₦airaland Forum

KingKO22:
The useless boy that can't stay in Anambra.
Instead of him to work hard to fix his dead career he is impressing his IPOB pigs from SadEast
Dead career turn Internet sensation
King of zombiediots

hisexcellency34:
Easy win for Arsenal, the best team in the world at the moment

osazsky:
A.c Milan dey craze o...chelsea way everybody dey win...this game just killed my erection for 1 month..I hope dey loose thier next Epl game so that my erection can come back on saturday .foolish Milan.. I am disappointed John and I am not eating again to night nonsense

AdamuKD:
Everybody knows that he's referring to the sick and corrupt Tilumbu
Thief

Durabest:
you don't know whats ahead of you.

Durabest:
na for inside your mama toto dem stay agree that it must be a southern christian?

Manchurians:
You will not be returned sir.. no matter how much giveaway you do for clout..

Ogun state is In a mess and as educated as you are, you are bereft of ideas and lack empathy.. because no right thinking person will leave the state in the dire state that it is even though it has the largest amount of industries in Nigeria.

Buckeyemedia1:
The irony, is that You with your supposed good health, may die before Bola Tinubu, I don’t know exactly what you are gloating over, or haven’t people younger than you passed away?

Buckeyemedia1:
Just the same way the comatose Yaradua came and won the election in front of your Mumurists?

chrisxxx:
Okowa is sacking someone that believes a meeting a read a communique. Okowa called a meeting of southern governors of PDP extraction and maintained that the presidency was due South. The same Okowa went back to negotiate for VP.

highchief1:
u r not a realist.how can u say that?don’t forget pll have benefitted from apc.what r u talking about?no matter how bad someone is he is always good to some ppl.I’m not in apc but u can’t say they will lose like that.there will win some areas.

Jobminister:
From your analysis, it is not very tight and too close to call..... Atiku will win based on your analysis.

Below is what you you analysed and put up there

From the entire North:

Atiku will get 50% + 38% + 33% = 121

Tinubu will get 33% +37% +33% = 103

Obi will get 32% + 25% + 15% = 72

Meaning Atiku will win from the North followed by Tinubu

From The entire South:

Atiku will get 35% + 30% + 20% = 85

Tinubu will get 15% + 20% + 50% = 85

Obi will get 50% + 50% +30% = 130

Meaning Obi will win the South, strictly followed by either Tinubu or Atiku with very small margin between them.

Now combining the two region North and South:

Atiku get 121 + 85 = 206
Tinubu get 103 + 85 = 188
Obi get 72 + 130 = 202

You can see that Atiku will emerge the winner without any issue based on your analysis.

Take note that the winning margin you gave Atiku in the North means a lot of vote considering the population in the North.

Tinubu or Obi can only win this 2023 election only if any of them can win the majority vote from the North.

The South is seriously divided, so no any candidate will get bloc votes and the winning margin for Obi might not be too large as you predicted. Tinubu get the SW, Obi get the SE while Atiku will share SS with Obi and the come second in both SW and SE.

So the winner from the North will emerge the winner of 2023 election.

Your analysis is somehow fair in my thinking!

Geesaintagape:
Ur analysis make sense not all the flock call Obidient.
I' don't believe in Nigeria but u are factual

highchief1:
what do u mean by a single local govt in south south?dsp will deliver the two ughelli to apc.that’s two local govts.no man born of a woman can with oshiomole local govt.that’s south south.u go just smoke weed finish jump enter online.

frank14011991:
The biggest masquerade always comes out last

BeardedMeat:
You people are using Jagaban to play ping pong

VTJN:
Tinubu has paid the price
He is the next president to succeed Buhari

bhella10:
Incoming CITY BOY

OsuIgboIpob:
Other a pack for your parents and all your other family members, I'll pay.

lhordspy:
Very true... It is more like Obi and Atiku fighting for their already 2019 joint votes. Tinubu is not affected a bit.

The number of new votes or should i say voters that is adding to the 2019 own .. Is just 1m+ newly registered voters, after INEC screened the double registration out.

Even if the 1m+ people are to vote for obi, which is practically impossible, add it to the number of Atiku/obi votes in 2019(which is impossible because Atiku already have the northern voters in his bag) ... It wont be enough to even win an election.

Incase you dont understand what am trying to say. Even if you join Obi votes presently + Atiku's vote + the 1m newly registered voters, it isnt still enough to defeat a certain Tinubu APC if going by the Last general election.

Why am refferring to the last general elections is because nothing changes, nothing have change. Except the rallies and supposedly '2million' match which we witness almost every seconds.

The same people engaging in rallies or supporting obi, never voted for APC 2019.

The same set of people feeling marginalised on religious bases, because of the muslim-muslim ticket will never vote for APC in 2019 too.

The same christian bodies antagonising muslim muslim ticket, Never supported Buhari 2019 also.

The same Afenifere, never supported APC 2019

The same South East, South south.. Are traditionally PDP voters, their votes never changes the outcome of 2019.

Infact some of the muslims voted Atiku/obi 2019, but this time arround with the present political situation where the campaign as been turned into religious one, religous sentiments have found it way in Nigeria politics now, those votes are going to APC this time.

Undecided voters in 2019 like me, who voted for Atiku/obi will never ever vote for any of them this time, why? Because of the aggressive way of the obidients followers. I know so many of us here that are on that line or should i say clinging to that excuse.

The south-west voted overwhelming for Atiku/obi 2019, not because of the love for Atiku or Obi but because we felt the pain of the failed First tenure of buhari then.. Even lagos was almost lost by APC even with Tinubu.
I feel my analysis is right here because those states lost by APC 2019 in southwest, was won by same APC governors during the governorship election except Oyo state which was narrowly lost.
Now, coming to 2023, i feels a tribal sentiment will play major role here, APC will win massively in south west. But what if APC lost, they lost Overall in the southwest in 2019 in the presidential election. It still never changes anything. APC STILL WON THE ELECTION. BUHARI WON.

So when you take all this into consideration, analyse it without religious sentiment or hatred for any candidate. IT DOESN'T CHANGES ANYTHING. Infact the antagonism. of the Buhari candidature we witness in 2019, was far far more than the Tinubu candidature upset we are witness now. Because the anger of Buhari's first tenure which was marred by gross incompetency, insecurities upset alot of people and it cut across all regions. Be it yoruba, hausa,igbo, egede, idoma, ebira... Just name it.. People were angry with his first tenure.
And after the election? I think we all know what happened - Buhari won again.

Some people are saying, the youth, the youth!. Do they PVc's? Alright fine, someone also came out to say they registered because of Obi this year.
Then they didnt turn out massively like we are been deceivedto believe, the number of newly registered voters justify my point. Just 1m+ (which am sure the youth cant have more than 50% of 1m+)

So in my opinion, it takes more more than this childish rallies, photoshopping Tinubu's picture in an irritating manner, or throwing of insult and jabs. We, when i mean we, i mean i included engage in all this for Atiku/obi 2019, Buhari still won.


By simple logic and permutation and the little knowledge i have about politics, TINUBU may not win next year general election, but APC WILL DEFINITELY WIN. And it will be by landslide JUST LIKE 2019.
BECAUSE NOTHING HAS CHANGED EXCEPT THAT OBI AND ATIKU ARE NOW SHARING THEIR VOTES.

TheNiceGuy:
Obi was Anambra Governor, how's Anambra People today?
Are they free of poverty, insecurity, unemployment, bad road and other lacking social amenities?
The question is for who had head to THINK.

OsuIgboIpob:
The problem with him is that, HE IS FROM A PIGGY TRIBE.

YOU CAN'T TRUST PIGS...

THEY ARE HATEFUL

INTOLERANT

PROUD

ARROGANT

and

CUNNY


Never trust a pig.

I'll rather support a so-called drug baron, agbado cassava old man than support a pig.

AyeMoJuba:
This can only happen in ur dreams and hallucination...Never again will an Igbo man allowed to rule this Nation

lhordspy:
100 people rally in a state with over 4m+ voters...

The joke is on you all

ImperialYoruba:
We dont care about whether you fail or not, we just dont want anything to do with ipob.

lhordspy:
The same governor of the western state, his people are calling the citizens Northern slaves?

All of a sudden, they now want alliance. Joker.

Meet the south-western state governors all you want, hug them, cuddles them, kiss their feet infact.

But if you get a combine 200 votes in the whole of ondo,ekiti,oyo,osun,ogun states combine then INEC should declare you winner.