₦airaland Forum

KingsCity:
Kwankwaso can win the election by winning 75% of North West votes

lol, 25% coverage nko

garfield1:
The governor has hijacked his lga already

you are still Nanking on these governors.
You are still stock in 2019 and on Saturday, you will be back to the present 😂

Now imagine with 40% voters turnout accross board and Peter Obi getting 65% from southeast and southsouth combined.

That's about 7m votes already.


Even the person that will win Northeast and northwest combined cannot come out with 7m votes there. It will take a lot for them to close that gap

Be like this thing is favoring Peter Obi because me no dey add Lagos to southwest votes

AtikuOkowa:
So Peter Azikwe Obi will win with dot states?

That's why I think you people are foolish. If you actually read my article, you won't type this

If Obi wins, it will be because Kwankwaso was in the race.

Many APC and PDP supporters have this delusion that the northwest decides who becomes president. I even heard the two PDAPC spokespersons on Channels TV yesterday saying this. To me, it doesn't make any sense and it's a delusion that has become a culture, maybe because of their poor ability to look at figures holistically. I have two reasons why I don't always buy that sentiment.

1. Although, northwest is the region with the largest voting block, Buhari won that region 3 times and never became president until northcentral and southwest backed him. It does not make sense to look at it from a myopic lens that no one can become president without winning northwest.

2. Northwest will not be giving bloc votes this time. Although it has the largest voting bloc, it's foolhardy not to accept that these votes will be almost equally scattered between Atiku and Tinubu and Kwankwaso is also going to get a substantial stake from there.

It's why I think that APC and PDP supporters and strategists are myopic and also I have a feeling that Peter Obi can win this election. Whatever vote that kwankwaso gets in northwest is for Peter Obi technically, because Kwankwaso cannot win.
PDP and APC are so foolish that they are yet to realize that if Obi gets 60% in Southeast and Southsouth ( which is very likely), he will automatically have gotten more votes than anybody that wins Northeast and northwest combined in this election.

Peter Obi has taken this battle to the southwest, where he will become second and northcentral where he will get a lot of votes.

Ricky97:
Kwankwaso is more a blessing to Obi than a competition.
Him remaining in this race to the end is strategic for himself but Obi is the immediate beneficiary.

Here's how Obi will likely fare;
+ 25% (NC,NW,NE) cumulatively
+ 39% SW
+ 60% SS
+ >75% SE
+ 45% FCT

Kwankwaso knows he doesn't stand a chance winning this election because of lack of national spread but he's positioning for 2027 and beyond. He is using this election to prove he is a "5m+ votes in the bag" getter, give or take brightening his chances of being a northern consensus candidate pending when it's their turn again.

This scenario helps Obi decentralize bloc votes in the north going to one man. Whereby Kwankwaso, Atiku and Tinubu will get a fair share leaving Obi with sizeable numbers that could aggregate to 25% of total votes cast in the North (NC, NW & NE).

Coming down South the sentiment is it's our turn which dampens Atiku's chances in PDP states plus his party losing G-5 governors. A large chunk of those PDP rebels pit their tent with Obi for obvious reasons asides his experience and capacity in governance.

Tinubu's candidacy is drenched with so much baggage that people can't overlook. Religion is a serious conversation in Nigeria (trivialize it at your own peril), tweaking it further he's clearly not an equity candidate as per Southern Nigeria.
A disadvantaged Tinubu (Ticket composition, Health and Age) makes it all lighter for Obi coupled with his gaffes everytime he graces a podium. Every analyst who doesn't take these fact into consideration is playing around.

Going to the polls BARRING VIOLENCE Obi will comfortably take SE and 60% total votes cast in SS give or take, similar scenario in SW will produce him 39% total votes minimum. His pathway to winning is completely embedded in VIOLENCE FREE ELECTION that will encourage massive voters turn out. This is if president Buhari keeps his word on guaranteeing voters safety nationwide.

So in a nutshell, this election will leave PDAPC with bloody nose steaming from what was awoken politically by EndSars that hasn't been properly put into perspective. The outcome will help galvanize that.


@nlfpm

you have said it all

adigun27:
You are a day dreamer tinubu will get in all ss state write it down and all northern state except adamawa

it's you that is sick. Lol

No be only SS, na sickle cell 😂

Hopium:
Ok. "Lagos result will be too close. Tinubu will struggle to win, if at all"

We will get back to this on Saturday evening.

okay sir

PerfectMan24:
Millions of Anambra state PVC were thrown inside bush but inec counted them as collected.

lol 🤣

E SAY MILLIONS

Hopium:
Ok. "Tinubu cannot win Lagos."

We will get back to this on Saturday evening.

I am not saying that Tinubu cannot win Lagos.
It's too close to call.
Very close

Imagine Obi winning
Anambra
Imo
Abia
Enugu
Ebonyi
Benue
Rivers
Crossriver
Akwa ibom
Abuja
Plateau

And if shocker happens in Lagos.

No one else cs get close to his figures.

Hopium:
Guy, why you dey always think like this? Which state is not a battleground?

Number of pvc collected doesn't mean shit. What matters is the turn out.

The rate is similar to previous cycle. Nothing burger in this.

Lagos is a stiff battle ground. I know what I am talking about.

Tinubu will win other SW states, Kwara and Borno. Lagos is not sure with this cash crunch, military and BVAS. I know what I am saying.

This is not 2019 when someone can pad result register with money

trutharena:
Don’t conflict rate with the actual number of collected PVC.

Oyo still have more PVC collection than Anambra and SW still has the highest PVC collections.

People are going to vote with collected PVC and not PVC rate.

The figure is so similar to 2019 PVC collection and how states are in ranking of top to bottom. It’s as if everything is constant.

don count Lagos o.

You and I know why. We both know that Lagos is a battle ground.

There a sign of voters apathy in southwest

This election go sweet. Both states are not Tinubu stronghold

Ruggedniggaone:
lol clown

thank you

Ruggedniggaone:
So Atiku will not get 25% in fct, you go just dey write your useless imagination come give us as projection

Obi will get 50%
Tinubu: 27%
Atiku: 17%

Obi will score 25% in:
1. Imo
2. Abia
3. Enugu
4.Anambra
5. Ebonyi
6. Rivers
7. Crossrivers
8. Akwa ibom
9. Delta
10. Edo
12. Bayelsa
13. Lagos
14. Ogun
15. Ondo
16. Oyo
17. Nasarawa
18. Kaduna
19. Plateau
20. Benue
21. Taraba
22. Kogi
23. Adamawa
24. Ekiti
25.FCT

Tinubu will score 25% in.
1. Ogun
2. Oyo
3. Lagos
4. Ekiti
5. Osun
6. Ondo
7. Born
8. Zamfara
9. Kebbi
10. Kaduna.
11. Jigawa
12. Yobe
13. Kwara
14. Kogi
15. Niger
16. Nasarawa
17. FCT
18. Katsina
19. Sokoto


Atiku will score 25% in
1. Adamawa
2. Borno
3. Yobe.
4. Bauchi
5. Kano
6. Jigawa
7. Zamfara
8. Taraba
9. Gombe
10. Sokoto
11. Kebbi
13. Katsina
14. Benue
15. Niger
16. Kwara
17. Delta
18. Edo
19. Bayelsa
20. Nasarawa
21. Plateau


Kwankwaso will score 25% in
1. Kano
2. Katsina
3. Bauchi
4. Jigawa
5. Kebbi
6. Zamfara.



Obi will win the election

Obi will score 25% in:
1. Imo
2. Abia
3. Enugu
4.Anambra
5. Ebonyi
6. Rivers
7. Crossrivers
8. Akwa ibom
9. Delta
10. Edo
12. Bayelsa
13. Lagos
14. Ogun
15. Ondo
16. Oyo
17. Nasarawa
18. Kaduna
19. Plateau
20. Benue
21. Taraba
22. Kogi
23. Adamawa
24. Ekiti
25.FCT

Tinubu will score 25% in.
1. Ogun
2. Oyo
3. Lagos
4. Ekiti
5. Osun
6. Ondo
7. Born
8. Zamfara
9. Kebbi
10. Kaduna.
11. Jigawa
12. Yobe
13. Kwara
14. Kogi
15. Niger
16. Nasarawa
17. FCT
18. Katsina
19. Sokoto

Atiku will score 25% in
1. Adamawa
2. Borno
3. Yobe.
4. Bauchi
5. Kano
6. Jigawa
7. Zamfara
8. Taraba
9. Gombe
10. Sokoto
11. Kebbi
13. Katsina
14. Benue
15. Niger
16. Kwara
17. Delta
18. Edo
19. Bayelsa
20. Nasarawa
21. Plateau


Kwankwaso will score 25% in
1. Kano
2. Katsina
3. Bauchi
4. Jigawa
5. Kebbi
6. Zamfara.



Obi will win the election

It's why he will lose

How can I reach him?

tammie24:
you suggest

it's ompss2 to bet from Abuja with someone in Lagos to avoid fraud. Unless a mod is willing to keep funds

CrownWale93:
Where is your location?

Lagos

It's as simple as that.
If he doesn't show us significant change in 2 years, he has started having problems with me

kaylardz:
Obi would have won the election but his party is not popular outside ss and se. And that will affect him in the west and North. He might not get 25% in more than three states outside ss and se. He can only get 25% in Lagos, Benue and maybe plateau.

Obi will win Benue, Plateau and Lagos.
Take it to the bank

Garfield1, and you think Tinubu will get 25% here?

tammie24:
no be bet?

Let's bet na

Distance should not be a problem

who go be middle man?

Ogufe sef no trust Tinubu

Work against am na, make them send you parking from senate

tammie24:
I'm in Abuja
I am willing to bet with you

Not possible frkm Abuja.

Abagworo:
Shoot the Igbos. Gbagbuo weh! All for imposition of politician not wanted by the people.

EOs, not Igbos.