₦airaland Forum

mercylicious:
U never can tell. Stock MKT has no formula.
Before I entered stock market (pre - melt down) , I read in one of the stock newspapers (we really had newspapers like that ) that it is better to sell a day or 2 b4 close of register as price are bound to reverse after mark down. The reason being that after mark down, there will be too Much supply and price will go down.

This is not always d case these days. There are some stocks that the price will not reverse after mark down. I think the best way to know this stocks is to consider 2years or more trend. There are some stocks DT will continue to defy all permutation and logic. These are ones controlled by some big boys and we know them. They determine when the price should fall and when it shld go high.

I trade also opened our eyes. The market makers most times, have d final say on the price a stock should trade. You then have to find a way to align with them if they are very active in the stocks you have interest on.

ifeykay:
Any single trade of 50,000 units and above (for stocks priced N99 or less) results in a price change. If this happens to be the last trade price for that day it then becomes the closing price for that stock.

However, a stock priced more than N100 requires only 10,000 units of single trade to result into price change.

Hope this helps.

For the Traders in the house:

5 Trading Proverbs You Can Use

Like the people who drive it, markets can sometimes appear to act irrationally. As the economist John Maynard Keynes said, "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

Many trading advice expressions have been coined to describe the dynamics of stock prices to remind us how to avoid traps and seize opportunities. Below, we've shared some of the most common maxims traders have used for decades to reflect important insights into speculation of market movement.

"The Trend is Your Friend"

Some traders believe they need to be different in order to be smart or make money. The challenge is that the trend is reality. It represents the collective actions of all market participants.

When the broad market is heading higher or moving lower, so are most of the stocks in it. This creates momentum. Rather than bucking the trend, acknowledge the direction of the overall market trend and plan your trades accordingly.

"Don't Try to Catch a Falling Knife"

This saying applies to buying a stock falling sharply. Just as it is dangerous to try and catch a knife falling to the floor, it is risky to buy a stock selling-off. If your analysis indicates that now is a good time to buy it, you should. But, don't buy just because it is "on sale". We've all seen that item in the store that is marked down 10% and three weeks later is marked down 25% or more. Purchasing these "sale" items early on can put a dent in your trading account.

"Buy on the Rumor and Sell on the News"

This saying reminds us that rumor can drive a rally or a sell-off in a stock. People are speculating on the impact of what they have heard and this is getting baked into the stock's price. If the rumors are proven to be true, then much of the impact may already be reflected in the price. If the rumors aren't true, this can also impact the stock because those rumors were likely priced into the stock. In short, remember that stocks often move on speculation and then adjust when the news is official.

"Be Fearful when Others are Greedy and Greedy only When Others are Fearful"

There are long term uptrends and downtrends, but at a certain point the market pendulum will change direction. Timing is difficult, but it is worth paying attention to those times when a company can seemingly do no wrong or when a company can do nothing right. During these times, think like a contrarian and don't become complacent.

This expression is counter to the idea that 'the trend is your friend', but it is really more of a reminder that every trend will ultimately end and it often seems to happen just when it feels like it will go on forever.

"Bull Markets Climb a Wall of Worry"

This expression highlights how markets often trend in spite of how people are feeling. What keeps a market moving higher is that there are more buyers entering the market. The opposite is true when a market keeps moving lower. If you're waiting for everyone to agree on the market, you could be waiting for a long time. Markets can go up when people are still queasy and can fall apart during seemingly good times.

Conclusion

It is no accident that these sayings have endured. They capture something about how people relate to markets and how markets affect people. These sayings would be long forgotten if they did not speak to deep market truths. Keep them in mind.


Source: Charles Schwab

Manonamission:
I totally agree with you even though I think he must exist in a world of his own.

@Intendy; it's no longer 22,000 but now 15,000 for ASI projection. The prophet has spoken o.

Now one prophet says it's Armageddon for the NSE this year, the other says we should come back MAY and enjoy the best of NSE for the year. The later says, it wasn't revealed by flesh and blood.

Manonamission:
I still remember the awards, speeches, ovations Wale received when the COP deal was finally approved. The drama leading to the approval sef no get part 2. COP cashed out real cool leaving Oando with an empty can (after the downward revision of reserves.....wetin remain?). The cost of not doing thorough DD is HIGH. Lessons for us all to learn. When I saw Oando at N2.97, it triggered emotions of pity on the stock itself.

PETERiCHY:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-23/saudi-arabia-to-u-s-oilmen-cut-costs-or-get-out-of-business

The world’s most powerful oilman brought a harsh message to Houston for executives hoping for a rescue from low prices: high-cost producers -- many of them sitting in the room -- need to either “lower costs, borrow cash or liquidate."

"It sounds harsh, and unfortunately it is, but it is the most efficient way to rebalance markets,"

The freeze agreement isn’t "cutting production. That is not going to happen," Naimi said.

“It’s going to be really, really ugly to get through this valley,”

DeRuggedProf:
Let him come and buy OANDO and FBNH. He is lucky to operate in a SANE country where humans value their family names....

rottennaija:
This is good. And boko haram even have solar panel? Yet Western education is bad, but their product is good

kaycodes:
Sorry to say, the hard times have not started. If oil price does not improve drastically before the 3rd quarter of the year, expect more hardship. Either way we have to brace up for tougher economic policies. And even with the right things put in place in Nigeria it will still take some time for things to get better. So until we successfully diversify the economy this dollar and naira game will continue. Then each time the dust settles we will have a new black market steady rate.

Example, earlier speculations drive the dollar to 250, it then settled to 230...

Now it went as high as 375, and is now settling to 2xx, maybe we might see a final steady price of 250. Then after a while demand will spike again and so on and so forth. The CBN cannot defend the naira for ever.

That's my lay man's economics

stagger:
No shakes. Our problem in this part of the world is we do not read. We don't look at other examples of currencies that have undergone crisis to know what happened. The Swiss National Bank swore to defend the minimum Euro to Swiss Franc exchange rate of 1.2000 which they fixed in September 2011 with all their resources. The fundamentals of the currency kept pushing against that peg until January last year when the SNB threw in the towel.

The only explanation for the gain in the Naira is that someone somewhere must have pumped billions of dollars into circulation. Don't forget that a certain Dr Aluko had on Channels TV, accused Ifeanyi Ubah of giving Gov Fayose 2 million dollars for electioneering, which Dr Ubah denied. The man has access to a foreign exchange cache. Many politicians have millions of dollars stored in their homes. You need to go to Transcorp Casino in Abuja to see how foreign currency changes hands in the gambling tables.

All that is needed is for these guys to come together to dump dollars in the market. Many of these guys got the dollars not by earning it but by stealing public funds. Dr Ubah by the international nature of his business has legal access to dollars. Dump all these dollars through a few BDCs and other means into the market and the supply will be so much that the value will drop.

However, has that changed the underlying fundamentals? It has not. School fees season will soon come. So will travel season for summer and all what not. You will see these same billionaires buying back the dollar at present rates and once they have succeeded in mopping it all up, the scarcity will return and a new speculative run on the Naira will start.

Once enough pressure has been exerted to the level where the CBN will keep depleting the foreign reserves, something will have to give. Nigeria is on the receiving end. Why is Buhari going to China to negotiate loans? This is because the World Bank and IMF will not give him a dime without devaluing the currency. It has always been the game plan to keep us subservient to these institutions and by continuously being an import-dependent nation filled with looters of the treasury, we will not come out of this mess.

The only way to shore up the value of the Naira is to shun these foreign goods and buy made-in-Nigeria products, and also to start producing for export. At best, it will take at least 4 years to start seeing the effects. These things do not occur overnight.

obailala:
Let me tell you a short story of what happened when the oil prices began to crash, just between October 2014 and May 2015 when GEJ handed over:

(1) The Naira fell from N166/167 to N220 to $1, meanwhile oil still sold at about $65/barrel as at May 2015.
http://abokifx.com/previous-rates-2/

(2) The nation's foreign reserves dropped from ~$38.5bn to $28.7billion, that's a drop of about $10billion in 7 months, with oil still selling at about $65/barrel as at May 2015.
http://www.cenbank.org/intops/Reserve.asp

(3) Nigeria's GDP growth rate which was maintained at an average of 6-7% suddenly dropped to its lowest since 1999 of 2.3%.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/gdp-growth-annual

(4) Due to a severe cash crunch occasioned by fall in oil prices, the Nigerian government had to borrow about $2.4billion dollars early in 2015 to pay salaries. The FG could not also pay accumulated arrears of fuel subsidy since August 2014 to petroleum importers (this led to the fuel scarcity in May 2015 just before the handover and Lai Mohammed also blamed this owed fuel subsidy as the reason behind the fuel scarcity late last year)
http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/05/nigeria-borrows-to-pay-salaries-with-cash-crunch-worsening/
http://www.channelstv.com/2015/12/21/lai-mohammed-blames-fuel-crisis-on-past-administration/

Note that all of the above happened at a time when oil still sold above $65/barrel; today oil sells for about $30/barrel

Now I do not want to imagine the kind of economic humanitarian crisis that would have enveloped Nigeria had GEJ continued in his usual manner of dipping his hands into the forex reserves; only God saved us as a nation else we would have been standing on long queues by now to receive one cup of rice daily from W.H.O or UN outlets.


Did I just hear you say continuity of those four (4) negative events I just pointed out above?
Are you aware that the FG under Buhari has not borrowed to pay salaries? It even bailed out the states
Are you aware the FG has paid off subsidy arrears owed to oil importers even since the days of GEJ?
Are you aware the FG/CBN has been able to maintain virtually the same forex reserve amount that it inherited till date?... Unlike GEJ that crashed it by $10billion in 7 months of oil price crash?
And now all these have been done when oil sells for less than half of what it was when GEJ was handing over and you think the present government is more useless?? I challenge you to tell me that these figures and indices I have written here are wrong, kindly explain to us your 'empirical' evidence.

Manonamission:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-16/saudi-arabia-and-russia-agree-oil-output-freeze-in-qatar-talks

What do all ya think?

ikbnice:
security-wise, no phone beats blackberry.

HtwoOw:
before you dole out those likes , be aware that Nigerians were already very fed up of the PDP and it's misrule because APC made it a hobby to enlighten Nigerians about the impunity


So even if PDP shared everything in the treasury, their chance of winning was slim from the onset

greatiyk4u:
Are these thieves not the same ones that are going to rule us in Biafra if actualized?...........it is better to fail in originality than to succeed in imitation.

Burger01:
Yes oh my brother. I'm talking about the most corrupt president Nigeria ever had.

I shuddered at what would've been our country's fate if this corrupt yam-eating drunkard had gotten a second term!.... financial and economic catastrophe !

We thank God the 'I had no shoes' scammer was rejected. Never again shall Nigeria be cursed with a president as clueless and as unabashedly corrupt as Jonathan... Never again!

icewinz:
The kinna money ah d hear on tv say dem steal outaf naija treasury,and theone ah d carry see soft copy for nl eh? D make me believe say naija youths and the future generation has nothing reserved for,and future generation is not in 'any' of our leaders mind,-qoute me anywhere.

Super1Star:
Where in the whole of that transcript of the interview did PMB called Nigerians criminals?

Ben Bruce indeed has the face Obama and the brain of Obanikoro.

luvinhubby:
Ball joints & NOT tie-rods are responsible for this.

When tie rods pull, steering ceases to function.


Moreover, failed ball joints is NOT a function of bad auto engineering by Honda, but a result of a mass cloned suspension parts, ball joints & C.V Joints in particular, which flooded the Honda market in Nigeria.

SLIDEwaxie:
Without respect to Jonathan, he wasn't the one who started the rot in Nigeria... He only didn't care to make any effort in reforming it.

feelamong:
how many Foreign Investors do we start have remaining in our market? dem never waka go finish?

BTW still don't understand how stating the obvious that is well known to all means negative press

Raiders:
I still consider it poor because most Nigerians survived on less than 2 dollars a day. Your calculation of 4400 dollars per capita is not really correct because you didn't account for the huge income inequality that occurs in Nigeria economy. Unlike China and US, we don't even have a huge middle class population. Its either you are rich or poor in Nigeria. I agree with your point that reaching a GDP of 1 trillion dollars will require Nigeria to have good leadership. However Nigeria is still classified as a poor country by UN, IMF and other international bodies.

LRNZH:
As far as I'm concerned, we celebrate mediocrity and failure in Nigeria.

OBJ should not be getting airtime in this country. If not for 3rd term ambition, Nigeria would have been way ahead of where we are today.

If not for OBJ's selfishness,
There wouldn't have been the massive electoral rigging of 2007.
There wouldn't have been a sick Yaradua administration.
There wouldnt have been a buffon president in Goodluck Jonathan.
There wouldn't have been the need to bring in Buhari based on his anti-corruption credentials only as a means of last resort.

OBJ is the architect of modern Nigeria. Modern Nigeria is currently a failure and a shame.
That's the truth right there.