₦airaland Forum

Nigeria, which clocks in at 2 million barrels a day and is Africa’s largest exporter, clearly displays the damaging effects policy myopia can have on a resource rich country.

Beset by terrorism, both in the underdeveloped north where Boko Haram has managed to extend its control over a considerable chunk of territory, and in the oil-rich south, where insurgent militias have blackmailed government after government with attacks on key oil infrastructure, Nigeria has oftentimes seen just the flipside of its natural wealth. Worse, when oil was discovered in the 1950s, the country’s GDP/capita was equal to Indonesia. In 2000, Indonesia’s GDP/capita was actually twice as big as Nigeria’s – $377 versus $789. In spite of oil revenues estimated at some $350 billion over three decades, it seems that the average Nigerian was actually worse off in relative terms.

Nowadays, oil and natural gas account for 35% of Nigeria’s GDP, 80% of total government revenue and 90% of exports. The country’s 2015 budget balances out at $65 per barrel, a benchmark that looks unrealistic at this point, which has prompted the country’s finance minister to announce painful austerity measures. Even if the currency (the naira) lost 13% of its value last year and is expected to lose even more this year, slightly offsetting the fall in oil prices, the budgetary math simply does not add up. Nigeria ‘s finances are also in a vulnerable state. Unlike other resource-rich countries, its oil fund shrunk to just $4 billion in 2014 – a paltry figure for a $550 billion economy.

The spell of oil has transfixed the leaders and the rebels of this country alike. For the past two decades, presidential elections have been held in a general atmosphere of horse-trading, with the central government paying off the southern rebels in exchange for promises they will not sabotage its pipelines and refineries. A Presidential Amnesty Program, which pays monthly stipends to ex-militants, has been in place since 2010, after a series of debilitating attacks on Nigeria’s oil infrastructure.

But Nigeria still has much untapped economic potential. All 36 states in the country can boast at least three mineral resources, ranging from iron-ore to gold to rock salt. Under the current administration, the GDP expanded and overtook South Africa as the continent’s largest economy, powered in part by a sprawling services sector, which captured a share of 51% of the economy (up from 26%). The government has also put in place an ambitious agricultural policy that seeks to transform Nigeria into one of the world’s biggest rice producers. Taken together, these policies show that the country has enough assets to replace declining oil revenues.

Unfortunately, the country is bound to experience new episodes of political and social instability this year, against the backdrop of the February presidential elections. The two contenders, incumbent Goodluck Jonathan and opposition figure Muhammadu Buhari, a former military strongman from the 1980s, will square off on February 14. The latter is a contested figure in Nigeria’s history – from his commitment to Sharia law to his questionable ties with Boko Haram insurgents, who once named him as trusted mediator, to his flabbergasting electoral promise that he will stabilize world oil prices. The outcome of the election will be a litmus test for Nigeria’s democratic future.

The case for Nigeria to move away from its reliance on oil is quite compelling, as the country[b] is almost a textbook case of the Dutch disease[/b], coupled with oil-fueled political instability. It just needs the political will to see through structural reforms. Falling oil prices can do just that.

Dutch disease

The Dutch disease refers to the problems associated with a rapid increase in the production of raw materials causing a decline in other sectors of the economy. When the raw materials run out, the economy can be in a worse position than before.


If a country discovers substantial amounts of oil, gas or other natural commodity, it will begin to export these goods causing a substantial increase in GDP; this will improve tax revenues, improve the current account and create employment opportunities. But, often countries who discovered oil have gained much less than you might expect.

These are the likely economic effects of discovery oil / gas.

1. Appreciation in currency. Due to the discovery of oil and increase in exports, the country will see an appreciation in the exchange rate. This is because higher demand for exports lead to increased demand for Sterling. For example, in the late 1970s, the UK saw a rapid appreciation in Sterling after the discovery of North Sea oil.

2. Decline in competitiveness. The problem of this appreciation in the exchange rate is that other trade-able sectors of the economy will become uncompetitive. Manufacturing industries will see a substantial fall in demand, due to the higher exchange rate. Therefore, the economy will shift from manufacturing towards the primary sector. In the early 1980s, UK manufacturing output fell significantly as a result of the appreciation in the Pound.

3. Growth in luxury imports. Higher output of oil will enable those who benefit to spend on luxury goods and luxury services. These luxury goods tend to be imported meaning that domestic firms gain little benefit.

4. Growth in real wages. Due to the increased wealth and spending on services, there will be higher demand for service sector workers (waiters, hairdressers, chauffeurs e.t.c). This will cause rising real wages in the economy, causing another problem for manufacturing firms as they have to increase real wages to retain workers. This will further decrease competitiveness of manufacturing exports.

5. Indirect-deindustrialisation. With manufacturing becoming uncompetitive due to higher exchange rate and higher wages, output will fall, and there will be a decline in investment, leading to lower growth. These sectors will begin to lag behind other countries. It can be very difficult to catch up later.

5. Income inequality. Often the discovery of raw materials, such as oil benefits a relatively small percentage of the population. Those who own the oil fields can see huge wealth, but the benefits of oil and gas are often not equally distributed within society. Workers may benefit from rising real wages in the service sector, but the discovery of raw materials often creates a few billionaires, so the increase in GDP is often concentrated in the hands of a small number. In several developing economies, oil fields are developed by foreign multinationals, causing some of the wealth to be taken away from the country.

6. Tax revenue. High output of oil and gas can lead to substantial tax revenues for the government. The government has the ability to run a budget surplus and spend more on public services, such as infrastructure and education. But, the government will often cut other taxes and come to rely on oil tax revenues.

When the oil runs out

Many countries who produce raw materials may find the high output only lasts for a few years. But, when the oil runs out, the economy has been adversely affected and struggles to catch up where it left off.

Manufacturing export industries have shrunk and fallen behind. Because of declining output and investment, it can take many years for the exporting industries to catch up. Therefore, post oil economies can struggle with lower economic growth.

Current account deficit. With oil exports, countries can run a current account surplus, but when oil exports drop their old exporting industries have faded away so they are left with large current account deficits,

Falling tax revenue. With oil, governments find it easy to raise tax revenue. But, when oil revenues dry up, they need to raise taxes on income and spending which can lead to lower growth and lower living standards. Ambitious government spending patterns have to be curtailed.

Unemployment. With falling GDP, the demand for high end services will decline, causing unemployment amongst many service sector workers.

Examples

The term ‘Dutch disease’ was first coined by the Economist in 1977 to describe the decline in Netherlands manufacturing after the discovery of gas fields in the early 1960s. Many African countries have struggled to post rising living standards after the discovery of oil. The UK process of de-industrialisation was sped up by the discovery of North Sea oil and the appreciation in the Pound.

How to Prevent Dutch Disease

Limit the rise in the real exchange rate. For example, China limited it’s real exchange rate by purchasing US bonds to keep the value of the relatively Yuan lower.
Reduce foreign capital flows. If a country moved from a budget deficit to a budget surplus, it would attract less foreign investment to purchase the government bonds. Lower capital inflows would limit the rise in the exchange rate.
Spend proceeds of oil revenue on infrastructure and education. The government could earmark taxes from oil to be spent on improving the infrastructure of an economy – better public transport, better education, subsidies for investing in technologies with positive externalities. All these can help improve the competitiveness of manufacturing export industries and help them deal with higher wages and higher exchange rate.
Immigration. Many oil rich economies have encouraged immigration to provide service sector jobs, this keeps real wage growth down.
Sovereign wealth funds. A sovereign wealth fund is a government saving scheme, where income from oil revenues is not spent but saved to give a future income stream. E.g. Government pension fund in Norway.
Greater equality of distribution. This paper at the World Bank states that the ‘Dutch Disease’ effect is worse when wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few billionaires – because there is marked increase in luxury goods and luxury services. Greater income distribution enables a more diverse economy.
Higher tax on luxury services and luxury imports. This would prevent the economy becoming too skewed towards a luxury services which may not be sustainable in the long-term.

PERSON WEY DEY POSTRATE CAN STILL KILL YOU.


POSTRATE NA NOTHING

BushidoBlue:
[s][/s](BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)




http://edition.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1605/12/ampr.01.html



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20hkr7UYgM8

STORY!!! WHO ARE THE THEY aND WHY ARE THEY NOT PROSECUTED. can u imagine a president saying they

Mo st women need men for
1 logic - so.me women have a problem thinking rationally mostly emotionally.

2 money or someone to take care of there problems.

3 security. Most just need a bodyguard

4 leader.. the woman was designed to be a follower but as always not all are

5 spermatozoa- To metamorphosis her from girl to

mother


But remember that Adam was tricked / controlled by Eve and that has been the very foundation of man and woman.

Never underestimate them go ask Samson, Hercules etc

If u like sell akara for under bridge. Nigeria senator are the highest paid in the world and all they can implement is underage girl marriage.

Most Nigeria senator's are.theifs and Dino is one of them.


Can he declare his assets tomorrow and show where he got all d money from?

jobLESS FELLOWS. U FOR SHOW U AND UR BABE now

Shikena:
Looks like you have comprehension issues bros and you somehow managed to confuse that with wisdom. I never said Ooni's visit has anything to do with the issue of superiority. I see his visit as a departure from the cul-de-sac of superiority claims.
You made a stupid statement that the Alaafin and the Oyos are ignorant of history and now you are making stuffs up. Oyo history is clear that Oranmiyan is a direct offspring of Oduduwa. It is also clear in stating that the royalty belongs to Oranmiyan and that the Ooni is a priest not a royalty. This has been Oyo history for centuries. The arithmetic of the king of Ife being automatically superior because Oduduwa settled in and died in Ife is not a fact of history in Oyo Yoruba. Oyos have NEVER ever been subjects of any priest or Oba at Ife. It did not happen in the 15th or 18th century and it won't happen in 2016. That's where re-writing history from now till the end of time using today's mindset won't change anything. Let the Ooni concentrate on the development of his people and let the Alaafin do the same while they are still constitutionally recognized

The story of oyo and ife is like the story of a child becoming richer and more powerful than his father.

The first ooni was in ife and his grandson established alaafin in oyo. Oyo later became more powerful because of oranmiyan personality.

Read the history of the yorubas a book written in.the 1800 s by Rev Johnsons. Rev Johnson was an Abeokuta man

His current value is a 5mollion pounds. The guy Wan dey collect Aguero money.

Although he is at his peak now

Samakus:
_________________________________________________________

And so the fairytale meteoric rise of Leicester City FC in the English game finally and fittingly reached a glorious crescendo. Leicester are the new BPL champions! The players and coaches' names forever etched in Leicester City's folklore. What a story! What a history made! The city of Leicestershire has been added to the comity of English cities to witness the BPL trophy parade. Just quite amazing!

As we eulogize Leicester's remarkable and history making BPL success, it's important to reflect on the lessons that can and indeed, should be learned from this mega footballing story of 2016.

1. HARDWORK AND DETERMINATION PAYS:
Leicester City achieved this remarkable feat not by jugging around the pitch. Over the course of the campaign, players and the coaching staff put in a remarkable amount of hardwork and determination. Their never-say-die attitude is epitomized by Jamie Vardy, Ngolo Kante, Danny Drinkwater, Wes Morgan, to call but a few. Even in the face of popular pessimism about their ability to win BPL, the players remained undeterred, determined and positive, marrying hardwork with belief. That has paid off.

2. BE ORIGINAL AND CREATIVE:
Following Barcelona and Spain's successes in football, gained through paying huge attention to possession-based football, the footballing world set about copying the Barcelona model. Not Leicester! Instead, Ranieri developed his own model of ceding possession to the opponent while exploiting the opponent's flaws through a quick counter attacking play. It worked like magic and today, Leicester is on everyone's lips. Be original! Be creative! You must not go with the crowd to make it.

3. WORK UNDER THE RADAR, LET YOUR SUCCESSES DO THE TALKING:
While Arsene Wenger talked about Arsenal mental strength, Mourinho having a subtle fight with his players, Man.City flirting with the issue of having Pep Guardiola as coach, Leicester were quietly doing the job required of champions. Succinctly put, Leicester did their talking where it mattered - on the pitch and they now have their trophy taking for them. Work hard silently, let your successes talk for you.

4. BELIEVE YOU CAN MAKE IT EVEN WHEN OTHERS DOUBT YOU:
Leicester may have targeted survival over the BPL title at the beginning of the season but immediately they saw that they can win the title, they never stopped believing! The consensus among the footballing world, even as at February 2016, was that Leicester will falter along the way. Instead of allowing that popular doubt to derail their ambition, it spurred them on. When others doubt your ability to make it, believe in yourself and work towards proving your doubters wrong. He that believes, receives!

5. GOD-FACTOR (LUCK) IS EVERYTHING:
While Leicester worked hard, they were also lucky with injuries. While Man.City, Man. United, Arsenal, Liverpool and even Chelsea had key men injured over the course of the campaign, Leicester were extraordinarily lucky with injuries. Would Leicester have won the BPL without having the luxury of selecting Jamie Vardy, Ngolo Kante, Wes Morgan and Riyad Mahrez week-in week-out? The obvious answer is No! Definitely, Leicester players were not the only players in BPL working hard, but they were the ones whose calls were divinely answered.
Work hard but remember that the battle is not of the swift and the strong. It's not of he that willeth or of he that runneth but of God that showeth mercy. Put God first!

#Mr_Samakus#

OH SHUT UP EVERY BODY IS NOW FAMZING. WHO ARE THE CHAMPIONS OF NOIGEIRA?

TippyTop:
This was before Niger Delta Oil money rolled in, in few years Abuja people would also forget their city was built by our oil.

#ResourceControlNow

Olodo IMF and Paris Club loan. Also Lagos was already a booming port town even before oil was discovered in the late 50s.

Na oil money them take build Banana island or Eko Atlantic

dahaz:
pls this is for expirience and practical engrs.The height of an abandon warehouse is to be increased and the steel roof is to be replaced with a new one. In the absence of the as-built drawing, how do you evaluate if the foundation will be able to carry the additional loads and the new roof?

U will need to create drawings by hiring an architect or draft to make drawings of the existing structure in cad.
They shd get the existing dimensions and create a drawing.

No 2. You will need to hire a registered civil or structural engineer as a consultant to do the calculations and give u detailed scope of work

Fake account or.hacked.

Category1:
[size=13pt]i'm so angry that LAGOS wasn't a well planned city.
before the creation of Lagos, all these stuffs should have been jotted down...so pple ain't going to build houses illegally, and now that the Lagos state government is planning to demolish a whole 800 Houses(no be beans now) to make pple poor and homeless?

Haba!. Ambode needs to forget that bridge abeg, 800 houses ke?
How can the poor be getting poorer? This ain't possible. [/size]

Did they beg them to come to.lagos. and more are still coming better now than later

Muslim= Arab copy copy

Devaluation would only favor a country that manufacturers like China.

ireneony:
abeg make una give the guy lighter to smoke that mary j

As e de hot ontop this sun

If e good for your health take am..



By the way I don't see anything wrong in it.

The stupid camaraman is to blame for this.

Football watching and weed blend well a. That is standard

JingoOAU:
No be stainless, na frying pan

No be only stainless name aluminum or panda

Originality007:
Afeez Hanafi

A primary six pupil, Princess, has been allegedly raped by a commercial motorcyclist (okada rider) in a hotel on Yemi Aderemi Street, Igbede, in the Ajangbadi area of Lagos.

The name of the hotel was given as Julia Guest House.
PUNCH Metro learnt that the 40-year-old okada rider, Uche Imo, was arrested by the police from the Isokoko division, while the manager of the hotel, who was accused of aiding the act, was invited for interrogation.

It was gathered that Imo and the pupil were neighbours on Tijani Street, Ajangbadi, and he was employed by Princess’ mother to take her and her sister to school.

Imo, a father of five, was said to have lured the 13-year-old girl with cake into the hotel. He had reportedly raped her in the facility four different times.

Our correspondent learnt that in one of the instances, Princess declined going inside the hotel room with the suspect, but the manager, William, reportedly persuaded her.

The mother of the pupil said she knew about the ‘sexual relationship’ between her daughter and Imo on February 14, 2016, after he brought Princess and her sister back from an outing on that day.

She said, “Baba Joy (Imo) was my neighbour and was the one taking my children to school. I paid him N200 every day. On February 14, he came to me and said he wanted to take them out and I allowed him. He bought meat pie and ice cream for them. When they came back, Helen said I should ask her sister what happened between her and Baba Joy.

“I asked her, but she denied that anything happened between them. It was when I started beating her that she confessed that Baba Joy had sex with her, adding that it had been happening for long.”

Princess told the police that the Abia State-born suspect had been raping her since December 2015, adding that he usually gave her cake.

She said, “I am in primary six and live on the same street with Baba Joy. In December 2015, he took me to the hotel and had sex with me. I did not want to enter, but the hotel manager said I should. He had taken me there four times and he usually bought cake for me.”

Our correspondent learnt that Princess was taken to the Mirabel Centre, a human rights organisation, at the Lagos State University Teaching Hospital and the case was subsequently reported to the police.

The suspect, in his statement to the police, confessed to the crime, saying the hotel manager was aware of it.

“I am married with five children. My first child is in Senior Secondary School two. I lived at the back of Princess’ house before I parked out in January. I told her I liked her. Whenever she had a chance, she would call me from a business centre and I would pick her up where she was, take her to the hotel and have sex with her.

“There was a day I took her to the hotel and she did not want to enter. The manager pleaded with her on my behalf. I paid N500 for an hour,” he said.

The 55-year-old manager, who admitted that Imo was his customer, said he had warned him to stop bringing the minor to the hotel.

A police prosecutor, Sergeant Francisca Okere, brought Imo before an Apapa Magistrate’s Court on two counts bordering on rape.

The charges read in part, “That you, Uche Imo, on January 25, 2016, at about 5pm on Yemi Aderemi Street, Igbede, in the Ajangbadi, Lagos State, in the Apapa Magisterial District, did defile a 13-year-old girl, thereby committing an offence punishable under Section 317 of the Criminal Law of Lagos State, 2011.”

The defendant pleaded not guilty before the presiding magistrate, Mrs. A.O. Adegbite, and was granted bail in the sum of N200,000 with two sureties in like sum.

The case was adjourned till April 21, 2016.
http://www.punchng.com/motorcyclist-lures-rapes-pupil-in-hotel/

Meat pie and ice cream things. You u go fork primary school girl as an adult is.more.of mental cases.than.kongi.

simtosul:
Hmmm

why r u asking nursey sch question

MrAkias:
JEAN-KEVIN AUGUSTIN (18
years old) | Paris Saint-Germain
| 5 goals Na wa o.... they say dis guy is jst 18 yrs.... guys wats ur take on dis... is dis guy really 18yrs, abi na wetin...


[img]Jean-Kévin Augustin (born 16 June 1997) is a French footballer who currently plays as a striker for Ligue 1 side Paris Saint-Germain[/img]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-K%C3%A9vin_Augustin

.

THIS PPL AGE FASTER..AFRICANS AND CHINESE AGE SLOWER COMPARED TO PPL LIVING IN EUROPE AND AMERICA. THE ANSWER LIES IN THE FOOD.

SO YES HE CAN BE 18.

I HAVE SEEN 18 WITH WHITE HAIR BEFORE

Naijiant:
http://www.naijiant.com/articles/wole-soyinkas-woeful-silence/

Is he the only man in Nigeria he had contributed his quota . He doesn't need to say anything again as a living legend.
Why don't u ask u r grandparent to say something too after all Soyinka only had one mouth and brain

An Arab man is telling u u r brother is an infidel and u nod like agama. Continue oponus

The truth hurts that's y u ppl delete all the posts

Guseh:
The Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) , Sunday signed a $23bn (£16bn; 18bn euros) deal to build 3 new refineries and a petrochemical complex in Nigeria.

The project is expected to add 750,000 barrels per day of extra refining capacity as the NNPC hopes the construction of the new refineries will stem the flood of imported refined products into Nigeria. Nigeria is the world’s 12th-largest oil producer and the eighth-
largest oil exporter and it still imports roughly 85% of its fuel needs because of the disrepair and mismanagement of its four state-owned refineries.

According to the spokesperson of the NNPC, Shehu Ladan,”We are about to deepen the existing technical and commercial relationships between China and Nigeria through the signing of a memorandum of understanding,”

The three refineries will be built in Bayelsa, Kogi and Lagos states, while a location has to be confirmed for the petrochemicals complex.

The Nigerian government has said that foreign companies must invest in developing Nigeria’s infrastructure and economy first, before they can benefit from its oil and gas exports.

www.nigeriancurrent.com/2016/04/10/nigeria-and-china-sign-23bn-deal-for-three-refineries/

Will you invest in another mans country for profits or development.

China is looking for profit first as any right thinking people .

Nigeria keep fooling themself

[quot hae author=Demmzy15 post=44578197][/quote]Can an Arab man follow u r ancestors religon or.culture?

But u follow there culture makes u what?

We have some Europeans following African culture



Truth is bitter as yoruba will say otitokoro

[quote author=Demmzy15 post=44577860][/quote]An example of a brainwashed african who refuses to apply his brain.

Keep.knocking u r head on the ground and praying towards east .

Africa should be like the Asian countries of China Japan and the Koreans

Religiously neutral

That is how we would start to.become respected

Mohammed used to steal other ppls wife or kidnap girls and cover them with blanket. So they don't know.who is under blanket.

Islam is Arab imperalism and supremacy. Their objective is for their gain and pleasure.




The problem with Islam is the god demands for blood of its followers and more devilish obligation

The problem is a fellow African is telling u this Arab religion that u are following as a liberal african. E no make sense even satanic worship is better. But some Africans no want use their brain but regurgitate want they have been taught like cows or rams.

Why do african men choose submissiveness on d global.stage but we want to be doing king over women but when it's a fellow man from another race we become submissive to their.culture and ideas


But yet some ppls are adamant to follow there parents mistakes or ignorance.

The whole of the middle east where the real Islam is.practiced they are running away in their millions to Europe Africa etc.

Plus return Islam back to do sender in Saudi arabia. It's intention is to enslaven.

some of u are already enslaven by knocking u r head on the ground and praying towards their temple.

yet u r african culture tells u God is omnipresent.

knightsamsong:
this fraudster that took away the money of young nigerians for his scam football reality show some years ago...name for me one successful product of his past schemes, now hes coming to take our valueable land away.....he didnt even play for nigeria, he should go to england and ask for land.....................we dont need anyone who doesnt have the interest of the nigerian youth at heart to come fool us......................

Talkative if England ask u to come and represent them . tomorrow you will.deny Nigeria faster than Simon Peter.

nigerians r hypocrites

lebroske:
Great nairalanders, i know you people are exceptional in giving good advice to people because i have been following this tread for some time. Though i am new.
i am suspecting that my lovely wife is cheating on me. The reason is that, each time i want to go through her phone, she picks up a fight. Whenever i want to use it for something else, that would be the time she will want to use it. I feel she is hiding something from me but i really want to get an evidence so that i could confront her. Most of the time when she is chatting with someone on phone, she hides the conversation. i wonder why?
Pls great nairalanders, what do i do in this situation? I don't want to confront her yet because i don't hv a proof.
Please no insult. Thank you

Stitch in time save nine. Maybe she's talking to her old boyfriend- D original king of d zanga. . U na atall atall..I must marry.... no go kill urself...y u dey fear u r wife abi some thing else is involved