odimbannamdi:


This man, i admire the very sound arguments with which you are canvassing for a natural devaluation of the naira. Honestly, i am beginning to see things from your perspective and realizing that there is a significant probability that devaluation could yield the much needed industrialization in Nigeria.

But this probability will not be 100% for reasons that are not far-fetched.

Nigerians are a resilient and highly-adaptive people. Even if dollar hits 1000naira, Nigerians will adapt and the whole purpose of devaluation could be defeated, increasing the suffering of the common man.

Also, as you said in some of your previous posts, one of the benefits devaluation could bring is increased FDI, but lets not forget that it doesnt work in isolation. There are other dynamics/factors that have to be at play at favourable levels to ensure this. Some of these factors are Security and Government policies. As long as foreign investors perceive Nigeria to be highly volatile where anything goes, they will always think twice before coming to invest, despite our devalued currency. So this should be addressed squarely by our leaders.

Finally, the element of greed amongst us cannot go unmentioned. This rice example you are citing, when the border was closed and foreign rice became scarce and expensive, prices of local rice also increased and i kept wondering whether the production costs for local rice was increased. My point is, the devaluation may also cause artificial inflation as well.

What are your thoughts?

Meanwhile, how is your tomato business?...

Nigerians are adaptive because the devaluation have been coming in small small phases,which gives them the ability to adapt.
How does one adapt to an outright,mean 40% devaluation?
Remember in 2016 when rice hit 33k,people started switching to cassava,stone filled abakiliki rice and so on.
Even sef devaluation will stop smugglers from their activities because their landing price will be so high that it will crush their profits and the price their market is willing to pay for their smuggled product.
In same 2016 when there was tomato sickness and scarcity that drove prices of tomato up by 150%,we saw how people switched to banga stew
You can only adapt if only the degree of damage is adaptable.there are situations that will make you give up and find a cheaper,local alternative.

Money can make investors overlook everything,even kidnapping and racism.
There are still oyibo and Lebanese littered all over Niger delta as we speak.why?Money.
If a foreign investor knows that his dollars can give him almost twice the naira the same amount use to give him,he wouldn't care about security because he knows he can pay for his own security in Nigeria since he now has almost 2 times his investment power.

Also,about people hiking prices of local produce is true,but it is temporary.
Why?
A lot of people will now flock into the same rice business as they will now see it as lucrative and the fight for market share will bring price down naturally.

2016 is there for everyone to see.
Export started rising because Nigeria produce became so cheap.
I went to Bangui,C.A.R(Cental Africa Republic) during those times and I saw Nigeria produced Malta Guinness being hawked on trays,to tell you that a weak naira will turn all out neighbours to dumping ground for Nigeria.
That incident alone in 2016 almost froze the economy of many of our neighbours.

As for my tomato business,it is growing...I am now worth a whooping sum of 83,000 naira plus assets worth 12,000.
I am on the verge of making my first 100k

CsRockefeller:
Talk is cheap. Nigeria is the poverty capital of the world and many more negative stats.

I don't want to say much, those who can save should save.

Poverty capital no mean say you no go save.
Everyone cannot save 10k a month.Even if na 2k,it is something.

IamR:

Never, even with sedan!

Never?
I guess you don't drive German.
If you were,you would have known how easy it is to hit 220kph.
We are even planning to go faster sef,na money for better machine never dey

IamR:

Why?
I am more comfortable with SUV even though I have sedan too.

Maybe you don't drive fast.
If you were a speed demon,I guess you will know why we stick to sedans
You can't be going 220kph in a truck and not feel like you might somersault anytime na.

rationalmind:


Savings is always very difficult. I want to drive an Audi B9 but I can't do that for now because I have to save and invest.

Since when you enter german?
I think say na you be dey yarn and hype about Tacoma that time

rationalmind:


This model of tradesmen is understandable. My grouse is with those who give the " I can't save because my salary/income is not enough" excuse. They are mostly the ones doing online almajiri all over nairaland and twitter.

A distant friend once told me her friends wedding was fast approaching and she needs me to borrow her money for asoebi and to sew it. When I asked why she can't take from her savings, her reply was that the money she earns where she works can barely cater for her basic needs and she lives from hand to mouth.

My advice to her was this, wear whatever you have to the wedding. If that won't fly, you can decide not to attend. Heaven will not fall.

That obviously was not the response she wanted so the discussion ended. Few months later, I went through her status and realised she ended up buying the cloth and attended the wedding. My guess is, she got someone else to borrow her the money.

When she collects her salary, returns the money and whatever is left cannot sustain her for the month, she starts telling whoever cares to listen that her salary is not enough.

Yes.
Nigeria problem is people living above their means.
People here Want to always represent and give the larger than life aura whereas their pockets are empty.
It happens quite a lot.
Nigeria and its people need iron hands.

rationalmind:


The only reality I can see is, whoever wants to save will save.

Like many others have mentioned, the worker in the example you gave will still survive on a monthly wage of 25k.

I overheard "my house" security( a boy of 23 years) tell someone he wants to open another bank account because the one he has is not a regular account and it just hit a threshold that prevents him from depositing any further money. I don't know how much he has in the said account but I know a similar account with Diamond bank back in the days had a maximum of N500,000

His salary? N15,000 naira monthly.

This is true.
There is no excuse for not saving.
I can only support a tradesman who have no savings because I know from experience that every penny made by him or her is reinvested in that business until it hits satiety before they start to diversify by most times developing property.
That is why it is easy to see a man or woman with capital base not exceeding 20M naira in his or her business but has properties worth 80M.
These people can't save liquid cash because there is always one sweet trade around the corner demanding for that capital before it even builds up

odimbannamdi:
Dollar hoarders and speculators, make una sell una dollars now ooo...i just did an online transaction and Gtbank charged me 391.2naira/dollar

How much transaction?

ojesymsym:
Fellow investors, I just played around with some calculations and I was shocked by the simplicity and result.

Assuming I am a civil servant and decide to commit to save 10k (ten thousand naira only) every month, at the end of the year I will have 120k (one twenty thousand naira) only. Assuming I decide to invest that money on a 10% investment per annum without stopping the 10k per month savings, that at the 35th year, around the time I am retiring I will be worth around 30 million?

With that kind of money, what is your business whether government or pension funds paid your gratuity or not. Just 10k a month o, not 20k not 100k not 1 million, just 10k, it is just crazy.

See attached sheet for details

I find the values difficult to believe, can someone else also do the calculation and confirm I did not make a mistake.

This is good and brilliant I must say,kudos!!!

michaelogunleye:

And you would also get to sell the imported product at an higher cost because artificial scarcity would have been created, so who is the looser

Exactly.
The smuggler gains and government loses as usual.

ahiboilandgas:
am sending u a cold bottle of audio Heineken...take care

No shaking,1 Budweiser for you.

ahiboilandgas:
i don tire

Me too.

ahiboilandgas:
i supply to that Mrs filling station in michika.

Okay..

ahiboilandgas:
why is trump raising tarrifts against china ....no body banned rice ...import your rice through sea port and pay 100 percent duty and levy ....

Can you smuggle to America?
What kind of analogy is this?Even drug lord from colombia and mexico that build Subs to smuggle drugs and own planes with deleted transponders hardly succeed to america,talkless of ship carrying commodity.
So trump can afford to raise tariff,Nigeria can't else they finish it with smuggling.

ahiboilandgas:
new paper and media North...u know notting about michika

If you say so
I'm guessing you are their emir.

ahiboilandgas:
obj did for cement ,now rice , pros dairy have built a 50m dollars milk collection centres in Kaduna we use 1 bn dollars to import milk while we have 20m cattles roaming about causing trouble...problem lack of value chain ...with the cbn ban of dairy import...poor rural women can ranch cows for milking and sell to vendors who inturn sell to the milk processing centre .then processed into tin milk etc ....

CBN cannot continue to ban items one after the other,that was why I said devaluation will cut across all sectors simultaneously,even though it comes with short term suffering but pays off well in the long run.

Tobex4realTobex234:


Who I be?

I am just saying if I need 5,000 dollars today for personal use, why will I go to black market biko?

When there are options to get it at 420, 430.

So when I look at USD rate, nothing concern me with black market.

Exactly.
Not everyone needs it for personal needs.
Most need it for commercial reasons like importation and co.

arent88:
please where did u get this payment with food model from, that u are always emphasizing on. because I don't know which part of the north practise that.

Borno.
Mixhika,adamawa

Tobex4realTobex234:


Where una they always get una numbers from. Forget black market. Even Cowrywise and Chaka they sell USD for 430.

Anybody wey need USD for personal use make he buy from Binance.
Anybody wey need USD for legit purposes make he buy from CBN/banks.
Anybody wey wan speculate, this no be good time to buy, as things are quite volatile.

If I give you naira you first get me dollars at CBN price abeg?

ojesymsym:
Exactly, see fruits like Pine Apple also, they have very short shelf life.

Is there a technology for preserving tomatoes fresh for up to months?

Sell the tomato to tomato canning industry.
That way subsistent tomato planters will get more money for the fresh ones they sell to consumers for cook purposes because fresh tomatoes will be scarce,since there will be huge demand for fresh tomatoes from multiple factories.
Ten years after proper devaluation and everything balances.

ojesymsym:
When you are banning products, you choose your enemies wisely. France also increase tariff for wine and US retaliated and France has to retract, but if they increase tariff against Nigeria for example, nothing would have happened.
While we could getaway with the Thailand Rice ban, you will not be a wise leader to try such a thing with the US.

There are some people in life you do not go head to head with.

If you increase tariffs of certain imports in Nigeria ports,what stops me from importing the produce through cotonou and smuggle it to Nigeria?
That way your customs make zero income from the product you increased tariff on and I still get to sell in your market.

Tobex4realTobex234:


Naira has already appreciated to 415 na.

447 as we speak o.
The free fall might continue throughout this week.

ahiboilandgas:
kebbi state 88000 alone how about kano ,ebony ,how many rice famers became millionaire.....logistics how will thr 1 million tonne of lake rice move from kebbi to Lagos .how many workers will wacot 10bn naira kebbi factory employee..how about income tax how about staff canteens ,watcot contractor's.....how about choscharis rice mills ....how about hundered of trucks that supply sorghum to Nigeria breweries iganmu...millets to nestle plc agabara .....oboy travel....and learn how do u think beer is made or milo....

You keep talking about the rice revolution because the borders were shut and an outright ban was placed on it's import.
Now imagine if all the raw materials of almost every food we import was grown in the north in that kind of scale.
What is happening to rice now would be happening to corn,tomatoes,orange,livestock,etc too.
The industrialisation would have been massive and the North as a whole would have millions of naira millionaires and it wouldn't be at the expense of our land exports as borders will be wide open for business and the CBN will keep their money as they won't need to give Grants to anybody because capitalists have their own money.
If at all they fall short,they borrow from commercial bank.

ahiboilandgas:
u want me to believe your points over the cbn govenors own (88000 millionaires)

Honestly you don't have to believe me,because I don't own your thoughts,just like you said anybody not listed on NSE yesterday isn't worth $100m.
I can't change that but those who know,know.
But if there was demand for farm produce locally because of industrialisation,there wouldn't be just 88,000 peasant millionaires.
That number might get to 3,000,000 millionaires.
Having farming corporations will attract a lot of other businesses and contractors revolving around the farming plantations like;
Suppliers of hardware.
Logistic contractors.
Medical contractors.
Food Vendors to farmers,etc...
So you see,you can't give Grant's and expect growth.
Give the people demand and watch them grow by themselves.

mra123:


Clearly, he also lacks understanding of what capitalism is. It is solely design to enrich the rich and thus, giving a plate of rice, or whatever, to Almajira in return for the work the Almajiri does at one's farm is in itself capitalism.

That is slavery,not capitalism.
Capitalism will permit multiple investors in farming/plantation agriculture that wouldn't pay their workers in food.
If you offer the paying with food model,another corporation will steal your workers by offering money.
That is true capitalism.

I just got informed that Dollar has now increased to 447 as we speak...
Shebi I talk am yesterday.
You can't learn how to predict currency in economic books
Tomato selling school teaches more I guess.

Focusingmore:


What else can Nigeria capitalise on if not farming?

Devaluation will only plunder Nigeria into more poverty.

Take a look at the current happenings within the us stock market and the the economic realities, you will notice a disconnect.

The system is rigged. Forget about what you read in economic books.

I don't read economic books.
Very unrealistic for you to have assumed that.
There is something called business experience.

ahiboilandgas:
help your ignorance and pride and read the articles....a 10 bn wacot factoryis here....please ask the cbn govenor mr godwin ...cbn head quaters central business district Abuja...Where is the rice millions

Seem you are the ignorant one here honestly.
And I believe I've been very down to earth on this thread.
Reason why you have the guts to call me tomato seller which I agree and love.
You've been the one shouting oil and gas since to get noticed and you call another proud?Ironic if you ask me.
The people in trade and industry that are millionaires in Lagos are not living in huts while their money is in Abuja.
When you make money it becomes very obvious,reason why lekki,VI,etc...is what it is today.
Capitalism,not government funded unsustainable ventures.

If you go to a supermarket to buy corn flakes and Nigeria shabby Nasco is N750 for 375g and imported Kellogg's is N850 for 375g,what will you buy?
Be honest and answer to yourself not me as I know a lot of people here like to brag about money they probably don't have.
But if naira is devalued to N500/$,
375g kellogs will automatically jump to N1500 whereas nasco might remain at N750 or increase to N850 max.
In no time people will be forced to buy Nasco and forget kellogs and more people will enter the cornflakes production market to fill that void kellogs left.
It's that simple really,not by giving Grant's to people doing nasco.
Nothing will happen with grants or cheap loan that they will default because kellogs is taking their market share.
I believe I have been basic enough.

ojesymsym:
New Zealand cattle rearers, na helicopter they de use herd their cattle.

@conglomerate, the truth is that even when we hate to admit it, food in Nigeria is cheap and poor storage facility means that farmers will remain poor. You keep shouting mechanized farming, if you have ever tried farming that is when you will know what it is to produce products that middle men will price with an I don't care attitude of you either take the money or leave it because they know that your products are perishable. so if my small acre is difficult to sell at my price, what incentive is there for me to go mechanized next year?

Agricultural value chain is what will drive mechanization. The value chain will include, product preservation and storage, create products that need these products as raw materials so that they will be constant demand, semiprocess them and make them available at the international market for forex, packaging, processing and refining.

A lot of you don't understand what's going on obviously.
Now how do you create that value chain when imports are there to fight price wise with that thing that you will produce here that gives that farm produce value chain?
I really want you to tell me how.
The consumers don't care about value chain,they care about product quality and cheap pricing.
If you keep subsidising import by supplying cheap fx,how will the Nigeria value chain grow?
Gosh!!!

ahiboilandgas:
According to cbn governor 88000 farmers turned millionaires....88000 idle people turn millionares by playing nijabet i guess

So where did 88,000 people keep the millions then,when the same place is still suffering from medieval diseases and a complete lack of infrastructure,down to even toothbrush?
Now what if there were plantation corporations instead employing hundreds of thousands of northerners paying them and average of 50k monthly and there would still be the 88,000 millionaire capitalists too.
What will happen to the place?
Multiple industries will spring up in the place due to millions of people having disposable income na.
Rather than funding 10,000 farmers with low interest loans that can always hire almajiris and pay them with food rather than money.
You grow a society by creating demand,not giving Grant's to a few while the rest wallow in poverty,widening the gap between social classes.
A person earning 50k a month in the north will no longer find living in a hut comfortable,he will like to rent selfcon.
This is real estate market springing up already.

CBN have been giving agricultural loans to farmers and Grants since 13BC in Nigeria.
Why has the north that is dominated by farming not improve,rather trade and industry dominated Lagos is turning to London?
The reason is simple,the farming model the north practices is mostly subsistence farming,not industrial one.
No one just wakes up and start building mechanised farms and industrial scale ones due to emotions.
Farm scaling is driven by product demand.
If there is a factory that need 5 million tonnes of orange annually in Nigeria,you will start seeing orange plantation spring up,not farms.This way the northerners that will work there will be paid salaries,not with plate of food and will increase the standard of living of that place.
But how would someone come and establish that kind of juice factory in Nigeria when he knows he can just import and cash out rather than go through the stress and risk of running a factory?
How do you stop imports without devaluing?Bans?what of smuggling?or will you shut your borders because of this and destroy your exports like Buhari did?
Rice farming started increasing in the north because Coscharis and other industrialists started building mills around the country because of the ban of importation of rice.
Now imagine if fx becomes so expensive.It will be like an indirect ban of almost all products we use to import and hence,industries that cut across all consumables will start to spring up just like rice.
That is how farmers are encouraged,not by giving them loans that will likely turn to bad debts if they don't find who to buy their produce due to imports killing local demand.