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Foreign Affairs / Re: The Key Takeaway From The Iranian Retaliation On Israel: This Is A Deterrence by rottennaija(m): 7:34pm
NwaliE01:


Where did you get this humongous figure from?
I think you need to google how many anti air missles are in one battery?
Abeg, make we beg baba in Aso Rock to buy air defence for us.
I no trust our neighbours again.

Israel spent $1.3b. US, UK, France spent how? We don't know. This was for an attack of 5 hours.

If Iran sustain the attack for 24 hours, that's how they will spend $5b

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Foreign Affairs / Re: The Key Takeaway From The Iranian Retaliation On Israel: This Is A Deterrence by rottennaija(m): 2:39pm
id4sho:

I disagree with this, hope IRAN got some good air defense system too

It's still significantly bigger than Israel by more than 100%. So they can cover everywhere. So Israel can high some low value target and leave the rest to main stream media propaganda
Foreign Affairs / Re: The Key Takeaway From The Iranian Retaliation On Israel: This Is A Deterrence by rottennaija(m): 2:37pm
NwaliE01:


Where did you get this humongous figure from?
I think you need to google how many anti air missles are in one battery?
Abeg, make we beg baba in Aso Rock to buy air defence for us.
I no trust our neighbours again.

Light you no get, na AD you dey look for?
Foreign Affairs / Re: The Key Takeaway From The Iranian Retaliation On Israel: This Is A Deterrence by rottennaija(m): 12:39pm
BREAKING:

🇮🇷 Iran released footage of missile launches towards Israel

Estimated military cost of last night's operations based on the figures published in the media:

110 ballistic missiles: 30-50 million dollars

45 cruise missiles: 4-7 million dollars

170 Shahed-136: 4-5 million dollars

Total: 62-38 million dollars

The collective West spent 1.1 billion dollars defending Israel

@Megatron_ron
rottennaija:
Also, you can’t win a war where you have to spend $5 billion a day on missile defense.

Also, this is assuming the batteries can stay loaded the entire time. If you can’t produce enough missiles, Israel will be leveled.

Foreign Affairs / Re: The Key Takeaway From The Iranian Retaliation On Israel: This Is A Deterrence by rottennaija(m): 12:21pm
On Iran’s strike:

At Stanford, I attended a masterclass on military strategy led by a person with decades of experience, including serving at the highest levels in the military and government.

One lesson he thought that I always remember was this:

He asked us:

“Say the US decided to attack Iraq with a new stealth jet it hadn’t used before that evaded all radars? The attack was a success. Was it strategic?”

Many in the class raised their hands to say “yes, it achieved its goal”. But the professor said: “It may not have been”.

Why?

“Because now your adversaries know your capabilities and it’s a matter of time before they find ways around them. If this attack could be done with conventional weapons, it’s better to keep your top weapons until you need them. Using them creates a disadvantage.”

My analysis is that the scale of Iran’s attack, the diversity of locations it targeted, and weapons it used, forced Israel to uncover the majority of anti-missile technologies the US and it have across the region.

The Iranians did not use any weapons Israel didn’t know it had, it just used a lot of them. But the Iranians likely now have almost a full map of what Israel’s missile defence system looks like, as well as where in Jordan and the Gulf the US has installations. It also knows how long it takes to prepare them, how Israeli society responds…etc

This is a huge strategic cost to Israel, while Arab regimes now are being blasted by their peoples, particularly the Jordanian monarchy, for not doing anything to protect Gazans but then going all out to protect Israel.

Crucially, Iran can now reverse engineer all the intel gathered from this attack to make a much more deadly one credible. While the US and Israel will have to re-design away from their current model which has been compromised. Its success in stopping this choreographed attack is thus still very costly.

Moreover, with the threat of a regional war that neither the US nor the Arab regimes want feeling nearer, it’s likely their pressure on Israel to back down will increase, making a ceasefire more feasible.

Anyone assuming this is just theatrics is missing the context of how militaries assess strategy versus tactics. Theatre is an important factor, but gathering intelligence of the “enemy’s” posture is more valuable, especially if one believes they’re in a long war of attrition.

Netanyahu and the Israel government prefer a quick hot and urgent war where they can pull in America. The Iranians prefer a longer war of attrition that bleeds Israel of its deterrence capabilities and makes it an ally for Arabs and the US that’s too costly to have.

Lastly, if you are a person who hates war, if you want peace, the best and only way to get there in the region is to support the Palestinian struggle for freedom, justice and dignity.

There is no sustainable peace possible as long as Palestinians live under an oppressive system of apartheid.

https://twitter.com/fadiquran/status/1779426300760850642?t=a8ABBjFWWO2FLi1C8Wuy0A&s=19

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Foreign Affairs / Re: The Key Takeaway From The Iranian Retaliation On Israel: This Is A Deterrence by rottennaija(m): 12:12pm
Watch the videos https://twitter.com/ThorntonWa47373/status/1779459964060246515?t=Nuhi_jxOv9iZzmh5sbmvNg&s=19


WHAT HAPPENED ?

For some time, Israeli air defences successfully dealt with missiles, by morning more footage began to appear of Iranian missiles breaking through Israeli air defences and delivering powerful blows to military infrastructure.

#IsraelIranWar

Foreign Affairs / Re: The Key Takeaway From The Iranian Retaliation On Israel: This Is A Deterrence by rottennaija(m): 12:09pm
Also, you can’t win a war where you have to spend $5 billion a day on missile defense.

Also, this is assuming the batteries can stay loaded the entire time. If you can’t produce enough missiles, Israel will be leveled.

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Foreign Affairs / The Key Takeaway From The Iranian Retaliation On Israel: This Is A Deterrence by rottennaija(m): 12:08pm
THE KEY TAKEAWAY FROM THE IRANIAN RETALIATION ON ISRAEL:

This is a deterrence win for Iran.

Had Israel been taken by surprise and not had the days long preparation to mitigate the impact of an Iranian attack this large, the damage would have been huge.

There is no way Israel could have intercepted hundreds of Iranian missiles without a week of its allies putting defenses in place and Iran intentionally taking its time.

A real war would NOT be telegraphed in advance so Israel can prepare with a symphony of air defenses from its allies.

Biden understands the risks posed by further escalation, especially to US forces, which is why he told Netanyahu he will not back an Israeli counterstrike.

The equation in the region has changed and Iran did it masterfully and responsibly without igniting the big war.

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Foreign Affairs / Re: Hundreds Protest In Niger Demanding Departure Of US Troops by rottennaija(m): 12:06pm
Jostoman:
you may not understand the game they are playing in Africa.

Please
Foreign Affairs / Re: Hundreds Protest In Niger Demanding Departure Of US Troops by rottennaija(m): 10:36am
Jostoman:
Russia, Russia, Russia how many times did i call you.

What did Russia do this time?
Foreign Affairs / Re: Hundreds Protest In Niger Demanding Departure Of US Troops by rottennaija(m): 10:36am
TemplarLandry:
All these Almajeris with herd mentality.
US is gone from Niger. Nothing they can do.
Foreign Affairs / Re: ⚡️BREAKING The British, France Is Calling Its Citizens In Israel To Leave by rottennaija(m): 10:35am
Newton2024:
Iran is still your source instead of US or France. You terrorists sha like deceiving yourself. grin

Even in dreams, Ayatollah would not think about attacking Israel. I don't know why terrorists and terrorists sympathizers are deluded.

Are you still waiting for Iran to respond? The die is cast. It's now in Israel court.
Foreign Affairs / Re: Trump And His Republican Hardliners: Riding On Ukrainian Blood To The White Hous by rottennaija(m): 3:16am
tolastikha:
Introduction:
The relationship between the United States, Ukraine, and Russia has been a topic of significant concern in recent years. This article aims to explore the alleged connections between President Donald Trump, his Republican allies, and their stance on Ukraine, suggesting that they may have prioritized their own political interests over supporting Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. It is important to note that the claims made in this article are based on available information and public discourse.

Trump's Alleged Ties to Russia:
Throughout his presidency, Donald Trump has faced scrutiny regarding his alleged ties to Russia. While the investigation by Special Counsel Robert Mueller did not establish conclusive evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia during the 2016 election, questions about Trump's relationship with Russia remain. These allegations have fueled speculation about whether Trump's policies towards Ukraine are influenced by his personal interests rather than the national interest of the United States.

Republican Congressional Denial of Ukrainian Military Support:
One notable aspect of Trump's presidency has been the reluctance of some Republican legislators to provide military support to Ukraine. The denial of military aid to Ukraine, particularly in its conflict with Russia, has raised concerns about the motives behind this decision. Critics argue that Trump and his Republican allies may have prioritized their own political interests over the security and well-being of Ukraine.

Allegations of Hoodwinking and Manipulation:
Critics suggest that Trump has manipulated Republican lawmakers to align their policies with Russia's interests, specifically in the context of the conflict with Ukraine. This alleged manipulation has resulted in the denial of crucial military support to Ukraine, further exacerbating the ongoing conflict. Some argue that Trump's actions have effectively hoodwinked Republican legislators into working for the victory of Russian President Vladimir Putin in the war with Ukraine.

The Preciousness of Ukrainian Blood:
Ukraine has suffered greatly as a result of its conflict with Russia, with thousands of lives lost and countless others displaced. It is crucial to recognize the value of human life and the importance of standing up against aggression and injustice. Ukrainians' blood, shed in the pursuit of freedom and self-determination, should serve as a rallying call for Americans to support Ukraine in its struggle against Russian aggression.

The Importance of the November Presidential Election:
Given the allegations surrounding Trump's relationship with Russia and his stance on Ukraine, it becomes imperative for Americans to carefully consider their vote in the upcoming November presidential election. The election presents an opportunity for Americans to voice their opinion and take a stance against any perceived injustices. By voting against Trump, Americans can demonstrate their solidarity with Ukraine and send a strong message that Ukrainian blood is more precious than any White House seat.

Conclusion:
The alleged connections between Trump, his Republican allies, and their stance on Ukraine have raised concerns about the prioritization of personal political interests over national security and international justice. It is essential for Americans to stay informed, critically analyze the available information, and consider the implications of their vote in the November presidential election. By standing with Ukraine, Americans can affirm their commitment to supporting democratic values, protecting human rights, and opposing any form of aggression and manipulation.

Tola O. Ajimisogbe is a postgraduate student of Strategic Management, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Anambra State.


Who send Ukraine? Who? When Trump asked Zelensky to make peace with Russia, wasn't he laughing Trump?
Foreign Affairs / Re: ⚡️BREAKING The British, France Is Calling Its Citizens In Israel To Leave by rottennaija(m): 6:26pm On Apr 12
Let's spend coffee time playing a little wargame in which the US decides to take on Iran and commit to a full war against it

Look at this map. Where could the US stage an invasion of Iran?

To Iran's east: you'll find Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan. A big triple no.
To Iran's south: the Persian Gulf which it completely dominates. No good.
To Iran's west: Iraq and Turkiye. The first a definite no, the second, a no so probable it must be considered a certain. Turkiye will not go to war with Iran for the US and Israel - a war not only sure to decimate it, but a war Turkich people will be fanatically against.
To Iran's north is the Caspian Sea. No use.

Azerbaijan and Armenia present an opening, but how will hundreds of thousands of NATO soldiers get there (let alone undetected)? If they go by sea, they will need to traverse the Mediterranean and the Black Sea and virtually physically go through Istanbul. Not only politically complicated, but a long long journey that gives Iran tons of time to prepare.

Remember the months and months the US took to amass forces for the Iraq invasion? It took 6 months or so - with no interruptions.

The problem is, with Iran, there's no way they're going to simply build up forces near the designated target's borders.

Iran has an arsenal of hundreds of thousands of guided and precise ballistic missiles, satellites in space and eyes almost everywhere. If a war is declared or started, every American asset within 0-3000 kilometers of Iran's borders will be bombarded so viciously no missile defense system will be able to stop it.

And all those dozens and dozens of American bases scattered throughout the vast area surrounding Iran? How will the US defend them under an attack on a scale of 1000 October 7th's combined?

Additionally, Iran has the most sophisticated anti-ship missiles in the world (Russia's Yakhont), of which it probably has thousands by now. This means no surface ship is going to be able to come close enough to Iran to make it an effective striking weapon (is this going to be the first time we get to see an aircraft carrier drowning? I believe potentially yes).

The US will have to rely on air superiority, but this is going to prove a very difficult, almost impossible task. US planes will have to fly a long way to get to Iran (and back), and it has invested massively in air defense systems, including some of the most sophisticated in Russia's arsenal. The US will lose many planes which will take years to replenish, and Iran will be able to target with ballistic missiles and drones all the bases from which they take off in Europe or the Middle East.

Another tool the US will use is cruise missiles fired from submarines: but this, too, does not win wars, and can be costly against a rival that prepared for this.

A full-scale invasion of Iran will require potentially millions of soldiers and will take years. The West is simply incapable of an effort of this kind: where will they find millions of young men willing to die at sea in order to occupy a country thousands of miles away? Today? Give me a break.

All this time the Iranians will be defending their home and their independence. The West will be trying to colonize and destroy them. They will have Gaza on their minds.
-
I didn't mention Israel because it is virtually irrelevant in this war. Hizbullah alone is enough to paralyze it and keep its military busy for months.
-
Bonus point: think about what happens to energy prices in an actual war with Iran. 500$ for an oil barrel? 1000$? 2000$? All is possible.

Guess what country will remain the biggest international producer and exporter of oil and gas, and rip all those extra many, many trillions. You guessed tight. Russia. If the Persian Gulf is up in flames, Russia will become a global economic superpower (at a time when the US is dwindled militarily and economically and cannot even fake a military threat against it).
-
Another bonus point: you think Iran cannot, or will not attack on American soil? Think again. From cyber attacks to large-scale, professional, military-level sabotage and guerrilla warfare, in a war with Iran life in the US will definitely not be business as usual, and not only because inflation will be something 200%, and thousands of dead soldiers will return home in coffins every month for a long time.
-
The US cannot win a war against Iran. And I believe all parties involved know it. The only thing that remains unknown is how insane and self-destructive the US has become under Netanyahu's and AIPAC's, how shall we call it, influence

https://twitter.com/alon_mizrahi/status/1778745488327549080?t=Ts3quaquEr0WpqAXR531Vw&s=19

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Foreign Affairs / Re: ⚡️BREAKING The British, France Is Calling Its Citizens In Israel To Leave by rottennaija(m): 6:03pm On Apr 12
US official says Iran may attack Israel as soon as today.

🇰🇼🇶🇦 Kuwait & Qatar inform the United States that they will not allow bases on their land to be used for attacks against Iran.

Foreign Affairs / Re: ⚡️BREAKING The British, France Is Calling Its Citizens In Israel To Leave by rottennaija(m): 6:01pm On Apr 12
🇮🇷🇬🇧 The Telegraph:

“If Iran strikes Israel, Britain MUST attack.”

🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡

Foreign Affairs / Re: ⚡️BREAKING The British, France Is Calling Its Citizens In Israel To Leave by rottennaija(m): 5:58pm On Apr 12
Israel is under threat of imminent attack by Iran. President Biden needs to warn the ayatollahs immediately that the United States will back Israel to the hilt and the joint American-Israeli retaliation for any attack will be swift and devastating.

Foreign Affairs / Re: ⚡️BREAKING The British, France Is Calling Its Citizens In Israel To Leave by rottennaija(m): 5:50pm On Apr 12
Who the hell are half these people? Did Israel have to take this many calls before bombing an embassy?

Foreign Affairs / Re: Prof. John Mearsheimer: Israel's Dangerous Game by rottennaija(m): 5:46pm On Apr 12
The US is now begging - BEGGING - for Israel.

Foreign Affairs / Re: Prof. John Mearsheimer: Israel's Dangerous Game by rottennaija(m): 5:46pm On Apr 12
motayoayinde:


This interview made my day.
Thanks for sharing bro

You are welcome
Foreign Affairs / Re: Prof. John Mearsheimer: Israel's Dangerous Game by rottennaija(m): 3:27pm On Apr 12

Foreign Affairs / Prof. John Mearsheimer: Israel's Dangerous Game by rottennaija(m): 3:27pm On Apr 12

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Foreign Affairs / Re: ⚡️BREAKING The British, France Is Calling Its Citizens In Israel To Leave by rottennaija(m): 2:17pm On Apr 12
⚡️BREAKING

Qatar and Kuwait have informed the US that they cannot use their bases on their territories against Iran

This move basically reduces US capabilities significantly in the region

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Foreign Affairs / ⚡️BREAKING The British, France Is Calling Its Citizens In Israel To Leave by rottennaija(m): 1:38pm On Apr 12
⚡️BREAKING

The British Foreign Office is calling on British citizens in Israel to leave the country immediately

France has asked its citizens to refrain from traveling to Iran and Israel and the families of French diplomats in Tehran have been repatriated to France

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Foreign Affairs / Re: US Will Hold China Responsible For The Advance Of The Russian IN Ukraine by rottennaija(m): 8:38am On Apr 12
Elena Panina, Director of the Institute of International Studies: It's time for the West to prepare for the unconditional surrender of PMCs Ukraine.

"Very soon, the only topic for any international meetings on Ukraine will be the unconditional surrender of the Kiev regime. I advise all of you to prepare for this in advance," Russian Permanent Representative to the organization Vasily Nebenzia said at a meeting of the UN Security Council.

Nebenzie's statement is directly addressed by the Western curator of Zelensky's Nazi regime. According to the Russian representative to the UN, "Ukraine today is nothing more than a private military company fighting for the West and with Western weapons to the last Ukrainian."

Nebenzie's statement, among other things, is directly related to Kiev's refusal to immediately arrest and extradite to Russia those involved in terrorist attacks on Russian territory. The Russian Foreign Ministry handed over the relevant request to the Ukrainian authorities within the framework of the International Convention for the Suppression of Terrorist Bombings (ICBTT) and the International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism (ICBFT).

It seems that things are moving towards the official declaration of the Kiev elite as accomplices and harborers of terrorists, and Ukraine itself as a terrorist state.

Foreign Affairs / US Will Hold China Responsible For The Advance Of The Russian IN Ukraine by rottennaija(m): 8:32am On Apr 12
This people are running mad🤣🤣🤣


⚡️News from the Twilight Zone 😎

🇺🇸 The United States will hold China responsible for the advance of the Russian army in Ukraine, - US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell.

According to him, Washington will regard the advance of the Russian Army not as “unique actions by Russia,” but as “a combined set of actions supported by China, as well as North Korea,” Deutsche Welle reports.

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Foreign Affairs / Re: ‼️ US / Israel Threats Against Iran Are Almost Certainly A Bluff Here's Why by rottennaija(m): 8:00am On Apr 12
🇹🇷Acc to Turlish analysts:

Russia produces 8,000 bombs of the FAB and KAB series with a caliber of 250 to 1,500 kg per month, a significant amount is being prepared for air strikes as gliding bombs.

Russia uses 500-600 glide bombs per day.

There are already tens of thousands of them in warehouses. Once Russia increases production beyond daily consumption, it will increase bombing to above 1,000 bombs per day

Foreign Affairs / Re: ‼️ US / Israel Threats Against Iran Are Almost Certainly A Bluff Here's Why by rottennaija(m): 5:15am On Apr 12
The extraordinary failure of "Operation Prosperity Guardian"

There's rarely been a more extraordinary military failure as "operation prosperity guardian", it's almost unbelievable.

Think about that: an operation announced by Lloyd Austin in December as a broad coalition of the US Navy, the Royal Navy, the Royal Australian Navy, the Royal Bahrain Naval Force, the Royal Canadian Navy, the Royal Danish Navy, the Finnish Navy, the Hellenic Navy, the Royal Netherlands Navy, the Royal New Zealand Navy, the Royal Norwegian Navy, the Republic of Singapore Navy and the Sri Lanka Navy...

against... Ansarallah [the Houthis].

At the time the Pentagon was all gung ho, officially telling Ansarallah: "They really need to ask themselves if they've bitten off more than they can chew".

And turns out, they hadn't! 3 months later the "prosperity guardian" coalition is suing for peace and offering an extraordinary array of concession, including "lifting Yemen's siege entirely, repairing the damages, removing foreign forces from all occupied Yemeni lands and islands, and removing Ansarallah from the State Department’s ‘terrorism list’".

Ansarallah, undeterred, say they will "continue operations as long as Israeli aggression against Gaza persists".

Genuinely incredible.

https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1778620453411864661?t=gu9Y8RZgkWlwVae3fDO3mw&s=19

1 Like

Foreign Affairs / ‼️ US / Israel Threats Against Iran Are Almost Certainly A Bluff Here's Why by rottennaija(m): 5:10am On Apr 12
‼️ US / Israel Threats Against Iran Are Almost Certainly A Bluff

Here's why I think so:

Russia and China have now made their mutual defense alliance EXPLICIT.

But, as tensions with Iran rise to a boil, few seem aware that both Russia and China now regard Iran as a KEY geopolitical ally and a paramount geostrategic interest — and have therefore forged long-term economic and military agreements with Iran.

Russia and China will NOT stand idly by as the US and Israel make war against Iran.

That said, Iran can almost certainly defend itself quite successfully for at least many weeks against a US / Israel air campaign. In fact, in the face of even a few dozen aircraft losses, and severe damage to US bases in the region, I believe the US would seek an early exit from the conflict.

The simple fact is that US air power as a theater-wide undertaking could not be sustained in the context of a non-permissive battlefield against a peer adversary.

As for Israel — without direct and massive US assistance, the Israelis could not sustain a credible air campaign against Iran, and the Iranians would inflict substantial damage against both Israeli aircraft and their bases.

US/Israeli strike missile inventories would be exhausted LONG BEFORE the Iranians lost the capacity to shoot back.

And, make no mistake, if the Iranians ask for material assistance from Russia and/or China, they will not be denied.

The Russians and the Chinese are FAR PAST being intimidated by US threats. They will act without hesitation to protect their interests. They understand perfectly well that the US military is fatally overextended and acutely depleted.

In light of these realities, I remain highly dubious that the US will make open war against Iran.

In fact, if the Iranians do little more than execute a relatively proportional counterstrike against Israel in retaliation for the Iranian embassy attack, I don't believe the US/Israel will escalate the situation any further. I think their tough talk in recent days is nothing but an empty bluff.

https://twitter.com/imetatronink/status/1778569415757611519?t=6_E-RW7Y_7qwP0q0D1ImoQ&s=19

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Foreign Affairs / Re: Breaking - Israel 'can Handle' Any Threat From Iran, Says Military Chief by rottennaija(m): 2:06pm On Apr 11
dangermouse:



In your mind cheesy

A country hell bent on destroying another country can never stand.

Israel is waiting. We wan check something.

People like you were cheering up Ukraine 2 years ago. Today, we are witnessing the end of Ukraine as a viable nation. Very soon, we will witness the end of Israel a nation.

Foreign Affairs / Re: Breaking - Israel 'can Handle' Any Threat From Iran, Says Military Chief by rottennaija(m): 10:14am On Apr 11
misreal:

If you can still be on nairaland with this same moniker till now,why should I leave nairaland if Iran destroys Israel, that is if wishes were horses.
I remember you were part of the people rejoicing over the attack on Israel on oct7th,when Israel started hammering Hamas,you started shouting genocide.
If you can still be on nairaland till now,why should I deactivate this account.

You don't remember shit because I never rejoiced over it. Meanwhile, Hamas has every reason to do what they did. A slave who does not fight back cannot be pitied.

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