Omooloriredade:


It was in reference to OP's opinion of an offer price (N30 - N35). My point was that UBA will not tap the market for funds at a price higher than the prevailing market price on the NGX. Discounts will always be offered to attract investors. So not sure why he believes the price will be in that range except he also believes the price on the floor or bvps will be much higher than it is today when that time comes to raise funds in any combination of options available at their disposal.

All in my opinion.

Thanks

Omooloriredade:


It was in reference to OP's opinion of an offer price (N30 - N35). My point was that UBA will not tap the market for funds at a price higher than the prevailing market price on the NGX. Discounts will always be offered to attract investors. So not sure why he believes the price will be in that range except he also believes the price on the floor or bvps will be much higher than it is today when that time comes to raise funds in any combination of options available at their disposal.

All in my opinion.

Ok. Thanks

Omooloriredade:


This is normal legal finance talk. Nothing genius about it. I suggest you don't read too much into it. ALL banks will do the same. It's not about Tony.

Read note 9 of GT notice of AGM too. Any other bank notices that doesn't include book building doesn't mean they won't do it. It's just normal if you have a whole array of options for capital raising. Price discovery mechanism to be adopted won't be uniform across these avenues or platforms. Make no mistake about it though, a public offer on the NGX won't be at a premium.

Hello Chief, can you please explain / expatiate on the bolded.

aj8:




No. 9

Thank you

aj8:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/40904_UNITED_BANK_FOR_AFRICA_PLC-UBA_PLC_-_NOTICE_OF_AGM_MAY_24,_2024_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_APRIL_2024.pdf




Tony is smart. Book building strategy is fantastic. Probably eyes fixed on an offer bid prices in the range of N30-35 judging by the new shares tabled (but a higher cut off is still possible) to raise the extra capital. He only needs to show that UBA can sustain a dividend policy above N3.00 yearly after recapitalization to achieve good uptake/bids. He has my respect 🫡 . He probably has a foreign underwriter. On this route, UBA should meet recapitalization in weeks or a couple of months. This is a clear pointer to a fantastic Q1 result. No one does this without good sure back up. Q1 results would probably come in right after closure of register to give wind to the sails of this option.

Hello Chief. Please can you share the document you are referring to in your write up? the document cannot be found in the link. Appr8

thebargainhunte:


If he wanted, he would have done it long time ago the way Ardova did. I think he needed the drama to tidy the results up. You might not be far from the truth, he wanted to turn a new leave now. Oando remains a stock to watch, but one has to know dinning with Oando is like dinning with the ....

"I think he needed the drama to tidy the results up" == in hindisght (20/20), this is looking more like the intention.


"You might not be far from the truth, he wanted to turn a new leave now"== i would not bet on this, i would rather say my goals are aligned with his. the day that goals does not align again you would really understand that he has not turn any new leave (or tree)

WT like most (if not all) Nigeria big man are driven by ego (forbes thing e.t.c.) so you can be rest assured since they are in government that would be on his top radar also. so Oando might not be going anywhere, might even witness a lot of pumping once the AFS are sound enough i.e. post release of AFS for 2022 and 2023 FY

( i am seeing/dreaming something like the AP / Otedola saga from sub 10 to over 300)

chillykelly86:


The CBN is in order not to allow banks use forex revaluation gains to pay dividends or for opex. It should be in a reserve account. This is because the exchange rate is not fixed and when naira stengthens, such reserves will come in handy to avoid rocking the boat. It's still part of equity and can be used to make money but shouldn't be seen as profits attributable to stakeholders.

for me the bolded is the key, imagine 500bn revaluation gain from UBA being invested in TB at current rate of over 20%, that is an assured 100bn profit for 2024 FY without any cost involve (no depositor to pay interest on the capital because it is part of equity)

Pesuzok:
Aside from the fear of delisting Oando, all eyes should be on the day oando will conclude with Naoc. Expect massive bull from that day.

Buying NAOC makes oando an operator in the E&P

The bold is the key.

that is where the difference between Oando (as presently is) and Seplat lies

Oando is presently not an operator (although is an upstream player)

But Seplat is an operator

meaning Seplat can ramp up production (if need be and financial wherewithal is available), which is exactly what they did upon becoming an operator

while Oando would only be contended with whatever the present operator produce (as a portfolio investor)

but the bigger question is would Wale allow the minority shareholder benefit from this largese whenever it materialises?

aj8:


The average of the last 2 dividends x 10 comes very close to the peak price before the declaration of new dividends in anticipation that the new year's end should at least meet the previous year’s yield if the EPS has been surpassed or met. This is true for most of the banks that average a yield of 10% assuming the shares were bought just before the declaration at the peak price before declaration. That price should climb after the declaration to reflect the yield and prospects of the stock. For example, Zenith Bank pays about N3.50 on average which x 10 gives say N35.00. This price would hover about this price till new prospects emerge, then the climb. Notice also the price matches the last organic EPS x 4 ( adjust without the variations induced by the foreign exchange valuations). Same for UBA, GTCO, etc. You can cross-check, and notice they would roughly come within a Neighboring range of x4 eps-x5 eps or x10 dividends. The companies however with huge FDI yields average about 5% so best to use dividends x 20 approximately…. e.g. Breweries, Oil and gas, conglomerates, MTN, Airtel, etc. I only buy these stocks for price appreciation once the price shows it’s well below a price commensurate with a 5% yield e.g. NB at current price and sell off once it attains dividends x20. Holding such a stock till dividends would mean you have settled for a yield of about 5%.

In other words to put it simply… if sentiments anticipate a 5% yield meaning that those invested in the stock are happy with a 5% yield, then the price would reflect 5% but the earliest investors probably got the stocks at a premium. earning far more than the new investors e.g. Seplat. , NB, Guinness, etc. since they bought at prices far much lower in the past.

So check the average yield in the sector. That should help. But 10% for banks. (EPS X4 or dividends x 10 most times reflects the target price before new EPS or dividends) .

Would be happy to apply the calculations on the next report of a company with a good yield so you appreciate it better.

Hope this clarifies it a bit better.

. Thank you

aj8:



My Common Sense entry point :
Buy if price of stock is well below 80% of 4xEPS FY estimates to guarantee at least above 20% gain in the investment . The 4x EPS FY will become your target price and the range if still strong could be 4xEPS-5x EPS. provided the company has good Dividend payment history within the sector. If the Dividend payment is very poor, aim at 75% 0f 4xEPS as target price meaning you would have to enter even lower ( that’s at least below 80% of this target). Review targets as new EPS come in. Use only EPS that’s organic ( I.e based on pure corporate sweat).

REMEMBER TO INJECT DUE DILIGENCE IN EVERY PICK ESPECIALLY WHEN CURRENT PRICE IS ABOVE 4 X EPS.

Consider these hypothetical examples below:

1. A company released Q2 half year results at say N5.5 but is currently sell at N18.00 . Dividend payment is adjudged good. My target would be N44 and range N44-N55. I would buy.
2. A company with a full year results EPS of N1.05 currently selling at N1.00 should rally quickly to N4.00 if with good or improving fundamentals . I would buy and target exit at N4.00 except new EPS suggest otherwise.

3. A company with current price at N60.00 but EPS of N2.00 is not a buy for me as 4x EPS is only N8.00 . It remained however good for those who bought it earlier at less than N8.00 .

REMEMBER all strategies were derived at a point in time. This works for me and keeps my losses to a minimum.

.

Hello Chief

what would you term a good dividend payment history?
is it only in term of amount? or it is in terms of % of EPS or in terms of comparision to peers in same industry? or in term of years of unbroken payments? or in term of growth to the dividend being paid?

would appreciate if you share

emmanuelewumi:


Might affect the share price of small and weak banks.

. The recapitalisation is long due. 25 billion in usd as at 2005/2006 when the last recapitalisation was effected was 200 million dollars which at today rate should be 130 billion naira so i expect a recapitalisation requirement between 150 - 250 billion naira. That said the fugaz and a couple of others should be in safe zone. It can be expected that there would be flight to safety for both deposit and shares from those below this range to those comfortably above it. Selah

essentialone:
Oando is set to raise their price from 7.07 to 14.14

Sarcasm or insider tip?

BabsO2:


Management response to the two key hot questions.
Dividends will be restored sometime in future
Some agitating shareholders already exited. However the scheme process will go the whole hog. Only the remaining minority shareholders at the court ordered upcoming scheme meeting will determine the way forward based on 75% majority vote.

My take - body language and comment from Wale suggest those minority shareholders that want to exit have exited. But the comment from a key board member suggest caution, as it's minority shareholders that will determine way forward. That process must be concluded. Umm - Looks open ended - a buy out could still happen. However market has responded with full BID again following these answers. With zero offers. ZERO offers.

Dont be too optimistic

if Wale meant well why was the issue not on agenda?

since it is not on the AGM agenda, it mean that another EGM to solely consider the issue would have to hold but what is the possibility of that holding from today and before November 28 (barely three weeks away)

if you also put into consideration that the AGM/EGM guideline mandates AT LEAST 2 weeks notice. then it is certain that no EGM would hold before Nov 28 hence there would be no definite action from the court case by Nov 28 at best what you would have is another adjournment

People should tread carefully

robobo:


really i dont understand how anyone that is holding this stock would sell it for less than 25 (half PBV)

Although it might look like the current performance would not be sustainable given that the major component ( revaluation) is one off but i beg to differ.

On a back of the envelope basis, my take is that UBA EPS going forward would sustain the upward of N8 per share going forward even without revaluation. The revaluation alone add over N800b to the bank asset which if invested in TB at average of 13% is over N100bn profit per year (without any cost) to the bank bottom line i.e. about 3.50 per share which if added to the normalised EPS (before revaluation) of about 4.5 per share would give about N8 per share going forward even without revaluation. Please note that this view goes beyond 2023 to as much as 3-4 years ahead (bar any major mishap from the management)

if 35% of the N8 per share is paid as dividend one would expect a dividend of at least N2.50 (both interim and final) which at N25 per share is a yield of at least 10%.

so i dont understand how any one would want to sell below N25, but to each mallam his kettle.

Selah

Above was just after release of half year result when the price was struggling to hold on to the 15-17 price range


If Tony pay anything btw 3-4 in final dividend (which is very conservative at EPS already at 12.94) then be rest assured UBA would definitely go to high 20s / low 30s

BabsO2:


Directors mobbing the shares. A new word on this page
Or is a new development by directors when they are released to trade in their shares
Let us see how much they can mob.

i dont see it as mobbing, the total units bought is still under 40-million (for a coy with 34.2b outstanding shares).

i see it more as a signal that the owners of the company see more value in the company going forward at this present price (despite the fact that the price has had a run from 8 to 21 recently)\.

hence it is more of a signalling technique by TOE

hisexcellency34:
The company's share price has been on standstill after the terrorism funding admission

Hello Boss

Kindly enlighten me on this. Was Wapco linked to terror funding?

BabsO2:
Tony is doing well. He will be chairing two critical meetings next week Thursday and Friday - UBA and Transcorp respectively. Waiting for the good results that will propel the share prices comfortably above N20 and N7 respectively.

UBA has dusted FBNH and ACCESS behind for good.

Let the major shareholders collect all the FBNH rights at N15.5. That will be a new price resistance level for FBNH till a proper turnaround takes place there.

UBA is finding a twin to pair

robobo:


really i dont understand how anyone that is holding this stock would sell it for less than 25 (half PBV)

Although it might look like the current performance would not be sustainable given that the major component ( revaluation) is one off but i beg to differ.

On a back of the envelope basis, my take is that UBA EPS going forward would sustain the upward of N8 per share going forward even without revaluation. The revaluation alone add over N800b to the bank asset which if invested in TB at average of 13% is over N100bn profit per year (without any cost) to the bank bottom line i.e. about 3.50 per share which if added to the normalised EPS (before revaluation) of about 4.5 per share would give about N8 per share going forward even without revaluation. Please note that this view goes beyond 2023 to as much as 3-4 years ahead (bar any major mishap from the management)

if 35% of the N8 per share is paid as dividend one would expect a dividend of at least N2.50 (both interim and final) which at N25 per share is a yield of at least 10%.

so i dont understand how any one would want to sell below N25, but to each mallam his kettle.

Selah

.

..

Phlinx:
lol you guys are funny...that I'm Wale Tinubu


@robobo you didn't read carefully. Take:

OODP, the primary shareholder, is initiating a strategic plan to acquire all outstanding shares held by minority stakeholders, offering a scheme consideration that is 58 percent higher than the last traded share price of Oando. This move will lead to the delisting of Oando’s shares from the Nigerian Exchange and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.

https://thenewsnigeria.com.ng/2023/09/11/champion-extraordinaire-oando-boss-wale-tinubus-new-mega-deal/

Oga if na that one den na wrong figure u catch. the 58% was when the buyout offer was announced and oando was trading around 4.5-5

Mpeace:
Do not underestimate the calibre of people in this forum.
The guy might just be Wale himself or someone close.
Just like I dey suspect Mcy to be either Elumelu wife or Dangote pikin. Lol

i no kuku dey underestimate ooooo

i just wan use style send am back to dem wey give am the inside info say Street no go accept that amount at allllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

Phlinx:
The Oando bull of the past few weeks is over. Oando is now "falling in line" with the rest of the market.
However, I think the offer of N7.07 for all outstanding shares is no longer feasible there is a new offer already in the works to be proposed by management.
The new offer should be in the region of N12.15.

You can refer to the article below:

https://thenewsnigeria.com.ng/2023/09/11/champion-extraordinaire-oando-boss-wale-tinubus-new-mega-deal/

no where in the write up is the new offer of N12.15 mentioned

is this an inside information or personal speculations?

Zagee:


Good to see you have displayed the Scheme of Arrangement.

#AllEyesOnTheJudiciary? No?

There is no eye on judiciary

The court is not a father christmas that gift what is not asked for by litigants

so it was what was asked for by the 14 minority that the court granted

the question is doesn't the 14 minority know what the NGX /SEC rules says before they shortchanged themselves


I said it several months ago that the only thing that can stop Wale from this shananigan is a counter court directives / injunction

mikeapollo:


Wale is not the only lawyer in Nigeria. Many of the shareholders are also lawyers.
Lawyers do lose cases in court!

Oga dont count on it.

check my previous post when the buyout first broke several moons back for insight.

but i would be happy if you can PERSONALLY implement the litigation on behalf of other shareholders.

Selah

megawealth01:
OANDO matter eh... Una go explain tire... For now it's either you are investing or gambling

Wale na lawyer oooooo and i doubt if he can be beaten in this game.

una go soon see one part of the constitution wey dem go take counter una nowwww

Tpharell:
Where is your source vacanci?

the operative sentence is " six (6) months immediately preceding the date on which the notice of the AGM/EGM"

has the date of the AGM/EGM been decided yet?

if so count 6 months before then

if not then wait till date is notified and count 6 months before that date

kolaish:
The koko (highlight) of Oando is the 2022 audited result, which they have refused to release. It is that result that will disclose how much they made from disposing over 200 oando outlets to NNPC.

Let me also add that the 6 months H1 2023 would also be significant because of revaluations (for a glimpse, the only reason it declared profit in 2021 is revaluations gain). The coy is an upstream player that hold quite a number of its assets (fixed and variables) in USD, and if what happened to the banks is an indicator then that could be substantial. Although, the caveat in this case would be that whatever gain from this would not be cashflow backed because the asset being revalued would be physical (and not liquid cash like banks), nonetheless it should help repair its damaged balance sheet.

But would Wale release the result? i sincerely doubt if his intention is to delist.

Selah

BabsO2:


Perhaps also to give more time to release 2022 audited and 2023 quarterlies.

If Wale release 2022 FY and half year 2023 result before the delisting price is discussed at agm/egm that means he is not interested in the delisting

BabsO2:


Looks like that may be the reason the big bids dropped. Leaving offers to out number bids.

i say Wale go give some people hypertension.

them neva know who dem dey follow deal

Shege pro max 2

Tpharell:

I don’t think the minority shareholders will be saying anything. Oando will report to the court on its compliance with its order

which compliance are they reporting on? They have offered something (7.07) but not called a meeting for the minority to accept or reject, so where is the compliance?

crownprince2017:
Oando on full offer, who get mind to enter.

Wale is messing with people's mind

Payunsin:
The 14 minority shareholders that went to court has already sold their shares during the last rally. No case to answer again.
Shareholders left are like me who is gambling on the long term prospects of Oando.
I see N25 in near term

Oga i beg no let me fight you oooooo

what is N25 ?

After 10 years in Wale dungeon

i beg na N65 we dey look as advised by Oga Zageee