₦airaland Forum

Abeg, when is Obi coming.

All these ones na legbere

garfield1:
True.I agree,tinubu is not as popular in his region but fortunately the opposition is very weak in sw.and he is the only major Yoruba contesting plus the sw alwats gives bloc votes to a Yoruba candidate.

Now buhari an outsider polled 55% in sw.tinubu an indigene can't poll less than buhari.he will poll slightly more let's say 60%.again,most lp supporters are from pdp so they share from the same pool which means lp and pdp won't have more than 40%.the ekiti polls was an indicator..

Now concerning pollsters nextier,buhari was estimated to get 35% in se/ss in 2015.what happened? Atiku was estimated to get 40% in north

See, if you view this election with the image of the last one, you will miss the point.
Follow the polls and methodologies.

Tinubu is not as accepted as you make it seem. Surveys again and again has proven that

[quote author=ItsTutsi post=118593300][/quote]According to Nextier survey Carried out in rural areas on people who have PVC, Peter obi got 67% in SS. For the benefit of doubt, I am giving him 60%

In north central he got 59.8%, I will give him 35% because these polls were conducted in Nasarawa and Benue communities which are strongholds of Peter Obi.

In southwest, he got 24% as agains Tinubu who got 37%. These was conducted in Ogun and Oyo communities. A lot of people are still undecided here. Obi will get at least 25% in SW

garfield1:
You are right.you are close to the truth but peter may not win the nc because he will only do well in benue,plateau,fct.he will perform poorly in kwara,niger,kogi.but both tinubu and atiku will compete in plateau,benue,fct.
With tinubu in,sw won't be a battle ground outside lagos.obi can't compete in Ogun,ekiti,Osun,ondo.atiku will fair better.outside anambra,tinubu and atiku have the resources to compete in abia,IMO,ebonyi,Enugu.ss will be a big battleground.but the election will be basically between obi and tinubu.what will kill obi is the spread which atiku and Tinubu will easily get

I do not think SS and SE will be any battle ground. Atiku will steal votes in SS no doubt

The battle ground is in NC between AA, BAT and PO
NE between BAT and AA
NW between BAT, AA and NK
SW between BAT and PO

garfield1:
You are right.you are close to the truth but peter may not win the nc because he will only do well in benue,plateau,fct.he will perform poorly in kwara,niger,kogi.but both tinubu and atiku will compete in plateau,benue,fct.
With tinubu in,sw won't be a battle ground outside lagos.obi can't compete in Ogun,ekiti,Osun,ondo.atiku will fair better.outside anambra,tinubu and atiku have the resources to compete in abia,IMO,ebonyi,Enugu.ss will be a big battleground.but the election will be basically between obi and tinubu.what will kill obi is the spread which atiku and Tinubu will easily get

nextier poll conducted in some people Ogun and Oyo rural areas with people who have voters card suggest that Obi has rural presence about electorates in the rural areas in SW.
Tinubu had 37% people with voters card saying they will vote for him while obi was second with 24%.
I am not saying that this survey should be totally relied upon, however, it’s a huge indication that Tinubu is not as popular as you think in southwest.
It gives a rough image of what’s going to happen

garfield1:
I like your analysis.but it will be closer in
Ne between tinubu and atiku than in northwest.again,tinubu and obi will outscore atiku in north central.obi will score less than 30% in sw.outside lagos,obi won't see 25%.tinubu and atiku will score a little bit more in ss/se.obi won't see 10% in ne

Well, I won’t disregard your analysis because mine is not perfect but very close to what will happen. However, if anything changes, i sense the following:

1. Kwankwanso will continue to grow in NW and some parts of NE thereby stealing Tinubu’s votes majorly for tribal reasons.

2. Peter Obi has the momentum in north central. He may like even win that region. I sense that he will win Abuja, Plateau and Benue and do well in Nasarawa.

4. It will be harder to steal votes from Peter Obi in southeast than Peter Obi stealing more votes in southwest from Tinubu.
Southwest is a battle ground that will win, but the margin of win is still very debatable

Gracesynty:
I swear

Yes, which over way, there won’t be a clear winner.

I see a rerun

hamjola:
Still open

You are yet contact me. Are you sure it’s real?

Let’s work with this simple hypothesis.

Imagine if:
NW: 1million voters
NE: 600k voters
NC: 800k voters
SS: 700k voters
SE: 500k voters
SW: 800k voters
Total: 4.5million

Northwest
Atiku: 40% 400k
Tinubu: 30% 300k
Kwankwanso: 20% 200k
Obi: 10% 100k

Northeast
Atiku 50% 300k
Tinubu 30% 180k
Kwankwanso 15% 90k
Peter Obi 10% 60k

Northecentral
Peter Obi 30% 240k
Tinubu 30% 240k
Atiku 30% 240
Kwankwanso 10% 80k

Southsouth
Obi 55%: 385k
Atiku 25%: 175k
Tinubu 15% 105k
Kwankwanso 5% 35k

Southeast
Peter Obi 70%: 350k
Atiku 15%: 75k
Tinubu 10%: 50k
Kwankwanso 5%: 25k

Southwest
Tinubu 55%: 440k
Peter Obi 30%: 240k
Atiku 10%: 80k
Kwankwanso 5%: 40k

Total votes

Peter Obi: 1.375million
Tinubu: 1.315million
Atiku: 1.270million
Kwankwanso: 510k


Conclusion
This prediction may not be precise however it’s close to what will happen.
1. If Kwankwanso gains more ground the north, it will Favour Peter Obi

2. Tinubu most not allow Peter obi gain more grounds in southwest.

3. Atiku is most likely to suffer if anything changes here.

4. Kwankwanso cannot win

5. Tinubu can get more numbers if he does his home work well in the north and Kwankwanso doesn’t thrive.

6. I see a rerun between Atiku or Tinubu and Peter Obi is the most probable conclusion for now

7. Atiku needs to do a lot of work in the north as much as he needs to do in the south else he’s out.

8. Peter Obi will Stand tall if he manages to get more than 10% votes in northwest and northeast

ItsTutsi:
Your entitled to your opinion tho, but not necessarily right, I don't agree with you!!

1. The SS is not lockdown for PO, this is a blatant lie that is far from reality!! PO will get majority votes in SS region, but at best/maximum 60%.. Tinubu and atiku will get significant votes(at least 25% each or more) in Edo, CR, Delta states, while Atiku will get significant votes in Bayelsa and Akwa ibom state

worst case scenario, SS region will give Tinubu 25%, Atiku 25, PO 50%.. this projection will be very bad and catastrophic for PO

you need to remove 10% for Tinubu, give it to Peter obi 60%, Atiku 25% and Tinubu 15%.

Tinubu has the least voting bloc here.

2. I laugh whenever I hear PO followers saying Kwankwasso will divide northern votes! I don't blame ur ignorance sha.. the only two states that kwankwasso will get significant votes in north are Kano and

We know kwankwanso will be 3rd but you see that Kano vote, he will deplete it severally. He will be third in every other northwest and northeast state, which is a huge plus for Peter Obi.

3. Tinubu is a clear winner and runner up in at least 4 regions(SW,NC,NW,NE).. where does PO see his path to glory?

Tinubu will only win southwest with Peter obi being a close second in my opinion.
He will be second in NE and NW. how does that make him a clear winner?

If you ask me, Tinubu will be 3rd. Most of the regions is fighting for are heavily contested. Even his southwest is a battle ground, although I think he will eventually win here

Southeast and southsouth are not heavily contested

No wonder they never vote right

Hassanoji1987:
The Atiku/Okowa Presidential Campaign Organisation has told the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) not to bother itself with any preparation for a run-off in the 2023 Presidential election, boasting that the Presidential Candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar, will win at the first ballot.Spokesman to the campaign organisation, Kola Ologbondiyan, in a statement, said: “Our campaign counsels INEC not to listen to diversionary narratives by apologists of the deflated All Progressives Congress (APC) who are ostensibly seeking ways to derail the election, having realised that their Party has been rejected.”

The campaign urged INEC to deploy its resources towards conducting a free, fair, transparent and credible election that will be generally accepted by the majority of Nigerians.

“Our campaign is confident that by every indices and data available, our candidate, Atiku, will win the Presidential election of February 25, 2023, at the first run.

The statement urged Nigerians to remain resolute in their determination to vote in their choice and take every step necessary within the ambit of the law to protect their votes.

Lol, drunk people

copyrites:
We have 2 Northern candidates and 2 Southern candidates

3 of the four candidates are Muslims. In fact, one of these three folks decided to flaunt a Muslim-muslim ticket.

Going by our divisive nature in Nigeria, the current climate favours a southerner, more specifically, a Southern Christian.

Peter Obi should keep playing his role as a leader of all while his Christian supporters across the southern and northern divides continue to spread the message and the need to have a Southern Christian. Let them know why it is not "Tinubu's turn."

If they want competence, give it to them. If they want a divisive campaign, give it to them.

The issue here is that one of the southern candidate cannot obviously win the south.

He cannot obviously win the north as well

His name is Tinubu

If Tinubu and kwankwaso aren’t in the race, Atiku would have cleared all the huge northern votes.
Now as it stands, The huge votes in the northwest and north east will be splitted within these 3, the votes in southwest will split between Peter Obi and Tinubu (although Tinubu will win but not by a huge margin, obi will be close second) while southeast and southsouth are lockdown for Peter Obi.
All these will favor Peter Obi more because his own stronghold in southeast and southsouth are the hardest to penetrate for now by any other candidate.

Everyone will take their own piece in north central.
If this race has been between Peter Obi and Atiku without Tinubu and kwankwaso, Atiku would win before 12noon on Election Day.

Who cares?

hamjola:
Available

i sent my CV already boss

Superwave16320:
Quote me a day or 2 days to election to finalize the bet. That day is your lucky day. You go chop me tire

so na your matter we go carry put for head?
Let’s do it now workch@outlook.com
Send you WhatsApp number there

Lol

Felimax:
Sorry, I thought I was talking with a matured mind. Truly, not all that glitters are good.

So to what end is this your analysis by region?
I just hope you guys will not come and shout the election was rigged tomorrow?

Felimax:
Anybody not supporting Obi must be supporting Tinubu abi?
It's ok.

You that is very smart (Wizkid) consider this from your analysis above and drag out your conclusion.
25% votes from at least 26 states and highest number of votes.
Smart kid! Are there?

the data above doesn’t give a picture as to how candidates will get 25% in 24 states.

How do you reason?

Look at it and think

Ngwamankillyou:
Okay tell this to the tribal warlords.

Dont follow a pig to the mud

Felimax:
Even with this your inconclusive analysis Obi has failed woefully.
The South East does not really have what it takes to determine how far Obi will go.

You are not smart at all.
This doesn’t give account of the margins in each region so you can’t tell who will win by this.

Why are majority of Tinubu supporters not very smart?

Ngwamankillyou:
Igbo Man can't this and that,we will show you how zik got Nigeria when your forefathers were shining white man's shoes.

calm down, Obi is not an Igbo project.
We all want the best candidate and Obi is the best irrespective of his tribe

Felimax:
Indeed! I just hope we will not hear referendum again.
We will soon know who is in the past.

I love the way you are underestimating Peter Obi by using the old style of election.
Keep it up, we are monitoring INEC into to with this new reform.

You will be shocked

Felimax:
Peter Obi results na go surprise una pass.
Obi will win South in your dream!

I don't underate any candidate but you see that South and PDP na there election for end. That is when you will understand that the people commenting on Nairaland and the real voters are not the same.

Lol, you don’t seem to know what’s going on.
You are stuck in the past

OfficialAPCNig:
North Central

Winner: Peter Obi
Runner up: Atiku

Its hard to call o

Argentina

Dialpad:
Keep getting yourself excited ... reality will dawn on you soon

How do you think Tinubu can beat Atiku in the north and Peter Obi in south in a free and fair election?

How?

1 Northwest
Winner: Atiku
Runnnerup: Tinubu or Kwankwaso

2. Northeast
Winner: ATiku
Runner up: Tinubu

3. Southeast
Winner: Peter Obi
Runner up: Atiku

4. Southwest
Winner: Tinubu
Runner up: Peter Obi

5. Southsouth
Winner: Peter Obi
Runner up: Atiku

6. North central
Undecided

It’s evident that this race without rigging is between Atiku and Peter Obi.

Tinubu is just there to destroy Peter Obi’s votes in southwest because Tinubu can never beat a northerner in the north. It will be a miracle.
Tinubu also cannot beat Peter Obi in southsouth and southeast. I don’t see that happening but let’s wait and see

BAT cannot win any local government in southsouth

garfield1:
Since obi cannot get 25% in ne/nw,he won't make headway no matter his votes.tinubu is seriously wooing and fighting for votes in se/ss plus the pdp g5

No one is sure of getting 25% in 24 states now.

It’s why Peter obi needs kwankwasp to do well, so it becomes harder for Tinubu and Atiku in the north

A rerun is most likely hence