Onyechi Ikpeazu: 7 things to know about lead counsel who defended Adeleke’s victory

Onyechi Ikpeazu made headlines on Tuesday when his client, the incumbent governor of Osun, Senator Ademola Adeleke was declared as the legitimate winner of the July 16, 2022 governorship election by the Supreme Court.

A three-member panel of the appellate court led by Mohammed Shuaibu had as of last year affirmed Adeleke’s victory, nullifying the judgment of the election petition tribunal for “lacking merit”.

Justice Agim, in the Supreme Court judgment, held that the appellant (Oyetola) failed to prove the allegations of over-voting and other irregularities in the conduct of the election.

1. Born in Onitsha, Anambra on April 15, 1959, Dr Ikpeazu has been in active legal practice till date and has served as Chairman of the Onitsha Branch of the Nigerian Bar Association and NEC (National Executive Council) member of the national body, NBA.

2. The US-trained lawyer was conferred with the rank of Senior Advocate of Nigeria, (SAN) and in 2007.

3. Some of the landmark cases handled by Dr Ikpeazu include MOJEKWU V. MOJEKWU; MOJEKWU V. IWUCHUKWU preserving the inheritance right of a woman; NGIGE V OBI reported in (2006) 14 NWLR (Part 999) 1, a decision that brought Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate, Mr Peter Obi to office as the duly elected Governor of Anambra.

4. It will interest you to note that Dr Ikpeazu is also one of the 12 SANs in Obi’s legal team challenging the victory of Bola Tinubu, the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

5. He is also part of several Senatorial and National Assembly Election Petitions across the country.

6. Besides election cases, Dr Ikpeazu has also provided legal representation in International Arbitrations across several jurisdictions.

7. He is happily married and blessed with children.

I encourage Nigerians to remain calm and steadfast in the journey to reclaiming their mandate of a New Nigeria. I will never give up on this journey until victory is achieved.

I never expected the journey to a New Nigeria to be an easy one. The forces, who had over the years, lived off the old order, are bound to fight back, as is being experienced now.

If they come at us through land, air and sea, we will respond to them through land, air and sea but, we will remain law abiding and will never give up on the nation. We are on the right path and we will remain committed to the course.

I reiterate my commitment to building a Nigeria that will be beneficial to every Nigerian. The struggle to reclaim this mandate is not about me as a person but, about millions of Nigerians who placed their trust in me through their votes.

The millions of Nigerians who voted for me did not just cast their votes but, they invested their hopes in me and they deserve justice. So, we must stay the course.

Beyond regaining our mandate, I am committed to lifting people out of poverty and I remain committed to transforming Nigeria starting from the North to every part of the nation.

There may be more mud slinging from those who are against the emergence of the New Nigeria but, I would never be deterred by the obstacles along the way to victory. I have always lived my life in the most law abiding manner.

Westerhoffe:


Then, ChatGPT was right to have notified of generating incorrect response at times.

If you need a screenshot, I'll get you one.

Westerhoffe:
Answer by ChatGPT:

Recruiting firm's minimum employees.

Question:
A recruiting firm advertised for a job and people from Ward A and Ward B applied. The recruiting firm was tasked to recruit at least 25% of people from Ward A and Ward B. If there are 3600 people from Ward A and 80 people from Ward B, what's the minimum number of people the firm should at least employ?

Answer:
To determine the minimum number of people the firm should at least employ, we need to first calculate the number of people that constitute 25% of both Ward A and Ward B:

For Ward A, 25% of 3600 is (25/100) * 3600 = 900
For Ward B, 25% of 80 is (25/100) * 80 = 20
Therefore, the recruiting firm needs to recruit at least 900 people from Ward A and 20 people from Ward B. To determine the total minimum number of people the firm should employ, we simply add these two numbers:

Minimum number of people = 900 + 20 = 920

Therefore, the minimum number of people the firm should at least employ is 920.

Pan Yoruba Socio-political group, Afenifere, has claimed that the candidate of Labour Party, Peter Obi, won the Presidential election.

Afenifere made the claim in a Commuinique issued after its monthly General Meeting held at the country home of its Leader, Chief Ayo Adebanjo, at Isanya Ogbo, Ogun State.

In the Commuinique made available to journalists in Akure by the Secretary General of Afenifere, Sola Ebiseni, Afenifere also reiterated its position that the Presidential election held on February 25 was characterised by all forms of primitive manipulations and noncompliance with the constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, the Electoral Act 2022 and the guidelines and regulations.

In the commuinique Tuesday, Afenifere said:

“The results of the lawful votes at the Presidential election available to the Afenifere through credible sources confirm that Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, won the said election and we, thus, support his decision challenging the contrary declaration by the INEC. Reassert that for equity, fairness, national cohesion and peaceful corporate existence, the next President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria shall be person of its southern part and specifically the South-East.

"Condemn in the strongest terms, the campaigns of calumny and acts of ethnic violence deployed by some politicians and their hired criminal gangs in several parts of the federation during the gubernatorial election particularly Lagos State where the election was made to appear like an inter-ethnic war between the Yoruba and Igbo which greatly led to voters’ suppression and other forms of deliberate disenfranchisement through brigandage”.

The group expressed belief in the judiciary as an integral part of the democratic process and expect that it proves itself in the election litigations pending before it without fear or favour and in accordance with the judicial oaths of its members, in covenant with the Nigerian people.

Afenifere called on President Muhammadu Buhari to restore the patriotic confidence and hope of the Nigerians in the continued corporate existence of the federation which will guaranty their safety throughout Nigeria.

It also appreciated the renewed interests of the international community in the security and democratic health of Nigeria and urged that as a prominent member of the global community, the affairs of Nigeria should continue to be of concern to the world.

The Labour Party (LP)’s presidential candidate, Peter Obi, has overtaken his All Progressives Congress (APC) rival, Bola Tinubu, in Lagos State with the results of Saturday’s presidential elections declared in 17 out of the 20 local government areas of the state so far.

Although Mr Tinubu, a former governor of the state, has won more local government areas, he is trailing behind Mr Obi by 32,442 votes.

While Mr Tinubu, has triumphed in 10 local government areas, polling a total of 416,436 votes so far, Mr Obi is ahead in only seven local governments, but is leading the tally with 448,878 votes.

PREMIUM TIMES is on ground at the Lagos State Collation Centre for the Presidential Election.

The newspaper had reported how Mr Tinubu was narrowly leading the tally after the results had been declared in 12 local government areas.

But with results declared in more local government areas, Mr Obi caught up with him and subsequently overtook him.

The other two front-runners in the election – Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Rabiu Kwawanso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) – have yet to win any local government area in the state. While Atiku has polled 60,330 across the 17 local government areas where results have been declared so far, Kwankwaso has scored 6,870.

The 10 local government areas where Mr Tinubu has triumphed are Agege, Apapa, Badagry, Epe, Ibeju-Lekki, Ifako-Ijaiye, Ikorodu, Lagos Island, Lagos Mainland, and Surulere.

Mr Obi , on the other hand, has won Ajeromi-Ifelodun, Amuwo-Odofin, Eti-Osa, Ikeja, Kosofe, Oshodi-Isolo, and Somolu.

The three remaining local government areas where results are being expected are Mushin, Ojo, and Alimosho.

Polls in Nigeria have placed outsider candidate Peter Obi in the lead before presidential elections next weekend, heralding potentially sweeping change in Africa’s most populous nation.

A win for Obi, a 61-year-old businessman turned politician, would overturn politics in Nigeria, ending decades of dominance by the two main establishment parties.

Analysts and commentators describe the election as a key “inflection point” for the country 24 years after the end of military rule. The vast country, which has Africa’s biggest economy, is seen as a bellwether for democracy on the continent but is suffering multiple economic, political and social crises.

“All elections are important, but there really is a lot riding on this one. It is really important that this election is credible, is free and perceived as fair,” said Leena Koni Hoffmann-Atar, an expert at London’s Chatham House foreign affairs thinktank.

Though some pollsters have gushed that Obi “has captivated the country”, others are cautious about the his chances of securing power.

Recent surveys have suggested Obi has between a 10% and 40% lead over his rivals, but many experts warn this could fast disappear if turnout is low, meaning a probable victory for the ruling party candidate, 70-year-old veteran powerbroker Bola Tinubu, whose slogan is: “It’s my turn.” More than 90 million Nigerians are eligible to vote, but less than half may actually cast a ballot.

Obi has sought to offset the advantage enjoyed by the vast political machines of the ruling All Progressives Congress and its main opposition, the People’s Democratic party (PDP), through the use of social media and efforts to reach out to all communities rather than mobilise an existing loyal base.

This has led to a surge of support among young urban voters. “This is a very young electorate ... truly a Nigerian democratic generation – and the last eight years [of Muhammadu Buhari’s rule] have been quite brutal for them,” said Hoffmann-Atar.

A former state governor, Obi ran as the vice-presidential candidate for the PDP in 2019 but switched to the tiny Labour party last year, launching a grassroots campaign touting his experience as an administrator and outsider status that swiftly gained momentum.

Obi, a Catholic, has projected an image of a competent reformer who will tackle the country’s huge problems without fear or favour. He has been helped by the evident age of other candidates and corruption allegations against several rivals. High-profile efforts to bridge Nigeria’s deep ethnic and religious divides have also won support among some voters.

“Obi is viewed as a mould-breaking politician, talking about reform and doing things differently ... But it remains to be seen if he could follow through on that if he became president,” said Matthew Page, a Nigeria expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the Washington-based thinktank.

Few doubt the scale of the challenges facing the eventual victor. Inflation is running at record levels, Nigeria’s currency has plummeted in value and there have been riots in recent days after the central bank botched an attempt to introduce new banknotes.

Thousand died in attacks by bandits, criminals and extremists across the country in 2022. A wave of kidnapping for ransom has reached into previously safe towns and cities, while the police and armed forces are widely viewed as inefficient, corrupt and brutal.

Obi’s campaign pledge to apologise to victims of police brutality – a key mobilising cause for young people in recent years – has resonated widely with the youthful demographic.Though jihadists associated with the Boko Haram organisation and the Islamic State’s regional branch are embroiled in a bitter internal conflict, they could still attempt to disrupt the election or its aftermath, said Vincent Foucher, an expert in extremism in west Africa with

said Vincent Foucher, an expert in extremism in West Africa with the French National Centre for Scientific Research.

One possibility is that Obi will take enough votes to prevent his rivals winning in the first round, which requires a simple majority of all votes and 25% of votes in at least two-thirds of the country’s 36 states. A second-round run-off would be a first in Nigerian electoral history and might risk further instability.

“Nigeria is an incredibly resilient country, but the question is: when do these multiplying crises just get too much,” said Page. Nigerians are choosing the person who may have one of the last opportunities to change the trajectory of the country.”

seunmsg:
Peter Obi is a well packaged fraud. He offered nothing different in Anambra and was part of the PDP years of rot and corruption. He will come a distant third next week and his largely Igbo supporters will go back to Biafra agitation.

London-based newspaper The Economist says Peter Obi, presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), is the best choice for Nigeria.

The Economist described Obi as a sprightly 61-year old while Bola Tinubu, presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), was described as “an old-school politician who, at 70 years old, is unlikely to shake things up”.

It also said Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is no better than Tinubu, adding that the former vice-president has grandiose ideas for industrialisation and one million new police officers but no plan for how to pay for them.

In the article titled ‘Nigeria desperately needs a new kind of leadership’, The Economist said:

“Obi, a sprightly 61-year-old former state governor who is leading in the polls, offers an alternative.

“Most striking, he has urged people not to vote along ethnic or religious lines but to favour competence.

“Should they do so, it would mark a radical shift in Nigerian politics. He has also warned his supporters they should expect no money in return for their votes.

“Obi talks of supporting business, freer trade, and getting a grip on Nigeria’s mounting debts. He diagnoses the country’s failings more precisely than his rivals, though he is not much better at explaining how he would fix them. His promises to scrap the staggeringly wasteful petrol subsidy and rationalise the central bank’s many exchange rates are echoed by his opponents.

“Obi is not entirely a new broom. He was Abubakar’s vice-presidential running-mate in 2019 before switching parties. He has faced questions over undeclared offshore assets. (He says he earned the money in question before he took office as governor.) Even if he wins, his Labour Party is very unlikely to gain a majority in the national assembly, so governing will be hard.

“But he is the only candidate to offer Nigerians much hope of change. In a country that has been badly and repeatedly failed by its leaders, he is easily the best choice.”

The Economist said Nigeria has been cursed with bad rulers but Obi, a third-party presidential candidate, offers a measure of hope.

“Africa’s most populous country is in desperate need of it (hope). The economy, the continent’s biggest, bursts with youthful potential — half the country is 18 years old or younger,” the newspaper said.

“A flourishing Nigeria would boost the whole of Africa. Instead, it is dragging it down.

“Nigerians are poorer now than they were in 2015, when the outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari, took over.

“At least 60m (and rising) survive on less than the equivalent of $2.15 per day. Buhari’s protectionist policies have made things worse.

“In addition, the country is beset by violence.”

As the convoy of S.U.V.s pulled up to the biggest electronics market in Lagos, Nigeria’s economic capital, word quickly spread that inside one vehicle with tinted windows was Peter Obi, one of the front-runners in the upcoming presidential election, on a surprise campaign stop. Within minutes, a large crowd of mostly young men had gathered.

“If I told them I was coming, they’d have shut down the market — it would have been ten times this,” Mr. Obi said, smiling, looking out at his roaring fans from under a cap that read: “Make Nigeria Great.” Then he stepped out in front of the sea of smartphones held aloft to record the occasion.

“A new Nigeria is possible,” he told the crowd in his distinctive high voice. “For the first time, government is going to care about you.”

For eight years, the citizens of Africa’s most populous nation — 70 percent of them under the age of 30 — have been governed by Muhammadu Buhari, who previously ruled the country as a military dictator, in the 1980s, long before most of them were even born.

In a country where vote-buying and violence often distort elections, the presidential vote scheduled for Feb. 25 presents a rare chance for millions of young Nigerians, many of them new voters, to make their elders listen.

According to polls, many of these new voters support Mr. Obi, a former state governor challenging the traditional two-party hegemony by running with the lesser-known Labour Party. He is seen as the candidate of the youth, though far from young at 61; his main rivals are in their 70s. Mr. Buhari, who is 80, served the maximum of two terms.

“A one-eyed man, in the land of the blind, is king,” said Mr. Obi’s running mate, Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed, in an interview.

Nigeria, and particularly its young people, have had an extremely tough few years. Large groups of schoolchildren have been kidnapped, by extremists or ransom seekers. Youth unemployment nearly tripled during the Buhari years. Demonstrators in peaceful protests against police brutality were themselves shot dead by security forces in 2020 as they sang and waved the flag by a tollgate in Lekki, an upmarket Lagos suburb.

Many young people are channeling their anger at the government’s repressive response to that movement — as well as the failure to bring those responsible to justice, a seven month Twitter ban, and persistent police brutality — into this election.

“What happened in Lekki is a clear indication that this government don’t care about the youth,” said Amanda Okafor, 28, who said she saw many fellow protesters shot dead in Lekki. Ms. Okafor was eligible to vote in the past two elections, but never did. Now she goes everywhere with her voter’s card, determined to cast her first-ever vote.

“We’re tired of these same old people coming in to tell us that they’re going to change stuff for us and they’re not doing anything,” she said.

For many young Nigerians, these “same old people” include the presidential candidate of the party in power, Bola Tinubu, a former Lagos governor with a strong southwestern base, and the slogan, “It’s my turn.” He sometimes slurs words and appears confused, alarming some voters.

The old guard also includes the candidate of the opposition People’s Democratic Party, Atiku Abubakar — a former vice president running for president for the sixth time. He will likely garner much support in Nigeria’s northern states.

In an interview, Mr. Obi said that young people invest so much hope in him because the leaders they had known never cared for them or Nigeria. He said it was an “existential election” for the country.

“We’re not going to solve the problem of Nigeria overnight, because it’s huge,” he said.

His rivals, Mr. Abubakar and Mr. Tinubu, did not respond to requests for interviews.

Minutes after he arrived in Alaba electronics market, Mr. Obi’s unexpected visit began to go viral. As the convoy left for yet another rally, social media-savvy Obi supporters — nicknamed Obidients — mobbed the vehicles, unsure which one their hero was in. Eventually, he popped out of a sunroof, blowing kisses to the crowd.

“No shishi!” yelled the supporters running alongside his car — a slogan that, roughly, means “My vote is not for sale.”

Back in Mr. Obi’s convoy, his Labour Party colleagues — traveling in the luxury van behind his car — strategized about when he should stay hidden (in the neighborhood of his opponent, Mr. Tinubu) and when he should pop out of the sunroof and wave (in areas dominated by people from the southeast, Mr. Obi’s home region). Calls from the rally they were headed toward reported members being attacked by thugs.

“They should fight back,” one of them ordered.

The convoy drew up at the rally, where the crowds sang along with the musical duo P-Square, who like many Nigerian musical stars, are proud Obidients. On the sidelines, dozens of young people insisted they would turn out to vote, violence or not.

The stakes were too high for them not to, they said.

The supporters of the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi, will on Saturday, February 18, 2023, embark on a 100-million-man march across the 774 local government areas in the 36 states of the federation, including the Federal Capital Territory and major cities around the world.

This was made known in a statement issued on Friday, February 17, 2023, by the joint committee for the event made up of all Obi/Datti support groups worldwide and signed by the lead of Obidient Global March, Justin Kingland, and the founder of the 100-million-man march, Prof. Chris Nwaokobia, Jnr.

The groups said the “Obidient” 100-million-man global march was the “final push” to “put boots on the ground to actualise a new Nigeria built on equity, justice, and service.”

The statement partly read, “Today, we make a new call on all Obidients to march in this grand rally on Saturday, February 18, 2023.

“The Obidients 100-million global march is a statement of our renewed hope and undying love for Nigeria.

“It is a platform for an expression of our determined hope to save Nigeria from the hands of political marauders whose time has come to an end. It is the stamp of our feet on the grounds of a new nation built on equity, justice, and service.”

The statement called on “all Obidients to come out en masse and lend their voices to this song of our future and freedom.”

It added that information on locations and routes had been made available on Obidients platforms and on social media.

“We have also made available phone numbers for efficient communication and guidance. For those in Abuja City centre, the march will begin from the Unity Fountain and close at the City Gate.

“We call on all our brothers and sisters worldwide to make themselves available at the designated locations in their countries and states as ‘Yuseful Obidients’. We are determined to see a New Nigeria rise from the ashes. May God help us,” it concluded.

Nigerian presidential hopeful Peter Obi emerged as the preferred choice to become the country’s next head of state in two opinion polls, the third survey in the past week to show the outsider candidate is the frontrunner.

Two organizations based in the West African country – ANAP Foundation and Kwakol Research – published polling in which respondents identified the former governor of Anambra state as their favorite to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari after elections scheduled for Feb. 25.

ShowYourCertificate:
Obi most popular choice among Nigerians — Kwakol poll



For more details: https://businessday.ng/politics/article/obi-most-popular-choice-among-nigerians-kwakol-poll/

Peter Gregory Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, is the most popular candidate among the major contenders seeking to become the nation’s next president, a new poll conducted by the Kwakol Research Institute has revealed.

The poll, which took a different approach to collecting valuable data and providing reasonable conclusions, arrived at the conclusion that the Labour Party presidential candidate was the ideal choice for more than 50 percent of respondents, including women, the unemployed, civil servants, private sector participants, and students, especially those in tertiary institutions.

Unlike most polls, Kwakol gathered most of its responses from rural dwellers. “It is important to note that, unlike the majority of the polls in Nigeria, we polled more registered voters in rural Nigeria than registered voters in semi-urban Nigeria and urban Nigeria, respectively,” it stated.

The research agency also used several parameters to arrive at its conclusion—for example, the issue of income classification, educational background, work status, and sex were factors used in arriving at its conclusion.

In summation, 52.80 percent of respondents said that they would vote for the Labour Party, 18.9 percent said they would vote for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), 15.6 percent said they would vote for the All Progressives Congress, and 10.4 percent said that they would vote for the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).

Chief Frank Nweke Jr., the governorship candidate of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) in Enugu, has urged the electorates to vote for Mr Peter Obi, the Labour Party presidential candidate, on Feb. 25 and cast other votes for APGA candidates.

Nweke made the call while addressing the 48th Annual Synod of the Methodist Church of Nigeria in Enugu on Friday.

According to Nweke, “of all the three major presidential candidates, Mr Peter Obi is the best because he has character, capacity and integrity”, but in Enugu, vote for APGA candidates for the same reasons.

The governorship candidate said that the church had a major role to play in the enthronement of good leadership and pledged to partner with it in improving education and reinventing the society if elected in March 11.

He promised to hand schools back to missions because schools were better managed by churches, especially primary schools, the foundation of education.

On acute water scarcity in the state, the governorship candidate said he would restore water supply, ensure proper waste disposal and address multiple taxes within 12 months of his administration.

He appealed to the church to vote for APGA in the elections in the state for better living of the people and promised that he would not disappoint residents.

Responding, the Methodist Archbishop of Enugu, Most Rev. Christopher Edeh, thanked Nweke for identifying with the church and prayed God to help him achieve his political ambition.

The bishop said that the church would participate actively in the enthronement of good leaders in the country by coming out en masse to vote.

■ Peter Obi scored 66% among those who’ve decided how to vote
■ The two main party candidates still lag in Premise Data poll

Nigerian businessman and ex-governor Peter Obi remains the top choice to become the nation’s next president, according to a new poll.

Two-thirds of respondents said they intend to vote for Obi, a third-party candidate, in elections scheduled for later this month. The results of the survey conducted for Bloomberg News by Premise Data Corp. were published on Friday – 15 days before the vote to choose President Muhammadu Buhari’s successor.

In an office in an upscale part of Lagos, a group of young economists and analysts fine-tune a data set they say will produce the most comprehensive publicly available election polling in Nigeria’s history, ahead of the country’s presidential vote this month.

The mainly western-educated team at data company Stears aims to bring evidence-based insights into one of the world’s most complex electoral races — in a country where official data is so unreliable that no one even knows the exact size of the population.

“Over the last couple of election cycles, data has not always been a big part of the election conversation,” said Preston Ideh, Stears’ chief executive who co-founded the company in 2018 to address a dearth of reliable information in Africa’s largest economy.

Election polling has been done before in Nigeria, but usually in the form of surveys commissioned by political parties and other organisations for internal use. In this election cycle, however, start-ups such as Stears and SBM Intelligence, another Lagos-based data specialist, are aiming to fill a gap in the market for high-quality, publicly available information.

Afolabi Adekaiyaoja, an analyst at the Centre for Democracy and Development think-tank, views the introduction of polling as a sign of “how robust Nigeria’s electoral space is becoming”.

Surveys covering big issues, such as the proposed removal of fuel subsidies, would also help Nigeria’s leaders in decision-making, he said. “It would be good to have polling on any of the difficult decisions the next administration may have to take. Not just for the government, but public policy analysts, to see how Nigerians are thinking.”

Nigerians go to the polls on February 25 to choose a replacement for Muhammadu Buhari, who is stepping down after two terms, and members of both houses of parliament. On March 11 they are scheduled to elect governors and members of state legislatures.

The presidential race is expected to be tight. Three main candidates are in the running: Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress, main opposition candidate Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic party and the Labour party’s Peter Obi.

SBM’s polling is focused on helping civil society organisations identify the issues that voters say are most important to them. Ikemesit Effiong, its head of research, said: “We want to understand how Nigerians perceive the issues and how those issues are likely to feed into the wider conduct of the election, as well as the outcome and reaction to the outcome.”

Effiong said SBM’s survey showed that voters were most concerned about insecurity, the economy, corruption and the proposed fuel subsidy removal.

Stears launched Nigeria’s first real-time election monitor ahead of the 2019 poll. Some 2mn users logged on to follow results as they came in. Its 2023 database is more comprehensive, with biographical information on almost 15,000 candidates in some 1,500 contests, covering state as well as national races.

Polling data is limited to the presidential race and a few governorship elections partly because of cost and logistics constraints. Ideh estimates that Stears has spent up to N30mn ($66,000) canvassing 6,000 randomly selected respondents for this year’s elections — almost double the number surveyed in other available polls.

The company raised $3.3mn in seed funding last year from investors, including MaC Venture Capital, US tennis star Serena Williams’ venture capital fund Serena Ventures and eBay founder Pierre Omidyar’s Luminate Group.

Among the logistical issues are Nigeria’s complex voting system, under which voters can only cast their ballot at the polling unit where they are registered, and an electorate that is deeply divided along ethnic and religious lines, which complicates efforts to assemble a representative sample of voters. Previous Nigerian elections have also been marred by unrest and safety concerns are known to depress voter turnout.

“The voting value chain in Nigeria is fraught with risk,” said Michael Famoroti, who’s leading the project at Stears.

With the industry in its infancy, analysis of polling data is tricky. The lack of historical information hinders efforts to draw inferences about voting behaviour. “It’s a very big problem,” said Stears co-founder Abdul Abdulrahim. “More complex models that try to understand people’s behaviour don’t just need today’s picture, they need yesterday’s picture.”

In an effort to obtain a representative sample, Stears randomly selected just over half of the 6,220 respondents in its 2023 survey from each of Nigeria’s 36 states and the capital Abuja, with the numbers based on the states’ share of registered voters.

The others were drawn from Lagos, Kano and Rivers, which are among states with the highest number of voters, and three states in the North Central region that have a mix of religions and ethnicities. Since 1979, North Central has backed the eventual winner in every presidential contest.

The company has built voter profiles for the main candidates based on their supporters’ age, gender, education level and perception of election day safety and therefore the likelihood they will venture out to vote. Turnout in recent elections has been low at about 35 per cent.

“Elections are a universe of possibilities based on variations with turnout, last-minute surprises and much more. Without understanding that, you don’t have a business in this business,” said political analyst Joachim MacEbong.

The polling industry has taken a hit to its reputation after failing to predict the election of Donald Trump as US president in 2016 or the UK’s Brexit vote in the same year and for overstating the “red wave” of support for the Republicans in last November’s US midterm elections.

Stears acknowledged these issues, but said its goal was to foster an environment where polling became more accurate.

The CDD’s Adekaiyaoja warned that providing the right context and nuance around polling data was crucial to prevent it from being weaponised.

“Polls can be used as a means of active disinformation by groups trying to whip up sentiments or stir people into violence,” he said. “It’s a very sensitive landscape, where the tiniest margins might determine who becomes president.”