₦airaland Forum

In the space of two years, Nigeria’s state governments have witnessed one of the sharpest revenue expansions in recent history. The Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) allocations surged on the back of fuel subsidy removal, foreign exchange reforms and stronger oil receipts, pushing trillions of naira into subnational accounts.

Yet, as allocations climb to record levels, so too does the portion siphoned off for debt servicing, particularly foreign loans, while spending on healthcare and other human development priorities remains stubbornly low. The result is a widening gap between fiscal abundance and everyday reality in a country where poverty continues to rise.

A Growing Debt Burden in the Midst of Plenty
According to BudgIT’s State of States report 2025, states collectively spent N2.11 trillion on debt servicing in 2024, accounting for 26.45 percent of their cumulative expenditure. In other words, more than one-quarter of what states spent last year went to paying back creditors rather than building infrastructure, strengthening healthcare systems, or investing in education.

Total debt stock for 35 states rose by 6.87 percent, from N10.01 trillion in 2023 to N10.57 trillion in 2024. While domestic debt declined significantly by N1.99 trillion (35.98 percent) to N3.54 trillion, foreign debt edged upward by 1.66 percent, increasing from $4.50 billion to $4.58 billion.

The composition of that debt is even more revealing. Twenty-four states now have more than half of their debt denominated in US dollars. Kaduna leads with 97.39 percent of its debt in foreign currency, followed by Jigawa at 96.42 percent and Ondo at 90.04 percent. With exchange rate volatility persisting, such exposure heightens fiscal vulnerability.

Per capita debt also rose, from N40,469 in 2023 to N41,766 in 2024. Twelve states exceeded the national average, with Lagos topping the list at N166,253 per person.

Beyond formal debt stock, states are weighed down by legacy liabilities: contractor arrears of N434.87 billion; pension and gratuity arrears of N626.8 billion; salary and staff claims of N33.73 billion; judgment debts of N64.44 billion; and other liabilities totalling N79.91 billion. These obligations underscore that the fiscal stress goes deeper than headline borrowing figures.

Foreign Debt Service: A Growing Drain
The strain intensified in 2025. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics, based on FAAC figures, show that states paid N455.38 billion in foreign debt service in 2025, up from N362.08 billion in 2024.

In practical terms, a larger portion of FAAC inflows was deducted at source to service external loans before funds even reached state coffers.

Lagos recorded the highest foreign debt service deductions at N92.80 billion in 2025, up from N72.32 billion the previous year. Rivers followed with N48.58 billion, nearly doubling its 2024 figure. Kaduna ranked third at N47.93 billion, while Ogun and Cross River completed the top five.

Regionally, the South-West accounted for N162.77 billion, 35.74 percent of total foreign debt service in 2025. The South-South followed with N100.37 billion (22.04 percent), while the North-West recorded N81.97 billion (18 percent). The North Central posted the lowest at N27.65 billion.

Record Revenues, Limited Social Investment
The debt story becomes more striking when placed alongside the surge in FAAC allocations. According to data from the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI), total FAAC disbursements rose from N8.21 trillion in 2022 to N10.14 trillion in 2023, and then to N15.26 trillion in 2024, a 66.2 percent increase in just two years.

In 2025, FAAC reportedly disbursed about N33.27 trillion, nearly double the 2024 figure, buoyed by subsidy removal, FX reforms, and improved oil remittances.

But BudgIT’s 2025 report shows that human development remains under-prioritized. States spent an average of just N3,483 per person on healthcare in 2024. Not a single state reached N10,000 per capita in health spending.

Only Lagos, Bayelsa, Edo, Abia, Kwara, Niger and Delta exceeded N5,000 per capita. For a country battling rising disease burdens and fragile primary healthcare systems, the figure is telling.

Poverty Deepens Despite Fiscal Expansion
According to the World Bank’s estimates, poverty levels climbed to 61 percent in 2025, about 139 million Nigerians living on less than $3 per day, up from 129 million in 2024. PwC projects that the poverty rate could reach 62 percent in 2026, affecting roughly 141 million people. This trajectory suggests that increased public revenues have not translated into broad-based welfare gains.

Projects Over People
Public finance analysts argue that political incentives may partly explain the disconnect.

“Many governors prefer ribbon-cutting projects; roads, bridges, and flyovers, which are more politically visible than the long-term, invisible work of training teachers or stocking primary health centres with drugs,” Kabir Isah, an Abuja-based public affairs analyst, said in an earlier conversation with BusinessDay.

He noted that human capital investments take years to yield results. “Human capital development (education and health) takes a decade to show results. Because governors operate on four-year cycles, they often lack the incentive to invest in reforms that will only benefit their successors.”

For Vahyala Kwaga, BudgIT’s deputy country director, the responsibility does not lie solely with governors. Citizens must demand more. “Citizens should ensure that as we prepare for elections, they demand and insist on candidates that will act differently. Citizens should insist on political aspirants making credible commitments to how they will govern differently and accountably if they are elected.”

The Development Question
Nigeria’s states are not short of revenue in nominal terms. Nor are they short of borrowing.

The challenge lies in the intersection of rising debt service, currency risk, and spending patterns that favour visible infrastructure over long-term human capital development. With over a quarter of expenditures devoted to servicing debt and foreign obligations rising, the fiscal room for transformative social investment narrows.

As FAAC allocations reach historic highs, the central development question persists: can states convert revenue windfalls into measurable improvements in citizens’ welfare, or will mounting debt and political incentives continue to crowd out inclusive growth?

International football’s governing body, FIFA, enforces strict eligibility rules for players in World Cup qualifying matches.

When a team fields a player who should not have been eligible; due to suspension, nationality rules, or registration irregularities: FIFA can forfeit matches, deduct points, overturn results, and levy fines.

Below are several notable cases where these rules affected World Cup qualification campaigns.

Nigeria (2017) — Forfeited Match, Fine
During the 2018 FIFA World Cup qualifiers, Nigeria fielded defender Abdullahi Shehu in a match against Algeria despite him being ineligible due to an unserved suspension for accumulating yellow cards. FIFA ruled the match forfeit, awarding Algeria a 3–0 win, and fined Nigeria CHF 6,000. Nigeria’s qualification was not affected because they had already secured a spot before the ruling.

South Africa (2025) — Points Deduction and Forfeit
In the 2026 World Cup qualifiers, South Africa were found to have played midfielder Teboho Mokoena despite him being ineligible due to accumulated yellow cards.

FIFA forfeited the match they had won 2–0 over Lesotho, awarding Lesotho a 3–0 victory, and docked South Africa three points, along with a fine. This ruling had a major impact on the group standings and increased competition for the qualifying spots.

Burkina Faso (2012) — Forfeited Result, Point Loss
In the 2014 World Cup qualifiers, Burkina Faso fielded Hervé Zengue in a match against Congo despite questions over his eligibility (he lacked proper documentation). FIFA forfeited the match, awarding a 3–0 win to Congo, and deducted points, which hurt Burkina Faso’s chances in the qualifying group.

[b]Gabon (2014) — Match Overturned, Qualification Impact
Also during the 2014 World Cup qualifiers, Gabon had a match result overturned because they fielded an ineligible player. Football’s world governing body ruled Charly Moussono was ineligible because he represented Cameroon at the 2006 Beach Soccer World Cup. [/b]

FIFA awarded their opponents a 3–0 victory, which effectively damaged Gabon’s campaign and diminished their chances of advancing from the group stages.

Solomon Islands (2016) — Forfeit, Fine
FIFA sanctioned the Solomon Islands national team for fielding an ineligible player who should have been suspended due to accumulated cautions in a match against Tahiti during the 2018 World Cup qualifiers. The match was forfeited (3–0 loss) and the federation fined.

Ethiopia (2014) — Overturned Win
During the same African qualifying cycle, Ethiopia had a 3–0 victory overturned because they fielded Minyahil Teshome Beyene despite him being ineligible after receiving two bookings. The ruling reversed Ethiopia’s win and impacted their group position.

Togo (2013) — Forfeited Match
In another African qualifier, Togo had to forfeit a match they had originally won because they fielded Jacques Alexys Romao, who was ineligible due to card accumulation. That ruling undermined Togo’s progress in the qualification round.

Timor‑Leste (Various) — Barred from Qualifiers
While not a senior FIFA World Cup qualifying match, Timor‑Leste was found to have used a string of ineligible players based on falsified documentation in international competitions. FIFA barred them from some qualification tournaments, demonstrating how eligibility infractions can cross different competitions and affect qualification opportunities.

FIFA is set to deliver a crucial ruling on Monday, February 16, regarding Nigeria’s eligibility protest against DR Congo, with the Super Eagles’ hopes of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup hanging in the balance.

The Nigeria Football Federation (NFF) filed the formal complaint on December 15, 2025, alleging that six DR Congo players who featured in the November 2025 African playoff final were ineligible due to recent switches in international allegiance.

The match ended in heartbreak for Nigeria, as the Super Eagles lost 4–3 on penalties after a tense encounter, eliminating them from direct qualification and ending their campaign at that stage.

NFF General Secretary Dr. Mohammed Sanusi has voiced strong confidence in the federation’s case. “We have a good case. We do not venture into what would be an exercise in futility. As far as we are concerned, we have a strong case, and we are awaiting FIFA’s decision on the complaints we have lodged.”

Super Eagles midfielder Alex Iwobi echoed the optimism, telling reporters: “We are still waiting; hopefully, we can go to the World Cup.”

Should FIFA rule in Nigeria’s favour, the Super Eagles would be reinstated and advance to the six-team Intercontinental Play-Off tournament scheduled for March in Mexico. A top finish in that playoff would secure one of the remaining African slots at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, co-hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

Nigeria’s qualification hopes now rest entirely on the outcome of Monday’s high-stakes FIFA meeting, with millions of fans and the entire Nigerian football community awaiting the verdict that could rewrite the Super Eagles’ World Cup story.

Putindbutt:
You cannot be paying $60,000 lobbying fee per month and US will label you terrorist.

Mrs Tinubu said “global concern about persecution of Christians in the country is based on ‘propaganda...."

Doro had disclosed that about 70 million Nigerians have been captured as vulnerable persons in the National Social Register as part of efforts to drive targeted poverty reduction interventions.

He stated that the figure represents approximately 17.9 million vulnerable households currently identified nationwide.

The Federal Government says about 15 million vulnerable households have been captured in its Benefit Register for conditional cash assistance being implemented in partnership with the World Bank as part of efforts to cushion economic shocks.

The Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Reduction, Dr Bernard Doro, disclosed this during an interview on Arise Television on Friday. He explained that not all households listed in the National Social Register qualify for direct financial support.

He said, “We are currently offering conditional cash assistance in conjunction with the World Bank, but this money is actually meant as a shock response. And so not everyone within the 17.9 million households in the register is in the Benefit Register. The Benefit Register is around 15 million vulnerable households.”

Doro noted that the National Social Register currently contains about 17.9 million vulnerable households identified through community-based assessments and socio-economic data, but stressed that beneficiaries for specific interventions are selected separately based on programme objectives.

According to him, the conditional cash assistance programme is designed as a temporary measure to provide relief to households facing economic hardship, rather than a universal benefit for all individuals captured in the broader social register.

Doro had disclosed that about 70 million Nigerians have been captured as vulnerable persons in the National Social Register as part of efforts to drive targeted poverty reduction interventions. He stated that the figure represents approximately 17.9 million vulnerable households currently identified nationwide.

He said, “Every poor person at the moment in the country that has been captured because the target started with the poorest of the poor. At the moment we have about 17.9 million vulnerable households that have been captured in the register, which translates to around 70 million individuals in that register. We are continuing to expand the register to capture as many people as possible.”

Doro explained that the register focuses primarily on identifying the poorest of the poor through community engagement and socio-economic assessments, noting that local communities play a central role in identifying vulnerable individuals.

According to him, “Communities will guide us based on the questions that we have and the criteria that we have to be able to identify who is poor amongst them. And then we take steps also to validate these when we visit their homes, we look at the condition of the homes, we also look at their own personal data and we use this to be able to target who is the poorest of the poor.”

He clarified that inclusion in the National Social Register does not automatically qualify individuals for direct financial support, stressing that beneficiaries are selected through a separate Benefit Register based on specific programmes.

“Our desire is to ensure that every Nigerian is captured in the National Social Register. And just for context, there is a difference between the National Social Register and the Benefit Register. So when programmes are planned, you then target individuals based on the nature of the programme that you are delivering,” he added.

The minister added that the Federal Government would continue to expand the National Social Register while ensuring that targeted interventions reach those most affected by economic shocks and vulnerabilities.