₦airaland Forum

hamjola:
Available

i sent my CV already boss

Superwave16320:
Quote me a day or 2 days to election to finalize the bet. That day is your lucky day. You go chop me tire

so na your matter we go carry put for head?
Let’s do it now workch@outlook.com
Send you WhatsApp number there

Lol

Felimax:
Sorry, I thought I was talking with a matured mind. Truly, not all that glitters are good.

So to what end is this your analysis by region?
I just hope you guys will not come and shout the election was rigged tomorrow?

Felimax:
Anybody not supporting Obi must be supporting Tinubu abi?
It's ok.

You that is very smart (Wizkid) consider this from your analysis above and drag out your conclusion.
25% votes from at least 26 states and highest number of votes.
Smart kid! Are there?

the data above doesn’t give a picture as to how candidates will get 25% in 24 states.

How do you reason?

Look at it and think

Ngwamankillyou:
Okay tell this to the tribal warlords.

Dont follow a pig to the mud

Felimax:
Even with this your inconclusive analysis Obi has failed woefully.
The South East does not really have what it takes to determine how far Obi will go.

You are not smart at all.
This doesn’t give account of the margins in each region so you can’t tell who will win by this.

Why are majority of Tinubu supporters not very smart?

Ngwamankillyou:
Igbo Man can't this and that,we will show you how zik got Nigeria when your forefathers were shining white man's shoes.

calm down, Obi is not an Igbo project.
We all want the best candidate and Obi is the best irrespective of his tribe

Felimax:
Indeed! I just hope we will not hear referendum again.
We will soon know who is in the past.

I love the way you are underestimating Peter Obi by using the old style of election.
Keep it up, we are monitoring INEC into to with this new reform.

You will be shocked

Felimax:
Peter Obi results na go surprise una pass.
Obi will win South in your dream!

I don't underate any candidate but you see that South and PDP na there election for end. That is when you will understand that the people commenting on Nairaland and the real voters are not the same.

Lol, you don’t seem to know what’s going on.
You are stuck in the past

OfficialAPCNig:
North Central

Winner: Peter Obi
Runner up: Atiku

Its hard to call o

Argentina

Dialpad:
Keep getting yourself excited ... reality will dawn on you soon

How do you think Tinubu can beat Atiku in the north and Peter Obi in south in a free and fair election?

How?

1 Northwest
Winner: Atiku
Runnnerup: Tinubu or Kwankwaso

2. Northeast
Winner: ATiku
Runner up: Tinubu

3. Southeast
Winner: Peter Obi
Runner up: Atiku

4. Southwest
Winner: Tinubu
Runner up: Peter Obi

5. Southsouth
Winner: Peter Obi
Runner up: Atiku

6. North central
Undecided

It’s evident that this race without rigging is between Atiku and Peter Obi.

Tinubu is just there to destroy Peter Obi’s votes in southwest because Tinubu can never beat a northerner in the north. It will be a miracle.
Tinubu also cannot beat Peter Obi in southsouth and southeast. I don’t see that happening but let’s wait and see

BAT cannot win any local government in southsouth

garfield1:
Since obi cannot get 25% in ne/nw,he won't make headway no matter his votes.tinubu is seriously wooing and fighting for votes in se/ss plus the pdp g5

No one is sure of getting 25% in 24 states now.

It’s why Peter obi needs kwankwasp to do well, so it becomes harder for Tinubu and Atiku in the north

A rerun is most likely hence

saintopus:
Very insightful indeed.

You may be right.

I see a possible run off.

Just like every vote in the South East and South South for Peter Obi increased the chance of Tinubu wining the election

Well, that would have been the case if Peter Obi is also not the probable winner like kwankwaso.

In this case, every vote in southeast and southsouth for Peter Obi gives Peter obi more figures. Peter Obi is not really fighting hard to win northwest and Northeast, even as the largest voting bloc is there, the more votes Tinubu loses in northwest, northeast to Atiku and kwankwaso and in southsouth and southeast to Obi, the lesser his chances. This also applies to Atiku.

Atiku and Tinubu needs to find ways to steal more votes in southeast and southsouth

Hello guys, I want to share my opinion on the dynamics of this election. Although I am obedient, however I try as much to give my unbiased opinion on the elections. This election no doubt is the most unpredictable election in the history of Nigeria, which is what makes it very interesting, you cannot categorically say who will win. It would have been so easy to rig for the ruling party if we hadn’t reformed our electoral process. While rigging is still possible, however the effect it will have on the overall process without been detected has reduced drastically for sure.

In this election, we have four major contenders, some of you might think it’s 3 but kwankwaso is there not to win but to distrupt how the final result pans out. The most likely to win is still Tinubu, obi or Atiku but kwankwaso will play a major role.

The role of Kwankwaso
If Kwankwaso managed to reach any agreement with Labour Party to become Peter Obi’s VP, this election would been over by 12pm on Election Day. It means that Peter Obi would have a major entry into the core northern voting bloc and an existing northern structure.
Whoever kwankwaso decides to form Alliance with right now between Tinubu , Atiku and Obi, will have the clear edge. However, if he refuses to step down and then gain more traction in the north, it will be to the advantage of Peter obi because he’s there to decimate the votes of the already existing APC structure in the north and Atiku regional popularity.
It’s very important for Peter Obi that Kwankwaso remains in this race to help him disrupt the north.

The big 3
Assuming that Kwankwaso remains in this race, the big 3 will have to battle well outside of their respective regions.

Southern Nigeria: Tinubu is evidently going to win southwest while peter Obi will win southeast, however I see Peter Obi getting more votes in southwest by percentage than Tinubu will get in the southeast. This is because of the yawning of southeasterner for president and the marketability of the two candidates. Peter Obi is more accepted in these two region combined for his meekness, credibility and antecedents. It’s why even some Yorubas will vote for him against their kinsman.
In southsouth, Peter Obi seem to be getting the edge. The reasons are not far fetched; some people in this region berates Tinubu’s Yoruba lokan comment, they think he’s a tyrant who won’t let Lagos leave his coffers hence the word “Edo no be Lagos” and “Delta no be Lagos” , they won’t vote a northerner ahead or a southerners this time and Peter Obi is more acceptable because of his credibility and antecedents. Atiku will more likely get votes here than in southeast and southwest.

Northern Nigeria: This is the warzone and the the two major contenders here are Tinubu and Atiku. North central looks very even for all 3 major candidates but the northwest and northeast is where Tinubu and Atiku will dog it out with kwankwanso working for Peter Obi by proxy. The prayer of every peter Obi supporter should be that Kwankwaso does well in these two regions to decimate the votes of Tinubu and Atiku. However, Atiku is most likely to win Northwest and northeast with APC coming close as runner-up. This region since 2003 will vote for core northerners and they have herd mentality. Although, this time, it won’t be a bloc vote for one candidate but ethnicity and regionalism will come out top at the end of the day here whether or not APC is the ruling party most likely.


Conclusion: it’s still a tough one to call, it will become clearer as events unfold.

yinkeys:
I think Oyo will go to Obi because of the governor
He’d use resources to make than happen
I don’t know though

Governors don’t matter this time a lot because of the electoral reform, there’s a Yoruba agenda in those states

Cheasystickylov:
Nasarawa is no longer Nigeria?

That state is too close to call

rolams:
Obi can't win Delta, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Edo and Imo. Kwakwaso can't win Jigawa oooo!

Obi will win all SE states. No Be the governor Dey vote

mandarin:
Tribalism/ ethnicity will play major roles in this elections with four key contenders I BAT, Atiku, Kwankwaso and PO.
Tinubu won't get less than 85% in any of Oyo, Osun, Ondo and Ekiti and at least 70% in Ogun and Lagos.

its the reason why he will win there in the first place doesn’t mean that he will win by 70%

Moh247:
For someone who doesn't understand what hypothesis means

I can't engage you further

The data is too insufficient bro.

You cannot conclude with what we have that Tinubu even be second.

Moh247:
If you are Educated and know methodology of research which I doubt you can at your low level

Hypothesis supercedes a theory before a theory becoming a fact or law

For now permutations and analysis where based on O.Ps hypothesis and nobody claimed it's a fact

You do not know how Tinubu will perform in other states and also how much of margin he will get in these states and also whether he will win other states


The data is very insufficient. We need proper education in this country

Moh247:
If you also reason properly you should understand I worked in data available and the O.Ps hypothesis... I didn't bring out any prediction of my own

The op is still too insufficient to make a call.

Reason, you went to school

Moh247:




That means Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the clear winner


.

The data up there is still too insufficient to decide who will win.

How do you average Nigerians reason like you didn’t learn anything in school?

Superwave16320:
If Peter Obi win 3 States out of the ones you listed or any other State at all i owe you 50K cash. If I say make you put your money where your mouth is now na wail you go de wail so make i give you the 50K if he win 3 States to prove i know nothing about Nigeria politics.

email your Whatsapp number to workch@outlook.com

Challenge accepted, if you have any other means that I can contact you, please let me know

ALTERNATEID:
So, by what percentage will he win Ekiti and Oyo state?

He cannot win there by 70% Oga ade

You people must think that every Nigerian is dumb and will vote on tribal lines

These states are the states for now they each of these candidates will win.

1. Obi
Anambra
Imo
Ebonyi
Abia
Enugu
Benue
Rivers
Edo

Probable states: FCT, Akwa ibom, crossriver, Bayelsa, Delta.

2. Atiku
Adamawa
Sokoto
Taraba
Bauchi
Probable states: Yobe and Gombe

3. Tinubu
Lagos
Ogun
Osun
Oyo
Ekiti
Kwara
Probable states: Kogi, Borno, Kaduna

4. Kwankwaso
Kano
Probable states: Jigawa

Other states are still too dicey to call

Lol, some people think Tinubu can ever win any state in this country by 70%?

He cannot even win his Lagos by that margin

Why is this thread by a fanatic in politics section ?

Mynd44 please do the needful

hamjola:
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Bsc/Hnd holder with experience in Marketing.
If qualified, send c.v to hamjola@yahoo.com.
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I sent my CV