₦airaland Forum

megawealth01:
You don't know the HISTORY of OANDO na why

u wey know the history but i told you it will hover arnd 50 till the RI is done you are arguing then. has it left the 50 anchor yet??

i beg make una let wale breatheeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

megawealth01:
As in eh. Wale is up to something sha just that it can go anyways

Shey una wan kill Wale niiiiiii
make una let the poor boy breatheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
EPS is 30
He has delivered a dividend yield of 16.35% for total 2025 FY, arguably the best on NGX for 2025FY.
he deliver interim dividend of 1 for 7 (8.3% yield)
then he delivered final dividend of 2 for 27 (7.4% yield)
una con still dey find another dividend, SHEY UNA WAN KILL AMMMMM. ABI MAKE HIN PAY WITH HIM BLOOD HABAAAAAAA

Nigerian banks should generally increase their payout ratio because that might help repricing towards EMEA/ African averages. The days of 15-25% payout ratio should be a thing of the past if we want to see better pricing. No better way to instill confidence in the numbers / AFS being churn other than a healthy payout ratio, otherwise the numbers/ AFS will be taken as "audio" and same will ultimately reflect in pricing.

Sunrisepebble:
For GT in bolded. Not really a surprise. N12.76 total div

This is what is called "Talk and do"

Sunrisepebble:
GTCO final dividend of N11.76k per share

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

KarlTom:
OANDO

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/46430_OANDO_PLC-OANDO_PRESS_RELEASE__CORPORATE_ACTIONS_MARCH_2026.pdf

"Forward looking" statement as usual. lolll

Sunrisepebble:
Whisper of 875k
NFA/DYOR

Any whisper per Access and UBA??

megawealth01:
WALE should clean am fast ⏩

ongoing

yMcy56:
GT widening the gap again....
GT @124
ZEE @109
As at now....

UBA @51

* The kind of billions flowing into these banking stocks though!
Hope we are safe in other sectors....😁

N11bn+ in ZENITH alone and as at now 😳

* ACCESS bank needs to step up the game and do nothing less than N40.....
Only one good news needed......maybe payment of good dividend

* Otedola & company should be warming up in FBNH

.

Recapitalisation is over (positive for risk) + dividend fever (even if little) = repricing

megawealth01:
Battle for FORBES na only Wale dey dull OANDO

No worry, d tin go do una like magic after ojt finish cleaning the book

megawealth01:
He doesn't know Wale na 😔

ok ooooo. i hear unaaaa

megawealth01:
If OANDO close full bid today then I assume Wale means business this time around...

We might then see wonders from the MM 😜

i dont think it is in his interest that the price should stray too far from 50 until the RI is concluded and bedded.

Only thereafter will/could the price then take of to then anchor debt to equity agreed price. so una still get longggggg way to go.

Bagwa:
Both 😃 KM 150

Apparently that will be after RI closed

Bagwa:
https://nairametrics.com/2026/03/02/opl-245-fg-splits-oil-block-for-eni-shell/

ENI Sold its 100% interest in Nigeria to Oando August 2024

Welcome back

[quote author=KarlTom post=138646620]OandO MM should take time o


it is in the interest of the MM and other vested parties for the price not to rise above 50 so they can corner the RI

megawealth01:
A BIG AMEN oooooo

I will be so happy if it sees #189

What is the 189 that you have been saying means? because na like so someone ( i think Bagwa) was mentioning 93 severally here during the last run only for it to be clear now that it was the price for the shares surrendered in place of debt and the reversal started around the price. Is the 189 the price for the proposed debt to equity deal?

ositadima1:
Revenue hit ₦1.066 trillion, up 53% year-on-year. Normalized EBIT came to ₦387.9 billion at a 36.4% margin, EBITDA was ₦422.7 billion (39.6% margin), and profit after tax was ₦273.1 billion. The company is sitting on ₦388 billion in cash against only ₦166 billion in borrowings, a net cash position of ₦222 billion, and has proposed a ₦6/share dividend, five times last year's payout. These are not the numbers of a struggling cement company.

To value WAPCO properly I used a Damodaran-aligned DCF, which means starting from what the business actually earns operationally rather than headline profit. After stripping out non-recurring other income, the PPE impairment reversal, and the ₦30.2 billion finance income earned on cash deposits (which I account for separately), normalized NOPAT, net operating profit after the 33.6% effective tax rate, comes to ₦257.5 billion. The next step is invested capital. Lafarge Africa runs with structurally negative working capital of ₦103 billion, meaning customers pay before the company settles its suppliers. Combined with PPE of ₦448.6 billion, total invested capital is ₦347.1 billion. Dividing NOPAT by invested capital gives a Return on Invested Capital of 74.2%, which was 75.1% in 2024. For context, most global cement companies operate at 10–20% ROIC. Every naira reinvested in this business creates significant value.

For the discount rate, I used a WACC of 25.6%, built from a risk-free rate of 18.5% (Nigerian T-Bill yield), Nigeria's equity risk premium of 10.5% (Damodaran), and an unlevered cement sector beta of 0.72. The company's near-zero leverage keeps WACC close to the cost of equity. This is a high discount rate but it reflects the Nigerian macro reality, not a criticism of the business.

Free cash flow to the firm in 2025 was ₦88.1 billion on a reported basis, suppressed by a ₦129.6 billion working capital absorption as rapid revenue growth caused inventories and receivables to balloon. Normalized for a more sustainable working capital trajectory, FCFF is approximately ₦187.8 billion or ₦11.65 per share. Running a three-phase DCF on conservative assumptions, revenue growing at 20–25% decaying to 5% terminal growth, EBIT margins compressing gradually from 37% to 30%, produced an initial intrinsic value of approximately ₦123.5 per share (Base Case). Against the current market price of ₦210, that initial model flagged the stock as roughly 41% overvalued.

However, two factors I subsequently incorporated change the picture materially. The first is the near-complete 3.5 million tonne capacity expansion. Against current installed capacity of ~10.5mt, this is a 33% increase in one move. At a conservative 60% utilisation in year one, that's 2.1mt of incremental volume adding approximately ₦210 billion in revenue, rising to ₦300 billion annually at 80% utilisation from year two. This alone shifts 2026 revenue growth from a modelled 20% to approximately 38%. The second factor is Huaxin Building Materials, the new 83.81% Chinese owner who completed their acquisition from Holcim in 2025. Huaxin runs domestic operations at EBITDA margins of 35–45% and their operational playbook, clinker optimization, fuel switching, procurement centralization, conservatively adds 2–3 percentage points of EBIT margin over the next two to three years. On ₦1.5 trillion of 2027 revenue, 2pp of margin improvement alone is ₦30 billion of additional annual NOPAT.

Incorporating both factors into the revised model, the bear case (capacity delayed, margins revert to 30%) gives ₦105–₦120 per share. The base case (capacity online H1 2026, margins holding at 37–40%, Huaxin delivering modest efficiency gains) gives ₦185–₦210 per share. The bull case (full ramp, Huaxin pushes margins toward 42%) gives ₦260–₦310 per share. At ₦210, WAPCO is sitting at the top of the base case and the entry point of the bull case, a completely different conclusion from the initial overvaluation call.

The honest assessment is this: the business is genuinely exceptional, ₦210 is a fair price for it, and the upside to ₦260–₦310 is credible without heroic assumptions. But three risks deserve monitoring. The ₦96.6 billion dividend proposal raises the question of whether Huaxin intends to grow the business or extract cash, if it's the latter, the growth thesis weakens. Naira depreciation remains a structural risk given USD-linked input costs in energy and clinker. And Dangote and BUA will not ignore a 3.5mt capacity addition from a competitor without a pricing response. The first real read on how this plays out will be Q1 2026 results, specifically utilization rates on the new line. If that comes in at or above 60%, the bull case becomes the base case and ₦210 will look cheap in hindsight.

Thank you

Sunrisepebble:
I heard they had commenced even before the announcement

Ok. Thats great. Thank you.

Sunrisepebble:
I think so too. I’ve used an EV/Ebitda of 7x for the FY result which is what the Chinese company used to value the business when they bought it.
Don’t forget the knew capacity coming onstream though, an extra 3.5mt per annum. I’ve heard they’ve almost completed it so that should drive growth very soon, as well as the Chinese’ operational efficiency.

That chinese efficiency plus the chinese captive market ( large construction companies) is something to look forward to.

Sunrisepebble:
I think so too. I’ve used an EV/Ebitda of 7x for the FY result which is what the Chinese company used to value the business when they bought it.
Don’t forget the knew capacity coming onstream though, an extra 3.5mt per annum. I’ve heard they’ve almost completed it so that should drive growth very soon, as well as the Chinese’ operational efficiency.

I thought they just commenced the new line with the recent announcement?

ositadima1:
Based on this result alone, buying above 200 would offer no margin of safety, as it appears to be fairly valued. I can share my calculations if you’re interested.

Please share

Sunrisepebble:
EPS N17
DPS N6
Dangcem N57 EPS
NFA/DYOR

DPS of N6 for Wapco or Dangcem?

9Months or full year?

Sunrisepebble:
Same here. Because I know they plant to use internal cash flow rather than raising external money. But with their other business they’ve acquired they’ve still paid decent dividends. I think it’ll be fine

ok. that is soothing to hear.

Sunrisepebble:
Wapco is our retirement stock

The only fear i have for this one is that those chinese might cut dividend to finance expansion (ashaka &shagamu expansion recent news) which could affect price sentiment on NGX, otherwise this one na rock solid

mikeapollo:
You are poking virtually every stocks.
What did you say or do when Wale was paying N2-N3 dividend annually around 2006-2011? It may still happen again.

By the way, I will be very okay if I collect N100 per share to exit Oando, if sanctioned by the Court.

My reading of the Oando recent moves (2025/2026),, particularly after the Eni acquisitions.

1. The share redistribution was a condition by a major lender ( possibly Afrexim) because the holder of the shares (and the debt it was swapped for) Ocean and Oil were insiders. meaning WT surrender the shares at N93/share as a payment for the debt owed by Ocean and Oil to satisfy a drawdown/availment pre- condition pursuant to the Afrexim credit lines.

2. recent result were deliberate accounting gimicks to take advantage of tax credits from earlier losses (from the conocophillips years/acquisition), else it will be forgone once new tax regime per PIA act/Eni acquisitions kick in. (Sunrise mentioned something like this some moons back

3. Financial books clean up has commenced (possibly after tax credit advantage from earlier losses has finished).

4 The first thing WT is doing from the Financial books clean up was to get back some if not all the shares he surrendered earlier via RI. meaning he exchanged the shares for debt at N93 and is buying it back (via RI) at 50, nearly 100% gain.

5. The clean up to continue via debt to equity/ bonds sale (as mentioned by karl some few days ago).

6. Oando might find it true worth/ balance after the clean up (which could take as much as 18-24 months to fully implement). WT could also decided to go private at that point (as mentioned by Agba)


Not a sale or buy recommendation. just my bird eye view of the whole scenario.

Selah

KarlTom:
No sir.

However, the debt-to-equity is very necessary, and I believe it will come later this year. Possibly bonds and PP...

Thank you

KarlTom:
I forsee 60+

Reasons:
In other not to cause too much dilution, they need the SP to be as high as possible before the debt-to-equity conversion.

$300m (or ₦450bn @₦1500/$) of RBL is to be converted to equity

If SP is ₦50 = 9bn units
If SP is ₦60 = 7.5bn units
If SP is ₦75 = 6bn units

Hello Chief

is there a debt to equity in the recent notIfIcation?

i only saw that of RI

mikeapollo:
I don't think Wale bought any Oando shares at 91-92; don't get it mixed up.
But I agree with you that it is in his interest to sell the shares at very high price, even more than N100m

Oga Mike na u dey get am mixed up, no be me.

no be Oando exchange 4.2b shares for N390b sooooooo?

who be Oando who be Wale??

or u think say because them call am "exchange" den no be buy/sale? ok oooooooooooooooooooo?

i beg na carpenter me i beee, i neva get company.

i don face my front

byeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

mikeapollo:
It may be much easier for Wale to sell Oando at N100 to strategic, long-term partners e.g. foreign or institutional investors.
But that price may be a bit too high for an offer to the general public may, unless there are some excellent news that could push up the price e.g. further acquisition of interests in oil wells etc.

How much of recent PO was actually bought by retail investors?

Oga Mike i beg wake up. Most company doing RI/PO in NGX already had strategic, long-term partners e.g. foreign or institutional investors.

if a RI/PO fails, it will not be because retail investor fail to buy because of pricing but rather because there is no strategic, long-term partners e.g. foreign or institutional investors lined up.

it will be Wales headache to go and look for strategic, long-term partners e.g. foreign or institutional investors at above 91-92, otherwise it will mean he be mugu for buying same thing at 91-92.

shikena

KarlTom:
Might not be related.

OandO peaked in September 2024 (₦95) whereas the Settlement Deed was dated December 20, 2024

Anyway at the is point it will be foolhardy for Wale to raise funds via equity at anything less than 91-92.

That will be total recklessness.

KarlTom:
Might not be related.

OandO peaked in September 2024 (₦95) whereas the Settlement Deed was dated December 20, 2024

before settlement deed, there must have been agreement to exchange/ sale which should ideally precede the settlement deed

Sunrisepebble:
No news yet on financials

ok. thank you