₦airaland Forum

garfield1:
Ayu is from there so pdp will get votes.alia will deliver katsina ala

Okay. Don't forget Ayu na resurrected politician sha

garfield1:
I shock.obi is only winning guma of ortom and makurdi but for tinubu to be winning gwer,buruku,logo,kwande,he will win

What's happening in Gboko. That's another huge LGA and Katsina ala

garfield1:
I shock.obi is only winning guma of ortom and makurdi but for tinubu to be winning gwer,buruku,logo,kwande,he will win

Don't be shocked.
Akume is still lord over there.
Benue people see Ibos like the way the typical Hausa still does.

garfield1:
Tinubu is winning akpabio zone

Annang zone is Akpabio

Governor' zone is Eket/Oron

Ibibio zone is Uyo and co.


Obi is surely doing some disruption.

garfield1:
That he lost his polling unit means nothing,it is just a unit..in benue,obi is mostly winning ido.a while tinubu is winning tiv votes but obi won makurdi and guma

This is what is happening. Gboko, Vandekiya, etc are likely going to APC

PrinceDoctor:
Not here to argue with anybody. Tinubu wins this election. Peter Obi will not win Akwa Ibom State. Results seen are from Uyo Urban and its environs. Rural votes are yet to come in. APC will have 25% in Akwa Ibom. Generally, APC will have the spread and win this Election.

I agree. This is a place I know. OBI will find it hard to win.

4ward4:
Joker, for saying Obi Can't do well in NC. He already have 3 NC states in the Bag. For the Chairman of APC to loss his polling unit in Nasaraw says alot . Benue already Delivered. Plateau is certain...You looking at 2.5/6 zones.

Nasarawa will be fragmented. I don't see the winner taking more than 40%, maybe not even up to.

Workch:
Tinubu is not leading anything.

If you like don't tune in to channels to get verified results. Be whining on nairaland.

Peter Obi has a comfortable lead

Okay, just wait this evening.

brown3:
cry of an u'rchin. PO is a national project

You call me an urchin? It's well.

arena07:
You are a cheap liar igbo only voted obasanjo simply because it was two yorubas that was contesting for the post of president. Igbo didn't vote MKO abiola it was only Anambra state that he won the remaining was won by NRC.

Seems you know your political history.

I don't know how politicians don't learn from history, I mean recent history.

The United opposition won the election in 2015. Now, in 2023, they think they can do it alone. All this fragmentation is giving Tinubu the lead.

I saw it coming but many are still turning a blind eye to it. They will call it rigging

Saintinoo:
Obi is on his way to win Taraba, getting 30 percent in Adamawa, 30 percent in Gombe, 30 percent in Kaduna, he is getting votes in Borno, and Bauchi.

Forget social media results, call people that are in those states, i know states like Kebbi, Jigawa, Zamfara is a no for Obi.

30% in Gombe is a big ask. Getting votes in Borno and Bauchi? Is this your own subtle way of saying 30%🤣😂

He will do poorly here:

Borno, Kebbi, Zamfara, Jigawa, Niger, Katsina, Bauchi, Sokoto, Kwara, Bauchi, Yobe, and Kogi.

Felabrity:
States Obi is performing poorly in

Osun
Ekiti
Kebbi
..

And all core northern states, except one or 2

CutieKing:
You are quite right but there are 19 states in the north but with 13 of it form the core north.
Obi can't get 25% in any of these states.
How does he want to win ?.

A lot started being politically active this election and it's showing in the way they talk

garfield1:
Cross river.apc is winning the rural areas sir.they have won obubra and yakurr already

Expected.Those who know politics won't be surprised if true.

Iamgrey5:
This is southern Bauchi that PDP normally wins for fun.

I think Atiku will be very angry with the way Northern Christians have voted because I believe obi won like 70% of Northern Christian votes from what I am seeing so far

That's very likely. OBI should do beta among Christian voters in the North.

ekolobaba:
If Obi wins 25% of all the states I listed and Ogun, I will deactivate my account.

Bonus#

If Obi wins more than 30% in Lagos, I will deactivate my account.

Most of you fell for the PU counts. The LGA results I’m seeing now, Obi is losing big even in areas in Lagos people have been post PU votes all day and celebrating prematurely. Obi will get 25% of the votes in Lagos by the skin of his teeth and that’s the only state he’ll come 2nd in SW.

APC will win 4 states in NC; Sweep SW; win 3/4 in NW and win 2 in NE. APC will 25% of the votes in at least 27 states.

I would be shocked he doesn't get 30% in Lagos.

What many people don't know is that Yorubas are still they majority in Lagos and that will show.

Subzero047:
Voter apathy lol, Peter Obi got 3000 votes from Enugu stadium alone, you don't know how we came out today

It will become clear tomorrow. We dey together.

ravensckar:
These two cases you mentioned are a bit different. For Obasanjo, it wasn't his doing per se, rather it was the handiwork of the political machinery on which he was riding at that time. And for Buhari, being the president gives him the political resources to do and undo. After all, he is the number one party leader. But Atiku Abubakar doesn't have that kind of political machinery at the moment. Like you tightly said, he should have appeased all parties first, then grab power and do as he pleases (just like Buhari).

By the way, it has been fun discussing politics with someone who truly understands politics (unlike those Andrew Liver Salt supporters). My apologies for initially calling you a 'political neophyte'. You really are politically inclined.

It's all love from here. No offense taken. We all can be emotive at times. Enjoy.

Slippy:
Take am easy. No full LGA anywhere has been called.

Leave them. By this time tomorrow, their hand go don weak

qtx:
So what are thoughts for saying that?

The only place OBi will win with a wide margin is SE, but the small voting population plus voters' apathy will be a problem.

aremso:
am here in ph if BAT does not win 30 percent is sure is the votes from the north that will decide the final winner even former speaker dogara pu still went to apc

He's from a Christian-dominated local government oo

ravensckar:
To a reasonable extent you can change your party chairman, but trust me, it's a recipe for disaster. As a presidential candidate, your party chairman must be 100% loyal to you to avoid any last minute backstabbing. I stand by my earlier submission, changing the party chairman was part of why Jonathan lost his reelection bid. If you want to know the importance of party chiarmanship to a presidential candidate, check why Tinubu was almost schemed out of his party primary despite being a stakeholder. If not for his political sagacity, the cabals would have dealt with him through Abdullahi Adamu.

In all, Atiku was right not to have conceded the party chisrmanship to Wike & co but I think he should have compensated them in another way. That way, today's disaster would have been averted. Keeping Obi and appeasing Wike & co with promises of cabinet positions would suffice. Again, some of these politicians are not as politically savvy as we assume them to be.

Bonus Point- In 2015 when Atiku crossed to the APC, that was the day he dug his political grave.

But Atiku is looking for power. Remember OBJ. When he came in in 1999, he had no real structure within the PDP. You know what he did? He chased out Solomon Lar the PDP chair at the time and one of the founding fathers. You see how Buhari comot APC party chair put magomago caretaker committe. What I'm saying in essence is that as president you have a very powerful leverage.

Get there first then deal with Wike later. It's possible.

Svoboda:
Maybe his chi has said he'd never be president....i dont know, until the final declaration is made.

He's performing too badly in the South.

Efewestern:
He took a big risk.

If Obident vote against his candidate in the Guber election, he is a goner.

Governorship is quite different. More so, it's holding on different date. That helps Wike.

qtx:
The toughest election in Nigeria so far. But whoever wins, will lead with a narrow margin. Northwest will be a strong determining factor. lets watch out and see

It won't be as narrow as you think.

grandstar:
I was laughing when people were condemning him for his Muslim-Muslim ticket. Had he done otherwise, he would have been slaughtered up North,

I agree. Tinubu na Don.

Efewestern:
25% is achievable for him.

AA thought he had SS in his bag. Reason he failed to concede to any of Wike's demand. An arrogant politician isn't a wise politician. The southern caucus that he banked his hope on are paperweights.

You give and take in life. Already, lessons are been learnt, albeit in a tough way.

Yeah, he though he had the SS in the bag and that even SE would be a battle ground for him and Obi, and he was ready for it, after all SE has a relatively small voting population.

Efewestern:
I still believe BAT will take Lagos but I've adjusted my margin to meet with the present realities. Lagos is indeed a tough battle between LP & APC. Most results released are traditional PDP Strongholds. So it is rather too early to call. LP will come second in all SW state. A very big addition to Obi's emergence.

Wike is a politician. His anger was quit understandable but I was surprised with the way he is pulling support for BAT. He knew about the Obi wave but still went ahead to give BAT the needed boost to get the seat. He could have supported OBI and deprived PDP from getting anything from the state. A win win.

Wike was just showing political expediency.

He knows OBI can't win, that's why he's not supporting him.

He's supporting BAT cos he has a better xhance.

ravensckar:
This your comment has given you away as a political neophyte. No serious political party will change their party chairman a few months to election especially if it was demanded by the aggrieved side. Goodluck Jonathan tried that and we all saw how it ended. To me, Atiku's first mistake was allowing Peter Obi to leave the PDP. He should have charmed him and picked him as his running mate (as against the paper weight Okowa) with the promise of handing over to him after 4 years. There wouldn't have been all these OBIDIENT movement and the election would have been a purely APC VS PDP affair which he would have won.

His second miscalculation stemmed from the fact that he thought the North alone would vote him massively forgetting that several Northern politicians who are eyeing the presidency cannot wait another 16 years. Because if Atiku serves his 8 years, then, willy-nilly, power must return to the South for another 8 years. These Northern politicians with presidential ambitions are the ones queuing behind Tinubu with the expectation that he will only serve one term (due to his age and health) and power will return to the North. The first strategy of politics is playing to the other side's greed and calculating two steps ahead and in that regard, Atiku failed woefully.

In all, I now understand why Tinubu opted for a muslim-muslim ticket. If not, it would have been over for him in the North. He knew very well that the South East & South South have no reason to vote him. Hence, he had to turn to the North for votes. With the way things stand, Tinubu will most likely emerge victorious whilst being followed closely by Atiku. Forget all the noise from those Andrew Liver Salt people (OBIDIENTS) their candidate will come a distant third just as predicted. Politics is a game of strategy not emotion or Social Media noise.

You can change your party chairman if you are PDP looking for power. Go and check out when Audi Ogbeh became PDP chairman. You have to satisfy all powers even though Wike was just trying to save face sha. Muazu was not the reason Jonathan lost. The opposition cooperated, that's why.



I agree with the rest of your submission. Obi will come a distant third.

Svoboda:
Thats the difference between bat and aa. If it was bat, he'd have conceded something to wike that would have made him eternally loyal to BAT.

Exactly. Give and take is what politics is all about.
But Atiku should have known this.

He's not a political neophyte na

Kyase:
obi is the hero of this election

I agree.