time when elections are coming must accommodate different views.”
He charged the youths that have registered ahead of the 2023 elections to endeavour to walk their talk by making sure they come out to vote on election day.

The former Nigerian leader described Nigeria as a work in progress; adding that until that work is done, people like Bishop Kukah, who serve as the conscience of the nation, will continue to be around to constantly hold the mirror of the nation’s progression to its face.

Governor of Sokoto State, Tambuwal, described Kukah as man with undying love for country. Tambuwal, who chaired the occasion, reiterated the Catholic bishop’s unalterable belief in the possibility of a new Nigeria.

According to him, though Kukah’s critique of the country’s governance have been controversial, he (Kukah) believes Nigeria can and will come out of the woods of failed political leadership.

Represented by Rt. Hon. Emeka Ihedioha, the Sokoto governor said: “His (Kukah’s) writings over the years have become controversial and have drawn the ire of powers that be, but what is not in doubt is his undying love for Nigeria and Nigerians, and his belief in the possibility of a new Nigeria where justice and equity reigns.
Fayemi, on his part, said leaders in the country must ensure inclusion and justice for peace and development.

He said: “Nation building is work in progress. Unity is also not automatic it is the work we put into nation building that will determine how far we go. The root to nation building is peace and the root to peace is justice and inclusion and that is something we have battled with over the last 62 years.

“In Nigeria, we tend to focus more on development but we can’t give what we don’t have. Development will only take place where we have a nation. And to have a nation, we must have that elite consensus and I don’t think we have achieved that elite consensus yet.”

Cizarr:
This one no too good for their citizens

oyatainer:
Ballondor is much more prestigious than Fifa Best. Some people are not even aware of when Fifa best will be done.
By History and precedents, Ballondor is more recognised even by the onlookers.

Any narration contrary to this is futile for what is valued is valued no matter the tantrums.

Popular socialite and businessman, Obinna Iyiegbu, aka Obi Cubana, has been arrested by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC.

The Anambra-born tycoon who arrived the headquarters of the EFCC at Jabi Abuja at about noon on Monday November 1, 2021 is currently being interrogated by operatives of the Commission.

Though allegations against the socialite were sketchy as of press time, a source disclosed that his case borders on alleged money laundering and tax fraud.

Though many knew the name, Obi Cubana became a household name in Nigeria after the affluence that accompanied the burial of his mother earlier in the year.

When contacted, spokesman of the Commission, Wilson Uwujaren said he was yet to be briefed on the development