[size=13pt]A Pillar of Problems[/size]



Israel's Operation Pillar of Defense, after three days of air strikes on Hamas targets in Gaza, could be entering into a new phase of a larger ground invasion. While the war has been dissected six ways to Sunday, there are still gaping holes in our understanding of it, and several questions remain unanswered. Here are eight of them.

1. Was there an Israeli intelligence failure? There is reason to believe that the Israelis were surprised that so many Iranian-made Fajr-5 missiles had found their way into Gaza. Of course, the Israelis cannot account for every single item smuggled through the tunnels connecting the Sinai Peninsula to the Gaza Strip. And the Israelis appear to know exactly what they are hunting for. But the existence of these rockets -- which one senior Israeli intelligence official calls "game changers" -- is a red line for the Israelis. The very fact that they made it into Gaza without being intercepted or destroyed, and that some have subsequently been fired deep into Israeli territory, represents a failure on some level. This could prompt an official inquiry in Israel, where the brass put a premium on learning from mistakes.

2. Did Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt ever have a handle on Hamas? In recent months, Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt, all closely aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood, have drawn closer to Hamas, which is itself a splinter of that group. These three governments have, in one way or another, been working to politically rehabilitate the Islamist movement and integrate it into the new regional order of the Arab Spring. From all appearances, Washington tacitly approved of this; it certainly did not publicly oppose it. The assumption was that, in light of a precipitous drop in Iranian financing and Hamas' subsequent departure from its headquarters in Syria, the group was perhaps prepared to evolve into a more pragmatic entity. With this recent round of violence, and the use of Iranian long-range missiles, we can draw two broad conclusions: Either Hamas' new patrons are behind its latest violence, or they were blindsided by it. If the latter, did they ever have Hamas under control?

3. Did Iran ever relinquish its grip on Hamas? To put it another way, the reports of the demise of the Axis of Resistance (Iran-Syria-Hamas) may have been greatly exaggerated. The ties between Iran and Hamas' military apparatus, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, date back to the early 1990s, when Hamas trained in Sudan with Iranian cooperation and assistance. With the knowledge that Iranian Fajr-5 missiles made their way to Hamas, it is reasonable to wonder if Iran ever left the scene.

4. Did the Israelis target a cache of Fajr-5's in Sudan? Speaking of Sudan, it is widely believed that the Israeli Air Force targeted an Iranian weapons factory in Khartoum last month. Were the Israelis targeting Fajr-5 rockets there? Sudan has long been known to serve as a point of origin for Middle East smuggling routes delivering weapons to Gaza. After that operation, it is possible that Israel realized that a number of those "game-changer" missiles had already reached Gaza, suggesting the aforementioned intelligence failure. Was Gaza part two of a two-part operation that began in Sudan?

5. Will Hamas Upstage the PLO? Even with an arsenal of more lethal rockets in its possession, Hamas has no way of winning a war with Israel. If past is prologue, Hamas' leaders know that drawing Israel into conflict will elicit punishing reprisals. So why bother? One plausible explanation is that the war is just as much about Hamas' domestic arch-rivals, the PLO, as it is about Israel. The PLO is preparing to upgrade its mission at the United Nations later this month, and in the process, claiming to speak for the Palestinian people as a whole. This current round of violence steals the thunder of the PLO; has anyone even talked about the U.N. maneuver since this round of violence erupted? It also sends a pointed message: while the PLO concocts crafty legal schemes in New York, Hamas is doing battle with Israel in the name of the Palestinian cause. Was this the intended message? If so, Washington needs to be paying closer attention to what's happening on the ground.

6. Where's Washington? Despite long-standing tensions between President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the White House has come out in full support of the Israeli operation in Gaza, citing Israel's right to respond to the hundreds of rockets that Hamas and other jihadis have fired off in recent days. Admittedly, many administration officials appear to be in Asia right now, but the overall message is a green light for Israel. How long will this support last?

7. Will this impact the Israeli elections in January? Netanyahu detractors charge that the Israeli leader is using the operation in Gaza as a means of increasing voter support ahead of the upcoming elections. In reality, Bibi is the front-runner by a wide margin, and scarcely needs to rally the Israeli public around the flag. If anything, military missteps could weaken his position. As a shrewd student of Israeli politics, Bibi has undoubtedly been weighing the costs of the Gaza operation every step of the way. The Israeli voting public will tell him how he did in about two months' time.

8. Can a ceasefire last? On Friday, Israel's ambassador to Washington, Michael Oren, stated that the Israelis had knocked out most of the long-range missiles they were hunting, indicating that perhaps the primary mission had been accomplished. The Israelis say they want a ceasefire, even as they call up 75,000 ground troops. They say it all depends on Hamas halting the rocket fire. But even if the two primary actors agree, will the other factions in Gaza acquiesce? The Iran-sponsored Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Popular Resistance Committees, along with Salafi groups and even the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade -- a splinter of the secular Fatah faction under PLO leader Mahmoud Abbas -- have been firing rockets on a freelance basis. Will they continue to fire on Israel even if Hamas halts? If so, the conflict could last a lot longer.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/11/16/a_pillar_of_problems?page=0,0

This is an analysis that Stratfor sent me about the incident. Hamas started firing attacks into Israel, Israel was worried that Hamas would use its Fajr-5 rockets to attack Israel so they struck.

[size=13pt]Iran's Agenda in the Gaza Offensive[/size]




To begin to make sense of the escalating conflict in Gaza, we need to go back to the night of Oct. 23 in Khartoum. Around 11 p.m. that night, the Yarmouk weapons facility in the Sudanese capital was attacked, presumably by the Israeli air force. There were indications that Iran had been using this facility to stockpile and possibly assemble weapons, including anti-aircraft missiles, guided anti-tank missiles and long-range Fajr-5 rockets capable of reaching Tel Aviv and Jerusalem from Gaza.

One of the major drivers behind Israel's latest air and assassination campaign is its belief that Hamas has a large cache of long-range Fajr-3 and Fajr-5 rockets in its possession. Israel's primary intent in this military campaign is to deny Hamas the ability to use these rockets or keep them as a constant threat to Israel's population centers. This likely explains why in early October, when short-range rocket attacks from Gaza were still at a low level, Israeli officials began conditioning the public to the idea of an "inevitable" Israeli intervention in Gaza. Israel knew Hamas had these weapons in its possession and that it could require a war to eliminate the Fajr rocket threat. It began with the strike on the facility in Sudan, extended to the assassination of Hamas military commander Ahmad Jabari (the architect of the Fajr rocket program) and now has the potential to develop into an Israeli ground incursion in Gaza.

Analysis

Oct. 23 was not the first time Israel allegedly attacked weapons caches in Sudanese territory that were destined for Gaza. In January 2009, Israel allegedly carried out an airstrike against a weapons convoy northwest of Port Sudan heading to Gaza. The convoy included Fajr-3 rockets and was unusually large, with more than 20 trucks traveling north toward Gaza. The rushed shipment was allegedly arranged by Iran to reinforce Hamas during Operation Cast Lead. Iran was also exposed trying to smuggle weapons to Gaza through the Red Sea.

Though efforts were likely made to conceal the weapons cache at Yarmouk, it obviously did not escape Israeli detection. Hamas therefore took a major risk in smuggling the weapons to Gaza in the first place, perhaps thinking they could get away with it since they have been able to with less sophisticated weapons systems. Before Hamas responded to the Nov. 14 Jabari assassination, there were two major spates of rocket and mortar attacks over the past month. The first was Oct. 8-10 and the second was Oct. 22-24. When the decision was made to carry out these attacks, Hamas may not have known that Israel had detected the long-range Fajrs. Launching Grad and Qassam mortars may have been Hamas' attempt at misleading Israel into thinking that Hamas did not even have the Fajr rockets, because otherwise it would have used them. Hamas may have also erroneously assumed that launching mortars and short-range rockets, as it periodically does when the situation gets tense with Israel, would not lead to a major Israeli response.

By the time Israel attacked the Yarmouk facility, Hamas had to assume that Israel knew of the weapons transfer to Gaza. Hamas then quickly agreed to an Egyptian-mediated ceasefire Oct. 25. When attacks against Israel began picking up again around Nov. 10 -- including an anti-tank attack on an Israeli military jeep claimed by the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and several dozen more rocket attacks claimed by Palestinian Islamic Jihad and smaller Salafist-jihadist groups -- Hamas appeared more cautious, calling the main Gaza militant groups together on Nov. 12 to seek out another truce. By then, it was too late. They had already inadvertently provided the Israelis with the justification they needed to get public relations cover for their campaign to destroy Hamas' long-range rocket program.

Related reports you can access with the subscription: Considering an Israeli Ground Assault in Gaza Attacks Continue Along With Efforts To Mediate A Test of Hamas' Authority in Gaza On Nov. 14, Jabari was assassinated, and Hamas had to work under the assumption that Israel would do whatever it took to launch a comprehensive military campaign to eliminate the Fajr threat. It is at this point that Hamas likely resigned to a "use it or lose it" strategy and launched Fajr rockets toward Tel Aviv, knowing that they would be targeted anyway and potentially using the threat as leverage in an eventual attempt at another truce with Israel. A strong Hamas response would also boost Hamas' credibility among Palestinians. Hamas essentially tried to make the most out of an already difficult situation and will now likely work through Egypt to try to reach a truce to avoid an Israeli ground campaign in Gaza that could further undermine its authority in the territory.

In Tehran, Iranian officials are likely quite content with these developments. Iran needed a distraction from the conflict in Syria. It now has that, at least temporarily. Iran also needed to revise its relationship with Hamas and demonstrate that it retains leverage through militant groups in the Palestinian territories as part of its deterrence strategy against a potential strike on its nuclear program. Hamas decided in the past year that it was better off aligning itself with its ascendant parent organization, the Muslim Brotherhood, than remaining tethered to an ideological rival like Iran that was being put on the defensive in the region. Iran could still capture Hamas' attention through weapons sales, however, and may have even expected that Israel would detect the Fajr shipments.

The result is an Israeli military campaign in Gaza that places Hamas' credibility in question and could create more space for a group like the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which has close ties to Iran. The conflict will also likely create tension in Hamas' relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Jordan and Syria, since the Brotherhood, particularly in Egypt, is not prepared or willing to confront Israel beyond rhetoric and does not want to face the public backlash for not doing enough to defend the Palestinians from Israel Defense Forces. All in all, this may turn out to be a relatively low-cost, high payoff maneuver by Iran.

All said and done,
Iran is the puppet master, destabilizing the whole region,
They are the one propping up the regime of Assad in Syria and now pulling the strings of Hamas,
That's why the Americans are in full support of Israel
I sincerely hope Israel use this opportunity to silence Iran, once and for all!

Thanks for throwing more light on the stuffs happening @ the middle east. I think i understand better now

Israel is playing with fire by following the world opinion of doing it gentle. Another escalation is inevitable in not too distant future. In fours years time, Hamas will have smuggled in more weapons with better capabilities and the risk becomes more deadlier for Israel.

Israel needs to exact more damage to re-establish a true deterrence.

Prof Corruption: Israel is playing with fire by following the world opinion of doing it gentle. Another escalation is inevitable in not too distant future. In fours years time, Hamas will have smuggled in more weapons with better capabilities and the risk becomes more deadlier for Israel.

Israel needs to exact more damage to re-establish a true deterrence.

At what cost? Everything they do is being watched by neighbouring Arabic nations. If they take it too far they risk making it a wider conflict. Iran is the key. Only facing Iran directly will halt this.

Ultimately, I don't think a war with Iran is avoidable even if Israel retakes Gaza and then stringently controls the border with Egypt. Nuclear Iran will still change,completely, security calculus of the Middle East.

I dont think that most Arab league nations are fond of Iran. A war to curb Irans aggression might even be preferred.

This Palestinian situation is just a sideshow. Hamas and the palestinians will always be able to count on the emotions of the Arabnworld when things get tough.

Iran seems to be the terrorist of the world and may likely start the WW3, which may be religiously based and Islam versus everybody else! The rise in Islamic radicalism in Nigeria can not be far from Iran.

At one time last year, a container load of automatic rocket propelled grenades and launchers where intercepted on their way from Iran to Nigeria.

moderatorr: At one time last year, a container load of automatic rocket propelled grenades and launchers where intercepted on their way from Iran to Nigeria.

Thanks for reminding us!
Iran remains the only country hell bent on world domination.
I don't know whether you remember, it was after the discovery that we started having car bomb explosions?
Imagine such country ruled by mad mullahs having nuclear weapons?
Its quite unthinkable!
I pray Obama will give the green light for Israel to uproot out of the mountain, their nuclear plants.

these countries will end up destroying themselves......my only problem is so many innocent people will suffer.

there was also a mad hurricane today at the algarve portugal. then sandy. floods all over the world. wars and rumors of wars. i keep telling yall the lord is coming back real soon

dilbert100: these countries will end up destroying themselves......my only problem is so many innocent people will suffer.

innocent people dont die JOB 4 VS 7

iran hasnt attacked nor invaded any country yet but we see them as evil. while the US and isreal who are commiting war crimes arent doing evil. am trying to understand something here, is it that iran supporting hamas is wrong? and wat makes it wrong.? who are the largest suppliers of arms in world 2day? is it iran? my point is iran can supply hamass watever weapons hamass need just like US supplying isreal with arms. the isreal - palestine conflict didnt start 2day. hamass cant win the war for sure, like the nigerian adage goes, he who says his mother wont sleep, himself wont sleep.

#optimus prime voice#...'Kill dem all'

To me...i think part of isrealZ plan iz to tempt iran into d war..so dat dy wld ve reason to blow iranZ nuclear facility

Sometimes you may want to feel pity for Hamas but I tell you when you Google the amount of rocket they have thrown into Israel in 2012 alone, its more than 800. Now tell me why shouldn't Israel silence this people's government who think nothing else but war we have such people still living on this planet earth? Rocket lunchers and sophisticated weapons that was intercepted at the port in Lagos sometime ago were from Iran and the purpose was for Boko boys.

I dnt knw y israel like killing innocent soul 4 no reason, hmm iran will surely retaliate

na2day!:
All said and done,
Iran is the puppet master, destabilizing the whole region,
They are the one propping up the regime of Assad in Syria and now pulling the strings of Hamas,
That's why the Americans are in full support of Israel
I sincerely hope Israel use this opportunity to silence Iran, once and for all!

Dey jst cnt do dat if. So dey will. Aready destabiliz iran 4 long cos iran is also a powerfull country

This is propaganda of the highest order. Israel is the Terrorist nation in the Middle-East not Iran. Iran is being demonised for choosing to be independent of US and western domination, which they dropped 30 years ago. The war going on is between Israel and Palestine, not Hamas. Hamas won a demoncratic election just the way the extremist terrorist coalition won election in israel.

The real problem is not Iran, but the zionist refusal of Palestinian independence. Once the have their counyry with full (not shifting) land, sea and air boarders,there would be peace!

mmmustapha: I dnt knw y israel like killing innocent soul 4 no reason, hmm iran will surely retaliate

and ur brain is telling u dat israel is not using idea 2 tempt dem 2 join d war. U'l cry, u and ur muslim brodas will shed blood from d nose wen d time comes. Let iran retaliate na. i dey here 4 one bar to sip don simon and surely I must hear d news dat u strapped bomb all over U dey look 4 who 2 blast in nigeria here in solidarity 2 ur iranian brodas. Papa ibi

browncool: Sometimes you may want to feel pity for Hamas but I tell you when you Google the amount of rocket they have thrown into Israel in 2012 alone, its more than 800. Now tell me why shouldn't Israel silence this people's government who think nothing else but war we have such people still living on this planet earth? Rocket lunchers and sophisticated weapons that was intercepted at the port in Lagos sometime ago were from Iran and the purp
ose was for Boko boys.

Put yourself in Hamas's shoe and I bet you, more bombs would have been fired into Israel. Israel is illegally occupying their land, starving them with an embargo (siege) and you want them to lie down and die? If you live in Gaza, what would you do? Pls enlighten me because we always blame them for fighting for their right and property the way they know. Pls suggest a better way

obadiah777: there was also a mad hurricane today at the algarve portugal. then sandy. floods all over the world. wars and rumors of wars. i keep telling yall the lord is coming back real soon

Oh, come on!!

Isreal has no roots in the middle east.y'all turn a blind eye to isreal and keep on quoting "promise land" ,open ur eyes to the reality on ground.

Why bring the propaganda war on behalf of Israel to Nigeria? Don't we have enough issues ourselves? Only a fool believe everything a party to a conflict tell him. If you can answer these questions truthfully, you will identify who the aggressor and terrorist is. Is bombing another country not an act of war? Do any country have the right to attack another country without any reason? Israel bombed Sudan, Syrian, Jordan (bombed a site under construction they believe was a nuclear facility) Can any other country do that without the WHOLE world condeming it? Is a siege not an act of war? So how do you think you can starve people and they will not fight back? Even former Britain PM (Gordon Brown) called Gaza an open prison. How can you steal what belongs to another and the person know it is with you and you expect the person not to ask for it? Israel is demolishing Palestinians houses and building on their land. Israel attacked a civilian ship that was not carrying any weapon and killed 9 people. Is that not a terrorist act? Who is the terrorist? The country who assassinate people in hotel rooms and with drones in Their car or who is risking his life in resisting occupation? Wake up and condemn this barbaric act as you would if another country have done it

Can You Check matthew chapter 10 and mark 13 It has been prophesied Long Ago any way i day 4 my house They watch am 4 my Dstv

As a christian, you can't fool me, i know those destabilizing the peace in the middle east, they remain the land grabbers and the boastful Zionist who believe because they took over Canaan and Jericho, they have the right to trample upon any land they see.

Only scavengers steal and invade other people's properties.

I am still asking this question, Israel is counted as an European nation, yet the world sited them in the middle east, if this was not an act to make the world destabilized, why didn't the western nations site Israel in their own lands? America is very big, Canada too, why not relocate Israel to your own lands and let the Palestine be? why invade their lands and expect them to laugh with you.

I am waiting for someone here to tell me that Israel own that land.

mmmustapha: I dnt knw y israel like killing innocent soul 4 no reason, hmm iran will surely retaliate

{what are you trying to tell us, ah!, you want Isreal to keep quiet like Nigeria christians so that you arabians will see chance to blow of their head. } i trust the God of Isreal, you <arabian> wil surely meet waterloo.

The earlier you guys understand the meaning of jihad, the better. The koran gave an express command to exterminate christians and Jews.

mfm04622: Why bring the propaganda war on behalf of Israel to Nigeria? Don't we have enough issues ourselves? Only a fool believe everything a party to a conflict tell him. If you can answer these questions truthfully, you will identify who the aggressor and terrorist is. Is bombing another country not an act of war? Do any country have the right to attack another country without any reason? Israel bombed Sudan, Syrian, Jordan (bombed a site under construction they believe was a nuclear facility) Can any other country do that without the WHOLE world condeming it? Is a siege not an act of war? So how do you think you can starve people and they will not fight back? Even former Britain PM (Gordon Brown) called Gaza an open prison. How can you steal what belongs to another and the person know it is with you and you expect the person not to ask for it? Israel is demolishing Palestinians houses and building on their land. Israel attacked a civilian ship that was not carrying any weapon and killed 9 people. Is that not a terrorist act? Who is the terrorist? The country who assassinate people in hotel rooms and with drones in Their car or who is risking his life in resisting occupation? Wake up and condemn this barbaric act as you would if another country have done it

One among the few that really understand what's going on in the middle east, Israel/Palestine rift doesn't start yesterday & isn't about beliefs(religion) but about injustice & oppressions.

mfm04622:
Put yourself in Hamas's shoe and I bet you, more bombs would have been fired into Israel. Israel is illegally occupying their land, starving them with an embargo (siege) and you want them to lie down and die? If you live in Gaza, what would you do? Pls enlighten me because we always blame them for fighting for their right and property the way they know. Pls suggest a better way

It seem you are one of them, if not that both of you are lacking common sense, why can't them seek the judgement of icc