4teenblaq:


OBJ didn't win any NE and NW state except Adawama state. But he won all north central, SS, SW and SE.

GEJ didn't win any NE and NW state. He won few north centrals, lost two SW states and won both SE and SS....


the same thing will replicate next year, what peter obi needs is only SS, SE and get at least 25% from 13 states outside SS and SE

infact you should go and declare him

FatherOfJesus:
If he can address the Wike camp, it will take God to stop him.

The truth is that, Tinubu cannot beat Atiku in northwest and northeast and Peter Obi will not do well there. Atiku is going to comfortably win these regions. Forget about the APC structure, A Yoruba man cannot beat a core northerner here, it’s not possible. These parts of the country has herd mentality, last figures proves that. It’s a winner takes all region and no splitting, especially in the northwest

Tinubu will not win much outside of southwest, kogi and Kwara. Tinubu will not win a single local government in southeast or south south. The southsouth has strong PDP structure and Its between Atiku and Peter obi.

In the Middle belt, Tinubu will perform well in kwara and kogi, Atiku will do well in Benue, nassarawa and Niger. Obi will do well in Abuja

In southeast, Obi will win while Atiku will be second. Tinubu May not win a polling unit here.

All the predictive analysis points to Atiku emerging victorious without any sentiments here.

your analysis is based on sentiment. Tinubu will surely have poor show in the East not in the north. Tinubu's performance in the north central will be a fair one. Tinubu will Win bornu state, kastina state, yobe state, and Kaduna State. He is going to have good performance in other northern states apart from taraba state.

Nwaezehopr:
Atiku will definitely win the election because north is for him. No two ways about it

Only a foolish Northerner will vote for Atiku, who at best will only do one term in office.

Once beaten twice shy, Northerners will not fall for that Yaradua Jonathan trick again.

highchief1:
i don’t know o.but at some point in life a man has more than his vote.u can’t tell me ppl don’t listen to u.or ppl don’t believe in u.if that’s how u are living try and adjust.In my ward I can boast of over 500ppl that I can give instructions.

I know DSP will command votes for BAT, a lot is at stake for him and his loyalists but we can't deny the fact that LP & PDP will still eat into some of his strongholds most especially the Urban part of Ughelli. The rest are likely to fall for him.

The maximum LGA DSP can secure for his party in the general election in Delta state won't exceed 2/3.

To me I think Atiku has upper hands in north generally ( it’s Muslim dominated region and they also have herd mentality ). But based on say tinubu is a Muslim and also chose Muslim vice, so it might be a bit tougher for Atiku .
Tinubu will win southwest ,

Obi will beat anyone in southeast

South south always vote pdp so that might be a plus for Atiku although obi will also score a good point here ..





As it stands now , it’s very tough o

Svoboda:


Pls refer to the 1993 vote demographics btw abiola and tofa.

First we talking about the fourth Republic. Abiola v Tofa election was the only time in Nigerian history when Nigerians actually voted as a Nigerian. Tribe and religion wasn't in consideration.
Tinubu's presidential campaign is already marred in deep tribalism and religious controversy before it took off. He will not be able to shake it off going into polls.
Second, Abiola was a larger than life person. Quite popular amongst the electorate irrespective of tribe or religion. An attribute not seen in Tinubu. Rather he's banking on his northern politician friends to do the Talakawa and almajiri magic for him.
Third, Abiola actually did well in the SE/SSregion and middle belt. He won delta, akwa ibom, cross River, Anambra, and Edo. He swept the whole of middle belt except kogi.
If Tinubu can pull half of such victory in those regions, then we won't be having this discussion in the first place.

Buckeyemedia1:
What a naive way of thinking, quite obvious you are not into politics.

As long as the generals are alive, Obasanjo, Babaginda, Abdulsalem, Gusau, Abubakar Atiku can never be President of The Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Let's not delve into whether I am involved in politics or not, but just bear in mind that I was part of Tinubu's campaign train in 1998/1999 when he contested as Governor of Lagos state for his first term in office.

Back to Atiku, Obasanjo is one of the most powerful men alive in Nigeria today, and you think Tinubu is in his good books? And when they table his (BAT) matter at the meeting of Generals, he (Obasanjo) would support him?Your guess is as good as mine.

The other Generals are from Atiku's region, they can easily assuage OBJ and ask him to forget about the past or at least, play neutral, and don't forget, OBJ is a nationalist.

Buhari won the elections partly because of the input of these men, GEJ was a 'bloody civilian' who saw the handwriting on the wall and quickly did the needful.

Again, my opinion is that Buhari and his northern elites will not leave their own, to support a Yoruba man. Forget what they say, it's all pretence.

Let's not allow sentiments becloud our sense of judgement, so much that we see green and call it red.

An Aboki will always be an Aboki. They are loyal to themselves to the high heavens.

Efewestern:


I know DSP will command votes for BAT, a lot is at stake for him and his loyalists but we can't deny the fact that LP & PDP will still eat into some of his strongholds most especially the Urban part of Ughelli. The rest are likely to fall for him.

The maximum LGA BAT can get in Delta state won't exceed 3/4.

na so e be na.if pdp and lp can eat into Lagos that is bats base e come be delta.it’s going to be dicey elections.But I think OBIDIENTs are making noise.i don’t see Peter obi winning.but if he remains consistent after 2023 he may.But the problem with Nigerian politicians is inconsistency.

princdebola201:

PDP lost NW And NE region in 2003,2011,2015,2019.
But one drunkard thinks the traditional voting pattern will change when Atiku a politician that lost his own polling contest in 2023

It will be easier for APC to win SS region than pdp defeat Apc in core North.

PDP currently has only 4 govs in the entire 19 states Northern Nigeria, which miracle is featherweight atiku going to perform

bro before you analyze this there are some factors u need to consider.. performance of apc in Nigeria will affect their voting rate and shetimah is not a kanuri and they are minority in north the only way others tribes in the core north will consider in him is his religion

babyfaceafrica:


On twitter.. Yes!

4teenblaq:


OBJ didn't win any NE and NW state except Adawama state. But he won all north central, SS, SW and SE.

GEJ didn't win any NE and NW state. He won few north centrals, lost two SW states and won both SE and SS....


the same thing will replicate next year, what peter obi needs is only SS, SE and get at least 25% from 13 states outside SS and SE

GEJ lost only one state in SW and swept the whole of north central except Niger state. Your analysis is wrong.
Obi needs similar strong performance if he's to win next yr.

Sonyboom765:
The 1993 election was not help in Nigeria, it was held in Rwanda ba. Can Obi get 5% from any of the NW NC NE that you are hoping he gets 49%. Mr go sidown inside gutter abeg.

He will get it whether you hate or you hate it.
He must get it. #RemainOBIDIENT

Thank God for thinking !

[quote author=FatherOfJesus post=117244503]If he can address the Wike camp, it will take God to stop him.

The truth is that, Tinubu cannot beat Atiku in northwest and northeast and Peter Obi will not do well there. Atiku is going to comfortably win these regions. Forget about the APC structure, A Yoruba man cannot beat a core northerner here, it’s not possible. These parts of the country has herd mentality, last figures proves that. It’s a winner takes all region and no splitting, especially in the northwest

Tinubu will not win much outside of southwest, kogi and Kwara. Tinubu will not win a single local government in southeast or south south. The southsouth has strong PDP structure and Its between Atiku and Peter obi.

In the Middle belt, Tinubu will perform well in kwara and kogi, Atiku will do well in Benue, nassarawa and Niger. Obi will do well in Abuja

In southeast, Obi will win while Atiku will be second. Tinubu May not win a polling unit here.



Tinubu will not win a local government in the EASt, and when we say you people are tribalistic against the Yoruba, you will say NO. You just highlighted it here.

garfield1:


If atiku wins the north,it will be by a razor thin margin.historically,the north votes for fanatics.bashir tofa lost to abiola up north,shagari struggled to win the north.1999 the north adopted falae yet obj won the north.tinubu will win the north or lose narrowly

Oga, Falae was a SW candidate that formed alliance with APP. PDP was the candidate of the military establishment just as Abiola too was. You can't count those ones because they were transitional elections where the military had the larger say on the directions of the elections.

SIRTee15:


GEJ lost only one state in SW and swept the whole of north central except Niger state. Your analysis is wrong.
Obi needs similar strong performance if he's to win next yr.

This is a three or even four horse race.He does not need that much performance

highchief1:
make we Dey see na.there consequences to every action.if u lose ur unit u can’t come to me for assistance na.if ur wife born u go call who u vote for.we take record of electoral process sir

Nigeria have a long way to go.

asanausana91:
kwankwaso will tell his supporters to vote for Atiku a day before the election. If doubt me ask Tambuwal.

Yea but it might be too late. He will be on the ballot, some will do protest vote for NNPP and some that do not like Atiku will vote other parties and their votes in South will be shared by Obi and Tinubu

Workch:
i am obidient, I am just being realistic

No be only obidient..... pdp scam like u

Sonyboom765:
Tinubu will receive the similar % of vote MKO recorded that propelled him to victory in the SW. I don't want to say figures because that is open to distortion but %. He will have it n he will win every SW state every single one.

MKO lost Kogi Tinubu will win it outrightly. He should go n deal with the Northerners any how he likes I don't know much about that.

I agree Tinubu winning Kogi in land side but south west, I disagree. The muslim muslim ticket is his undoing plus most of the Sout west states are not purely yoruba people.

There is another factor not considered, many people that have never voted before will vote in 2023, I mean those that have voters card but never used it

God loves you....

Your analysis is spot on OP

Oyerinde16:
South east.

1. Obi --- 50%
2. Atiku-- 35%
3. Tinubu 15%.

South south.

1. Obi --- 50%
2.Atiku -- 30%
3. Tinubu 20%

South west.

1. Tinubu 50%
2. Obi ---- 30%
3. Atiku -- 20%

North central

1. Tinubu 35%
2. Atiku --- 33%
3. Obi ----- 32%

North west

1. Atiku -- 38%
2. Tinubu 37%
3. Obi ---- 25%

North east

1. Atiku --- 50%
2. Tinubu - 35%
3. Obi ------ 15%

Obi will get votes in the Norths cot cee of datti who happens to be a Zaria boy, young Nigerians over there.

Obi will get votes in the south west cot cee of young Nigerians.

Obi will get votes from the east and south south cos he is a son of the soil and SS see him as a brother.

Atiku will get votes from the North cos he his a son of the soil.

Atiku will get votes from the south south n south east cos the VP is SS and PDP has a good structure over there.

Atiku will get very small votes in the south west cos of tinubu strong hold and they only have Oyo state who is currently not with him.

Tinubu will get votes from the south west cos he his a son of the soil n that's his strong hold.

Tinubu will hardly see votes in the south east and south south, relying on oshomole n movie omoagege has no guarantee.

Tinubu will get votes from the north cos his VP is from there, then the APC controls most northern states.

Money will play a minor role among the extremely poor to swing votes.. Most youths have a mindset of collect n vote who u want, money may and may not back fire.

As it stands, its very tight and too early to call...

From your analysis, it is not very tight and too close to call..... Atiku will win based on your analysis.

Below is what you you analysed and put up there

From the entire North:

Atiku will get 50% + 38% + 33% = 121

Tinubu will get 33% +37% +33% = 103

Obi will get 32% + 25% + 15% = 72

Meaning Atiku will win from the North followed by Tinubu

From The entire South:

Atiku will get 35% + 30% + 20% = 85

Tinubu will get 15% + 20% + 50% = 85

Obi will get 50% + 50% +30% = 130

Meaning Obi will win the South, strictly followed by either Tinubu or Atiku with very small margin between them.

Now combining the two region North and South:

Atiku get 121 + 85 = 206
Tinubu get 103 + 85 = 188
Obi get 72 + 130 = 202

You can see that Atiku will emerge the winner without any issue based on your analysis.

Take note that the winning margin you gave Atiku in the North means a lot of vote considering the population in the North.

Tinubu or Obi can only win this 2023 election only if any of them can win the majority vote from the North.

The South is seriously divided, so no any candidate will get bloc votes and the winning margin for Obi might not be too large as you predicted. Tinubu get the SW, Obi get the SE while Atiku will share SS with Obi and the come second in both SW and SE.

So the winner from the North will emerge the winner of 2023 election.

Your analysis is somehow fair in my thinking!

FatherOfJesus:
the difference is the pattern of voting. Northeast and northwest will always vote a northerner irrespective of ruling party, election figures always proves so, they have herd mentality. Tinubu cannot beat Atiku there Go verify

Southsouth always vote PDP, go verify

You think Shettima can't deliver Borno and Yobe states for Tinubu?

SlavaUkraini:
Good Analysis... But

You are forgetting one name..

Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso

He is the Game changer for Atiku Abubakar in the North...

As Peter Obi may play Spoiler for Atiku Abubakar in the South,

RMK will surely play Spoiler for Tinubu in the North..

You are very correct �. He also forget Shettima factor especially in Borno and Yobe

Workch:
i am obidient, I am just being realistic

Who deceived you that Atiku will win in Benue State ?

Didi2d:


So, you're saying shettima won't give tinubu any advantage?

Non whatsoever, he is extremely unpopular in the North. Countless times residents in the North give accurate permutations like the OP and alot of the commenters but as always, folks in Lagos think that Eko is the center of Nigeria.

Ur analysis make sense not all the flock call Obidient.
I' don't believe in Nigeria but u are factual

highchief1:
what do u mean by a single local govt in south south?dsp will deliver the two ughelli to apc.that’s two local govts.no man born of a woman can with oshiomole local govt.that’s south south.u go just smoke weed finish jump enter online.

You will be so surprised how Oshiomole will lose his polling unit, That's how you lots were beating your chest until you realized Edo isn't Lagos.

APc won't win a single polling unit in South south, mark my words

This Same Ruling APc , or is there another?..

Geesaintagape:
Ur analysis make sense not all the flock call Obidient.
I' don't believe in Nigeria but u are factual

PDP won't see anything in South East and can only do a little better in South South..

Northern votes can't make Atiku president.. he has Kwakwanso to contend with, I'm glad he knows Obi can win Abuja , middle belt and will do a whole lot better in South West especially Lagos.

APC only pays N6k so you couldn't hold your end of the deal sadly.

Obi is leading in Lagos. Quote me in February

Sonyboom765:
If Peter Obi get 50K votes in any SW n NC states plus Kaduna n Kano I owe you 50,000 naira in cash

Prince111111:
PDP has always been favored in the SS even before APC was formed. PDP used to be favored in the North not until Buhari's CPC came on onboard. What the writer was implying is a Yoruba Man cannot influence the Northerners' conscience in voting.

how did obj win 2 terms?