₦airaland Forum

mikeapollo:
I am really getting tired of how you take EVERYTHING PERSONAL! C'mon!
There may be various opinions on an issue. In your case, once someone has a different opinion, you take it personal and start saying the person is DEFENDING! Defending who, for what?
All you needed to say is that you are referring to a different thing, simple.!
Why bring in ''defending''?

Oga Mike, make u no vex for me. I just dey pull your leg, the reason there was a long laugh out loud at the end of my statement

That said i will still say that everything Oando shld not be taken at face value but rather should be interrogated properly.

mikeapollo:
The RI is technically done with, as the qualifying date was fixed as 13th Feb. Wale and his men would take up any outstanding Rights units.
Institutional investors and directors are the ones to get shares from a successful debt-equity conversion, so those shares would likely not be part of free float in the market

Oga Mike no be everything Oando you must defend. lollllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

The "dilutive" i am refering to has nothing to do with free - float but its effect on the valuation metric os the shares going forward.

Yemy3m:
.debt2eqwity news is coming

hmmmmmmmmmmm.

I thougt it will come after the RI has been concluded.

if it comes now it will be very dilutive, thereby limiting the upside when the cleaning of books is done

megawealth01:
Almost 190m offer... Una no get joy at all for UBA because of common dividends

But seriously UBA should be punished more than this just like MTN was punished 2 years ago so they can sit up

Thank you

which platform is this?

Someone shld please help me with the total offer nits for UBA as at now. Morgan is presently showing about 72.5 million but i am sure that is not the full count.

mikeapollo:
Those stakeholders whose share priced have fallen drastically would take it as possible sign of ''distress''. Not every stakeholder with huge stake in the bank is ready for all the technical jargons that you may know. All they ''see'' and ''know'' is the stock price.

Hmmmmmm. There is some fact in this submission. Particularly for those just entering the market.

pluto09:
I don't think Tony really cares about the market price of some of his companies.
TRANSCORP did not make any significant price movement until Ote came to shake him. The same TRANSCORP has been stagnant again for almost 2 years

Very true. He only care when he wants to raise money. Its a relics from his distant past. He was able to build up his substantial holding in both UBA and Transcorp keeping the shares low while he mops up.

megawealth01:
The beautiful thing about this time extension is that it helps me prepare well... Na now I ready to monitor the market this morning

Just imagine they remove the 10% thing... By now Tony for don hold 20 conference meetings and 100 press briefs and 17 board meetings this weekend into today Monday

You are a wicked somebody. U wan make Tony dey shit for body

Yemy3m:
.im out .ill enter zenit or gt

Congratulations

L

Panadee:
Over 200m shares on offer

It is not even much just N10 billiion

I was thinking we will have over 1 billion shares on offer

Makeuna wake me up when the thing don reach 1 billion shares full offer

I want to do hostile take over from Tony

SonofElElyonRet:
@Agbalowomeri don meet pessimist wey pass am

Lolllllll

Dupeodus:
Where is UBA getting more than ₦300 billion foreign currency revaluation loss from at a time naira is relatively stable and I do not see a huge foreign currency position on the balance sheet. Back this out or if you position that this will not repeat going forward, then the first quarter result is fantastic.

My thinking is that is coming from subsidiaries from outside nigeria. There shld be translation loss from the assets of the subs considering the naira moved within the last one year 1450-1600 last year to 1300-1400 this year. That is moving from the reporting currencies of the subs to naira. My thinking i might be wrong tho.

Mankind2024:
Calm down. E jẹ́ ká fi ọkàn balẹ̀.
and take a moment to read with an open mind.
UBA Plc remains a very strong and resilient financial institution. I recommend you carefully review pages 64 to 96 of the 206-page report, where it is clearly shown that the bank has successfully passed its internal stress tests.
The institution has cleaned up its balance sheet to ensure long-term sustainability and prosperity. It now holds full banking licenses across 24 African countries, with all foreign branches having returned to profitability.
UBA is undoubtedly one of the best and most solid banks in Africa.
The position is clear and unambiguous. Kindly read and digest the entire report rather than zeroing in solely on pages 204–205.

If they have truly passed the CBN mandated stress testing that is a good thing and can be a reprieve for the upcoming beating if properly packaged as a PR

J

Agbalowomeri:
Are whyning? They have made the provisions
Sope Oti lor😂
That is Tony's logo

Uncle Agba i understand your perspective judging by the past of the players. my take is that current CBN wld not condone such (looking to Oba of Firstbank as clue) plus the fact that from the books, those provisioned loans are still performing but to defer to you anything is possible in this clime.

The upside to the whole thing is that the provisioning is one off ( they cant provision it again this year even if they are still carrying the loan except they make a new one, which then shld be the fault of CBN because given the current stand i dont expect CBN to allow them make new loan to same entities). Additionally if the loan are paid iff or sold to other banks which Tony does not have influence over UBA then will have a substantial write back to profit.

The downside is the immediate sting of non payment of dividend which can be quite painful.

BabsO2:
Indeed. It’s a good thing if UBA can loan money to TOE’s connected businesses. Restricting such corporate loans will be wrong. Especially the listed companies. For non listed companies restrictions should be in place. Perhaps the restrictions is related to personal loans and not corporate loans. Will be good to know which one. And provisions for personal loans look one kind as that money can vanish.

Unfortunately Nigerian banks AFS does not show insider loan (i believe FRC should make this mandatory as it is in some other climes) at least stating thier holdings is presently mandatory, this shld also be the same thing for insider related credit.

That said. I dont think the loans are personal. I have a strong beleif they are to his other related companies

robobo:
You are right. The acquisition was not financed by UBA but be rest assured UBA would have been part of banks financing working capital (loan / overdraft with a max of yearly tenor). That said, the CBN rule is actually a double edged sword. In that in most frontier/ developing market, banks mogul/ owners are always also players in other sphere of the economy unlike in very developed markets. So there might be a need to find a delicate balance instead of policies that engendered total prohibition

My take actually is that for such insider loan 50% provision should be ok for loan performing and procured at competitive interest rate (i.e. treated as a stage 2 ifrs) from day 1 of the loan.

BabsO2:
I suspect he’s also not happy with shareholders as he was left to shoulder a huge chunk of the rights.

I doubt this has anything to do with it. I am sure left to Tony he will have paid something no matter how small. The constraints must have been from regulator., coupled with up coming stress testing

Mankind2024:
It is a fundamental principle of financial integrity that one must not mischaracterize a transaction to suit a specific narrative—or, as the proverb suggests, "give a dog a bad name just to hang it."
​Regarding the acquisition of the 20.07% stake in Seplat Energy by Heirs Energies, there is no documented evidence or regulatory filing to support the claim that the transaction was financed using UBA Plc funds. Such a move would be contrary to the strict corporate governance and "Related Party Transaction" frameworks that govern Tier-1 financial institutions.
​The acquisition was anchored by major multilateral financial institutions, specifically:
​Afreximbank (African Export-Import Bank): Provided the primary credit facilities and long-term financing necessary for Heirs Energies to expand its portfolio.
​Africa Finance Corporation (AFC): Acted as a key institutional partner, providing the structured capital required for large-scale energy equity acquisitions.

https://businessday.ng/energy/article/heirs-energies-acquires-20-stake-in-seplat-energy-in-500-million-deal/

You are right. The acquisition was not financed by UBA but be rest assured UBA would have been part of banks financing working capital (loan / overdraft with a max of yearly tenor). That said, the CBN rule is actually a double edged sword. In that in most frontier/ developing market, banks mogul/ owners are always also players in other sphere of the economy unlike in very developed markets. So there might be a need to find a delicate balance instead of policies that engendered total prohibition

[quote author=Dupeodus post=139209076][/quote]Yes, the CBN prudential guideline seems to be tougher plus the fact that aside from the guideline, regulators (CBN) can tell banks to make provision for particular loan whether it is performing or not. They do this frequently depending on some other information that might not be available to the banks or related to the particular loan. That is why they are a regulator.

What the CBN is trying to achieve with the 100% provision for insider related credit (whether performing or not)is to force bank directors with interest in other businesses not to borrow from the bank they own/ are directors in. This will ensure that those other businesses they own does not enjoy interest rate subsidy from their directors bank and also ensure they dont tie down the bank they own with bad credit. In short it will force those other businesses to compete for funding with thier competitors at a fair rate

Agbalowomeri:
This is not a forbearance issue though. More like credit risk exposure

Very correct.

Dupeodus:
Bottom line. The profit declared is overstated by ₦187.515 billions as these should have been top line charges. I wonder why the CBN and the auditors would have allowed a material misrepresentation like this, hiding significant numbers like this in an obscure note and the statement of changes in equity that most people will not see. But for this post, I'll have missed it.

This is not exactly as u stated it (i.e. overstated profit). The mechanics of calculating impairment under ifrs 9 differs from the CBN prudential guidelines (as well as each countries prudential guideline). The rule per CBN is that if the CBN calculation is higher you transfer from your profit to the reserve but if IFRS is higher you maintain the figure from IFRS meaning you cant take out of the reserve. I suspect the difference will largely be because of the new 100% provision for insider related borrowings.

Meanwhile All Nigerian banks (and most international big banks all over the world) adopt the IFRS 9 standard for financial reporting, so their will always be a difference on impairment calculation every year. Thekey is the difference should not be as large as this one from UBA hence my thinking that it is from the new rule of 100% provision for insider related credit which is peculiar to UBA in this instance

[quote author=BabsO2 post=139194382][/quote]Ohhh. That was a response to a post by Agba. I stated it as "COULD" because no one can read wale's mind. Which is one of the reason i stated transparency and adequate communication as a key thing lacking from the management.

BabsO2:
Reserves valuation already support N429. Other synergies can boost it up easily to N500. But N1k is way off if there is no further devaluation.

Looks like you have muted the delist thoughts you shared earlier this year

I dont understand the bolded

BabsO2:
This steep valuation is not supported by hydrocarbon reserves valuation.

He go be like film IF/WHEN wale attends to those things i highlighted above.

mikeapollo:
I think Wale and his team went into upstream business (from downstream filling stations) with little or no experience whatsoever in the sector!
Probably the reason they bought Conoco Phillips at an overvalued price, among other issues.
The inexperience is the biggest challenge and undoing.
It could have been different if he had worked in the upstream sector e.g. in a global oil company like Shell, Chevron etc. before acquiring Unipetrol/Oando or if he had gone into partnership with experienced professionals in the upstream sector.

Oga Mike stop making excuse for him. the main problem is someone believing he is the smartest person in the room and pure ego. Even if he is not upstream experienced as at then he has considerable experience in midstream which though might not be equivalent to upstream but could still the called upon and networked to get requisite knowledge. So what about after more than 10 years post conoco, has anything been different??

Sunrisepebble:
For FY25 results, the book value per share of Zenith 4,924.206 / 41.07=N119.9 per share
Using Cardinal stone research forecast for 2026 their book value per share is 6,189.5 / 41.07=150.7 per share.
Seems the banks are now trading at 1/1.1x P/B. That gives you a fair value of N166
NFA/DYOR. This is rough maths

That means UBA will do N100 be dat ooooooooooooo Make i hold my thing then

Hmmmmmm

Though what we are presently having looks like a general bull market but i sincerely believe Nigerian banks will/ should reprice particularly after the recapitalization and possibly post the upcoming stress test. it is looking more like an aberration for Nigerian banks to be priced at the present valuation bands. Banks in even some more distress market dont price that ridiculously valuation band

mikeapollo:
Na wa ooo!
No wonder the expectation of 900mw power plant in 12 months.
You want Oando at N1,000 so that you can start competing with Dangote?
God dey ooo. Is it good?

Oga Mike

Read my comment well ooooo, there are conditions to that price

Oando has enough assets to achieve that price in the medium term. The challenge is purely Management. If Wale is fairly transparent, and he adequately communicates to the shareholders/ investing public how he intends to achieve those 3 conditions above, and the shareholders/ investing public can see judicious implementation of such plan for a while then the above price is well attainable.

megawealth01:
I don target 289 sha

My own na btw N500 -N1000 after the book is cleaned (1. negative equity cleared 2. Adequate working capital has been raised (so less dependent on bank borrowing) and 3. dividend restored)

feelamong:
Dont worry

TOE is still very busy with Seplat

once he is done, he will face UBA and push it to the moon

E be like say the Oga wan wan target Forbes next year.

I am suspecting that Heirs oil might become listed via a merger with Seplat.

This will help him consolidate his Upstream business, tighten his grip on Seplat (or the eventual entity from the merger) and also bring him into Forbes listing

nosa2:
Market is acting as if the Nigerian consumer is not suffering from sky high energy prices. Q1 results go do everybody like home video.

I am enjoying the ride but the shock is coming

Oga Nosa

The effect of "sky high energy prices" will not reflect in Q1 result. The war started at the end of February (67% of Q1 already done" while the effect did not materialize at the pump until about a week/two later meaning 75-80% of Q1 economic activities were already done.


My take is that the effect will be captured by the Q2/half year reports