Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 12:03pm On Oct 02, 2024 |
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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 11:58am On Oct 02, 2024 |
Tpharell: To help you, NNPC did not take Seplat to court as they had no issue with them whatsoever, instead they took their JV partner Mobil to court and got the extra 10% stake in the JV as out of court settlement compromise, a reduction in the stake of incoming Seplat which had not originally been factored in the transaction and market pricing.
Its not even up for argument that the deal started and was approved back in 2022 by Buhari, and Seplat did experience relative bull around the time. My point is many investors have already priced the Mobil acquisition in the current pricing so don’t expect the sort of Oando raging bull. Nobody said anything about “Never”, but it definitely and certainly cannot be like Oando, i can guarantee that.
Finally, everyone that is a keen follower of Seplat as I am knows the deal is inching close to finalizing, the president himself confirmed it in his speech yesterday. Seplat had made its projections of reserve, production, etc post acquisition on the basis of taking up Mobil’s 40% stake in the JV, and now that it is down to 30, investors are repricing the post acquisition assets and Seplat shares valuation. That 10% concession to NNPC is definitely not good for the acquisition in the eyes of investors but ‘a necessary evil’ to discharge with the long winding legal huddles & encumbrances. Still, closing out on the divestment will be a welcome development that will be a relief to many anxious investors. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 11:33am On Oct 02, 2024 |
mikeapollo: Never say never. Seplat can still experience a bull when the Mobil deal is officially sealed and announced as completed. Some people said similar things about the Oando-ENI deal, but we saw what happened to Oando share price when the deal was signed/announced in London.
About the approval, it was NNPC that took Seplat to court over the Mobil deal, and obtained court injunction which halted the process and caused the delay. The parties just had an out-of-court settlement recently on 30 May 2024 and the NNPC withdrew the case from court. A compromise was reached with NNPC having 70% in the JV (instead of the usual 60%). Seplat therefore has 30%.
So the application for Seplat-Mobil transaction began officially in June 2024 ; the PIA provides that ministerial approval should be given within 120 days if all requirements are satisfied To help you, NNPC did not take Seplat to court as they had no issue with them whatsoever, instead they took their JV partner Mobil to court and got the extra 10% stake in the JV as out of court settlement compromise, a reduction in the stake of incoming Seplat which had not originally been factored in the transaction and market pricing. Its not even up for argument that the deal started and was approved back in 2022 by Buhari, and Seplat did experience relative bull around the time. My point is many investors have already priced the Mobil acquisition in the current pricing so don’t expect the sort of Oando raging bull. Nobody said anything about “Never”, but it definitely and certainly cannot be like Oando, i can guarantee that. Finally, everyone that is a keen follower of Seplat as I am knows the deal is inching close to finalizing, the president himself confirmed it in his speech yesterday. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 11:00am On Oct 02, 2024 |
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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 10:45am On Oct 02, 2024 |
Willie2015: My CP for Seplat is below N1300... I still have d capacity to increase my units... I assure u it will clear N5k comfortably before fin yr end Sure it will more than likely climb above 5,000 based on it’s organic growth not so much the Mobil acquisition. It’s just now waiting for the usual ‘divine intervention’ to do 4,500 being on full bid at 4100 now |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 10:41am On Oct 02, 2024 |
In a sane system somebody will pay a hefty price for that Caverton “mistake” which is causing massive loss to investors.
How is that even a mistake, and how did regulators miss such obvious blunder? |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 10:37am On Oct 02, 2024 |
Willie2015: UCAP Research raised TP to N5000 plus The Mobil divestment has largely been factored into Seplat current pricing, so don’t expect the sort of Oando bull when the deal is sealed. Recall in 2022 president Buhari did approve the divestment and Seplat shares experience some bull back then, only for the same president to reverse his decision few days later in a move that clearly showed he was not on top of things as president and minister of petroleum |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 2:10pm On Sep 25, 2024 |
ogoo4real: @yMcy56 welldone to the big guys. Seplat officially moved @4103.10 At last! |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 5:42am On Sep 20, 2024 |
chimex38: Exactly my submission. Na For countries wey get 24hrs/day, Average of 300/360 days of electricity per year. Not Africa yet. even at that, I think to power Manufacturing Equipments to meet their high capacity and efficiency, you just need fossil fuel--Coal, diesel, petrol, Gas, kero, etc.
Rnewables of Solar, Wind, biowaste are niche specific and tailored to particular equipments..not flexible for dynamic situations. Africa and the rest of the developing world cannot achieve the level of industrial revolution the west experienced in the 19th & 20th century without fossil fuels. The power requirements of a large scale car plant can hardly be generated by today’s available renewable energy sources. Haven’t heard of one powered by windmills or sunlight. It is almost inexplicable that the same west that used petroleum and coal to catalyze its industrial revolution are now preaching climate change and green energy to those on the cusp of industrial development. How can Nigeria generate enough power to boost it’s abysmal wattage and overcome it’s crippling power challenges, if not by a source even more revolutionary than fossil, a source like nuclear? |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 12:29pm On Sep 19, 2024 |
Willie2015: Bonus from where now... After 4 times dividend in a year... U too like money  Was wondering same too! |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 12:28pm On Sep 19, 2024 |
Willie2015: U dey worri urself too much.. D owners will move it when they are ready... Ur own is to sit down dey look... When it reach ur junction ..u sell.. There is too much inertia working against its momentum because of the 100,000 requirement. A split of Seplat shares will reduce it’s ‘weight’ and by extension the inertia working against its motion. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 12:25pm On Sep 19, 2024 |
vacanci: No one to sell rather Any likelihood of a Seplat share split? |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 10:22am On Sep 19, 2024 |
If not for the 100,000 trade rule, Seplat would be approaching N10,000 by now. It’s been on full bid for some 2 straight weeks! |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 5:55am On Sep 18, 2024 |
emmanuelewumi: I give up. I have always used Kunle, Tunde, Aminuband Musa in the past.
All the same, I no dey look Uche face Just ignore such people who are too enamored with life challenges to see the great illustration and humor there |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 5:52am On Sep 18, 2024 |
Seunn11: O&O has achieved what no other indigenous oil and gas company has achieved.
Let's call it Uche, Segun, David, Babangida, Abidoshaker, Emmanuel, Mercy, Seun, etc.
More grace. What did Oando achieve that no other indigenous oil and gas company has? |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 1:30pm On Sep 17, 2024 |
emmanuelewumi: No record of free cash flow for Uche, infact he had to sell his Jeep, land and house in order to enhance liquidity yet his liabilities are more than his assets
He found out he could get cheaper loans from First Bank, so he got another loan from First Bank in order to settle Access Bank because those guys at Access are Badass Now, this is a rather bleak picture! But Uche is able to keep up appearances, and is considered the toast of the town amongst young women in the area. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 12:52pm On Sep 17, 2024 |
unite4real: GEREGU has moved
N1,050 ******** Thank goodness! Have been stuck there forever! |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 11:15am On Sep 17, 2024 |
Tpharell: While I have not seen anything empirical that shows Oando was favored against Seplat and Renaissance in the ongoing divestment, and nothing shows president Tinubu has any direct interest in Oando which was founded even before he became governor in 1999, you cannot pretend or discount the reality of how Nigeria works. People own companies by proxy in a manner that the ‘veil cannot be lifted’. It will be downright and gravely delusional to not consider that Wale Tinubu who has direct access to the president (a blood relative) can very easily call in a favor for Oando and the weak regulatory bodies will read the body language coming out of the villa and do the needful. Let me also add that Oando had an advantage over the other divesting entities that could have played into their sealing their deal before others. Being already a participant in the JV with 20% acquired from ConocoPhillips a decade ago, they added Agip’s 20% state in the JV and became the operator. So the JV was already familiar terrain for them even before the divestment, unlike Seplat who has never participated in the Mobil JV they seek to acquire now |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 11:01am On Sep 17, 2024 |
mikeapollo: The provisions are meant to provide required funds for the eventual decommissioning of the assets in future, even if in 20 years time from now. It is an industry requirement or standard that players in the upstream sector must comply with, because the decommissioning costs can be very huge and it is better they make adequate provisions long before the actual time/year the costs are incurred or expended Couldn’t have said it better, thank you! |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 11:00am On Sep 17, 2024 |
KarlTom: I don't think they are going to decommission any of NAOC assets. The decommissioning (and abandonment) provision of the PIA 2021 provides for funds to be ‘reserved’ for that purpose in the future at the end of the asset life, not to be decommissioned immediately. All the divesting entities Mobil, Shell, Agip have old and aging assets like QIT terminal in Eket, Bonny terminal, and Brass terminal, which is why the regulator is insisting before approving. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 10:48am On Sep 17, 2024 |
megawealth01: I wouldn't want anyone to insult you because of the government. They probably have their agents here Do I sound like am not ready for them? Let them bring it on, I have all day! |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 10:47am On Sep 17, 2024 |
BabsO2: Oando booked a higher provision for decommissioning activities of N176b compared to SEPLAT's N117b in 2023. Even though they both reported having N3T worth of assets in 2023 The decommissioning assessment which is done by NUPRC is based on the age and value of the assets. I don’t know enough about the age and valuation of the assets of both companies to comment on that. What I do know is that Oando’s provisions for decommissioning & abandonment for FY2024 will increase to reflect that of the AGIP assets they just acquired. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 10:38am On Sep 17, 2024 |
megawealth01: At least it a step in the right direction if wholeheartedly supported by government institutions You mean the same weak and ineffectual agencies waiting for body language (odor) to act? Lost cause! |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 10:34am On Sep 17, 2024 |
mikeapollo: Thank you for the education. Please, kindly help us educate those people who are saying that the Mobil-Seplat deal was deliberately frustrated by the govt in order to favour another company. Unfortunately, that line of thought was also shared by an opposition politician (reason why I say that every politician, from both govt and opposition, must be scrutinized properly when they make comments) While I have not seen anything empirical that shows Oando was favored against Seplat and Renaissance in the ongoing divestment, and nothing shows president Tinubu has any direct interest in Oando which was founded even before he became governor in 1999, you cannot pretend or discount the reality of how Nigeria works. People own companies by proxy in a manner that the ‘veil cannot be lifted’. It will be downright and gravely delusional to not consider that Wale Tinubu who has direct access to the president (a blood relative) can very easily call in a favor for Oando and the weak regulatory bodies will read the body language coming out of the villa and do the needful. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 10:10am On Sep 17, 2024 |
mikeapollo: Dangote Refinery is truly a ''game changer'' for good reason. It creates jobs, saves/reduces dollar demand etc.
However, Dangote is being blackmailed by a mischievous and disingenuous NNPC, which as mischievously released the cost of PMS from the refinery to pre-empt and pitch the people against the refinery. Dangote bought its current stock of crude in dollars, and that is what he can sell to NNPC until October 1, when he receives crude in naira from NNPC NNPC's has not yet sold its crude in naira to Dangote (until Oct 1), so why is the NNPC rushing to tell us the cost makeup of PMS from the refinery's stock of crude which was bought in dollars? NNPC deliberately did that so that the citizens would complain that the cost (N898) is too high and provide an excuse for NNPC to justify importing from abroad. If the NNPC was transparent and accountable, they should have given us the cost make up of their imported PMS long before now, so we can compare with the cost of PMS refined by Dangote from their dollar-based imported crude.
The key thing to focus on is this: The NNPC should tell us the naira cost/price at which they will be supplying crude to Dangote, from October 1. Then we can also get the cost/price of refined PMS from Dangote from October 1. If the cost of crude from NNPC is competitive/cheap, the refined product from Dangote will also be competitive/cheap. The NNPC should stop playing on the intelligence of Nigerians. Even that “reduce dollar demand” is yet another delusion, as what I see is that the demand and supply will cancel out when you factor in the FX loss due to selling crude in naira. It is certainly not uhuru yet even with Dangote refining locally, as there will still be petrol scarcity every now and then, like when Lokoja gets flooded due to the terrible state of infrastructure in Nigeria. Dangote refinery will create jobs and produce raw materials for petrochemical industry, but will certainly not cure our FX challenges, end importation entirely or “crash” petrol prices. For now, let’s enjoy the sentimental value of “refining our crude ourselves locally” |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 9:57am On Sep 17, 2024 |
BabsO2: On your quoted Investopedia picture, I don't think (I am not sure as I rely only on their published financial statements - perhaps another media hype) the plc is insolvent as it still meets its payments to lenders. Also, it generated a positive cashflow from operations in the unaudited 2023 FY published. Infact its cash balance grew in 2023 after cashflow payments to lenders and cashflow out for investment activities, suggesting a turnaround has commenced. Looking closely at the make-up of liabilities a sizeable amount is provision for expected settlements that arose in 2023 plus also provisions for decommissioning activities. If one looks at quarter on quarter perhaps one will have a better clue at that provision to see if there is possibility for the final amount coming out higher or smaller. Also, Oando appears prudent for putting provisions for decommissioning activities in its liabilities. It is worth cross-checking if other local oil production companies like SEPLAT and ARADEL have provisions for decommissioning activities and to understand what exactly the provisions are for.
This is not a warning or Sell or Buy recommendation. But a discuss. Oando may fall or rise in price. Good and objective take. Take note also that the decommissioning provision is a new regulatory requirement of the PIA which the NUPRC is enforcing in the divestments. I know for a fact it is one of the things holding back the Mobil/ Seplat deal as the fund had not initially being factored in the deal. The divesting assets are old and some are close to their design end life, upon which they need to be decommissioned. The PIA framers thought it wise to make provision for a dedicated fund for that activity |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 9:23am On Sep 17, 2024 |
megawealth01: Lead me not into temptation. I want to maintain my lane with those institutions/names you mentioned  Strong institutions not individuals and bodies that are subservient to their paymasters and the Establishment. It’s not just SEC, NGX, CAC, and other players in the corporate sector. It’s every one of the very many regulatory bodies in Nigeria. They are all weak and subservient, and I don’t see how a whole NNPC with the backing of the establishment cannot have its way with SEC & NGX |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 9:12am On Sep 17, 2024 |
megawealth01: They should list in NGX jare Even if they did, it won’t change much. Where do we always get this delusion of ‘game changer’? That’s how Dangote was supposed to be the game changer to crash petrol price, and PVC/IREV were supposed to be the game changers in the electoral process. Today we know better. Without strong institutions, it’s all a waste of time. Recall Oando got suspended on JSE for late filing, but NGX and SEC here where the company operates all looked away. With the lawlessness and impunity of the establishment, NNPCL listing cannot change much as market regulators will be waiting for the body language (odor) of the government to decide which way to act |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 8:14am On Sep 17, 2024 |
crownprince2017: Break jaw bawo, na boxing or wrestling we they fight. this is a joke taken too far. Just trying to make a strong point about the grandstanding even after clearly getting the call wrong. It’s bad enough that some may have missed out based on his wrong readings, but it’s adding insult to their injury to be doubling down on it. If this was a betting center in the ‘area’ (hood), that jaw breaking will probably not be a joke taken too far! |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 6:59am On Sep 17, 2024 |
ndept: Habaa oga. Don't you have a little bit of moral, shame or humility? The same Oando you have been warning people not to buy since it was N25 moved in price to N90 in less than 2 months and humbled you and your warning. Yet you still have the justification to still be talking about it, instead of you to keep quiet and enter into your shell quietly. Haba, please respect yourself and concern yourself with other important things that will better your life. Is it because of Oando that you came to NSEMPA? Do you know that some people here may have missed out of the Oando largesse due to your persisted grievance against Oando? Traders, including myself here made massive gain from Oando and will still enter Oando if I still see the price as being undervalued when they release their result towards the end of this month.
Once again, Kudos to people like @Bagwa, prophet Utuocha, Ymcy, onlygentleguy, mikeapollo, megawealth and others who sticked to their perceived vision and journey of Oando and by now everyone has, and is still reaping massively from the Oando capital appreciation. If he were a stockbroker he will likely have been fired for failing woefully in the KPIs. Heck, if this was a physical forum some of those investors who lost out will attempt to break his jaws for grandstanding, even after what he spoke about grew from 20 to 90. It’s just to accept that one missed this one and move on to other opportunities, and stop whining over spilled milk. |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 6:47am On Sep 17, 2024 |
emmanuelewumi: Leave matter for Mathias. You are sounding like a broken record.
Chill till the result is out.
Although I don't expect much as per the negative shareholders fund or insolvency status of the business business for the next 2 years and above Not “sounding like”, already is a broken record of pain, regret, frustration and sadism here on account of missing out on a once in a lifetime opportunity. I left Oando at just over N12 and when it climbed to over 40 I used to be frustrated every time it hit 10%, because I was hoping for it to reverse so I can jump in. I managed to get in around 50-60 and now look forward to the 10% rise that keeps frustrating that fellow. The lesson is to pick yourself up when you fall, and seek for consolation as I did, but that fellow has remained on the floor ever since, whining over the spilled milk |
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tpharell: 6:36am On Sep 17, 2024 |
ndept: Habaa oga. Don't you have a little bit of moral, shame or humility? The same Oando you have been warning people not to buy since it was N25 moved in price to N90 in less than 2 months and humbled you and your warning. Yet you still have the justification to still be talking about it, instead of you to keep quiet and enter into your shell quietly. Haba, please respect yourself and concern yourself with other important things that will better your life. Is it because of Oando that you came to NSEMPA? Do you know that some people here may have missed out of the Oando largesse due to your persisted grievance against Oando? Traders, including myself here made massive gain from Oando and will still enter Oando if I still see the price as being undervalued when they release their result towards the end of this month.
Once again, Kudos to people like @Bagwa, prophet Utuocha, Ymcy, onlygentleguy, mikeapollo, megawealth and others who sticked to their perceived vision and journey of Oando and by now everyone has, and is still reaping massively from the Oando capital appreciation. He is clearly bitter and pained that he missed out on an opportunity of a lifetime. Everyone will feel that way, but many will pick themselves and move on instead of whining like a faulty wheel brake. |