₦airaland Forum

KingsDecorppro:
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What makes it difficult for you to state here ?

Seen some of your post with prices

KingsDecorppro:
Outdoor decking

How much is this par sqm , does that price come with the installation rails or kits under ?

thebargainhunte:
Morgan is hiking their charges too

What am saying is you can negotiate rates below the base rate if you do good amounts

awesomeJ:
MCSE hiking fees to 0.75% from 1st July.

that's extra 250k to 500k monthly brokerage fees for me.

Who has a trading license here.
I'll commit to N2bn annual trading value if you'll offer 0.5%

With the volumes you do , you should be able to negotiate rates

Try to get across to the guys in charge at both Morgan and Atlass , should not be difficult , got concessions from both in the past

DeRuggedProf:
I was tracking him on two trading platforms. Me and Or*cle just dey laugh the guy..

Oracle still dey this business , I don miss the guy

I dey hail am from Istanbul

ositadima1:
This is not what I asked. I'm looking at companies' profit growth. What I'm telling you is that, despite some of these companies reporting massive increases in profit, when you adjust those figures to the dollar value of their respective periods, you’ll realize they actually made less real profit.

Let me explain: suppose a Nigerian company made ₦1,000,000 in profit after tax in 2014. At the 2014 exchange rate of ₦197 per dollar, that equates to $5,076. Now, let's say the company has grown its profit by 20% annually (CAGR). By 2025, that would amount to about ₦7,430,000 in profit. Converted at the current exchange rate of ₦1,600 per dollar, that gives you roughly $4,644. So, although the profit in naira terms has increased significantly over the last 10 years, the real value in dollars has actually decreased.

Only companies with a compounded annual growth rate above 22% since then would have experienced real profit growth in dollar terms. But how many companies fall into that category?

So, my point again is that outsized returns aren’t the whole story. We also need to look at real return when compared with stable economies. Going back to your calculation—a foreign investor whose Nigerian portfolio didn’t grow more than 8x from 2014 to date has effectively lost money. Don’t point to the few companies that achieved 20x to 30x returns in share value; we also have many that didn’t. A 2014 investor would have needed to be extremely lucky to pick only the top performers.

They will say we spend in naira and it does not matter , atimes ignorance is not bliss , always good to be diversified especially when devaluation is a big factor

Times of chaos are times of opportunities

Agbalowomeri:
Japanese stock exchange opened at 7% down, Australia 5% down, Brent@63, wait for US DJI to give you 5% legover. Soon naija turn. Na dividend qualification still dey paper the market

Brace for impact

waiting with my cutlass

About moving funds into my US and Nigeria trading accounts

RodgersAkpafu:
I think we are mixing two things up here

On one hand, in the short term there might be some mispricing here and there
You can "chop and clean mouth"
Essentially you are being a trader

On the other
there is long term capital appreciation from reinvesting profits instead of paying dividends

The logic is the reinvested money increases capacity and efficiency to make even bigger future profits, the cycle again which will affect the value of the firm positively

The snag with line 2 is that 5 years from now

the money might be nominally big
but worth less

Ok got you , but I was basically looking at repricing of assets , stocks inclusive, to hedge devaluation and inflation , and time frame should not be 5 years , will say 6 to 18 months max , basically everything has gone up , land , property , food ,data , everything , good stocks should go up too theoretically , and it kind of happened 2023 into 2024 after the floating of the naira

RodgersAkpafu:
That's the typical long term horizon
5 years
is it not better to take cash upfront at present value

than to reinvest in an uncertain environment and is also facing twin demons ?

I million naira proceed in 2021
1 million naira proceer today

there is a huge huge gulf

Can get more cash upfront with fixed income

RodgersAkpafu:
That's the typical long term horizon
5 years
is it not better to take cash upfront at present value

than to reinvest in an uncertain environment and is also facing twin demons ?

I million naira proceed in 2021
1 million naira proceer today



there is a huge huge gulf

There are better alternatives in the fixed income space then , why take the risk of nse just for dividend if capital appreciation is not a driving factor if you are considering hedging those two forces

RodgersAkpafu:
That's a defendable argument
But let me present a counter

When a company makes say x billion naira this year
they can either pay out some in dividend, or reinvest into capital expansion that will increase the value of the firm long term....

If the dividend is paid out now, it is paid out as present value, t
And the investor can do what they like with the proceeds

However, if they go for capital expansion
and truly the value of the firm rises in 5 years
Using the last three years as a reference, inflation AND devaluation at that rate has "rendered useless" any capital gain over 5 years , making the argument that it was better to pay out the cash at period t, and t +1 when the naira still had more value values

Hmmmmm , If you have to wait for 5 years for capital appreciation to hedge devaluation and inflation in the nse , you might be better of in fixed income or other stuffs then

RodgersAkpafu:
This is gonna be a (slightly) long post so strap on your seat belt

Caveat: This is. my opinion only

Let's go........

Now investors generally either play for cash flows (dividends) ; or capital appreciation on the asset over time (increase in asset price)

While both are very good, and some play for a mix of both in their investment strategy
[/b]I play for the cash much more because Nigeria battles the twin demons of devaluation and inflation (almost identical twins lol) [b]

So, in my portfolio, I prioritise cash flow more than the capital appreciation bit
I suggest u do same

Now when it comes to the picks that will give you AT WORST minimum of >11% annual cash flow returns
I'll say Zenith (now my biggest position, buying this sucker hand over fist)
Soke GTBank will be alright
UCAP may do better this year into the next (they "disappointed a bit" )

Access is drunk on expansion ogogoro, so a little bit of it is fine, but I don't always trust them to "over declare for boys" like their peers do

Seplat and Airtel is also fine, but their dividend payment is less than <10% annually but the dividends come in regularly (more than the typical Nigerian company)

BUA companies are companies you buy with (small) funds that you write off in my opinion (I.e. you wasted the money but you did not waste the money situation, lol)

For real estate exposure, UPDC Reit > SFS Reit .
(you can have both, but much more of UPDC than the latter)
That's my opinion
Use at your own risk
Thank you

Would have thought it’s only by capital appreciation you hedge devaluation and inflation and not by dividend

Foodempire:
Compounding is good but the culprit here is hyper inflation, it ruins future plan. Imaging a tbs investment of 2 years towards buying a Uber corolla car, only to realize that there's a 150% jump in price when you are set to buy.

Your purchasing power is being sliced even before your tbs investment matured, hence it's like chasing the rainbow. Keep at least 80% of your investments in dollar,invest in real estate or anything that appreciate as dollar rate surge that's the best method to hedge against inflation.

Sound advice ,why have you not been doing this ? , what of the business or work that brought the surplus ? , I think naira will be somewhat stable this year compared to the past 2 years , but always better to be prepared for all eventualities

Raider76:
10 Wealth-Building Lessons Men Learn Too Late In Life

https://www.newtraderu.com/2024/12/24/10-wealth-building-lessons-men-learn-too-late-in-life/

Excellent lessons , big on 5 ,6 and 9

aj8:
The attached may interest you

Those guys collect like 90m from me monthly , received there communication for price increase starting 1st January , last was October , I don tire , . Don’t have any shares btw but they look like a well run company

ositadima1:
Lol, nothing way person no go see for ichimoku.

Oyibo will develop a pattern-scanning tool tailored to their own markets and timelines. Then, you’ll read about it somewhere and adopt it blindly, without considering that our market operates under entirely different conditions.

Did the creator account for the 100,000-block moves? Did they factor in our market’s strict ±10% limits?

Yet, you’ll lift a TA tool without making the necessary adjustments or building one from scratch, and still feel like a sage.

As for him, he probably invested in the banking sector. That 100% target might take a while.

No man is infallible , and i think people are aware of this already

Reminds me of oracle and some of his projections , and subsequent unexplained disappearance

But people must do there due diligence and take responsibility for any advice they take from here , good or bad , or else all analysis and hints will be stifled including good ones , yours inclusive

oliverjiad:
okay

Yes itll be

If any difference may be then it's dollar effect

Thanks a lot

oliverjiad:
ful:₦35m
Compromise:₦20m

Jaid

Have a quote in that range for full

And is 2022 or 2023 same clearing cost

Does it make a difference if the vehicle comes this month or January 2025 since that’s a new year ?

What’s the clearing cost of a 2021 Mercedes gle 53 amg coupe

Both full value and compromise

EgunMogaji2:

My wife has adopted your mall. Much to the detriment of my bank account

But it is super convenient for us. Thanks for providing the service in our community.

Awhhhhh , thanks for the patronage and compliments sir . God bless 🙏🙏

We did some festive decorations yesterday inspite of the rampaging inflation . Am sure madam will find interesting

rotecch77:
Real Estate is the bay now
The location is close to gbagi area

Nice one . Well done

EgunMogaji2:
I have a suspicion.

Maybe while you’re here you can construct a substructure for me.

Baba egun I hail o , asked after you from some bikers that visited my mall about 2 months ago

rotecch77:
Mechanical demolition of old structure to pave way for new one

Where is the location in ib , people no dey slow for ib

Will start another one soon myself

megawealth01:
The day dollar will fall eh. I just hope people buying dollars to hoard won't regret it sha?

Possible , don’t even think it’s wise buying dollar to keep , must be for investment now , dollar itself dey loose value

But all this applies to people that bought recently , how to do you panic a man that bought his holdings at 360 or even 200 . The game is the game

ghm:
I don't think anyone is arguing about the negative impact of devaluation on cost of living, stocks and share investments, prices of goods and services. What I see as the issue is that those who are pushing it are doing it in a very narrow-minded, straight-jacketed, textbook/theoretical way. They closed their minds to other possibilities that can make one take advantage of the situation. Savvy persons will not fold his/her hands and watch these policies ruin them but take advantage of the situation instead of lamenting and cursing the policy makers.

To shed more light so that it will not just be hypothetical talk, here are some of the ways people managed these situations:

1. Borrow in Naira and convert to forex. My eyes opened when a friend borrowed N50m and converted to USD @ N360 to $1; he is still paying the loan in NGN while the rate has fallen as low as N1700 to $1. Some did the same with UCAP mutual funds, etc. Some people change part of the income to forex monthly, etc. Someone quoted Eco 101 earlier, but we learn different things differently in each situation, I learnt in Eco 101 that borrowers gain during inflation.

2. Diversify into forex denominated investments instead of having 100% in NGN shares. Do Eurobonds, dollar funds, global stocks with Chaka, Bamboo, Trove etc. In fact, a sister/similar thread was even opened for that as far back as 2020 - https://www.nairaland.com/5669161/us-stocks-pick-alert

3. Reduce the tenure of your investments in NGN stocks. Take profit regularly, trade for earnings, news, do JIJO etc. That is why we pick these days, no lifetime loyalty to any stock any more. We go for stocks with asymmetrical returns, steady dividend, astronomical growth etc.

4. Keep no savings in devalued currency, in fact, have only what you will spend in NGN.

Let me stop here.

Fair enough , just have different assets class and be diversified . Cant be in fcy in all your positions , not possible , we still make most of this money in naira now

I personally think we are the bottom or close to , and we should have some stability soon with the naira at least for sometime or within a stable band , we have hoped for this so often sha time will tell

Done some of the above and more , if you do business keeping stocks of goods could be as good as fcy , most traders convert cash to goods quickly now , crypto is there ,foreign stocks , eurobonds , fcy fixed deposit , real estate both local and foreign etc even local nse stocks can still help your ministry if you get it right , depends on your risk appetite and funds available

Your friend must have borrowed around 2018/19 to early 2020 , the battle against inflation and devaluation is unending , you must just be aware and try to diversify

HesInMe:
It is almost surprising, although somewhat understandable, how little people understand the impact of FX policy and devaluation. Oya, adjust your portfolio and its 1000% gains for currency devaluation, i.e., quote it in US dollars. Then compare with someone who kept their money in dollars and earned the average 25% gain of the S&P 500 index.

Result: You are a lot poorer than you know. But continue suffering and smiling.

It’s obvious People know very little , some have even gone as far as saying the value of dollars or other fx relative to the naira does not matter , since we spend naira yet Prices of everything is galloping due to the same devaluation and inflation caused by high fx rate , a lot of companies we follow reference impact of fx and dollars in there reports and operations , it’s not by agidi or strong head o , people will learn

Raider76:
If you take an average civil servant in Nigeria, would you say that he produces goods or services worth $50 a month? I think productivity is the issue. You can't be paid more than what you produce.

You are spot on ,We are not a productive country , all the numbers clearly show this , the size of the economy , the gdp par capital , even when you introduce ppp , all abysmal for a country of 240m people , yet the birth rate is not slowing down , we need to do better and stop deceiving ourselves joor

Attached a response I gave years back on similar discourse , funny na the same 50$ reference

rmx:
You can pay what your conscience dictates

But Simple economics is the reason . Don’t ever compare wages in a 20 plus trillion economy to one of about 400 billion . It’s for that same reason every job in the usa or much of the west pays multiple times better than same category of jobs in nija , maybe 20 to 30 times

I see a lot of people display this ignorance , including professionals when they start comparing there wages to counterparts in the west

How do you compare wages in an economy of 60k dollars gdp par Capita to that of nigeria at 2k dollars , even china wages are much lower than usa

A cleaner in the usa will earn more , same with teacher , police and every other job ,
There is only one abnormally in nija to this rule for obvious reasons . I leave people to guess

VeeVeeMyLuv:
Yes! Convert all

Nigeria does not look like a serious country

Is not interested in being a serious country

Brutal

Grupo:
Nigeria is not breaking up anytime soon.

But I really admire the courage of the people betting on the naira for such long periods.

Because with this high inflation rate, by the time you get your money back in a few years time, it'd be worth next to nothing.

Bought my corolla in 2019 for 1.4m

Today, the same car goes for 7.5m.

There's no amount of compounding that would have turned 1. 4m invested in 2019 to 7.5m in 2024.

Reason you must invest in other asset classes

HamtabFawaz2:

The POP/interior decoration at skit maker house, Aloma fell off.

Wow pic.twitter.com/uyTXKdr9cx

— POOJA!!! (@PoojaMedia) November 1, 2024

POP Decking Area fell down again!!! ⚠️



I have always reiterated that the Decking Area of Pop is a critical part that needs serious attention to details, hence make sure to employ those who know their onion.

Recommendations to Home owners , who intend to use Pop design in their building space :

• Employ the services of a professional, who will not compromise on quality
• Make Sure your decking or roof is not leaking before installation of Pop
• Don't house heavy/chaotic designs in such areas
• Better reinforcement, implemented in the decking Area before installation
• The " Decking area of Pop designs" should never be rushed because you intend to move in quickly
• Task your Artisan/contractor to use enough fillas (Fiber) for your Pop design & not to manage it.

I have emphasized on several occasions on this thread, the Important role fiber (fillas) plays in the construction & installation of POP ( plaster of paris).

Feel free to chip in any question(s) if you have any, i'd definitely reply once am available.

May we not be victims of unfortunate accident by God's grace.

This just reconfirms my personal bias towards using plasterboard , more peace of mind