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Investment / Re: Is Transcorp Hotel IPO Worth Buying? Honest Opinion Pls by ugodre(m): 9:40am On Oct 08, 2014
I did an analysis on the Transcorp Hotels IPO which you can find here http://web.nairametrics.com/before-you-buy-here-are-ten-things-you-need-to-know-about-transcorp-hotels-plc-ipo/

Some analyst who I featured on my podcast http://web.nairametrics.com/new-season-moneymetro-investment-and-personal-finance-show-download-podcast/ suggest it probably will be better to buy Transcorp shares instead, considering that you also get the benefit in returns that those who prefer Transcorp Hotels also get. I also don't like buying IPO's as a rule of thumb, especially if the funds will be used for capital projects that haven't proven to be very viable, as in the case of the hotels using the money for a hotel that won't be ready till 2017.

Also try to read up the prospectus before buying and do let me know if you require further info. Cheers

1 Like

Investment / Re: Analysis Of Results Of Companies On The Nigerian Stock Exchange by ugodre(m): 6:59pm On Nov 07, 2013
Hi People, sorry I haven't been here in a while. I have reviewed some of the results recently released in the Nigerian Stock Exchange. As usual, I will post a link to each analysis and feel free to click on any stock you are interested in. Remember, some companies are technically sound but fundamentally deficient. Don't throw your money away;

1. Analysis 2013 9 Months: Drop In Gas Supplies Dent Dangote Cement Q3 Results But Profits Rise 43% YoY - http://web.ugometrics.com/analysis-2013-9-month-drop-gas-supplies-dent-dangote-cement-q3-results-profits-rise-43-yoy/

2. Analysis 2013 9 Months: Total Needs To Be More Efficient To Keep Profits Growing - http://web.ugometrics.com/analysis-2013-9-months-total-needs-efficient-keep-profits-growing/

3. Analysis 2013 9 Months: Fidson Plc Needs To Reduce It’s Opex And Start Generating Cash - http://web.ugometrics.com/analysis-2013-9-months-fidson-plc-needs-reduce-opex-start-generating-cash/

4. Earnings Analysis 9 Months: Julius Berger Plc Post Flat Earnings As Growth Stalls - http://web.ugometrics.com/earnings-analysis-9-months-julius-berger-plc-post-flat-earnings-growth-stalls/

5. Earnings Analysis 2013 9 Months: Is Skye Bank’s Poor Q3 Results A Call For Change At The Top? - http://web.ugometrics.com/earnings-analysis-2013-9-months-skye-banks-poor-q3-results-call-chang-top/

6. Earnings Analysis 2013 9months: Diamond Bank Increases Profitability But Loan Write Offs Remain High - http://web.ugometrics.com/earnings-analysis-2013-9months-diamond-bank-increases-profitability-loan-write-offs-remain-high/

7. 2013 9 Months Result: Tantalizers Plc Continues To Serve Losses & Bleed Cash - http://web.ugometrics.com/2013-9-months-result-tantalizers-plc-continues-serve-losses-bleed-cash/

8. Earnings Analysis: Poor Lagos Sales Hurt Dangote Sugar As Revenues Slide Into Negative Territory - http://web.ugometrics.com/earnings-analysis-poor-lagos-sales-hurt-dangote-sugar-revenues-slide-negative-territory/

9. Earnings Analysis 2013 9 Months: In The Wake Of Tepid Revenue Growth Lafarge Wapco Relies On Markup To Boost Operating Profit - http://web.ugometrics.com/earnings-analysis-2013-9-months-wake-tepid-revenue-growth-lafarge-wapco-relies-markup-boost-operating-profit/

10.Earnings Analysis 2013 9 Months: UACN Has Sale Of Property To Its REITS To Thank - http://web.ugometrics.com/earnings-analysis-2013-9-months-uacn-sale-property-reits-thank/

These are the most recent 10 analysis. Cheers and Happy Investing
Investment / Beginners Guide For Investing In FGN Bonds - Updated by ugodre(m): 9:48am On Sep 12, 2013
After writing a few articles about bonds,I thought hadn't properly highlighted the practical aspect of it. Here, I attempt to write a more practical guide to investing in FGN Bonds.


What is a Bond?

A bond is a contract between a lender and a borrower, whereby the borrower agrees to pay the lender interest and repay principal at stipulated periods. It’s similar to an IOU, issued by the Government or a Corporate institution as a way of raising funds for particular projects.

What is FGN Bond?

FGN Bonds are Debt instruments or contracts issued by the Federal Government of Nigeria for an agreed period of time. The investor lends an amount of money to the government and earns interest on the investment until the maturity of the bond when the initial payments will be returned.

What are the Benefits of an FGN Bond?

1. Tax free Income: interest received on FGN Bonds is not subject to withholding tax, company income tax, etc.

2. High and stable returns

3. Free from default risk: repayment is guaranteed at the maturity of the FGN Bond

4. Collateral for borrowing: the FGN Bond can be used as collateral to raise financing.

5. Easily Tradable as it has a unique quality of being quoted on the Nigerian Stock Exchange and can also be traded over the counter (OTC)

Who Can Invest?

Anyone can invest in a FGN bond. They can be individuals or corporate bodies.

When does the Government Issue Bonds?

The Government via the Debt Management Office DMO will first issue a primary auction. Freshly issued bonds usually takes place on the third Wednesday of every month.


Where Can I Buy an FGN?

You can buy from the following PMI’s. Just go to any of their branches and request for a form and guiddiance

Access Bank Plc.

Associated Discount House Ltd.

CitiBank Nigeria Ltd.

Consolidated Discounts Ltd.

Diamond Bank Plc.

Ecobank Nigeria Plc.

Fidelity Bank Plc.

First Bank of Nigeria Plc.

First City Monument Bank Plc.

FSDH Merchant Bank Ltd.

Guaranty Trust Bank Plc.

Kakawa Discount House Ltd

Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc.

Standard Chartered Bank Nigeria Ltd.

Union Bank of Nigeria Plc.

United Bank for Africa Plc.

Zenith Bank Plc.

What are the Bond Maturity Terms?

FGN Bonds have maturity years ranging from 5 years to 10 years to 20 years. The maturity of a bond is the number of years remaining for an already issued bond to mature (due for payment of principal)

How do I invest in FGN Bonds?

You can invest in bond through a Primary Dealer/market maker (PD/MMs). PD/MMs can be banks, investment houses, brokers etc. . You To invest you approach your chosen PD/MMs and fill a form. In the form you fill your Personal Information, bank details for payment of your interest, CSCS nos, the amount you wish to invest, your bid interest rate and then sign. You can invest a minimum of N10,000 and multiples of N1,000 thereafter.

Why do I have to bid interest?

FGN Bonds are sold via an auction system where investors quote interest rates for bonds they wish to buy. As such, bond applications with interest rates that are below the minimum average interest rates otherwise called the marginal rate quoted are accepted and those higher may be rejected. For example, if the average minimum interest rate is 12% then bids below 12% will be accepted. Therefore different investors can have different interest rates provided it falls below the minimum average bid price. Someone can have 10% another 11%, 9%, 10.5% etc.

What is the Marginal Rate for Bonds and How does it work?

Bonds like any other asset is affected by the interest rate pressures. As such despite the coupon rates the FG indicates it will pay bond purchasers and sellers determine the price of a bond based its expected yield. For example, FG Offer for sale FGN Bond with a coupon rate of 10%. As such N100 unit (bond price) of the bond will earn N10 in coupon interest. However, when you are about to buy the marginal rate determines the price you pay. So, if the marginal rate is 13%, you pay N76.9 for a bond with a Face Value of N100 per unit. This is derived at by dividing the fixed coupon N10 by the expected yield 13% (10/0.13) to arrive at N76.9. As such the N10 coupon that will produce a yield of 13% will be based on a price of N76.9. So basically when the yield is higher than the coupon the bond price is sold at a discount and when the premium is higher than the yield the bond price is sold at a premium.

What if I lose my bid is there still a way I can buy?

You can buy or sell bonds at the secondary market. So for those who do not wish to hold to maturity they can just go to the Over The Counter (OTC) market on the floor of the Nigerian Stock Exchange and buy. The secondary market is open from 10am to 2pm Monday to Friday. The minimum investments are 50 million and 100 million per transaction.

How Quickly Can I convert Bonds to Cash?

If you do not wish to hold to maturity, you can convert bonds to cash to selling on the secondary market through your PD/MMS who are mandated to give a two way bid/offer price. Because bonds are typically stated in of 50million and 100million amounts below are generally illiquid in the secondary market and are sold on a best effort basis.

When is the interest paid?

The coupon Interest on FGN Bonds are paid semi annually.

Where will my Interest Payment be paid to?

Your interest payment will be credited to the account that you indicated when you filled the form.

Can my interest payments be rolled over on top of the principal?

No. The coupon is not rolled over automatically. It is credited to your accounts as cash. However, you can then use the interest to purchase the next round of bond sales should you want to enjoy the benefits of compounding interest.

Are the Interests Tax Free?

Yes it is Tax free as you do not pay tax on the interest

What Security do I have?

FGN Bonds are secured by the full faith and credit of the Federal Government of Nigeria. Their default capability is close to zero

What affects the Bond Price?

The Bond price is affected by the yield. The higher the yield the lower the price. For example a Bond Price originally cost N100 at 10% coupon rate (N10 interest). The price drops to N90 due to forces of demand and supply. The yield is therefore the N10 divided by the N90 0r 11.1% price in the hand of a new purchaser.

What other Factors affect Bond Price?

a. The credit status of the issuer
b. The forces of demand & supply of such securities
c. The inflation and interest rate movements
d. Activities and performances of the equities market.



Note: In addition to practical knowledge, information from DMO and Zenith Bank website was used in writing this article

http://web.ugometrics.com

5 Likes

Investment / Re: Analysis Of Results Of Companies On The Nigerian Stock Exchange by ugodre(m): 4:07pm On Aug 11, 2013
Ok!! I will add every one who have indicated interest in being on my mailing list. Check your email box for passwords and user names. Pls not that you can change the password but may not be able to change the user names. Cheers

1 Like

Investment / Re: Analysis Of Results Of Companies On The Nigerian Stock Exchange by ugodre(m): 12:30pm On Aug 10, 2013
jposuagwu: I have registered since yesterday but no log in password has been sent to me.

A password should have been sent to you email address. The one you used to register. If you didn't get it try clicking on forgot password. Let me know if you are successful. Cheers
Investment / Re: Analysis Of Results Of Companies On The Nigerian Stock Exchange by ugodre(m): 1:32pm On Aug 03, 2013
I have analysed a few more results in my blog. Unfortunately I won't be able to post each and every one of them here due to time. However, here are the links for those who are interested;

All Reviews==>> [url][/url]http://web.ugometrics.com/category/equities-stocks-results-earning-results-earning-report/

CCNN http://web.ugometrics.com/earnings-analysis-h1-2013-ccnn-rides-on-efficiency-to-post-n1-2billion-pbt/

Julius Berger http://web.ugometrics.com/earnings-analysis-2013-h1-julius-berger-plc-post-n5-2billion-pbt-obtains-loan-from-hsbc-london/

WAPCO http://web.ugometrics.com/earnings-analysis-wapco-2013-h1-results-shows-moderate-increase-in-pbt-of-13-to-n13-8billion/

Courteville http://web.ugometrics.com/earnings-analysis-courteville-plc-post-higher-2013h1-pre-tax-profits-as-efficiency-increases/

Expect that of UBA, FCMB, Afromedia, Tantalizers, 7up, Diamond Bank, Mobil, GSK, Presco, Vitafoam as I will be reviewing them all through this weekend.

For those on my mailing list...expect to be the first to receive updates soon.

Cheers and have a great weekend everyone.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ugodre(m): 12:42pm On Aug 01, 2013
Something seem amiss with their EPS calc. Or is it me??

9free: Diamond Bank don share all the money to themselves ooohhhh.....
We the shareholders go continue to the chop Garri while these guys go dey buy private Jets.
We dey watch. One day go be one day....
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ugodre(m): 12:53pm On Jul 22, 2013
I'm looking to do an updated review of OANDO on BSH but having problems with the EPS calculation. Anyone has any clear idea what the Diluted EPS for this stock is?? Its a bit confusing to me and I think the EPS stated in their Q1 2013 maybe misleading. It does not factor in the latest issue. The results reports an EPS of 106kobo which doesn't just add up. What are you thoughts?
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ugodre(m): 11:26pm On Jul 21, 2013
Born 2be Rich:


My main man ugodre, nice to have you here on this forum( although u initially started with us on this forum)...hope u will honour my invite to the stockmarketnigeria.com forum too...enjoy

I have joined already bro. tnx
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ugodre(m): 7:55pm On Jul 19, 2013
By the way.... I hope to be more active in this forum now that I have decided to publish one of my Portfolios. For the Value Investors out there looking for Stocks with good yields...we'd probably have some fun together. That's not to mean our Growth Stock brothers are not fun...their short term insights is probably the best barometer for knowing when to seek a bargain. Cheers

3 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ugodre(m): 7:51pm On Jul 19, 2013
Their margins are thin and they carry a lot of debt but now is probably the best time to buy Oando if you are looking to hold for the medium term. The current share price already gives you an earnings yield of 34%!!! Hard to beat that. Problem however is that I do not see them holding the debts far too long so EPS may dilute going forward. So, to answer your question directly...If it were me I'd be buying. Cheers
Josh121: Can one still buy oando now for long term. of 1-3years

1 Like

Investment / Re: Analysis Of Results Of Companies On The Nigerian Stock Exchange by ugodre(m): 7:45pm On Jul 19, 2013
Nigerian Breweries Still Searching For Bottom Line Growth: Post N29.6billion Pre-Tax Profits For H1 2013

Nigerian Breweries (NB:NL) released its 2013 H1 results with revenues rising 7.4% to N133billion as at June 30 2013 (H1 2012: N124.6b). Gross Profit during the year also rose 7.6% to N66.3billion during the period as the company struggled to deal with rising raw material cost. Core operating profit for the period will thus remain flat at N31.6billion growing by just 0.6% over the prior year. Pre-tax profits at the end if the period under review was N29.6billion and just 3.8% higher than the N28.5 billion posted same period last year.

Key Highlights

-Revenue Growth managed to keep up with GDP growth rate at just 7.4%

-Margins struggled for growth as operating cost continued to eat up the little revenue growth they reported.

-Gross Profit margin for example was 49.6% this period no major difference from the 49.5% growth posted same period last year

-S,G & A grew double figures (15%) to N34.7billion signifying an inability to stem rising operating cost. This is the third straight reporting period that has seen rising operating expenses (18% YoY FY 2012, 9% YoY Q1 2013 and now 15% YoY H12013).

-Without the contribution of N1.4billion in other income, which rose 62% YoY, then pre-tax profits may have been lower in comparative terms to H1 2012.

-No significant reduction in Debts as the company maintained about the same debt to equity structure.

-Return on Equity of 12.7% is still very healthy and on course to at least match last years results. As it stands it is above inflation rate.

-NBL is still a very profitable entity and with a strong Revenue Reserve of N93.4billion. However, it still relies on loans and current liabilities to augment working capital requirements.

-It owes current back taxes of about 27.8billion and If required to be paid may be a financial strain on operations. Working capital is currently negative at a whopping N39.8billion
Investment in Capex and capacity expansion has now topped N50billion in the last 18months

-NBL was trading at N177.4 at blog time and represents 33.8x TTM earnings per share.

-Anyone who buys at this price would currently be carrying an earnings yield of about 3%. Going by this result, things are not about to change anytime soon. Share price has increased 55% in the last one year and just 20% in value year to date (Jan - July)

Investment / Re: Analysis Of Results Of Companies On The Nigerian Stock Exchange by ugodre(m): 7:41pm On Jul 19, 2013
H1 2013 Results:Sterling Bank Post Strong Earnings Growth as Pre-Tax Profits Rose 93% To N6.7billion

Sterling Bank released its 2013 H1 results with Gross Earnings rising 28% to N41.8billion. Net Interest income rose 26.8% to N15.1billion in the period under review compared to N11.9billion in Q1 2012. Pre-tax profits rose 93% to N6.2billion (2012 H1: N3.2billion). Earnings per share will therefore rise 76.5% to 35kobo compared to 20kobo same period last year.

Key Highlights

-Loans and advances rose 7% to N272. 7billion compared to N230billion in at the end of 2012. The bank has only added N42billion to its Loan book.

-Net Interest Income rose 26.8% during the period to N15billion on the back of an increase in loans and advances. Interest margin will also fare better than it did the same period last year rising 48.8%

-Operating expenses rose sharply to N18.5billion representing an increase of 24%. It in fact added about N10billion in operating expenses between April and June 2013
However, this did not impact heavily on Cost to Income ratio as it dropped to 71% from 82%. The reason for this is the 70% rise in other operating income. Income from fees, commissions and other sources added a huge N10.7billion to Net Operating Income which help negate the impact of high operating cost.

-Deposits also grew 21% in the last six months which is a strong improvement from 18% growth at the end of 2012

-Sterling Bank suffered more loan losses during the period, writing off N1.1billion at this time of the year. The bank did not have significant loan losses last year but has now incurred losses in two consecutive quarters. It wrote of over N700million between April and June alone.

-Return on Average Equity at the end of the period was 12%

-The banks currents Earnings Per share is just 9kobo lower than the 44kobo posted in the whole of 2012

-Earnings per share is likely to be much lower at the end of Q3 as the dilution brought about by the recent rights issue begin to impact on the books of the company.

-Sterling Bank share price rose 0.38% to N2.67 today representing an earnings yield on TTM EPS of 16.3%. The share price is currently trading at 90% of Book Value per share.

Investment / Re: Analysis Of Results Of Companies On The Nigerian Stock Exchange by ugodre(m): 7:36pm On Jul 19, 2013
Unilever Increase Debts By N4billion But Post N3.9billion Pre-Tax Profits For H1 2013

Unilever Nigeria Plc released its H1 2013 results posting a 10.2% rise in revenue to N29.6billion (2012 H1: N26.9billion). Gross profit also rose 11.2% to N10.8billion despite a surge in cost of sales in the period under review. Operating Expenses rose 13% to N6.5billion compared to N5.7billion same period in 2012. Despite increase in operating expenses, Operating profit rose 8.5% YoY to N4.3billion. Pre-tax profits also rose 3.8% to N3.9billion in June 2013. Earnings per share will however remain flat at 72kobo per share following a more conservative provision for income taxes.

Key Highlights

- Revenue Growth was actually better using QoQ comparisons. The company generated N15.4billion this quarter compared N14.2billion generated in Q1 2013. QoQ Growth was therefore 8% compared to same period in 2012 which dropped 9%.

-Their two core business segments Food Products & Home and Personal Care posted 10% and 11% year on year growth, each adding 12.6 and N17billion to 2013 Half Year revenue respectively.

-Unilever continued its investment in capacity expansion spending another N2billion 6 months to date and an extra N1billion from March 2013. Funding for capacity expansion surprisingly came from new loans during the period. Investment in the last one year has now topped N5billion.

-Debt to Equity rose sharply to 1.16 as the company increased its overdrafts facilities and short term loans by a whopping N4billion. The company did not reveal details of the loans in the report released to the NSE.

-Interest cost increased 60% to N497billion compared to the same period last year. Interest payment as a percentage of Operating profit has been on a steady increase in the last 6 quarters. It has now grown from N180million in the whole of 2011 to about N380million in the first half of 2013 alone. This is still 9% of operating profit and I do not see it rising above 14% at the end of the year after interest from newly acquired loans start to kick in.

-Unilever still generated Ebita cash flows of around N9billion annually (2012) which to an extent can provide buffer for debt repayments. However, I expect the company to refinance their overdraft by converting them into longer term facilities.

-The company also faces a working capital shortfall of about N10billion which it has basically been financing from trade creditors

-With a return on equity of about 31% this half year, shareholders need to worry of about the impact of taking on debts on their value. Unilever also post a comfortable return on asset of of over 26% last year, which is set to go even higher providing extra cover for high interest rates. Shareholders have also cashed in over N10billion in dividend payments in the last one year alone even though it amount to a below market dividend yield of just 2.2% (TTM)

-Unilever has a share price of N62 and a price earnings ratio of 42x. Intending investors will have to hope the obvious overprice value of the stock will persist otherwise they only stand to get a yield of just 2.3%.

-The risk of a value impairment on the share price makes a purchase option all the more precarious

Investment / Re: Analysis Of Results Of Companies On The Nigerian Stock Exchange by ugodre(m): 8:43am On Jul 03, 2013
Evans Medical Rides On Tax Credit To Post N285million PAT For 2012 FY

Evans Medical Plc released its 2012 FY results with revenues rising 6.4% to N4.8billion (2011:N4.5billion). Gross profit rose 20% to N2.6billion during the year on the back of a 6% reduction in cost of sales. However, operating expenses will thread higher during the year to N1.9billion (2011: N1.6billion) or 75% of Gross Profit. The company's finance cost also rose 28% to N503million compared to N393million posted in 2011.

Evans Medical ended the year with a profit after tax of N285million up 64% from the N174million posted the year before.

Key Highlights

-Earnings per share rose 95% to 41kobo during the period

-The increase in profit after tax was mainly as a result of a tax credit of N87million during the year. Otherwise 2012 actually had a lesser pre-tax profit of N198million as against N245million in 2011

-Debt to Equity ratio is high at 1:1. This pits interest at 77% of Operating Profit during the period. This puts the company under immense cash constraints as it tries to repay its loans.
-In 2012, N541million was spent in cash to repay a N867million debt obligation. The company had to basically refinance about N326million of the remaining debt as can be seen from their cash flow statement.

-Return on equity was 12.6%, only GSK posted a higher ROE at 18%.

-I assigned a black ink to the results because it was able to post higher organic profit (operating profit) of N650million (2011: N550million)

Investment / Re: Analysis Of Results Of Companies On The Nigerian Stock Exchange by ugodre(m): 8:39am On Jul 03, 2013
Oando Plc Post 530% Rise In PAT To N10.7billion But Debt Also Rose 160% to N288billion!!

Oando Plc released its 2012 Audited Results with revenues increasing 17.8% to N673.1billion (2011: N571.3billion). Gross profit also increased 24% to N81.6billion during the period as cost of sales tapered down relative to revenues during the period. Operating profit for the period was N34.1billion a 76% increase from the N19.3billion posted a year before. Pre-tax profits also rose 35.3% to N17.5billion as a N11billion reduction in operating expenses set of the extra N10billion in interest expense during the period.

Profit after tax for the period increased over five folds to N10.7billion for the period ended December 2012.

Key Highlights

-Despite an N85billion rise in cost of sale during the period, N673billion derived in revenue was high enough to offset the impact. Gross profit margin therefore increased to 12.1%

-The company slashed an astonishing N10.5billion in operating expenses during the period. The largest drop was in administrative expenses which dropped from N52billion to N42billion. Selling and marketing costs dropped N7.8billion to N7.55billion as well.

-Finance cost however rose 160% to N16.5billion as the company added an extra N82billion in loans during the period. The extra increase in loans obtained was used in funding new investments such as the acquisition of oil blocks and expansion into power projects

-The results shows a debt to equity ratio of about 2.7x

-Oando also just concluded a rights issue where it raised about N54.5billion in new equity.

-The additional equity raised will see the debt to equity ratio decline to 1.8x which is much better than the current ratios. I see the company exploring new sources of equity capital to further reduce their debts. to at least 100-80% of Equity.

-I won't be surprised to hear the company announce moves to sell part of their equity in oil blocks and energy investments to foreign interest in the near future as part of its alternative sources of debt free capital

-The company has a healthy retained earnings of N37.1billion which I believe is just about enough to ensure dividend payments for at least one financial year.

-Oando share price has taken a hit in the last one month, dropping 16% to N13.05 (at the time I wrote this blog) from N15.15. It has returned a negative 9% in the last year also compared to most stocks that have seen over 100% return on share price appreciations.

-Oando currently trades at 2.7x in P.E and the share prices is 87% of its book value per share

Investment / Re: Analysis Of Results Of Companies On The Nigerian Stock Exchange by ugodre(m): 8:36am On Jul 03, 2013
Red Flag: KFC Nigeria Co Owners, Chellarams Plc, Post N23.3billion in Revenue But N90m In PAT For FY Ended March 2013


Chellarams Plc released its Full Year to March 2013 results with revenues dropping 6.8% to N23.3billion (2012: N25billion). Gross Profit however increased slightly by 0.4% to N3.03billion. Operating profit dropped 5.8% to N585million compared to N621million in 2012. Pre-tax profits also dropped significantly to N241million (2012: N379million). Profit after tax at the end of the period was N90million a 64% drop from N251million posted in 2012. Earnings per share for the reporting period was 15.6kobo compared to 34.7kobo in 2012.

Key Highlights

-The revenue drop from N25billion to N23.3billion is the company's first in over 6 years

-Operating cost has been on a steady increase since 2010. It sliced off 80.7% off Gross Profit during the period (2012: 79.4%). The company's annual report is hard to come by which would have helped explained the reason for its high operating cost.

-Finance cost reduced 2.6% to N471million despite a lower debt to equity ratio in the period under review compared to the prior period. Total debt this period was about N6.4billion -with N4.7billion of these currently due. Based on the company's operating profit it is nearly impossible to meet up with fallen due obligations.

-Return on equity is apparently low churning out 2.4% in the period far below Industry Average.

-The company however has N1.5billion in retained earnings which ensures dividend payout provided it continues to remain profitable

-Chellarams continues to invest in new product lines as well as add new subsidiaries to its group. In the year under review it spent N892million in net investments in addition to the N627million it spent in the prior year. It launched a new Malt drink earlier in the year a move that I do not see reaping profits in the short term considering the competitiveness of the beverage industry. In 2012, it stopped its bicycle manufacturing division blaming the lack lustre effort of the FG in protecting local industries from cheap imports.

-Chellarams also has interest in KFC Nigeria owners, Devyani International Nigeria Limited. It appears the partnership hasn't helped stop the haemorrhaging profit decline in the company.
-KFC as at the time of this post was trading at N4.89 per share with a P.E of 15.2x. It share price if also 1.1x its book value per share.

Chellarams results for the year ended March 2013 is rated a RED INK

Investment / Re: Analysis Of Results Of Companies On The Nigerian Stock Exchange by ugodre(m): 4:29pm On Jun 24, 2013
miftpulse: Oga ugodre, good work, some of us are following you on twitter

Thanks a lot.
Investment / Re: Analysis Of Results Of Companies On The Nigerian Stock Exchange by ugodre(m): 4:11pm On Jun 23, 2013
mercylicious: Hallo Ugodre,
I visited ur website late last night/ early this morning and saw a message, acnt suspended. The message is still on today. What is the issue?

very sorry about that. I am doing a site upgrade to make the site more reliable. It will be ready tomorrow hopefully
Investment / Re: Analysis Of Results Of Companies On The Nigerian Stock Exchange by ugodre(m): 5:22pm On Jun 08, 2013
big pastor:
Pls Ugodre, Kindly add my e-mail add to your subscription list of latest analysis
bigpastor232@gmail.com
Thanks

ok I will
Investment / Re: Analysis Of Results Of Companies On The Nigerian Stock Exchange by ugodre(m): 2:33pm On May 10, 2013
UBA PLC IS BACK TO PROFITABILITY - POST IMPRESSIVE N51.4BILLION PAT!!

UBA Plc finally released its 2012 audited accounts with profits after tax of N51.4billion. This ensures the bank is back to profitability after a whopping loss of N26.6billion a year earlier. The bank's net interest income rose 34% to N91billion and income from commission and fees (including other operating income) rose 21% to N61.4billion. Total operating income also rose 94% toN154.6billion.

Key Highlights

The bank is yet to release its annual report so details about the earnings are limited

However, Net Interest margin remained flat at 61% and was below the above 70% posted by the likes of Zenith First Bank and UBA

UBA's Net Interest income is the 6th largest in the banking industry this year.

The N61billion made in commission and fees is one of the highest in the industry

The banks loan losses reduced drastically by 87% to N4.5billion. It was N37billion a year last year. It is also less industry average of N14billion

The banks operating expenses remained flat during the year boosting efficiency in operating profits

The Bank Generated N256.2billion in cash from operations during the period

The banks deposits rose 21% to N1.7trillion and only Zenith Bank, First Bank and ETI is higher

Return on Equity was an impressive 30% and to the peak of this result. Only GTB did better amongst its peers at the top with 33%.

The bank also paid minimal tax equal to 1% of pre-tax profits. That is quite surprising considering it is a Holdco. I believe they must have enjoyed some relief from losses carried forward

The banks retained earnings is now N50billion a 212% rise from 2011.

Earnings per share was N1.77

Share price rose 2% to N7.64 at the time I wrote this blog. The share price is currently 4.32x its earnings (4.32x P.E ratio)



UBA Plc 2012 Audited Accounts was posted on the website of the NSE
Investment / Nigerian Stock Exchange Beginner's Guide by ugodre(m): 6:04pm On May 08, 2013
How To Invest In Nigerian Stock Exchange

I got a call from my friend Nneka asking me how to invest in stock exchange and what it is all about. I tried explaining on the phone and then figured it was better to just blog about it for her and for so many other people out there who need to know.

Nneka: What is a stock?

Ugometrics: A stock is a unit of a share of a company that is traded on the floor of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). It is also often referred to as a share.

Nneka: Where do stocks come from?

Ugometrics: Every company has shares which the owners lay claim to. When you go to register a company at the Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC) you typically say your authorized share capital is N1m made up of 1m ordinary shares of N1 each. This means your initial capital at the start of your company is N1million represented by those shares. Whilst the value of your capital may increase over time, your shares remain the same till you decide to increase it again and register same with the CAC. When the shares are listed on the floor of the NSE they are tradable as stocks meaning people can buy or sell them.

Nneka: So what is the NSE and what companies trade their shares on it?

Ugometrics: The NSE is a market for buyers and sellers of stocks (shares) to transact officially. In Nigeria, like in most exchanges all over the world, a company needs to fulfill certain laid out criteria to be able to have its shares traded on the NSE. Some of the criteria are that the company must be a public company and must have more than 50 shareholders (owners). Whenever a company decided to sell shares for the first time on the NSE, they perform what is called an Initial Public Offering (IPO). Subsequent offering of shares by the company can come as a Public Offer (PO) or a Rights Issue. I will come to these later

Nneka: Are these the only ways people can buy shares on the NSE?

Ugometrics: As mentioned, the NSE is a market place for people to buy and sell shares. Therefore, those who buy shares during an IPO or during a PO can also sell those shares to willing buyers whenever they want. As such, once a company's shares are listed on the NSE, their outstanding shares can be bought or sold provided there is a willing seller and a willing buyer with or without a PO . Stocks are traded every working day of the week.

Nneka: Can I buy any number of shares I want?

Ugometrics: Just like in any market, the stock market is also limited to the forces of demand and supply. For example, whilst a company may have 10million shares outstanding (available on the stock exchange) only a portion of it may be offered for sale by its owners. Therefore if only 5million of those shares are regularly traded then the maximum you and any other willing buyer can buy is 5million.

Nneka: Is that why I hear a lot about banking stocks?

Ugometrics: Exactly! An average bank has billions of outstanding shares (stocks) that are traded regularly on the NSE. Therefore people can buy and sell them more frequently unlike a small firm that probably has just millions.

Nneka: Before you forget, what are right issues and public offer?

Ugometrics - Public offers are made after a company must have debuted on the floor of the NSE with an initial public offer. Companies make public offers when they see the need to source for money other than or in addition to debt to finance new projects, purchase fixed assets or simply expand the business. It could also be to repay debt or invest in research and technology. When a company engages in a pubic offer they could offer new shares by increasing the share capital (thus creating new shares) to the public or offer those shares to existing shareholders only. Offering those shares to the existing shareholders only is called a Rights Issue. When they offer a rights of those shares to existing shareholders only, it means they mostly do so in the same proportion to what they already have. For example they could offer a right issue as 2 for every 5 owned. Meaning of you had 1000 shares you are offered an additional 400 shares. That way if all the rights issues are taken by the owners of the companies their shares increase in proportion to what they originally have. However, this hardly happens as some may not be willing to take up their rights. This allows others to take it up and increase their percentage ownership. Rights issues can also be done in conjunction with a fresh issue to the public.

Nneka: So, can I just go to the stock market to buy shares on my own?

Ugometrics: Not exactly. You can only buy shares through a stockbroker who is registered to a stockbroking firm. Therefore whenever you decide to buy shares look for a decent stockbroking firm and open an account with them. Some have a minimum amount of money that can be used to open an account. After opening an account you can then instruct them to buy and sell shares on your behalf from time to time. They also give you statements of your stocks (portfolio) periodically so you know where you stand. In exchange for these services you pay them fees.

Nneka: Fees Ke? How much are their fees?

Ugometrics: Fees paid to stockbrokers are uniform and are approved by the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) the regulatory authority for activities on the stock market. Fees are also paid to the NSE, SEC and being a transaction, VAT is also paid. Here is a table of the fees

Buying





Selling



Nneka: Now, how do I start buying shares?

Ugometrics: Before you start buying shares you have to identify companies and the share price that they are currently being sold for

Nneka: What is a share price?

Ugometrics: A share price is the price that a stock is currently sold for on the floor of the NSE

Nneka: So are shares worth N1 cheaper than those worth N100?

Ugometrics: Not exactly, in fact not at all. Shares are not measured that way. A unit share price is actually determined by dividing its market value by the number of shares outstanding. For example, a company is that has a 10million outstanding shares and a market value or capitalization of N100m will have a share price of N10. Similarly, another company that has the same market value of N100m but with outstanding shares of 20million will thus have a share price of N5. So you see, even though one goes for N10 and the other N5 they all have the same market value. The only difference being that they have different number of shares and as such doesn't mean one is cheaper than the other.

Nneka: So you mean the number of outstanding shares have nothing to do with the share price going up or down?

Ugometrics: Not directly. Reason is that companies that have higher quantity of outstanding shares are considered very liquid and thus do not get bogged down by the artificial premium (or value) scarcity causes. Scarcity like you know thus affect the price of things but does not necessarily mean they are cheap or expensive or even worth the price

Nneka: Gosh, so how do I know if a share is worth the price or cheap or expensive?

Ugometrics: Now that is the technical part and that is why you have a stockbroker. Stockbrokers are there to advice you on which stock to buy or sell or hold

Nneka: What is buy, sell or hold biko?

Ugometrics: "Buy" is when a stockbroker advices that you buy the stock because they believe the share price will appreciate in value. "Sell"means that the company is expected to perform badly in the soon to be declared results as such their share price may depreciate in value making you loose money. "Sell" could also mean that they think the stock has reached its peak in terms of valuation and thus the price may start to crash due to owners of the stock hoping to sell and earn some profit. Hold means that the Stockbrokers are advising that do not sell if you own it the stock. They say this because they expect the stock to rise soon or expect some news that will determine whether they should buy or sell.

Nneka: Ok! What if I don't wan to rely on a stockbroker for advise or more like I just want to be able to decide on my own whether a stock is cheap or expensive or bad?

Ugometrics: Well, that depends on luck, a good eye for knowing good stocks and your investment horizon. Since the value of stock mostly depends on how the company performed in the past, currently performing and will perform in the future, it is important to identify companies that have potentials to do very well in the three performance metrics I mentioned. Therefore you must know how to analyze company financial statements. You can also rely on technical analysis which is somewhat basically making investment decisions based on history, trends and market information. For example, some people decide on what stock to buy by analyzing the past history of the stock in terms of its price going up and down at various times. Technical analysis also involves using charts and graphs to estimate the value of a stock. No need to bother you with all this. Just follow this link

Nneka: OK...I have heard of P.E ratios and Earnings per share, pls what are they?

Ugometrics: Earnings per share basically relates to the profit a company makes per every unit of shares held. Using the example above, assuming the company with 20m ordinary shares has made a profit after tax of N10million. Its earnings per share will therefore be 50kobo (N0.5). Since its market price was N5 the Price Earnings Ratio (P.E ratio) is therefore N5 divided by 50kobo which is 10x. This means that those who pay N5 to own the shares are basically paying for a premium equal to 10x (times) the earnings per share of the company.

Nneka: Isn't that too high?

Ugometrics: Well, you rarely get a good stock that has a P.E ratio that is less than 5. Shares with single digit P.E ratios are either undervalued or have company fundamentals that suggest the company is not doing well. In addition the premium you pay to own a stock factors in the company fundamentals, growth potentials, brand strength, competitiveness of the business, taxation, debt amongst others.

Nneka: What if I do not want to sell a stock after I buy it. Or I don't want to sell anytime soon?

Ugometrics: Then you must like long term investing. That off course is very plausible and a good way to invest. That is what makes Warren Buffet very successful and one of the richest men in the world. Long term investing mostly relies on fundamentals rather than technical analysis. They are called Value investors. Value investors do not necessarily rely on price movement since the performance of the company is more important. Since they invest for the long time, metrics like the financials of the company over the past 5 years and above, their competitiveness, the industry, management etc are the basis upon which they invest. In exchange for this they get compensated by dividends and long term consistent growth on their share price. Because you are holding on for the long term, it is important to buy very well run companies with good potentials at a cheap often called (intrinsic value) price.

Nneka: Dividends. How much do they pay?

Ugometrics: Companies have different dividend policies. However, what you should concern yourself about is about much dividend they pay per share relative to the market price per share of the company. That is what is called dividend yield. Using our example above, the company decided to pay out 20kobo out of the earnings per share of 50kobo as dividend. Based on the share price of N5, the dividend yield is therefore 4%, which N0.5/N5. Therefore for a long term investor, it means every Naira of your investments returns just 5% assuming you decide to not to sell the stock. However, stocks prices do not necessarily remain the same and as such the you will have to add the value appreciation as a return even though it hasn't been cashed.

Nneka: Are there other sources other than dividends and selling shares?

Ugometrics: There is also bonus issue which companies also give to its shareholders. Bonus issue basically is when the company agrees to give out additional shares to it shareholders for free. I use the word free because you do not need to pay for them from your pocket. Shareholders can then sell those shares on the floor of the NSE should they want to and pocket the value whilst still maintaining the number of shares they had before the bonus issue. Some don't even sell the shares preferring to just keep them and add to their portfolio.

Nneka: Really?? So is that why people are so excited whenever bonus shares are announced?

Ugometrics: Yes! Often times, prior to when the bonus shares are issued, the share price increases because everyone wants to buy it. It also increases because there is a fixed date whereby the register of shareholders are closed also referred to as a marked down date. When a stock is marked down say May 15th, it means only those who own the share prior to May 15 will receive the bonus shares

Nneka: Does this Bonus share favour the company at all?

Ugometrics: Well, it sort of does. Sometimes companies do not want to pay out dividends as cash opting to use the cash to invest back into the business. Therefore, to ensure the shareholders are able to cash in on some value returns they just issue them bonus shares in proportion to what they already own. Bonus shares can be one for every two held, one for one, two for five etc. Some companies also pay dividends and bonus shares at the same time

Nneka: Thanks for the tutorial and hope I can ask more questions should the need arise

Ugometrics: Yes you can. It was a pleasure explaining this to you.

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Investment / Re: Analysis Of Results Of Companies On The Nigerian Stock Exchange by ugodre(m): 10:09am On May 06, 2013
FBN HOLDINGS PLC 2012 EARNINGS REVEAL TRIPPLE RISE IN PAT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BEAT ITS PEERS


FBN Holdings Plc (owners of First Bank) released a double dose of earnings report last week (29/4/2013-3/5/2013) which included its 2012 audited accounts and the first quarter 2013 unaudited reports

2012 Audited Accounts

FBN Holdings posted Gross Earnings of N360billion a 31% rise when compared to 2011 (N273.8billion). Net Interest Income also rose 27.8% to N225billion just as income from commission and fees topped N62billion in the period under review. The bank posted a 150% operational profit of N93billion (2011: N37billion). Profit after tax at the end of the period was N75.6billion an over 306% increase from the prior year. Earnings per share rose from 60kobo t0 N2.33.

Highlights

-Net Interest Income Margin dropped from 82% (2011) to 78% this year. Most banks in Nigeria had lower Interest margins and only Diamond Bank did better than First bank at 80%.

-The Group (well, Bank) recorded N12.3billion in loan losses (2011: N38billion) making it N50billion in two years already. In addition in the first quarter of 2013 they recorded about N1.48billion in loan losses. When you consider that GT Bank recorded about N800m in loan losses for the whole of 2012 you realize how precarious their risk assets are.

-The Group's operating expenses of N192billion is only next to ETI's N200billion and chalked of 68% of Operating Income or 53% of Gross Earnings (same with 2011). Too high and a common problem with Holdco's as too many non-productive subsidiaries increase expenses.

-Average tax rate came at about 18.3% slicing off N17billion of of Pre-Tax profits. Tax and loan losses contributed to its below peer PAT of N75billion. For example, whilst Zenith's loan impairment as a percentage of Net Interest Income was 5.5% its tax rate was 1.4%. GTB loan impairment as a percentage of Net Interest Income was 0.6% its tax rate was 15.9%. First Bank was 5.5% in loan impairment as a percentage of Net Interest Income and 18.3% in tax rate.

Return on Average Equity was 18% for the bank, higher than inflation and slightly better than FGN bond rates. Unfortunately, it fell below the likes of GTB, Zenith, Access percentage of 34%, 23.5% and 20% respectively.

- Operating profit for the first quarter of 2013 increased 26% to N31billion (pre-tax profits N30.4billion) an impressive return and currently higher than its peers did so far.

-FBN Holding is a holding company for the bank and its other subsidiaries. However, the Bank is the highest contributor to bottom line.

-The Bank as at the end of the first quarter of this year, had about N2.7tr in deposits and N1.9tr in net loans. During the past year, it grew loans and advances by 13% but is yet to add to that in the current year.

-The company's share price dropped 3% to N18.65 on announcement of the result but has since climbed back to N19.55 currently representing a 8.4x multiple on trailing twelve months earnings. Price to book ratio is 1.4x indicating the sluggish rise in market valuation.


FBN Holdings posted its 2012 Audited Accounts on the website of the NSE

Investment / Re: Analysis Of Results Of Companies On The Nigerian Stock Exchange by ugodre(m): 10:04am On May 06, 2013
wogegbo: Hi Ugodre,

Pls I am highly impressed by sound analysis of results of coys on the nigerian stock market. Thus sincerely wish you add me to email list for me receive both old and new analysis of coy results henceforth. My email address is wogegbo@yahoo.com. Thanks.

Ok I will..you can also track my latest post on ugometrics.com . Cheers
Investment / Re: Analysis Of Results Of Companies On The Nigerian Stock Exchange by ugodre(m): 10:04pm On Apr 30, 2013
feelamong: You forgot to include the fact that this stock GSK at a time dropped to N21 and only rose to N43 when the news filtered out that its parent body wanted to increase its stake to 70% or there about!

Now that the parent body is back, i expect them to increase capacity and also maybe acquire one or two small pharm coys in the medium to long term! Just throw in the fact that Nigeria is soon to be made the Hub for vaccine production in the whole of west Africa and maybe beyond!

True that...! Do you think then that the price is cheap?
Investment / Re: Analysis Of Results Of Companies On The Nigerian Stock Exchange by ugodre(m): 4:09pm On Apr 30, 2013
GSK PLC POST N2.8BILLION PAT - BUY? BUY!!

GSK Plc, the leading pharmaceutical company has released its 2012 Audited accounts with revenues jumping 17.6% year on year to N25.3billion (2011: N21.5billion). Operating profit at the end of the period was 15% higher at N3.9billion on the back of income from other sources as operating expenses sliced over half of gross profit. GSK at the end of the period posted a pre-tax profit of N4.1billion and post tax profit of N2.8billion.

Earnings per share at the end of the period improved to N2.95 from N2.4 during the year. Return on Average Equity at the end of the period was 28.7%, a return very few stocks on the NSE will beat. GSK traded for N49 today (30/4/2013) and has risen 152% in the last one year. The current share price is a 17X multiple on his earnings.

GSK is currently debt free and still has a better competitive advantage to its competitors. Inventory turnover has increased from 2.76 last year to 3.3 this year, showing the company is shipping drugs better that it did last year.

GSK may not look cheap but its price is just right for a buy.

Investment / Re: Analysis Of Results Of Companies On The Nigerian Stock Exchange by ugodre(m): 2:37pm On Apr 30, 2013
Here was my review on GSK after their 9months results some months back. Their 2012 full year result is out. I will be posting that shortly

The Nigerian Pharmaceutical Industry is one which is badly in need of the right pill required to cure the burden of low profit margins and huge debts associated with their financials. Its a plague that has contaminated almost every quoted company in the industry save for GSK. The Pharmaceutical Giant in the first 9 months of the year increased revenue by 18% year on year to N18.7b. Operating profit also increased marginally by 14% year on year to N2.7b representing a margin of 15%. Pre tax profits also rose 14% to N2.7b in the first 9 months of this year. Return on Equity 20% and N1.97 (12% increase) in the first 9 months of the year.

These are results when compared to industry averages always appear as a stand out. But that’s like thinking protection is a cure to an STD. GSK’s margins have been down year to date with profit margin dropping 5%. At 10.1% profit margin it is unlikely the company will match the 15% it was able to achieve last year even though taxes have a way of skewing these figures. One way to know though is to look at operational profit margin. It has dropped more than 3% in the past year indicating that the plague may well be looking for its next victim.

;

Thats not to say the company can’t shake this common threat away. It’s still very very low on debt and generates of N3.2b in operational cash flow (that is down as well) and closed the period with a cash pile up of N5b. That is also after spending N1b on investments. Investors like to reward stand outs, justifying why its trading at its highs of N43! A price that is 22x its current earnings per share (eps) and 24.8x its trailing eps. It was just 16X about a year ago. Is it pricey? Sure it is but would you rather settle for a sick pod?

Investment / Re: Analysis Of Results Of Companies On The Nigerian Stock Exchange by ugodre(m): 11:25am On Apr 30, 2013
MacLovington: Union Bank analysis has remained somehow elusive......good job though.

Just reviewed Union Bank. What's your opinion?
Investment / Re: Analysis Of Results Of Companies On The Nigerian Stock Exchange by ugodre(m): 11:21am On Apr 30, 2013
UNION BANK PLC IS BACK TO PROFITABILITY BUT.....

If I was told to predict Union Bank's results at the end of the year ended December 2012, I would have lost out horribly. To explain what I mean, at my review of Union Bank's Half year result for 2012, the bank's net interest income was N44billion, 14% less than 2011. At the end of 2012 Interest Income had jumped to N93billion....adding an extra 49billion in the last six months of 2012.

On the result

On the back of its improved Gross Earnings, Union Bank is back to profitability posting a pre-tax profit of N9billion (EPS of 61kobo) at the end of the year following the over N107billion loss it posted in 2011. The first step on the long walk to getting back to profitability and creating shareholder value is well on track. Their Gross Earnings puts them ahead of Stanbic Bank and just behind FCMB. Net Interest margins is well above industry average and the bank's total loans is currently less than its total equity. Margins are still very much thin as operational expenses continue to eat deep into revenues, slicing off 91% of operating income.

Despite the seeming effective rebuilding process, Union Bank still isn't a bullish proposition in my opinion. The bank is still weighed down by huge negative distributable reserves of about N265billion to contend with. A clear cut plan explaining how it intends to set this off against premium is ket to his ability to repay shareholders some returns on their investment. Its huge and aging work force is still a worry coupled with its antediluvian perception amongst the younger generations of depositors.

Share Price

Their share price has declined month to date by N10.20 to N8.60 as at April 29, 2013. Price Earnings is like 14x and about 1.8billion of the stock is traded monthly on average according to Bloomberg. Price to book ratio is just about 0.76. Some might find this metric enticing and find a buying opportunity whilst some may just see the stock as over priced. This stock should be trading at about N2.50 at the most. For me, I'd wait on the sidelines. There are better opportunities out there.



Union Bank Plc Audited Accounts for 2012 is posted on the website of the NSE

Investment / Re: Analysis Of Results Of Companies On The Nigerian Stock Exchange by ugodre(m): 6:04pm On Apr 29, 2013
2012 RESULTS SEES FCMB BACK TO PROFITABILITY - NO DIVIDEND BUT 1 FOR 25 BONUS

FCMB Bank released a double dose of full year audited accounts for 2012 and first quarter unaudited accounts for the period ending March 2013. During the year ended December 2012, Net Interest Income rose 17% to N43.3billion. This resulted in a net interest margin of 50% down from 60% the year before. The bank ended the year with a return to profitability as they made a post tax profit of N16billion (2011: (N9.2billion).



Result Overview

2011 was a tumultuous year for FCMB just as it was for many other banks. Despite posting strong Net Interest margins of about 60% that year it was not enough to absorb loan losses of over N27billion during the period. 2012 was no different, even though the N12.6billion in loan loss suffered was 54% lower 2011. The bank claims its non-performing loans (NPL) ratio fell year on year by 10.9% to 2.5% inching higher to 3.3% at the end of first quarter 2013. Operating profit margin though below industry average, may be due to its merger and acquisition cost.

The period ended March 2013 gives an insight as to what to expect for 2013. The bank seems to have learnt lessons during the period as loan and advances dropped by 8%. Pre-tax profits rose moderately by 10% to N4.8billion as the bank continues to contend with rising operational cost. Bank's this year will mostly declare profits however, it is those that are able to generate return on equity in excess of 20% that will have the competitive advantage. FCMB delivered ROE of 12% in 2012 and 3.2% at the first quarter of 2013, fairly flat in my opinion. The likes of Skye Bank, Diamond Bank and Sterling posted above 5% ROE for the first quarter.

Share Price/Dividend/Bonus

FCMB share price has had a negative return of 17.7% in the last year according to Bloomberg. Their share price also shaved off 8% in value to close at N4.30 today (29/4/2013). Their price earnings ratio is based on the current price is about 5x whilst price to book ratio is about 0.61x. Banking stocks are mostly undervalued and this indices shows just why. But for the price to take a beating after crawling back to profitability the market is probably punishing the bank for not issuing dividends even after issuing a 1 for 25 bonus shares (4 shares for every 100 held). But you can't blame the bank can you? The bank has distributable reserves of just N5billion. If it distributed all of that (a big IF) earnings, it will only amount to 26kobo per share, a yield of 6%...but even that will send a wrong signal. CBN will ask them to recapitalize..a worse proposition.

The better option for the bank was to therefore give out 4% of its 18.7billion outstanding shares as a bonus issue. Shareholders can then go to the market and sell to recoup investments. That will be about N3.2billion at todays price for shareholders. To the bank, the only cost is a share dilution and possibly a further devaluing of its already undervalued share price. Not sure they mind though!!





FCMB released its 2012 Audited Accounts on the website of the NSE

Investment / Re: Analysis Of Results Of Companies On The Nigerian Stock Exchange by ugodre(m): 6:25pm On Apr 24, 2013
IS THIS THE HIGHEST EVER PROFIT DECLARED BY A PLC?? DANGOTE CEMENT POST N151.9BILLION PAT

Dangote Cement released its 2012 Audited Accounts with revenues rising 23.6% to N298.4billion. The company also raised its operational profit by 24.4% to N146.5billion (2011: N117.7billion). The company made a pre-tax profit of N135.6billion up 19% from the prior year. Dangote Plc's earnings per share (EPS) at the end of 2012 was N8.92 (2011: N7.13).

Result overview

Dangote Plc is arguably the most profitable quoted company in Nigeria. They operate in a very competitive market that includes importers, manufacturers and a hybrid of both. However, a lot of the competitiveness in the sector is not very reflective on their financial statements as margins remained considerably flat. A look at their indices shows a flat performance in all aspects. Operational profit margins and profit margins all came out flat. So while the cement industry maybe worried about a clog, which may help crash prices and probably raised operating expenses, this has not happened going by this result.

Despite this, I expect Dangote's profitability growth to slow in the next 3-5yrs as the effects of the wear and tear of their huge property, plants and equipments (PP&E) starts to add to the expense line. Last year, 57.5% of the PP&E was under construction as such those assets will not be depreciated and not affecting expensed till those projects are completed. Top line revenue may also come under some pressures as government waivers and friendly policies expire. Dangote Cement also carries about N160billion in debt (38% of its equity). However, most of its debts cost about 10% or below, very cheap considering market expectations. In addition, they have a high return on asset of 24.4% giving them enough buffer in the unlikely event that their lending rates start to rise. All in all, the company will still remain hugely profitable considering the much awaited and potential boom in the housing sector.

For now a return on equity of 43% is by all means a fantastic result to any shareholder. It is way above the average returns on the NSEAI last year and twice the government bond yields. The company promised a dividend payment of N3 which some might frown upon considering it is just a yield of about 2%. However, this amounts to 33% distribution of earnings and will gulp about N51billion in cash. But then, what is worrying about the yield when the they can post average ROE of 43%. The point is, if the company can give me a better yield on my investment (ROE) why complain about paltry dividend yield. I will be dully compensated from capital gains on the stock (which even comes tax free).

Any value opportunity yet?

Dangote Cement traded at N160 up 2.56% at the close of business 24/4/2013. The current price provides a multiple of about 18x on the current earnings. Its price to book ratio is about 6.6 as the market places a higher premium on its net assets. Though, this price may seem high on the surface, the company's size and moat in the industry portends an upside going forward. Besides, going by the dividend thirsty Nigerian bourse, the price may shed some value in the next few days presenting a buying opportunity.


Dangote Cement 2012 Audited Accounts is posted on the website of the NSE

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