We’ve heard lots of projections on when autonomous cars will
become available to the general public, and Google has already
logged more than 300,000 miles with its fleet of self-driving
Priuses. They still would cost as much as a Ferrari. However, that
will change as mainstream automakers such as General Motors
jump into the game .
Now scholars and researchers at the Institute of Electrical and
Electronics Engineers (IEEE) are not only predicting that
autonomous cars will make up 75 percent of vehicles on the road
by 2040, but they also forecast how this takeover by robo-cars will
have huge ramifications on infrastructure, personal mobility and
attitudes.
Alberto Broggi, IEEE senior member and professor of computer
engineering at the University of Parma in Italy, spoke with MSN
Autos and notes that building the infrastructure to accommodate
any form of intelligent transportation is often the biggest barrier to
widespread adoption. But he contends that autonomous cars will
need less infrastructure, not more, in some cases.
“More cars will fit on the same road, traffic will be less chaotic,
and therefore there will be no need to build more roads and
expand the road network,” says Broggi, who was the director of a
2010 project that saw two driverless cars successfully complete an
8,000-mile road trip from Parma to Shanghai.
A byproduct of increased and efficient traffic flow will be faster
speeds.
Dedicated lanes like those for carpool vehicles could be made
available for self-driving cars to streamline traffic. This new form
of dense traffic flow would also allow cars to travel more safely
while going faster, with closer gaps between them. In this
scenario, Broggi says that “speed limits of up to 100 mph are
absolutely possible by 2040.”
If all cars on the road are autonomous, according to IEEE traffic
lights and stops signs won't be necessary, since cars will be able
to communicate with one another to avoid crashing. “Intersections
will be equipped with sensors, cameras and radars that can
monitor and control traffic flow to help eliminate driver collisions
and promote a more efficient flow of traffic,” Broggi says. “The
cars will be operating automatically, thereby eliminating the need
for traffic lights.”
Driverless cars coupled with car sharing could also make personal
transportation available to a wider range of people, regardless of
age or physical ability. It could also dramatically alter whether
people even need a driver license. “People do not need a license
to sit on a train or a bus,” said Azim Eskandarian, director of the
IEEE’s Center for Intelligent Systems Research, in a statement. “In
a full-autonomy case in which no driver intervention will be
allowed, the car will be operating. So there will not be any special
requirements for drivers or occupants to use the vehicle as a form
of transportation, but the vehicles will obviously need many more
certifications and should meet new standards.”
The IEEE does acknowledge one barrier that technology can’t
solve: consumer acceptance. “Drivers and passengers are hesitant
to believe in the technology enough to completely hand over total
control,” says Jeffrey Miller, IEEE member and associate professor
of computer systems engineering at the University of Alaska-
Anchorage. But he added that drivers would slowly become
acclimated to the car taking control through driver-assist systems
such as parking assistance, automatic braking systems and
collision prevention that are now available and becoming more
common.
“Over the next 28 years,” Miller added, “use of more automated
technologies will spark a snowball effect of acceptance, and
driverless vehicles will dominate the road.”
http://editorial.autos.msn.com/blogs/autosblogpost.aspx?post=fd1dd24a-7eea-4a00-8a97-dd7c3aab7a1c |
