₦airaland Forum

saintopus:
Very insightful indeed.

You may be right.

I see a possible run off.

Just like every vote in the South East and South South for Peter Obi increased the chance of Tinubu wining the election

Well, that would have been the case if Peter Obi is also not the probable winner like kwankwaso.

In this case, every vote in southeast and southsouth for Peter Obi gives Peter obi more figures. Peter Obi is not really fighting hard to win northwest and Northeast, even as the largest voting bloc is there, the more votes Tinubu loses in northwest, northeast to Atiku and kwankwaso and in southsouth and southeast to Obi, the lesser his chances. This also applies to Atiku.

Atiku and Tinubu needs to find ways to steal more votes in southeast and southsouth

Hello guys, I want to share my opinion on the dynamics of this election. Although I am obedient, however I try as much to give my unbiased opinion on the elections. This election no doubt is the most unpredictable election in the history of Nigeria, which is what makes it very interesting, you cannot categorically say who will win. It would have been so easy to rig for the ruling party if we hadn’t reformed our electoral process. While rigging is still possible, however the effect it will have on the overall process without been detected has reduced drastically for sure.

In this election, we have four major contenders, some of you might think it’s 3 but kwankwaso is there not to win but to distrupt how the final result pans out. The most likely to win is still Tinubu, obi or Atiku but kwankwaso will play a major role.

The role of Kwankwaso
If Kwankwaso managed to reach any agreement with Labour Party to become Peter Obi’s VP, this election would been over by 12pm on Election Day. It means that Peter Obi would have a major entry into the core northern voting bloc and an existing northern structure.
Whoever kwankwaso decides to form Alliance with right now between Tinubu , Atiku and Obi, will have the clear edge. However, if he refuses to step down and then gain more traction in the north, it will be to the advantage of Peter obi because he’s there to decimate the votes of the already existing APC structure in the north and Atiku regional popularity.
It’s very important for Peter Obi that Kwankwaso remains in this race to help him disrupt the north.

The big 3
Assuming that Kwankwaso remains in this race, the big 3 will have to battle well outside of their respective regions.

Southern Nigeria: Tinubu is evidently going to win southwest while peter Obi will win southeast, however I see Peter Obi getting more votes in southwest by percentage than Tinubu will get in the southeast. This is because of the yawning of southeasterner for president and the marketability of the two candidates. Peter Obi is more accepted in these two region combined for his meekness, credibility and antecedents. It’s why even some Yorubas will vote for him against their kinsman.
In southsouth, Peter Obi seem to be getting the edge. The reasons are not far fetched; some people in this region berates Tinubu’s Yoruba lokan comment, they think he’s a tyrant who won’t let Lagos leave his coffers hence the word “Edo no be Lagos” and “Delta no be Lagos” , they won’t vote a northerner ahead or a southerners this time and Peter Obi is more acceptable because of his credibility and antecedents. Atiku will more likely get votes here than in southeast and southwest.

Northern Nigeria: This is the warzone and the the two major contenders here are Tinubu and Atiku. North central looks very even for all 3 major candidates but the northwest and northeast is where Tinubu and Atiku will dog it out with kwankwanso working for Peter Obi by proxy. The prayer of every peter Obi supporter should be that Kwankwaso does well in these two regions to decimate the votes of Tinubu and Atiku. However, Atiku is most likely to win Northwest and northeast with APC coming close as runner-up. This region since 2003 will vote for core northerners and they have herd mentality. Although, this time, it won’t be a bloc vote for one candidate but ethnicity and regionalism will come out top at the end of the day here whether or not APC is the ruling party most likely.


Conclusion: it’s still a tough one to call, it will become clearer as events unfold.

yinkeys:
I think Oyo will go to Obi because of the governor
He’d use resources to make than happen
I don’t know though

Governors don’t matter this time a lot because of the electoral reform, there’s a Yoruba agenda in those states

Cheasystickylov:
Nasarawa is no longer Nigeria?

That state is too close to call

rolams:
Obi can't win Delta, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Edo and Imo. Kwakwaso can't win Jigawa oooo!

Obi will win all SE states. No Be the governor Dey vote

mandarin:
Tribalism/ ethnicity will play major roles in this elections with four key contenders I BAT, Atiku, Kwankwaso and PO.
Tinubu won't get less than 85% in any of Oyo, Osun, Ondo and Ekiti and at least 70% in Ogun and Lagos.

its the reason why he will win there in the first place doesn’t mean that he will win by 70%

Moh247:
For someone who doesn't understand what hypothesis means

I can't engage you further

The data is too insufficient bro.

You cannot conclude with what we have that Tinubu even be second.

Moh247:
If you are Educated and know methodology of research which I doubt you can at your low level

Hypothesis supercedes a theory before a theory becoming a fact or law

For now permutations and analysis where based on O.Ps hypothesis and nobody claimed it's a fact

You do not know how Tinubu will perform in other states and also how much of margin he will get in these states and also whether he will win other states


The data is very insufficient. We need proper education in this country

Moh247:
If you also reason properly you should understand I worked in data available and the O.Ps hypothesis... I didn't bring out any prediction of my own

The op is still too insufficient to make a call.

Reason, you went to school

Moh247:




That means Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the clear winner


.

The data up there is still too insufficient to decide who will win.

How do you average Nigerians reason like you didn’t learn anything in school?

Superwave16320:
If Peter Obi win 3 States out of the ones you listed or any other State at all i owe you 50K cash. If I say make you put your money where your mouth is now na wail you go de wail so make i give you the 50K if he win 3 States to prove i know nothing about Nigeria politics.

email your Whatsapp number to workch@outlook.com

Challenge accepted, if you have any other means that I can contact you, please let me know

ALTERNATEID:
So, by what percentage will he win Ekiti and Oyo state?

He cannot win there by 70% Oga ade

You people must think that every Nigerian is dumb and will vote on tribal lines

These states are the states for now they each of these candidates will win.

1. Obi
Anambra
Imo
Ebonyi
Abia
Enugu
Benue
Rivers
Edo

Probable states: FCT, Akwa ibom, crossriver, Bayelsa, Delta.

2. Atiku
Adamawa
Sokoto
Taraba
Bauchi
Probable states: Yobe and Gombe

3. Tinubu
Lagos
Ogun
Osun
Oyo
Ekiti
Kwara
Probable states: Kogi, Borno, Kaduna

4. Kwankwaso
Kano
Probable states: Jigawa

Other states are still too dicey to call

Lol, some people think Tinubu can ever win any state in this country by 70%?

He cannot even win his Lagos by that margin

Why is this thread by a fanatic in politics section ?

Mynd44 please do the needful

hamjola:
Business Development Executives are needed urgently in a Solar Energy company in Victoria island.
Bsc/Hnd holder with experience in Marketing.
If qualified, send c.v to hamjola@yahoo.com.
Salary very attractive.
Official car is available for Marketing.

Best Regards.

I currently work for a solar energy company.

I sent my CV

LOL

Jokers

I messaged you on whatsapp, I am a cobbler/shoemaker

sanusideunifier:
This is a national embarrassment.

I swear.

One even call mocked him by calling him Jagaban

This is painful.

Imagine what we happen when we elect him as president
The video doesn't want to post on nairaland
You can download it with this link

https://savemyvid.com/yooh8_yooh

1. Muslim-Muslim ticket: I do not really think that Tinubu cares about religion. The man, with evidence that I see doesn't place religion at the forefront of his life hence this issue doesn't really matter to him.
I am saying this because if he does, his wife and children will never be Christians. Tinubu is not even a core Muslim, he is an unserious Muslim by all indication. So I strike this particular one out

2. Godfatherism: The evidence is so glaring that Tinubu is a Godfather and godfather is never good in a democracy. What it does is that it makes it hard to challenge his opinions even after he has left office. He will still have a level of influence on his successors, that is never a good thing.

3. Criminality: There are many indications of Tinubu's criminality. Whether or not we do not have evidence for this, but the sights are there. People may choose to ignore them for sentimental reasons, but we cannot keep deceiving ourselves when truth keeps staring at us. His antecedents are too shrouded in mysteries and this is seeming fraudulent.

4. Competence as a governor: it's up for a debate but I think that Tinubu didn't do well in terms of infrastructure vis-a-vis the revenue he got. If you are going to dissect and do a comparative study with other states in his time and now with respect to infrastructure/revenue, you will realize that Tinubu didn't do much in Lagos in terms of infrastructure.
However, he tried to establish many institutions, which doesn't really cost a lot of money to do.
The question now is, what was he doing with the huge Lagos state revenue?
I hope this question can be answered some day

Lo, this one is high.

If PDP see 3rd in Lagos, make them manage.

Is APC and obedients a joke to you?

lhordspy:
Read the analysis well. The yahya bello influence has grown over the past years. He has successful built himself a vast, strong political structure. I refer to him as the wike of Kogi state.

yahaya Bello was there in the last election and APC didn't well comfortably.

That's analysis is wrong, you have to admit it.
APC cannot get up to 50% votes in Kogi going by the last election and the emergence of LP

I won't be surprise if APC even loses Kogi this time

lhordspy:
If you read my analysis very well, sir.

I stated clearly that the kwakwansiyas usually travel to the core norths, their states to vote. During election season Nasarawa and Abuja are always very empty of bikemens and other northerners.

Please dont ever mention keffi and lafia with obi in same sentence. Or are you joking?

your analysis in Kogi is wrong.

The last election, APC couldn't win conveniently there. Check the figures. It was very close, how come you are giving monumental figures to APC now

You think APC will win nasarawa and Plateau?
Think am

LP will win in plateau state

VERIFIABLE ACHIEVEMENTS OF @PeterObi AS GOVERNOR OF ANAMBRA STATE (PARTIAL LISTING). GO AND VERIFY.
1. Anambra was the first State to commence Sub-Sovereign Wealth savings, the first of its kind in Sub-Saharan Africa. At a time many other Governors were leaving huge debts, @PeterObi left the equivalent of $500 million Dollars in investment as well as local & foreign currency,
including $156 million in Dollar-denominated bonds.
2. For the first time in the history of Anambra State, Ambassadors & High Commissioners of notable countries such as United States, Britain, Russia, European Union, Belgium, Netherlands, Canada, among others, visited the State.
Before @PeterObi tenure, Anambra was practically a pariah state blacklisted by the Diplomatic Corps and international development partners.
Development partners such as UNDP, UNICEF, the World Bank, DFID, the European Union etc., started working in Anambra State under OBI
Anambra was consistently adjudged one of the best states in development partnership and commitment to reforms for good governance under @PeterObi .. pls make sure u verify. I did. ☝�
, was recognised as Best Governor by the Millennium Development Goals Office (OSSAP-MDGs) and the UNDP in the implementation of their programmes in Nigeria.
The Nigerian Debt Management Office (DMO) rated Anambra as the least indebted state in Nigeria. In spite of visible and measurable achievements recorded in various sectors, the State under @PeterObi, did not borrow or raise bonds for her various projects.
The Senate of the Federal Republic of Nigeria rated Anambra State as the most financially stable state in the country under @PeterObi’s watch
The State’s ground-breaking return of schools to their original owners – (Churches) on 1st January 2009, & subsequent partnership with the Agencies in Education, saw the State move from 24th position out of 36 States to Number 1 in National Examination, under @PeterObi
Under @PeterObi for 3 consecutive years, Anambra was number One in both NECO and WAEC. This made the World Bank to commission a study, led by the renowned Prof. Paul Collier of Oxford University, on this revolutionary partnership and phenomenal achievement.
The State also entered into strategic partnership with the Churches in the Health sector under @PeterObi . This symbiotic relationship resulted in a tremendous boost to health care because of the services offered by health institutions owned by Voluntary Agencies,
while the State restored grants to the agencies and made available to them more than 50 million Dollars in various types of support.

Through partnership with the Church in the Health sector, @PeterObi Government funded the transformation of :
a: Iyienu Hospital, Ogidi;
b: Our Lady of Lourdes Hospital, Ihiala;
c: St Charles Borromeo Hospital, Onitsha;
d: Holy Rosary Hospital, Waterside, Onitsha; and
e: St. Joseph Hospital, Adazi-Nnukwu.
, Government also built the Joseph Nwilo Heart Centre in St. Joseph, Adazi-Nnukwu, where heart operations are now being performed.
His Government won the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (1 Million dollars) as the best-performing state in immunisation in the South-East.
With complementary funding from @PeterObi Government, they used the money to build 10 Maternal and Child Care Centres across the State, particularly in rural communities, in partnership with the Churches.
, was the first to procure & distribute more than 30,000 computers to secondary schools, including 22,500 from HP. The MD for Personal Systems Group HP Inc, Mr. Fabrice Campoy, described the deployment as the biggest of such projects in the Middle-East & Africa.
Anambra State Government provided Microsoft Academies to more than 500 secondary schools, which the Head of Microsoft in Nigeria (Mr. Ken Span) described as the biggest such deployment in Africa so far.
, provided Internet access to more than 500 secondary schools, which the CEO of Galaxy Backbone (Mr. Gerald Ilukwe) characterized as incomparable to any in the country.
More than 700 buses were provided to secondary schools in the State by obi’ Government.
Boreholes were provided in schools all over the State, under @PeterObi watch
Numerous classrooms were built in all the 177 communities of the State.
As part of the efforts to turn around the economy of the State, a number of companies were attracted to build their facilities in the Anambra State under @PeterObi watch. A case in point is SABMiller, the 2nd largest brewery in the world.
SABMILLER, built their first Green Field facility in the State, which is today one of the most successful facilities they operate globally.
A number of other companies followed the SABMiller initiative and were all supported and encouraged under @PeterObi Government;
a good example is INNOSON Motor Manufacturing Company, from which our government bought more than 1,000 vehicles.
Anambra State for the first time started close collaboration with recognized government security agencies (the Police, Army, Navy, Department of State Security,
Civil Defence, among others), offering them various types of support including provision of more than 500 security vehicles. The improvement in security was phenomenal, such that the former IG of Police (Abubakar Mohammed) lauded Anambra State for not witnessing any bank robbery
To further enhance security, Anambra State under @PeterObi, provided at least one security vehicle to each of all the 177 communities in the State as well as various organizations such as markets and Churches.
Administration conceived and built, from scratch, the first state-owned Teaching Hospital, Chukwuemeka Odumegwu-Ojukwu teaching Hospital, Awka.
His Government commenced the planned development of the Igbariam Campus of the ChukwuemekaOdumegwu-Ojukwu University.

Mr Innocent Chukwuma, Chairman of the Innoson Vehicle Manufacturing Limited (IVM), recently hosted top media executives to a media parley in his hometown of Nnewi, Anambra State.
While giving a tour of his magnificent vehicle manufacturing factory, Mr Chukwuma disclosed the idea behind the auto brand as well as the support his business has enjoyed from the former governor, @PeterObi
When we started, nobody believed in us, but the then-governor, @PeterObi helped us a lot by patronising us massively. What Peter Obi did, made the factory grow. Obi paid us in advance to manufacture 500 buses to give to schools across the state.
Aikon MM-Ogedengbe Profile picture
Aikon MM-Ogedengbe
@Aikoges
Nov 11
@PeterObi quotes that set the internet on fire... "To you young people, Take Back your Country...it is your future they are toying with". "I reduced my convoy to 5 vehicles and you cannot buy fuel unless I am in the car".
"If I sleep in a hotel and have to pay N250k a night, I will be awake all night...feeling like I was robbed". - Peter Obi "You know there are many big men in Anambra state, so when they want to see me, I say to them I will come to you instead".
“We handed schools back to Churches and by 2013, we were number one in WAEC." "I beg you to participate more in politics, the society we help them abuse today will take its revenge tomorrow".

Amongst the Presidential candidates, only @PeterObi, has consistently engaged Nigerians on national issues himself and how he intends to solve them in the last 3 years if not more. He seems to be the only one that has the interest of the common man.
@PeterObi, lost constitutional immunity eight years ago. As an opposition ex Governor, he has not been invited by EFCC, ICPC, NFIU, DSS or any other criminal investigating agency.
@PeterObi, doesn’t have any court injunction barring these agencies from investigation or prosecuting him. His travel documents are not deposited in any court. He’s an absolutely free man. He has been traveling freely abroad, and not afraid to go to the US�


https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1591079973154349056.html

PandoraObi:
Urchin, stop calling your mother's name here

we can both agreed that you liked like your drug trafficker abi?

Baba, drop your number na

PandoraObi:
Peter Obidi0t himself said 10billion

show me where he said it, urchin

asanausana91:
with my 30 years experience of educating foools I have never seen a dangerous fooool like you. Are you telling me that buhari must do all the road in this country before you know that he has done road? Do you know how many roads we have in this country?
Secondly, I will be happy to tell you that iam enjoying light 2 4 7 in my area. So if you don't have light, go and recharge your card.

30years of experience yet you know nothing

asanausana91:
because you cannot afford to pay for your electricity is not Buhari fault, Buhari has given you prepaid meter free, just recharge your card and you will have your light.
Secondly, that Lagos Ibadan express road had been a political road that politicians use to campaign but after election they will abandon the road. That road has been under construction for more than 30years, ñow that Buhari completed it within 8 years you are still complaining.
Why do you guys hate buhari? I don't know you will be hating a man that serves this country with all his strength and one mind.

mumu, even those that have money to pay don't see the electricity. Lol

He did roads and Lagos/abeokuta expressway is still a dear trap