FatherOfJesus:
If he can address the Wike camp, it will take God to stop him.

The truth is that, Tinubu cannot beat Atiku in northwest and northeast and Peter Obi will not do well there. Atiku is going to comfortably win these regions. Forget about the APC structure, A Yoruba man cannot beat a core northerner here, it’s not possible. These parts of the country has herd mentality, last figures proves that. It’s a winner takes all region and no splitting, especially in the northwest

Tinubu will not win much outside of southwest, kogi and Kwara. Tinubu will not win a single local government in southeast or south south. The southsouth has strong PDP structure and Its between Atiku and Peter obi.

In the Middle belt, Tinubu will perform well in kwara and kogi, Atiku will do well in Benue, nassarawa and Niger. Obi will do well in Abuja

In southeast, Obi will win while Atiku will be second. Tinubu May not win a polling unit here.

All the predictive analysis points to Atiku emerging victorious without any sentiments here.

Burruchaga71:
Those ppl will collect your money and vote for their choice . 2023 is not 2015.

zombieHUNTER:


You will be so surprised how Oshiomole will lose his polling unit, That's how you lots were beating your chest until you realized Edo isn't Lagos.

APc won't win a single polling unit in South south, mark my words

This Same Ruling APc , or is there another?..

Jobminister:


From your analysis, it is not very tight and too close to call..... Atiku will win based on your analysis.

Below is what you you analysed and put up there

From the entire North:

Atiku will get 50% + 38% + 33% = 121

Tinubu will get 33% +37% +33% = 103

Obi will get 32% + 25% + 15% = 72

Meaning Atiku will win from the North followed by Tinubu

From The entire South:

Atiku will get 35% + 30% + 20% = 85

Tinubu will get 15% + 20% + 50% = 85

Obi will get 50% + 50% +30% = 130

Meaning Obi will win the South, strictly followed by either Tinubu or Atiku with very small margin between them.

Now combining the two region North and South:

Atiku get 121 + 85 = 206
Tinubu get 103 + 85 = 188
Obi get 72 + 130 = 202

You can see that Atiku will emerge the winner without any issue based on your analysis.

Take note that the winning margin you gave Atiku in the North means a lot of vote considering the population in the North.

Tinubu or Obi can only win this 2023 election only if any of them can win the majority vote from the North.

The South is seriously divided, so no any candidate will get bloc votes and the winning margin for Obi might not be too large as you predicted. Tinubu get the SW, Obi get the SE while Atiku will share SS with Obi and the come second in both SW and SE.

So the winner from the North will emerge the winner of 2023 election.

Your analysis is somehow fair in my thinking!

Agboriotejoye:

garfield1:


If atiku wins the north,it will be by a razor thin margin.historically,the north votes for fanatics.bashir tofa lost to abiola up north,shagari struggled to win the north.1999 the north adopted falae yet obj won the north.tinubu will win the north or lose narrowly

How old are you? Some of you children just open your mouth waaaaaah and talk rubbish on the internet. Who gave you the information that north adopted falae in 1999 against obj It seems like you were born in the new millennium cos you write out of crass ignorance. Even a road side tout knows that Obasanjo was brought out from prison in 1999 by the northern cabals to win the election. It was PDM movement and the northern oligarchy that ensured that Obasanjo clinched the PDP ticket in 1999 against The late Ide of Oko (Alex Ekwueme). It was also the north and south east/south south that ensured that Obasanjo was elected in 1999 as a president. Afonjas have always hated Obasanjo and they voted massively against him in 1999. One of the reasons why his kinsmen hate him is that they believe an ibo man fathered him and he himself has never been known to play tribal based politics

highchief1:
u r not a realist.how can u say that?don’t forget pll have benefitted from apc.what r u talking about?no matter how bad someone is he is always good to some ppl.I’m not in apc but u can’t say they will lose like that.there will win some areas.

DrAkpamudehe:


Obidiiots will start cursing you after reading this thread even when the truth is spelt out

highchief1:
na so e be na.if pdp and lp can eat into Lagos that is bats base e come be delta.it’s going to be dicey elections.But I think OBIDIENTs are making noise.i don’t see Peter obi winning.but if he remains consistent after 2023 he may.But the problem with Nigerian politicians is inconsistency.

Efewestern:


Obi should endeavor to secure his home region with a wide margin. I can't write him off easily but realistically speaking, BAT's chances are quite higher when you consider various factors and permutations.

I'm observing the trend in my state and I know no single party will get 50% of the total votes cast. This was a state that once gave GEJ 90%.

SIRTee15:


First we talking about the fourth Republic. Abiola v Tofa election was the only time in Nigerian history when Nigerians actually voted as a Nigerian. Tribe and religion wasn't in consideration.
Tinubu's presidential campaign is already marred in deep tribalism and religious controversy before it took off. He will not be able to shake it off going into polls.
Second, Abiola was a larger than life person. Quite popular amongst the electorate irrespective of tribe or religion. An attribute not seen in Tinubu. Rather he's banking on his northern politician friends to do the Talakawa and almajiri magic for him.
Third, Abiola actually did well in the SE/SSregion and middle belt. He won delta, akwa ibom, cross River, Anambra, and Edo. He swept the whole of middle belt except kogi.
If Tinubu can pull half of such victory in those regions, then we won't be having this discussion in the first place.

BATified2023:
I believe u saw what tambuwal did to atiku during pdp primary?

I guess he also has one vote like u said?
U have to understand the meaning of influence in life n politics

Orji uzor kalu has one vote but he installed a governor in his state

tiger28:
I dont understand how many ppl like the OP think that Northerners cannot vote for a Southern President..........

If that is the case, then can someone explain

HOW OBJ won TWO terms?

HOW Jonathan won as well?

Strong Party structure and a viable Candidate that is NOT Just a regional Candidate are all it takes pls!

highchief1:
thanks bro.ppl are not realistic at all.even Obi knows it won’t be easy for him.Obi has destroyed pdp chances this is where bat has a chance.All the obidents noise is in the strong holds of pdp.

yemmit90:


Have you ever been to polling units before?

I am asking because you think they are daft to just give money without ensuring you vote for them. I am sorry it doesn't work that way, they usually have agents in markets leaders, articians leaders, youths leaders, women leaders, party members, etc that will collate the people names and promise them the money. The money is shows to them by leaders of the groups but they can't collect it until result are announced. All the leaders will be monitoring your movements at polling center to ensure non of their people talk to or collected money from other parties agents.

Another style they use is that, before they give you money, you must stylishly show your tump printed slip to a party agent sitting at strategy place at the poll. They also used this second method on ordinary people they casually meet on election day.

That is why I always laughed at people posting unrealistic permutations. Nigerians are too broke to reject 5k/10k for a vote that they feel amount to nothing to them. The party with solid structure and fund will eventually win next year election.

kcnwaigbo:

Stop lying.OBJ was the candidate of the North in 1999

highchief1:
what do u mean by a single local govt in south south?dsp will deliver the two ughelli to apc.that’s two local govts.no man born of a woman can with oshiomole local govt.that’s south south.u go just smoke weed finish jump enter online.

Efewestern:


Obi has already created a case for SE presidency, whatever the outcome of the election would be, he has already written his name in history.

Come to think of it, a repeat of 2019 would have been disastrous to BAT, man would have lost before the election day. Imagine facing a combo of both Atiku/Obi. LoL

Opinedecandid:



Op, you are NOT talking nonsense, unlike pundits and haters would claim.
This is reality, I have said it to many people who care to understand.

Peter Obi will only win in urban cities, even in some states, not all, and that won't make him win, overall.
Now in the South South, South East and South West rural communities, it will be totally vote buying between Atiku and Tinubu.

Whereas in the North East and North West, Atiku will not even need much of vote buying to win. Northern agenda on my mind.

Atiku leads.
If they like, let them hear.

Workch:
i am obidient, I am just being realistic

Workch:
i am obidient, I am just being realistic

jamace:
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Maobichek:


Good morning, Fulani is not minority, all the Emirs in the North, majority of the governors in the North, NNPC, CBN, etc Fulanis are in control. If you are in the North or close to the government, you will believe that Fulanis are not minority but in control.

If APC can fill Muslim/Muslim ticket and "some" Southerners are in full support of the arrangement, a Fulani can still succeed a Fulani. This is Nigeria, no fairness, no equity.

DrAkpamudehe:


You will soon load yourself into jail by being summoned to court to give evidence to these allegations. Be careful, the internet is not anonymous. I can easily trace you

asanausana91:
hell is waiting for you. Do you think Atiku is like Buhari that allows you guys to do anyhow?

Sonyboom765:
So power of incumbency as dissapperred now that it is Tinubu's turn.

FatherOfJesus:
If he can address the Wike camp, it will take God to stop him.

The truth is that, Tinubu cannot beat Atiku in northwest and northeast and Peter Obi will not do well there. Atiku is going to comfortably win these regions. Forget about the APC structure, A Yoruba man cannot beat a core northerner here, it’s not possible. These parts of the country has herd mentality, last figures proves that. It’s a winner takes all region and no splitting, especially in the northwest

Tinubu will not win much outside of southwest, kogi and Kwara. Tinubu will not win a single local government in southeast or south south. The southsouth has strong PDP structure and Its between Atiku and Peter obi.

In the Middle belt, Tinubu will perform well in kwara and kogi, Atiku will do well in Benue, nassarawa and Niger. Obi will do well in Abuja

In southeast, Obi will win while Atiku will be second. Tinubu May not win a polling unit here.

All the predictive analysis points to Atiku emerging victorious without any sentiments here.

Burruchaga71:
If Buhari who is an ex army General couldn't do anything then who is Atiku?