jonnysessy:



This is massive. When I checked the prices of these stocks mentioned. I refrain from going for them because I wonder how many units i will be able to acquire. But when I grow up, I would like to be like you.

Mpeace:
Contrary to what some thought, the Isreali Iranian conflict is actually causing a rise in oil prices.

yMcy56:
SEPLAT
Moved with +10% !
Up with N451.30!!
Price now @N4,964.30!!!

All those chopping SEPLAT loot, be preparing to do Christmas giveaway this year.....😁

The masquerade must be doing press up by now. 😁

Tpharell:
Seplat on the verge again, waiting for ‘divine intervention’

ositadima1:


So, you don't get it yet. For all we know, the breakdown may be grossly inaccurate (to borrow his language). The post said barrels per day, so what's the point of the breakdown, which is itself still an estimation?

If the inputs are wrong, then correct the posts. If my calculation is wrong, correct my calculations. This is my last post on this topic with you. If you don't get it, so be it.

mikeapollo:


Great piece.!
I will encourage you to always share your knowledge in these matters. I am learning a lot.
We may disagree on our assessment or opinions about stocks because of our investment interests.
But where professional knowledge about matters or issues in a particular sector (e.g. energy sector) is concerned, I will urge all of us to appreciate knowledge when shared by those who know better.
It is the knowledge that matters (after all, we used to listen and learn from our lecturers in school even when we did not like them because they were too harsh or chasing the same babe with us ).

ositadima1:


So ThisDayLive's numbers are wrong? Why didn't you come here earlier? It was posted here for more than two days. And what are the actual numbers? How can we substantiate your figures?

ositadima1:


I take correction very well; that's how I learn. In this case, I clearly stated that my estimates are based on ThisDayLive inputs. I never claimed 100,000 barrels a day was the actual figure. So, I don't see what your correction was. If the figure is wrong, okay, but what I was more interested in were the other costs and whether they are in line. You started giving long explanations about BOE, barrels, and conversions, which are irrelevant to my post. One barrel is about 76 dollars, and the publication referred to barrels per day.

ositadima1:


Unless your definition of annual return is different, the return in a year is the closing price divided by the opening price.

For example, as per NGX, a stock is capped at 10% daily movement; it can't gain more than 10% in a day. If a stock drops 10% intraday but finally closes at a 10% gain, it still made 10% that day. This is the standard definition, unless you want to introduce your own.

Omooloriredade:


Hence the reason as stated "should have been reported as".

I see you don't like to be corrected.

Omooloriredade:


I tried to research if there was any legal basis for that but found nothing to support it. Some articles seems to suggest the NNPC sort a waiver in case they wanted a third party participant or investor in the future. Why would the NNPC seek such waiver? Could they be saving the 10% for a third party (if true).

Anyway, I couldn't tell ya what happened there so let me just stop with the speculation.

ositadima1:


Mister..., Seplat did not achieve a 300% return in any recent years. It opened this year at 2,310 and closed yesterday at 4,513.4, for a 195% return (R+1). The returns for previous years were 210% in 2023, 169% (R+1) in 2022, and 161% (R+1) in 2021.

unite4real:
In a sane clime, Zenith Bank stocks price is supposed to take a hit after having 4 days of downtime and trapped funds.

Omooloriredade:


Good attempt but unfortunately GROSSLY inaccurate.

* Peak Oil production was not 100,000bbls/day. Should have been reported as 100,000BOE/day. Also, Peak production can't be used for forecasting.
* Based on point above re BOE, you can't multiply this figure by $76 (the price of oil).
* Gas production figure is wrong. Don't know where that came from. Oando produced c. 31,912,680 MMBtu of gas in 2023.
* Average realised price of gas in 2023 was about $2 per MMBtu. Note - Futures contracts are usually used hedge commodity price risk.
* Your annual revenue was therefore grossly overstated which throws off the rest of your calculations.

However, I commend you for this intellectual exercise.

Things to note:

Gas:
1000Scf = 1Mcf
1000Mcf = 1MMcf
1000MMcf = 1Bcf
1000Bcf = 1Tcf

BOE (Barrel of OIL Equivalent)
1BOE = 6000Scf or 6Mcf or 5.8MMBtu (approx 6MMBtu)

Oil
1BOE = 1bbl (basically oil quantity needs no conversion. Unlike gas and NGLs, what you get is what it is)

So when an Upstream company reports production numbers, they usually refer to BOE to capture Oil, Natural Gas and Natural Gas liquids. Also, you would often see Oil companies qualify an oil well or OML by the proportion of Oil it produces e.g OML ABC producing 70% Oil (that is the % of oil in the BOE).

ositadima1:
All this over sabi people that can't read.

Payunsin:

The money we made from Oando is peace of a lifetime if judiciously used.

Nataba:
Equity market drops 1.19% amid sell-offs in dangote cement, 27 others

https://businesspost.ng/economy/equity-market-drops-1-19-amid-sell-offs-in-dangote-cement-27-others/

mikeapollo:


SEPLAT is moving oooo!
None of the upstream oil and gas companies should be ignored. The govt will push them because it needs money. Aradel, Oando and Seplat should be watched closely

Omooloriredade:


Production costs per BOE based on AUDITED 2023 annual reports:

Seplat - $10.4/BOE
Aradel - $21.0/bbls (Reported in bbls so refinery costs included. About 33% of crude produced feeds their refinery)
Oando - TBC

This is the fact of actual production cost. However, there are other taxes and royalties that apply in Oil & Gas production which is technically not included in determining cost of production. It is an industry standard the world over. It is technically incorrect to sum up all taxes, royalties to determine the cost of production.

As for Nigeria's interest in JV especially share of production, the country has the RIGHT for up to 60% as per the PIA.

https://www.morganlewis.com/pubs/2021/12/nigeria-overhauls-its-oil-and-gas-laws-with-petroleum-industry-act

Omooloriredade:


Good attempt but unfortunately GROSSLY inaccurate.

* Peak Oil production was not 100,000bbls/day. Should have been reported as 100,000BOE/day. Also, Peak production can't be used for forecasting.
* Based on point above re BOE, you can't multiply this figure by $76 (the price of oil).
* Gas production figure is wrong. Don't know where that came from. Oando produced c. 31,912,680 MMBtu of gas in 2023.
* Average realised price of gas in 2023 was about $2 per MMBtu. Note - Futures contracts are usually used hedge commodity price risk.
* Your annual revenue was therefore grossly overstated which throws off the rest of your calculations.

However, I commend you for this intellectual exercise.

Things to note:

Gas:
1000Scf = 1Mcf
1000Mcf = 1MMcf
1000MMcf = 1Bcf
1000Bcf = 1Tcf

BOE (Barrel of OIL Equivalent)
1BOE = 6000Scf or 6Mcf or 5.8MMBtu (approx 6MMBtu)

Oil
1BOE = 1bbl (basically oil quantity needs no conversion. Unlike gas and NGLs, what you get is what it is)

So when an Upstream company reports production numbers, they usually refer to BOE to capture Oil, Natural Gas and Natural Gas liquids. Also, you would often see Oil companies qualify an oil well or OML by the proportion of Oil it produces e.g OML ABC producing 70% Oil (that is the % of oil in the BOE).

Streetinvestor2:
I don't think naija takes the lion share in the crude business based on agreement with foreign ioc i know.Thr percentage for ioc is usually higher than naija own because is them that brings the fund and equipment for the whole process. I think naira takes like 40% or even less.And I don't think Oando will be doing more than 50000 for now too

yMcy56:

Oga, you sure say you know the difference between emotions and facts?
You sure say you know the meaning of emotions at all? Lol.

You don't care if it gets to SEPLAT price?
If you jump in will you tell anybody? 😁
Self deceit is a crime against oneself......and possibly those who believes in you. 🤭

godlyguy:
One company seems to be doing yahoo oil

Be wise

mikeapollo:


Thanks, for the correction. I mistook Seplat for Mobil.

yMcy56:
OANDO

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42260_OANDO_PLC-OANDO_PRESS_RELEASE__CORPORATE_ACTIONS_OCTOBER_2024.pdf

Tpharell:

To help you, NNPC did not take Seplat to court as they had no issue with them whatsoever, instead they took their JV partner Mobil to court and got the extra 10% stake in the JV as out of court settlement compromise, a reduction in the stake of incoming Seplat which had not originally been factored in the transaction and market pricing.

Its not even up for argument that the deal started and was approved back in 2022 by Buhari, and Seplat did experience relative bull around the time. My point is many investors have already priced the Mobil acquisition in the current pricing so don’t expect the sort of Oando raging bull. Nobody said anything about “Never”, but it definitely and certainly cannot be like Oando, i can guarantee that.

Finally, everyone that is a keen follower of Seplat as I am knows the deal is inching close to finalizing, the president himself confirmed it in his speech yesterday.

mikeapollo:


Never say never.
Seplat can still experience a bull when the Mobil deal is officially sealed and announced as completed.
Some people said similar things about the Oando-ENI deal, but we saw what happened to Oando share price when the deal was signed/announced in London.

About the approval, it was NNPC that took Seplat to court over the Mobil deal, and obtained court injunction which halted the process and caused the delay.
The parties just had an out-of-court settlement recently on 30 May 2024 and the NNPC withdrew the case from court. A compromise was reached with NNPC having 70% in the JV (instead of the usual 60%). Seplat therefore has 30%.

So the application for Seplat-Mobil transaction began officially in June 2024 ; the PIA provides that ministerial approval should be given within 120 days if all requirements are satisfied

BullBearMkt:

What is the mistake made bro?

Willie2015:


My CP for Seplat is below N1300...
I still have d capacity to increase my units...
I assure u it will clear N5k comfortably before fin yr end

Willie2015:


UCAP Research raised TP to N5000 plus