💥🧵The United States Could Not Win and Will Not Fight a War Against Russia

A full year has now passed since I published the article linked below.

I have linked to it often over the past year, undoubtedly to the annoyance of many of my longer-term followers, from whom I beg forbearance yet again.

But I've also, for better or worse, been averaging over 1500 new followers per week for many weeks, and I desire that they also consider what I wrote about this war back in early July 2022.

I just finished carefully re-reading it myself. I would not change a thing. Indeed, I am struck by how much it is more apropos now than it was a year ago.

I cite and link to US Army Col. (Ret) Alex Vershinin's all-important analysis regarding The Return of Industrial Warfare, which had appeared in RUSI a couple weeks prior to my substack article.

I cannot recommend highly enough Col. Vershinin's short but powerful essay. IT IS A MUST READ!

Everything he foresaw has now been confirmed by events.

And, as I have frequently framed it over the past year:

The Masters of Empire now face a no-win scenario. They must abandon their failed Ukraine gambit — and ultimately yield to maximalist Russian demands regarding the roll-back of NATO to its pre-1997 borders — or else yield themselves to the mad impulse of a futile attempt to subjugate Russia by force of arms.

Either way, the decline of the empire will be radically accelerated; NATO will almost immediately cease to function as a credible military/political alliance; the EU will dissolve as a monetary/political "union"; the demise of the global dollar system will rapidly gain momentum.

Many, if not most, find risible the assertion that these things could possibly come to pass in anything like the near- or medium-term (2 - 5 years).

With great trepidation, I increasingly expect they will be proven mistaken.

The United States Could Not Win and Will Not Fight a War Against Russia

‼️ Reality Check

Many people continue to believe Russia would be, if not at risk of major setbacks, at least severely intimidated by the prospect of France and Britain directly intervening in Ukraine.

It's an absurd fantasy.

France and the UK could not equip and sustain even two divisions for more than just a few weeks, and would then be effectively demilitarized for many years to come.

As for the reflexive assertion of many that the US cavalry would then ride over the ridge to save the day — white hats gleaming in the sun and guns a'blazing ... well, I cannot add to what I first wrote in July 2022:

The US Could Not Win and Will Not Fight A War Against Russia

handsomeyinka:

No so u hate USA?

You think US loves you?

AuschwitzPrefec:


This is what I have been shouting here for 7ys straight !

Those Zionist Christians do not even know the level of hatred the Jew they have substituted for Christ has for them.

I'm waiting to see their response to these developments

🤣🤣🤣
Where is Righteousness and Holiness

FreeStuffsNG:

Electricity has greatly improved. The major current problem now is pricing. The subsidy keeps mounting and FG knows it's not sustainable to keep the subsidies. If people price electricity well and pay for it they will demand for the best service but if FG keeps subsidising it there will be too much wastages and inefficiency like predominates before now.

Improve in your house?

If the US weaponizes the dollar against China, the world will panic.

China will have a good reason to expedite de-dollarization.

Prices in the US will skyrocket.

The 1% won't feel it. But for 99% of Americans, it will be more painful than fentanyl withdrawal.

#6

If I were an American, I would be worried and fight for reform.

The US economy stands on quicksand compared to other major world powers.

When (not if) it collapses, there is no coming back.

#7

China is fighting an extinction-level financial war.

Yellen asked China to buy $400B US debt and failed.

So, the US retaliates by not lowering interest rates, which chokes China's stock market.

Blinken also failed to threaten Beijing to end trade with Russia.

What's next?

#1

The US military keeps the printing press going.

But, even if the US quits its war addiction now, its debt will reach $54 trillion by 2034.

Soon, the world can't absorb so much USD.

America is on an unstoppable train to a total collapse.

There is only one outcome.

#2

The US is desperate to start WW3 to wipe its debt clean.

The only way to delay the war is if China injects cash into the American economy.

China says NO.

So, the US just started a financial war with China.

Here is what's happening.

#3

China is transitioning its economy.

Beijing wants more private firms to innovate. To do that, China needs a more robust investment market.

But capital keeps flowing to the US bc of high interest rates.

The US may even try to nuke China's manufacturing.

#4

The US may cut Chinese banks from the international money exchange system to paralyze China's manufacturing.

But It will be like the Huawei case.

It will hurt for 3 years, but it will also force China to crush the US's economy once and for all. And prepare for a real war.

#5

BREAKING:

🇮🇱🇱🇧 Hezbollah is bombing northern Israel tonight

Hezbollah: 'We have attacked the Israeli settlement of 'Meron' and its adjacent Air Command Base with dozens of Katyusha rockets'

Israeli media report that it was the largest attack on the Meron Air Command Base so far, and that its radars have been severely damaged.

Watch the videos in link below
https://twitter.com/Megatron_ron/status/1784353187782144445?t=IZJgoWhWX8wNkfe-cXzOUw&s=19

US NATO clowns coukd not even deter Yemen but want to take on China and Russia...

⚡️ Aces

With the recent shootdowns of 2 MQ-9 Reaper drones, the Yemeni have now achieved double-ace status against US-made aircraft:

- At least 6 MQ-9 Reaper drones

- 3 F-16s + 2 F-15s

Just imagine what the Iranians, Russians, or Chinese could do ...

🤣🤣🤣
So airtel went ahead and brand a TV box with a router? I was thinking they would use the opportunity of having an airtel TV app to stream live football matches

obiekunie01:
they should stop using our reserve to stabilizer Naira.


this problem can be solved within 2 years if we pay attention to agriculture.

The government should disburse grants to farmers nationwide and setup committee to monitor the grant beneficiaries.

by next harvest, food will be plentiful and their will be food surplus.

The government chose propaganda over real things. Now we are facing it

OfficialAPCNig:

Destroyed Iran S300 air defense system in Istaghan, their major nuclear programme site.

The funny thing is this the s300 is the most sophisticated in their arsenal.

Una funny o. Did the S300 explode?

OfficialAPCNig:
You fired 331 UAVs and missiles and 99.9% were shot down.

Israel fired 1 missiles and 3 detour quadcopters (not even a better drone) and the missile evaded your air defense system and destroyed it.

And you are bragging to utterly destroy Israel, a nuclear-armed country?

Iran is even more f00lish than their Nairaland supporters.

Where did the missile hit?

Paraman:


rottennaija has broken rule 2

Paraman:
So Obi want the Government to fix all the roads all over Nigeria in less than 1 year?Mumu man

This is the same way some idiots were wailing about Eko Atlantic City when Tinubu started the project.

How many rules did you break?

EmeeNaka:
Peter Obi is right. The so called coastal highway from Lagos- Calabar is a huge project such as which Nigeria has no history of completing. That is why they started constructing from Lagos axis, just to ensure that Lagos is completed before the 8years or 4 years tenure elapses. We know about East-West Road that had taken ages, yet not completed.
It is important for Federal government to put in place a plan for adequate funding of all uncompleted Federal Road project littered across the country before embarking on another monumental projects.

This is exactly what I said. They cannot never complete this road. So they start from Lagos so that they will finish that axis and leave the rest.

socialmediaman:


Based on the image you provided, what happened around here (circled area)?

It also aligns with images from BBC inferring probable damage: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68866548

Nothing but shadow.

rottennaija:

socialmediaman post=129554735:


But how do you know it didn't happen? Israel isn't invincible by the way, you just don't want to mess with them because while they have their own firepower, they won't be fighting or defending alone

Try watch this. It was all a very loud propaganda machine a work. We saw the same machine at work with Ukraine is winning, Russia is fighting with shovels, Russia is stealing microchips from dishwashers.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zjq5fsvbGuo?si=xWzhdF4sY9FJRtjC

I'll say anything coming from western media in this time and age should be taken with a pinch of salt

You can see more here
https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1781996881880691082?t=7Gzq88BrpB0gEhb1Gzsf0g&s=19

and here

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1782076925734703562?t=smNPBUeNhkQzWkrD77VKIw&s=19



There is a reason these guys rush to push these misinformation. Because when it grabs the headline, people don't really stick around to hear the truth, meanwhile, their falsehood had spread everywhere. And then, it massages their ego.

You need to understand the sequence of events. After Iran retaliated, Israel said 99% interception. Nothing was hit. Col. Douglas McGregor said the following day in Twitter that Israel was hit really bad, that they are covering up.

Israel showed some fake pictures. It was immediately debunk. Then images started coming out of the impacts, and destroyed fighter jets. Even some mossad agent were blown to pieces that night.

Then days later, Israel now said they had 88%(or there about, can't remember exactly) interception. Then they started planning for a retaliation. US told them we can't join you in it.

So the whole thing was perfected curated to make Israel look tuff. US asked Iran to allow Israel blow up some empty building somewhere, Iran rejected and told US, we are not messing around anymore. Another clue was, the forex, crypto market didn't turn red during the so-called Israel response.

socialmediaman:


But how do you know it didn't happen? Israel isn't invincible by the way, you just don't want to mess with them because while they have their own firepower, they won't be fighting or defending alone

Try watch this. It was all a very loud propaganda machine a work. We saw the same machine at work with Ukraine is winning, Russia is fighting with shovels, Russia is stealing microchips from dishwashers.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zjq5fsvbGuo?si=xWzhdF4sY9FJRtjC

I'll say anything coming from western media in this time and age should be taken with a pinch of salt

socialmediaman:
Israel, in it's limited-scope retaliatory attack on Iran a few days ago, took out Russian-made Air defense systems in Iran, as reported on the news

Do you notice a similar pattern with what Israel did to Egypt during the Six-Day war in 1967 between Arab nations and Israel?

Chief these things didn't happen. Israel didn't take out any Iranian air defense. The news is circulated among western mainstream media. It's a lie designed to continue the myth of Israel invincibility. That's why it made front page in nairaland.

vanbonattel:
The same people still defending fraud and criminality. We're not surprised.

When Tinubu leaves, all these people doing the dirty work for him will also have EFCC come after them, especially the current EFCC chairman

Dear Georgian people,

For most of the 20th Century you enjoyed peace and prosperity as part of the Soviet Union, where you lived in harmony with your Russian neighbors.

In 1991 you allowed nationalists to lead you down a path of national suicide, prematurely declaring independence from the Soviet Union, and foregoing the normalization of relations with Russia in the false pursuit of western prosperity.

The West ignored you.

In 1991-2 nationalists instigated a Civil War in South Ossetia which tore your nation apart, leading to civil conflict and ethnic cleansing.

Russia intervened as a peacekeeper.

The West ignored you.

In 1992-3 nationalists instigated a Civil War in Abkhazia which led to the loss of that territory, the deaths of tens of thousands, and more than 250,000 Georgians ethnically cleansed.

Russia offered to intervene to save Abkhazia. The Georgian government rebuked the Russian offer.

The West ignored you.

In 1993 nationalists started a Civil War that threatened to tear your nation apart.

Russia offered to intervene to save Georgia.

You accepted the Russian offer.

Georgia was saved.

The West ignored you.

In 2003 the West pushed you to overthrow your government, tempting you with promises of EU and NATO membership.

In 2003 the West had you deploy your troops to Iraq.

In 2004 the West had you deploy your troops to Afghanistan.

The Russians did nothing to you.

In 2008 Russia was engaged in active negotiations with Georgia for the return of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

The West ordered your government to stop negotiations, and instead use your army which the West had helped you build to invade South Ossetia.

You invaded, killing Russian peacekeepers in their sleep.

Russia counterattacked, destroying your army.

Russia stopped short of taking Tbilisi, which was left undefended.

The West did nothing to help you.

In 2014 the West provoked a war with Russia in Ukraine.

The West promised to stand by Ukraine forever.

The West promised Ukraine EU and NATO membership.

In 2022 Russia counterattacked.

Ukraine is being destroyed.

There is no EU membership,

There is no NATO membership.

There is only death and destruction.

In 2024 the West is trying to buy Georgian politicians in an effort to open a second front against Russia.

The West offers EU membership.

The West offers NATO membership.

Russia offers peace and co-prosperity.

Georgia, the choice is yours:

A path of peace and prosperity that leads through Moscow.

Or a path of war and total destruction that leads through Brussels.

Remember: Russia cares for you.

The West is only using you for its larger purposes.

If you choose the Brussels path, you will die.

If you choose the Moscow path, you will thrive.

Choose wisely.

https://twitter.com/RealScottRitter/status/1781685198150594780?t=snxgV1yenhbg0IHxo9Bn4Q&s=19

Manny21:
The leaders manipulating the masses for their selfish benefits and interests.

The masses are also tired of the west. You are you not tire of the west ?

The U.S. has an advanced AN/TPY-2 X-band radar stationed at Har Qeren, in the Negev desert.

Its mission is to detect Iranian missile launches, and pass targeting data to Israeli Arrow and David’s Sling and U.S. THAAD ABM batteries deployed to protect sensitive Israeli sites, including Dimona and the Nevatim and Ramon air bases.

Iranian missiles struck both Nevatim and Ramon air bases.

The best surveillance radar in the world, working in concert with the most sophisticated anti-missile defenses in the world, were impotent in the face of the Iranian attack.

For all those trying to spin yesterday’s events as an Israeli victory, chew on that fact:

The best missile defense system in the world could not protect the sites they were tasked with protecting from attacks by Iranian missiles.

Who has deterrence supremacy?

It ain’t Israel.

NEW: 🇮🇷🇮🇱 Iran notified the United States 72 hours before the attack, giving them time to prepare a defense.

Reuters reports that Tehran gave neighboring countries and the United States '72 hours notice it would launch the strikes, a move that would have enabled them to largely thwart the attack'.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqchjO_oRJU?si=qVpU418VqvTi_C2f

NwaliE01:


What do you think?
Is that amount decent for a defence system?

I mean when we weigh the potential damages vs the cost.

I understand that Air defense system can be quite expensive, that's why many Countries doesn't have it.

It's unsustainable. Eventually, they will run out of missiles. And you know, the Shaheed drones cos very little. Same with the rockets lunch by Iraq resistance, Hezbollah, Hamas. Those are not design to cause a lot of damage but to deplete AD resources, thereby draining Israel financially.

You cannot win a war that way. That's why the west and Israel doesn't like attrition war. In comparison to the West, weapons manufactured by China, Russia and Iran is at a fraction of the cost. They can sustain it for years.

NwaliE01:


Where did you get this humongous figure from?
I think you need to google how many anti air missles are in one battery?
Abeg, make we beg baba in Aso Rock to buy air defence for us.
I no trust our neighbours again.

Israel spent $1.3b. US, UK, France spent how? We don't know. This was for an attack of 5 hours.

If Iran sustain the attack for 24 hours, that's how they will spend $5b

id4sho:

I disagree with this, hope IRAN got some good air defense system too

It's still significantly bigger than Israel by more than 100%. So they can cover everywhere. So Israel can high some low value target and leave the rest to main stream media propaganda